An Efficient Reliability-Based Optimization Method Utilizing High-Dimensional Model Representation and Weight-Point Estimation Method

The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the efficiency of RBDO algorithm,which hinders their application to high-dimensional engineering problems.To address these issues,this paper proposes an efficient decoupled RBDO method combining high dimensional model representation(HDMR)and the weight-point estimation method(WPEM).First,we decouple the RBDO model using HDMR and WPEM.Second,Lagrange interpolation is used to approximate a univariate function.Finally,based on the results of the first two steps,the original nested loop reliability optimization model is completely transformed into a deterministic design optimization model that can be solved by a series of mature constrained optimization methods without any additional calculations.Two numerical examples of a planar 10-bar structure and an aviation hydraulic piping system with 28 design variables are analyzed to illustrate the performance and practicability of the proposed method.

Predicting carbon storage of mixed broadleaf forests based on the finite mixture model incorporating stand factors,site quality,and aridity index

The diameter distribution function(DDF)is a crucial tool for accurately predicting stand carbon storage(CS).The current key issue,however,is how to construct a high-precision DDF based on stand factors,site quality,and aridity index to predict stand CS in multi-species mixed forests with complex structures.This study used data from70 survey plots for mixed broadleaf Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla forests in the Mulan Rangeland State Forest,Hebei Province,China,to construct the DDF based on maximum likelihood estimation and finite mixture model(FMM).Ordinary least squares(OLS),linear seemingly unrelated regression(LSUR),and back propagation neural network(BPNN)were used to investigate the influences of stand factors,site quality,and aridity index on the shape and scale parameters of DDF and predicted stand CS of mixed broadleaf forests.The results showed that FMM accurately described the stand-level diameter distribution of the mixed P.davidiana and B.platyphylla forests;whereas the Weibull function constructed by MLE was more accurate in describing species-level diameter distribution.The combined variable of quadratic mean diameter(Dq),stand basal area(BA),and site quality improved the accuracy of the shape parameter models of FMM;the combined variable of Dq,BA,and De Martonne aridity index improved the accuracy of the scale parameter models.Compared to OLS and LSUR,the BPNN had higher accuracy in the re-parameterization process of FMM.OLS,LSUR,and BPNN overestimated the CS of P.davidiana but underestimated the CS of B.platyphylla in the large diameter classes(DBH≥18 cm).BPNN accurately estimated stand-and species-level CS,but it was more suitable for estimating stand-level CS compared to species-level CS,thereby providing a scientific basis for the optimization of stand structure and assessment of carbon sequestration capacity in mixed broadleaf forests.

Predictive modelling of volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures modified with waste tire-derived char:A statistical neural network approach

The goals of this study are to assess the viability of waste tire-derived char(WTDC)as a sustainable,low-cost fine aggregate surrogate material for asphalt mixtures and to develop the statistically coupled neural network(SCNN)model for predicting volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures modified with WTDC.The study is based on experimental data acquired from laboratory volumetric and Marshall properties testing on WTDCmodified asphalt mixtures(WTDC-MAM).The input variables comprised waste tire char content and asphalt binder content.The output variables comprised mixture unit weight,total voids,voids filled with asphalt,Marshall stability,and flow.Statistical coupled neural networks were utilized to predict the volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures.For predictive modeling,the SCNN model is employed,incorporating a three-layer neural network and preprocessing techniques to enhance accuracy and reliability.The optimal network architecture,using the collected dataset,was a 2:6:5 structure,and the neural network was trained with 60%of the data,whereas the other 20%was used for cross-validation and testing respectively.The network employed a hyperbolic tangent(tanh)activation function and a feed-forward backpropagation.According to the results,the network model could accurately predict the volumetric and Marshall properties.The predicted accuracy of SCNN was found to be as high value>98%and low prediction errors for both volumetric and Marshall properties.This study demonstrates WTDC's potential as a low-cost,sustainable aggregate replacement.The SCNN-based predictive model proves its efficiency and versatility and promotes sustainable practices.

