Geostatistical seismic inversion and 3D modelling of metric flow units,porosity and permeability in Brazilian presalt reservoir

Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.

Lg-Q model and its implication on high-frequency ground motion for earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan region

Low-rise buildings are susceptible to high-frequency ground motion.The high-frequency ground motions at regional distances are mainly controlled by crustal Lg waves whose amplitudes are typically much larger than those of body waves.In this study,we develop a Lg-wave Q model for the Sichuan and Yunnan region in the frequency band of 0.3–2.0 Hz using regional seismic records of 1166 earthquakes recorded at 152 stations.Comparison between the observed pattern of ground motion from real earthquake and model prediction demonstrates the robustness and effectiveness of our Lg-Q model.Then,assuming that the Lg-wave Q structure is the main factor affecting the propagation of the high-frequency ground motions,we calculate the spatial distributions of high-frequency ground motions from scenario earthquakes at different locations in the region using the average Lg-wave attenuation model over the frequency band of 0.3–2.0 Hz.We also use the Lg-Q model to estimate the distribution of cumulative energy of high-frequency ground motions based on the historical seismicity of the Sichuan and Yunnan region.Results show that the Lg-Q model can be used effectively in estimating the spatial distribution of high-frequency seismic energies and thus can contribute to the assessment of seismic hazard to low-rise buildings.

Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China

Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.

Kinematic deformation and intensity assessment of the 2021 Maduo M_(S)7.4 earthquake in Qinghai revealed by high-frequency GNSS

Rapid acquisition of the kinematic deformation field and seismic intensity distribution of large earthquakes is crucial for postseismic emergency rescue,disaster assessment,and future seismic risk research.The advancement of GNSS observation and data processing makes it play an important role in this field,especially the high-frequency GNSS.We used the differential positioning method to calculate the 1 HZ GNSS data from 98 sites within 1000 km of the M_(S)7.4 Maduo earthquake epicenter.The kinematic deformation field and the distribution of the seismic intensity by using the peak ground velocity derived from displacement waveforms were obtained.The results show that:1)Horizontal coseismic response deformation levels ranging from 25 mm to 301 mm can be observed within a 1000 km radius from the epicenter.Coseismic response deformation on the east and west sides shows bilateral asymmetry,which markedly differs from the symmetry presented by surface rupture.2)The seismic intensity obtained through high-frequency GNSS and field investigations exhibits good consistency of the scope and orientation in the high seismic intensity area,although the former is generally slightly smaller than the latter.3)There may exist obstacles on the eastern side of the seismogenic fault.The Maduo earthquake induced a certain tectonic stress loading effect on the western Kunlun Pass-Jiangcuo fault(KPJF)and Maqin-Maqu segment,resulting in higher seismic risk in the future.

The relationship between the high-frequency performance of supercapacitors and the type of doped nitrogen in the carbon electrode

Nitrogen doping has been widely used to improve the performance of carbon electrodes in supercapacitors,particularly in terms of their high-frequency response.However,the charge storage and electrolyte ion response mechanisms of different nitrogen dopants at high frequencies are still unclear.In this study,melamine foam carbons with different configurations of surfacedoped N were formed by gradient carbonization,and the effects of the configurations on the high-frequency response behavior of the supercapacitors were analyzed.Using a combination of experiments and first-principle calculations,we found that pyrrolic N,characterized by a higher adsorption energy,increases the charge storage capacity of the electrode at high frequencies.On the other hand,graphitic N,with a lower adsorption energy,increases the speed of ion response.We propose the use of adsorption energy as a practical descriptor for electrode/electrolyte design in high-frequency applications,offering a more universal approach for improving the performance of N-doped carbon materials in supercapacitors.