Modelling the Survival of Western Honey Bee Apis mellifera and the African Stingless Bee Meliponula ferruginea Using Semiparametric Marginal Proportional Hazards Mixture Cure Model

Classical survival analysis assumes all subjects will experience the event of interest, but in some cases, a portion of the population may never encounter the event. These survival methods further assume independent survival times, which is not valid for honey bees, which live in nests. The study introduces a semi-parametric marginal proportional hazards mixture cure (PHMC) model with exchangeable correlation structure, using generalized estimating equations for survival data analysis. The model was tested on clustered right-censored bees survival data with a cured fraction, where two bee species were subjected to different entomopathogens to test the effect of the entomopathogens on the survival of the bee species. The Expectation-Solution algorithm is used to estimate the parameters. The study notes a weak positive association between cure statuses (ρ1=0.0007) and survival times for uncured bees (ρ2=0.0890), emphasizing their importance. The odds of being uncured for A. mellifera is higher than the odds for species M. ferruginea. The bee species, A. mellifera are more susceptible to entomopathogens icipe 7, icipe 20, and icipe 69. The Cox-Snell residuals show that the proposed semiparametric PH model generally fits the data well as compared to model that assume independent correlation structure. Thus, the semi parametric marginal proportional hazards mixture cure is parsimonious model for correlated bees survival data.

A blast furnace fault monitoring algorithm with low false alarm rate:Ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model

The large blast furnace is essential equipment in the process of iron and steel manufacturing. Due to the complex operation process and frequent fluctuations of variables, conventional monitoring methods often bring false alarms. To address the above problem, an ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model(EGDPCA-GMM) is proposed in this paper. First, PCA-GMM is introduced to deal with the collinearity and the non-Gaussian distribution of blast furnace data.Second, in order to explain the dynamics of data, the greedy algorithm is used to determine the extended variables and their corresponding time lags, so as to avoid introducing unnecessary noise. Then the bagging ensemble is adopted to cooperate with greedy extension to eliminate the randomness brought by the greedy algorithm and further reduce the false alarm rate(FAR) of monitoring results. Finally, the algorithm is applied to the blast furnace of a large iron and steel group in South China to verify performance.Compared with the basic algorithms, the proposed method achieves lowest FAR, while keeping missed alarm rate(MAR) remain stable.

Soil-water characteristic surface model of soil-rock mixture

The relationship between the water content or saturation of unsaturated soils and its matrix suction is commonly described by the soilwater characteristic curve(SWCC).Currently,study on the SWCC model is focused on fine-grained soils like clay and silty soils,but the SWCC model for grinding soil-rock mixture(SRM)is less studied.Considering that the SRM is in a certain compaction state in the actual project,this study established a surface model with three variables of coupling compaction degree-substrate suction-moisture content based on the Cavalcante-Zornberg soil-water characteristic curve model.Then,the influence of each fitting parameter on the curve was analyzed.For the common SRM,the soil-water characteristic test was conducted.Moreover,the experimental measurements exhibit remarkable consistency with the mode surface.The analysis shows that the surface model intuitively describes the soil-water characteristics of grinding SRM,which can provide the SWCC of soils with bimodal pore characteristics under specific compaction degrees.Furthermore,it can reflect the influence of compaction degrees on the SWCC of rock-soil mass and has a certain prediction effect.The SWCC of SRM with various soil-rock ratios have a double-step shape.With the increase in compaction degree,the curves as a whole tend toward decreasing mass moisture content.The curve changes are mainly concentrated in the large pore section.

Identification of Mixtures of Two Types of Body Fluids Using the Multiplex Methylation System and Random Forest Models

Objective Body fluid mixtures are complex biological samples that frequently occur in crime scenes,and can provide important clues for criminal case analysis.DNA methylation assay has been applied in the identification of human body fluids,and has exhibited excellent performance in predicting single-source body fluids.The present study aims to develop a methylation SNaPshot multiplex system for body fluid identification,and accurately predict the mixture samples.In addition,the value of DNA methylation in the prediction of body fluid mixtures was further explored.Methods In the present study,420 samples of body fluid mixtures and 250 samples of single body fluids were tested using an optimized multiplex methylation system.Each kind of body fluid sample presented the specific methylation profiles of the 10 markers.Results Significant differences in methylation levels were observed between the mixtures and single body fluids.For all kinds of mixtures,the Spearman’s correlation analysis revealed a significantly strong correlation between the methylation levels and component proportions(1:20,1:10,1:5,1:1,5:1,10:1 and 20:1).Two random forest classification models were trained for the prediction of mixture types and the prediction of the mixture proportion of 2 components,based on the methylation levels of 10 markers.For the mixture prediction,Model-1 presented outstanding prediction accuracy,which reached up to 99.3%in 427 training samples,and had a remarkable accuracy of 100%in 243 independent test samples.For the mixture proportion prediction,Model-2 demonstrated an excellent accuracy of 98.8%in 252 training samples,and 98.2%in 168 independent test samples.The total prediction accuracy reached 99.3%for body fluid mixtures and 98.6%for the mixture proportions.Conclusion These results indicate the excellent capability and powerful value of the multiplex methylation system in the identification of forensic body fluid mixtures.

Latent Growth Mixture Modeling to Estimate Differential PTSD Trajectories and Associated Risk Factors in Psychiatric Staff Following Workplace Violence

Background: Workplace violence (WV) towards psychiatric staff has commonly been associated with Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). However, prospective studies have shown that not all psychiatric staff who experience workplace violence experience post-traumatic stress. Purpose: We want to examine the longitudinal trajectories of PTSD in this population to identify possible subgroups that might be more at risk. Furthermore, we need to investigate whether certain risk factors of PTSD might identify membership in the subgroups. Method: In a sample of psychiatric staff from 18 psychiatric wards in Denmark who had reported an incident of WV, we used Latent Growth Mixture Modelling (LGMM) and further logistic regression analysis to investigate this. Results: We found three separate PTSD trajectories: a recovering, a delayed-onset, and a moderate-stable trajectory. Higher social support and negative cognitive appraisals about oneself, the world and self-blame predicted membership in the delayed-onset trajectory, while higher social support and lower accept coping predicted membership in the delayed-onset trajectory. Conclusion: Although most psychiatric staff go through a natural recovery, it is important to be aware of and identify staff members who might be struggling long-term. More focus on the factors that might predict these groups should be an important task for psychiatric departments to prevent posttraumatic symptomatology from work.

Modeling Cyber Loss Severity Using a Spliced Regression Distribution with Mixture Components

Cyber losses in terms of number of records breached under cyber incidents commonly feature a significant portion of zeros, specific characteristics of mid-range losses and large losses, which make it hard to model the whole range of the losses using a standard loss distribution. We tackle this modeling problem by proposing a three-component spliced regression model that can simultaneously model zeros, moderate and large losses and consider heterogeneous effects in mixture components. To apply our proposed model to Privacy Right Clearinghouse (PRC) data breach chronology, we segment geographical groups using unsupervised cluster analysis, and utilize a covariate-dependent probability to model zero losses, finite mixture distributions for moderate body and an extreme value distribution for large losses capturing the heavy-tailed nature of the loss data. Parameters and coefficients are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Combining with our frequency model (generalized linear mixed model) for data breaches, aggregate loss distributions are investigated and applications on cyber insurance pricing and risk management are discussed.

Study on viscoelastic performance of asphalt mixture based on CAM model

In order to study the viscoelastic characteristics of asphalt mixtures in the whole-frequency range, a dynamic shearing rheometer is used to carry out dynamic frequency sweeps for asphalt mixtures, which obtains the three-dimensional relationships among G^＊, temperature and frequency. Then the time-temperature shift principle is used to translate the relationships from three dimensions to two dimensions, so master curves are obtained regarding dynamic modules changing along with the frequency over 15 amount levels. The Christensen- Anderson-Marasteanu （CAM） model, a kind of the rheological model, is used to analyze and compare rheological performances of several asphalt mixtures based on the obtained master curves. The results indicate that the dynamic theological test is an effective method for obtaining the master curve. Besides, the CAM model can describe well the viscoelastic deformation characteristics of asphalt mixtures.

Indirect tension test of epoxy asphalt mixtureusing microstructural finite-element model

A finite-element model of the thermosetting epoxy asphalt mixture（EAM） microstructure is developed to simulate the indirect tension test（IDT）.Image techniques are used to capture the EAM microstructure which is divided into two phases：aggregates and mastic.A viscoelastic constitutive relationship,which is obtained from the results of a creep test,is used to represent the mastic phase at intermittent temperatures.Model simulation results of the stiffness modulus in IDT compare favorably with experimental data.Different loading directions and velocities are employed in order to account for their influence on the modulus and the localized stress of the microstructure model.It is pointed out that the modulus is not consistent when the loading direction changes since the heterogeneous distribution of the mixture internal structure,and the loading velocity affects the localized stress as a result of the viscoelasticity of the mastic.The study results can provide a theoretical basis for the finite-element method,which can be extended to the numerical simulations of asphalt mixture micromechanical behavior.