Dynamic Response of Foundations during Startup of High-Frequency Tunnel Equipment

The specialized equipment utilized in long-line tunnel engineering is evolving towards large-scale,multifunctional,and complex orientations.The vibration caused by the high-frequency units during regular operation is supported by the foundation of the units,and the magnitude of vibration and the operating frequency fluctuate in different engineering contexts,leading to variations in the dynamic response of the foundation.The high-frequency units yield significantly diverse outcomes under different startup conditions and times,resulting in failure to meet operational requirements,influencing the normal function of the tunnel,and causing harm to the foundation structure,personnel,and property in severe cases.This article formulates a finite element numerical computation model for solid elements using three-dimensional elastic body theory and integrates field measurements to substantiate and ascertain the crucial parameter configurations of the finite element model.By proposing a comprehensive startup timing function for high-frequency dynamic machines under different startup conditions,simulating the frequency andmagnitude variations during the startup process,and suggesting functions for changes in frequency and magnitude,a simulated startup schedule function for high-frequency machines is created through coupling.Taking into account the selection of the transient dynamic analysis step length,the dynamic response results for the lower dynamic foundation during its fundamental frequency crossing process are obtained.The validation checks if the structural magnitude surpasses the safety threshold during the critical phase of unit startup traversing the structural resonance region.The design recommendations for high-frequency units’dynamic foundations are provided,taking into account the startup process of the machine and ensuring the safe operation of the tunnel.

Review of the Analysis and Suppression for High-frequency Oscillations of the Grid-connected Wind Power Generation System

High-frequency oscillation(HFO)of gridconnected wind power generation systems(WPGS)is one of the most critical issues in recent years that threaten the safe access of WPGS to the grid.Ensuring the WPGS can damp HFO is becoming more and more vital for the development of wind power.The HFO phenomenon of wind turbines under different scenarios usually has different mechanisms.Hence,engineers need to acquire the working mechanisms of the different HFO damping technologies and select the appropriate one to ensure the effective implementation of oscillation damping in practical engineering.This paper introduces the general assumptions of WPGS when analyzing HFO,systematically summarizes the reasons for the occurrence of HFO in different scenarios,deeply analyses the key points and difficulties of HFO damping under different scenarios,and then compares the technical performances of various types of HFO suppression methods to provide adequate references for engineers in the application of technology.Finally,this paper discusses possible future research difficulties in the problem of HFO,as well as the possible future trends in the demand for HFO damping.

Efficient activation of the Co/SBA-15catalyst by high-frequency AC-DBD plasma thermal effects for toluene removal

Dielectric barrier discharge(DBD)plasma excited by a high-frequency alternating-current(AC)power supply is widely employed for the degradation of volatile organic compounds(VOCs).However,the thermal effect generated during the discharge process leads to energy waste and low energy utilization efficiency.In this work,an innovative DBD thermally-conducted catalysis(DBD-TCC)system,integrating high-frequency AC-DBD plasma and its generated thermal effects to activate the Co/SBA-15 catalyst,was employed for toluene removal.Specifically,Co/SBA-15 catalysts are closely positioned to the ground electrode of the plasma zone and can be heated and activated by the thermal effect when the voltage exceeds 10 k V.At12.4 k V,the temperature in the catalyst zone reached 261℃ in the DBD-TCC system,resulting in an increase in toluene degradation efficiency of 17%,CO_(2)selectivity of 21.2%,and energy efficiency of 27%,respectively,compared to the DBD system alone.In contrast,the DBD thermally-unconducted catalysis(DBD-TUC)system fails to enhance toluene degradation due to insufficient heat absorption and catalytic activation,highlighting the crucial role of AC-DBD generated heat in the activation of the catalyst.Furthermore,the degradation pathway and mechanism of toluene in the DBD-TCC system were hypothesized.This work is expected to provide an energy-efficient approach for high-frequency AC-DBD plasma removal of VOCs.

Effect of dry-wet cycles on dynamic properties and microstructures of sandstone:Experiments and modelling

Underground pumped storage power plant(UPSP)is an innovative concept for space recycling of abandoned mines.Its realization requires better understanding of the dynamic performance and durability of reservoir rock.This paper conducted ultrasonic detection,split Hopkinson pressure bar(SHPB)impact,mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP),and backscatter electron observation(BSE)tests to investigate the dynamical behaviour and microstructure of sandstone with cyclical dry-wet damage.A coupling FEM-DEM model was constructed for reappearing mesoscopic structure damage.The results show that dry-wet cycles decrease the dynamic compressive strength(DCS)with a maximum reduction of 39.40%,the elastic limit strength is reduced from 41.75 to 25.62 MPa.The sieved fragments obtain the highest crack growth rate during the 23rd dry-wet cycle with a predictable life of 25 cycles for each rock particle.The pore fractal features of the macropores and micro-meso pores show great differences between the early and late cycles,which verifies the computational statistics analysis of particle deterioration.The numerical results show that the failure patterns are governed by the strain in pre-peak stage and the shear cracks are dominant.The dry-wet cycles reduce the energy transfer efficiency and lead to the discretization of force chain and crack fields.