Cascaded projection of Gaussian mixture model for emotion recognition in speech and ECG signals

A cascaded projection of the Gaussian mixture model algorithm is proposed.First,the marginal distribution of the Gaussian mixture model is computed for different feature dimensions, and a number of sub-classifiers are generated using the marginal distribution model.Each sub-classifier is based on different feature sets.The cascaded structure is adopted to fuse the sub-classifiers dynamically to achieve sample adaptation ability.Secondly,the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified on electrocardiogram emotional signal and speech emotional signal.Emotional data including fidgetiness,happiness and sadness is collected by induction experiments.Finally,the emotion feature extraction method is discussed,including heart rate variability, the chaotic electrocardiogram feature and utterance level static feature.The emotional feature reduction methods are studied, including principle component analysis,sequential forward selection, the Fisher discriminant ratio and maximal information coefficient.The experimental results show that the proposed classification algorithm can effectively improve recognition accuracy in two different scenarios.

Adaptive moving target detection algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model

In order to enhance the reliability of the moving target detection, an adaptive moving target detection algorithm based on the Gaussian mixture model is proposed. This algorithm employs Gaussian mixture distributions in modeling the background of each pixel. As a result, the number of Gaussian distributions is not fixed but adaptively changes with the change of the pixel value frequency. The pixels of the difference image are divided into two parts according to their values. Then the two parts are separately segmented by the adaptive threshold, and finally the foreground image is obtained. The shadow elimination method based on morphological reconstruction is introduced to improve the performance of foreground image＇s segmentation. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can quickly and accurately build the background model and it is more robust in different real scenes.

Gaussian mixture models for clustering and classifying traffic flow in real-time for traffic operation and management

Based on Gaussian mixture models（GMM）, speed, flow and occupancy are used together in the cluster analysis of traffic flow data. Compared with other clustering and sorting techniques, as a structural model, the GMM is suitable for various kinds of traffic flow parameters. Gap statistics and domain knowledge of traffic flow are used to determine a proper number of clusters. The expectation-maximization （E-M） algorithm is used to estimate parameters of the GMM model. The clustered traffic flow pattems are then analyzed statistically and utilized for designing maximum likelihood classifiers for grouping real-time traffic flow data when new observations become available. Clustering analysis and pattern recognition can also be used to cluster and classify dynamic traffic flow patterns for freeway on-ramp and off-ramp weaving sections as well as for other facilities or things involving the concept of level of service, such as airports, parking lots, intersections, interrupted-flow pedestrian facilities, etc.

EFFECTIVE IMAGE SEGMENTATION FRAMEWORK FOR GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL INCORPORATING LOCAL INFORMATION

A new two-step framework is proposed for image segmentation. In the first step, the gray-value distribution of the given image is reshaped to have larger inter-class variance and less intra-class variance. In the sec- ond step, the discriminant-based methods or clustering-based methods are performed on the reformed distribution. It is focused on the typical clustering methods-Gaussian mixture model （GMM） and its variant to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework. Due to the independence of the first step in its second step, it can be integrated into the pixel-based and the histogram-based methods to improve their segmentation quality. The experiments on artificial and real images show that the framework can achieve effective and robust segmentation results.

Gaussian mixture model clustering with completed likelihood minimum message length criterion

An improved Gaussian mixture model （GMM）- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the completed likelihood minimum message length criterion, is derived. It can measure both the goodness-of-fit of the candidate GMM to the data and the goodness-of-partition of the data. Secondly, by utilizing the proposed criterion as the clustering objective function, an improved expectation- maximization （EM） algorithm is developed, which can avoid poor local optimal solutions compared to the standard EM algorithm for estimating the model parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can rectify the over-fitting tendency of representative GMM-based clustering approaches and can robustly provide more accurate clustering results.

Viscoelastic model for asphalt mixture under repeated haversine load

The series-wound dashpot of the Burgers model is modified by introducing the strain hardening parameter, and the new model is considered as a combination of the modified dashpot and the Van Der Poel model. The cyclical pulse load consisting of a haversine load time and a rest period is adopted to simulate the actual vehicle load, and the permanent strain model under the repeated load is derived from the rheological and viscoelastic theories. Subsequently, the model is validated by the results of uniaxial repeated load permanent deformation tests of three asphalt mixtures. It is indicated that the proportion of residual viscoelastic strain to permanent strain decreases gradually with the load cycles, and only accounts for 2% to 3% during most of the loading period. If the rest period is long, the residual viscoelastic strain is little. The rest period of the actual vehicle load may be long enough, so the residual viscoelasticity can be ignored and the simplified model can be obtained. The proposed model can well describe the permanent deformation of asphalt mixtures under repeated load.

Robust state of charge estimation of lithium-ion battery via mixture kernel mean p-power error loss LSTM with heap-based-optimizer

The state of charge(SOC)estimation of lithium-ion battery is an important function in the battery management system(BMS)of electric vehicles.The long short term memory(LSTM)model can be employed for SOC estimation,which is capable of estimating the future changing states of a nonlinear system.Since the BMS usually works under complicated operating conditions,i.e the real measurement data used for model training may be corrupted by non-Gaussian noise,and thus the performance of the original LSTM with the mean square error(MSE)loss may deteriorate.Therefore,a novel LSTM with mixture kernel mean p-power error(MKMPE)loss,called MKMPE-LSTM,is developed by using the MKMPE loss to replace the MSE as the learning criterion in LSTM framework,which can achieve robust SOC estimation under the measurement data contaminated with non-Gaussian noises(or outliers)because of the MKMPE containing the p-order moments of the error distribution.In addition,a meta-heuristic algorithm,called heap-based-optimizer(HBO),is employed to optimize the hyper-parameters(mainly including learning rate,number of hidden layer neuron and value of p in MKMPE)of the proposed MKMPE-LSTM model to further improve its flexibility and generalization performance,and a novel hybrid model(HBO-MKMPE-LSTM)is established for SOC estimation under non-Gaussian noise cases.Finally,several tests are performed under various cases through a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the proposed HBO-MKMPE-LSTM model,and the results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid method can provide a good robustness and accuracy under different non-Gaussian measurement noises,and the SOC estimation results in terms of mean square error(MSE),root MSE(RMSE),mean absolute relative error(MARE),and determination coefficient R2are less than 0.05%,3%,3%,and above 99.8%at 25℃,respectively.

Failure behavior of soil-rock mixture slopes based on centrifuge model test

The stability of soil-rock mixtures(SRMs) that widely distributed in slopes is of significant concern for slope safety evaluation and disaster prevention. The failure behavior of SRM slopes under surface loading conditions was investigated through a series of centrifuge model tests considering various volumetric gravel contents. The displacement field of the slope was determined with image-based displacement system to observe the deformation of the soil and the movement of the block during loading in the tests. The test results showed that the ultimate bearing capacity and the stiffness of SRM slopes increased evidently when the volumetric block content exceeded a threshold value. Moreover, there were more evident slips around the blocks in the SRM slope. The microscopic analysis of the block motion showed that the rotation of the blocks could aggravate the deformation localization to facilitate the development of the slip surface. The high correlation between the rotation of the key blocks and the slope failure indicated that the blocks became the dominant load-bearing medium that influenced the slope failure. The blocks in the sliding body formed a chain to bear the load and change the displacement distribution of the adjacent matrix sand through the block rotation.

Establishment Method of a Mixture Model and Its Practical Application for Transmission Gears in an Engineering Vehicle

Highly versatile machines, such as wheel loaders, forklifts, and mining haulers, are subject to many kinds of working conditions, as well as indefinite factors that lead to the complexity of the load. The load probability distribution function （PDF） of transmission gears has many distributions centers; thus, its PDF cannot be well represented by just a single-peak function. For the purpose of representing the distribution characteristics of the complicated phenomenon accurately, this paper proposes a novel method to establish a mixture model. Based on linear regression models and correlation coefficients, the proposed method can be used to automatically select the best-fitting function in the mixture model. Coefficient of determination, the mean square error, and the maximum deviation are chosen and then used as judging criteria to describe the fitting precision between the theoretical distribution and the corresponding histogram of the available load data. The applicability of this modeling method is illustrated by the field testing data of a wheel loader. Meanwhile, the load spectra based on the mixture model are compiled. The comparison results show that the mixture model is more suitable for the description of the load-distribution characteristics. The proposed research improves the flexibility and intelligence of modeling, reduces the statistical error and enhances the fitting accuracy, and the load spectra complied by this method can better reflect the actual load characteristic of the gear component.