Modelling of internal ballistics of gun systems:A review

A deep understanding of the internal ballistic process and the factors affecting it is of primary importance to efficiently design a gun system and ensure its safe management. One of the main goals of internal ballistics is to estimate the gas pressure into the combustion chamber and the projectile muzzle velocity in order to use the propellant to its higher efficiency while avoiding over-pressure phenomena. Dealing with the internal ballistic problem is a complex undertaking since it requires handling the interaction between different constituents during a transient time lapse with very steep rise of pressure and temperature. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on different assumptions and techniques. Generally, depending on the used mathematical framework, they can be classified into two categories: computational fluid dynamics-based models and lumped-parameter ones. By focusing on gun systems, this paper offers a review of the main contributions in the field by mentioning their advantages and drawbacks. An insight into the limitations of the currently available modelling strategies is provided,as well as some considerations on the choice of one model over another. Lumped-parameter models, for example, are a good candidate for performing parametric analysis and optimisation processes of gun systems, given their minimum requirements of computer resources. Conversely, CFD-based models have a better capacity to address more sophisticated phenomena like pressure waves and turbulent flow effects. The performed review also reveals that too little attention has been given to small calibre guns since the majority of currently available models are conceived for medium and large calibre gun systems.Similarly, aspects like wear phenomena, bore deformations or projectile-barrel interactions still need to be adequately addressed and our suggestion is to dedicate more effort on it.

Effects of unilateral superimposed high-frequency jet ventilation on porcine hemodynamics and gas exchange during one-lung flooding

BACKGROUND Superimposed high-frequency jet ventilation(SHFJV)is suitable for respiratory motion reduction and essential for effective lung tumor ablation.Fluid filling of the target lung wing one-lung flooding(OLF)is necessary for therapeutic ultrasound applications.However,whether unilateral SHFJV allows adequate hemodynamics and gas exchange is unclear.AIM To compared SHFJV with pressure-controlled ventilation(PCV)during OLF by assessing hemodynamics and gas exchange in different animal positions.METHODS SHFJV or PCV was used alternatingly to ventilate the non-flooded lungs of the 12 anesthetized pigs during OLF.The animal positions were changed from left lateral position to supine position(SP)to right lateral position(RLP)every 30 min.In each position,ventilation was maintained for 15 min in both modalities.Hemodynamic variables and arterial blood gas levels were repeatedly measured.RESULTS Unilateral SHFJV led to lower carbon dioxide removal than PCV without abnormally elevated carbon dioxide levels.SHFJV slightly decreased oxygenation in SP and RLP compared with PCV;the lowest values of PaO_(2) and PaO_(2)/FiO_(2) ratio were found in SP[13.0;interquartile range(IQR):12.6-5.6 and 32.5(IQR:31.5-38.9)kPa].Conversely,during SHFJV,the shunt fraction was higher in all animal positions(highest in the RLP:0.30).CONCLUSION In porcine model,unilateral SHFJV may provide adequate ventilation in different animal positions during OLF.Lower oxygenation and CO_(2) removal rates compared to PCV did not lead to hypoxia or hypercapnia.SHFJV can be safely used for lung tumor ablation to minimize ventilation-induced lung motion.

Neuroprotective effects of subthalamic nucleus high-frequency stimulation on substantia nigra neurons in a Parkinson's disease rat model

BACKGROUND： Deep-brain stimulation has proven to be beneficial in the treatment of Parkinson＇s disease （PD） patients. OBJECTIVE： To investigate the effects of high-frequency stimulation （HFS） to the subthalamic nucleus （STN） on neuronal apoptosis and apoptosis-related gene expression in the substantia nigra pars compacta, and to analyze the neuroprotective effect of HFS-STN. DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING： Neuronal morphology experiments were performed in the Beijing Neurosurgical Institute from May to December in 2005. MATERIALS： Forty healthy, adult, Sprague Dawley rats were used to establish a PD model with a unilateral microinjection of 6-hydroxydopamine into two target areas of the right medial forebrain bundle. 6-hydroxydopamine was purchased from Sigma （USA）; high-frequency electrical stimulator was produced by World Precision Instruments （USA）; Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling （TUNEL） kit was a product of Nanjing Jiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. （China）; and Bcl-2 and Bax protein assay kit were purchased from Wuhan Boster Bioengineering Co., Ltd. （China）. METHODS： Forty rats were randomly divided into three groups. The stimulation group （n = 15） received HFS-STN on the day of PD modeling. The PD model group （n = 15） was used to establish the PD model. The control group （n = 10） was injected with normal saline containing 0.2 g/L ascorbic acid into two areas of the right medial forebrain bundle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES： Survival of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta was determined using Nissl staining. Apoptosis of dopaminergic neurons was detected using TUNEL techniques. Expression of anti-apoptotic protein, Bcl-2, and pro-apoptotic protein, Bax, were assayed by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS： Following 6-hydroxydopamine injection, the number of substantia nigra pars compacta neurons was reduced in the stimulation and PD model groups, compared to the control group. At 2 and 4 weeks post-surgery, the grey value of Nissl stained images was significantly less in the PD model and stimulation groups （P 〈 0.05）, and the stimulation group exhibited greater grey values compared to the model group （P 〈 0.05）. At 2 and 4 weeks post-surgery, the number of apoptotic neurons was significantly less in the stimulation group compared to the model group （P 〈 0.05）. In addition, Bcl-2 and Bax expression, as well as the Bcl-2/Bax ratio, was much higher in the stimulation group compared to the model group （P 〈 0.05）. CONCLUSION： HFS-STN has a neuroprotective effect on dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta of PD rats by promoting Bcl-2 expression, inhibiting Bax expression, and reducing the number of apoptotic dopaminergic neurons.

Therapeutic efficacy of methylprednisolone sodium succinate via diverse administration routes for mid-to high-frequency sudden sensorineural hearing loss

BACKGROUND Sudden sensorineural hearing loss(SSNHL),characterized by a rapid and unexplained loss of hearing,particularly at moderate to high frequencies,presents a significant clinical challenge.The therapeutic use of methylprednisolone sodium succinate(MPSS)via different administration routes,in combination with conventional medications,remains a topic of interest.AIM To compare the therapeutic efficacy of MPSS administered via different routes in combination with conventional drugs for the treatment of mid-to high-frequency SSNHL.METHODS The medical records of 109 patients with mid-to high-frequency SSNHL were analyzed.The patients were divided into three groups based on the route of administration:Group A[intratympanic(IT)injection of MPSS combined with mecobalamin and Ginkgo biloba leaf extract injection],Group B(intravenous injection of MPSS combined with mecobalamin and Ginkgo biloba leaf extract injection),and Group C(single IT injection of MPSS).The intervention effects were compared and analyzed.RESULTS The posttreatment auditory thresholds in Group A(21.23±3.34)were significantly lower than those in Groups B(28.52±3.36)and C(30.23±4.21;P<0.05).Group A also exhibited a significantly greater speech recognition rate(92.23±5.34)than Groups B and C.The disappearance time of tinnitus,time to hearing recovery,and disappearance time of vertigo in Group A were significantly shorter than those in Groups B and C(P<0.05).The total effective rate in Group A(97.56%)was significantly greater than that in Groups B and C(77.14%and 78.79%,χ^(2)=7.898,P=0.019).Moreover,the incidence of adverse reactions in Groups A and C was significantly lower than that in Group B(4.88%,3.03%vs 2.57%,χ^(2)=11.443,P=0.003),and the recurrence rate in Group A was significantly lower than that in Groups B and C(2.44%vs 20.00%vs 21.21%,χ^(2)=7.120,P=0.028).CONCLUSION IT injection of MPSS combined with conventional treatment demonstrates superior efficacy and safety compared to systemic administration via intravenous infusion and a single IT injection of MPSS.This approach effectively improves patients'hearing and reduces the risk of disease recurrence.

Hydrological Modelling of the Casamance River in Its Upstream Section (Basin at Kolda Level) to Predict Its Future States as a Function of Different Stresses

Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.

Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model

Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.

Numerical analysis of high‑speed railway slab tracks using calibrated and validated 3D time‑domain modelling

Concrete slabs are widely used in modern railways to increase the inherent resilient quality of the tracks,provide safe and smooth rides,and reduce the maintenance frequency.In this paper,the elastic performance of a novel slab trackform for high-speed railways is investigated using three-dimensional finite element modelling in Abaqus.It is then compared to the performance of a ballasted track.First,slab and ballasted track models are developed to replicate the full-scale testing of track sections.Once the models are calibrated with the experimental results,the novel slab model is developed and compared against the calibrated slab track results.The slab and ballasted track models are then extended to create linear dynamic models,considering the track geodynamics,and simulating train passages at various speeds,for which the Ledsgard documented case was used to validate the models.Trains travelling at low and high speeds are analysed to investigate the track deflections and the wave propagation in the soil,considering the issues associated with critical speeds.Various train loading methods are discussed,and the most practical approach is retained and described.Moreover,correlations are made between the geotechnical parameters of modern high-speed rail and conventional standards.It is found that considering the same ground condition,the slab track deflections are considerably smaller than those of the ballasted track at high speeds,while they show similar behaviour at low speeds.

Prospect Theory Based Individual Irrationality Modelling and Behavior Inducement in Pandemic Control

Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.

Experiment and constitutive modelling of creep deformation in the frozen silt-concrete interface

To ensure the long-term safety and stability of bridge pile foundations in permafrost regions,it is necessary to investigate the rheological effects on the pile tip and pile side bearing capacities.The creep characteristics of the pile-frozen soil interface are critical for determining the long-term stability of permafrost pile foundations.This study utilized a self-developed large stress-controlled shear apparatus to investigate the shear creep characteristics of the frozen silt-concrete interface,and examined the influence of freezing temperatures(−1,−2,and−5°C),contact surface roughness(0,0.60,0.75,and 1.15 mm),normal stress(50,100,and 150 kPa),and shear stress on the creep characteristics of the contact surface.By incorporating the contact surface’s creep behavior and development trends,we established a creep constitutive model for the frozen silt-concrete interface based on the Nishihara model,introducing nonlinear elements and a damage factor.The results revealed significant creep effects on the frozen silt-concrete interface under constant load,with creep displacement at approximately 2-15 times the instantaneous displacement and a failure creep displacement ranging from 6 to 8 mm.Under different experimental conditions,the creep characteristics of the frozen silt-concrete interface varied.A larger roughness,lower freezing temperatures,and higher normal stresses resulted in a longer sample attenuation creep time,a lower steady-state creep rate,higher long-term creep strength,and stronger creep stability.Building upon the Nishihara model,we considered the influence of shear stress and time on the viscoelastic viscosity coefficient and introduced a damage factor to the viscoplasticity.The improved model effectively described the entire creep process of the frozen silt-concrete interface.The results provide theoretical support for the interaction between pile and soil in permafrost regions.

Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate

Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.

Challenges in predictive modelling of chronic kidney disease:A narrative review

The exponential rise in the burden of chronic kidney disease(CKD)worldwide has put enormous pressure on the economy.Predictive modeling of CKD can ease this burden by predicting the future disease occurrence ahead of its onset.There are various regression methods for predictive modeling based on the distribution of the outcome variable.However,the accuracy of the predictive model depends on how well the model is developed by taking into account the goodness of fit,choice of covariates,handling of covariates measured on a continuous scale,handling of categorical covariates,and number of outcome events per predictor parameter or sample size.Optimal performance of a predictive model on an independent cohort is desired.However,there are several challenges in the predictive modeling of CKD.Disease-specific methodological challenges hinder the development of a predictive model that is cost-effective and universally applicable to predict CKD onset.In this review,we discuss the advantages and challenges of various regression models available for predictive modeling and highlight those best for future CKD prediction.