Assessing the Variability of Extreme Weather Events and Its Influence on Marine Accidents along the Northern Coast of Tanzania

The marine accidents are among the main components of the Zanzibar Disaster Management Policy (2011) and the Zanzibar Blue Economy Policy (2020). These policies aimed to institute legal frame works and procedures for reducing both the frequency of marine accidents and their associated fatalities. These fatalities include deaths, permanent disabilities and loss of properties which may result into increased poverty levels as per the sustainable development goal one (SDG1) which stipulates on ending the poverty in all its forms everywhere. Thus, in the way to support these Government efforts, the influence of climate and weather on marine accidents along Zanzibar and Pemba Channels was investigated. The study used the 10 years (2013-2022) records of daily rainfall and hourly wind speed acquired from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) (for the observation stations of Zanzibar, Pemba, Dares Salaam and Tanga), and the significant wave heights data, which was freely downloaded from Globally Forecasting System (GFS-World model of 13 km resolution). The marine accident records were collected from TASAC and Zanzibar Maritime Authority (ZMA), and the anecdotal information was collected from heads of quay and boat captains in different areas of Zanzibar. The Mann Kendal test, was used to determine the slopes and trends direction of used weather parameters, while the Pearson correlations analysis and t-tests were used to understand the significance of the underlying relationship between the weather and marine accidents. The paired t-test was used to evaluate the extent to which weather parameters affect the marine accidents. Results revealed that the variability of extreme weather events (rainfall, ocean waves and wind speed) was seen to be among the key factors for most of the recorded marine accidents. For instance, in Pemba high rainfall showed an increasing trend of extreme rainfall events, while Zanzibar has shown a decreasing trend of these events. As for extreme wind events, results show that Dar es Salaam and Tanga had an increasing trend, while Zanzibar and Pemba had shown a decreasing trend. As for the monthly variability of frequencies of extreme rainfall events, March to May (MAM) season was shown to have the highest frequencies over all stations with the peaks at Zanzibar and Pemba. On the other hand, high frequency of extreme wind speed was observed from May to September with peaks in June to July, and the highest strength was observed during 09:00 to 15:00 GMT. Moreover, results revealed an increasing trend of marine accidents caused by bad weather except during November. Also, results showed that bad weather conditions contributed to 48 (32%) of all 150 recorded accidents. Further results revealed significant correlation between the extreme wind and marine accidents, with the highest strong correlation of r = 0.71 (at p ≤ 0.007) and r = 0.75 (at p ≤ 0.009) at Tanga and Pemba, indicating the occurrence of more marine accidents at the Pemba channel. Indeed, strong correlation of r = 0.6 between extreme rainfall events and marine accidents was shown in Pemba, while the correlations between extremely significant wave heights and marine accidents were r = 0.41 (at p ≤ 0.006) and r = 0.34 (p ≤ 0.0006) for Pemba and Zanzibar Channel, respectively. In conclusion, the study has shown high influence between marine accidents and bad weather events with more impacts in Pemba and Zanzibar. Thus, the study calls for more work to be undertaken to raise the awareness on marine accidents as a way to alleviate the poverty and enhance the sustainable blue economy.

Crop Diversification in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers＇ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers＇ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events

The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate.Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics.As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia,Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic conditions.Considering the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions,it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time scales.Previous studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast growth.Thus,the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events.Moreover,the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different cases.Therefore,more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.

What determines irrigation efficiency when farmers face extreme weather events? A field survey of the major wheat producing regions in China

Water availability is a major constraint on grain production in China, therefore, improving irrigation efficiency is particularly important when agriculture faces extreme weather events. This paper first calculates irrigation efficiency with a translog stochastic frontier production function and then investigates what happens when extreme weather events occur via a Tobit model. The estimated results reveal several important features of irrigation practices: i) irrigation efficiency is lower when extreme weather events occur; ii) large variations in irrigation efficiency occur across irrigation facilities; iii) the farm plots exhibit an extreme distribution across efficiency levels; and iv) water-saving techniques, technology adoption, and the maintenance of farmers’ economic resilience are major determinants of irrigation efficiency. Based on these results we propose the following recommendations: i) farmers should balance crop yield and water use; undertake relevant training programs and adopt water-saving techniques; ii) local governments and researchers should help farmers to find the optimal level of irrigation water use based on their own circumstances and provide better water-saving techniques and training programs rather than simply encouraging farmers to invest in irrigation facilities in the most extreme weather years; and iii) the income level of farm households should be increased so as to improve their resilience to natural disasters.

Coordinating Preventive Strategies and Restoration under Extreme Weather Conditions

It has been well identified that the extreme events significantly impact the system operation. In this work, a comprehensive operating strategy, which coordinates the preventive strategies and system restoration, was proposed. A re-dispatch model that limits the potential loss under extreme events, as well as provides adequate resources for system restoration after the extreme events, was proposed. An optimal power flow based method was established to solve the proposed model. The availabilities of components and the remaining system due to the extreme events were restored by extending the EPRI’s System Restoration Navigator (SRN) with a little modification. Case studies demonstrate the proposed model and methods.

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

2023年中国气候异常特征及主要天气气候事件

2023年,我国气候主要表现为暖干的特征,全国平均气温10.71℃,较1991—2020年气候平均偏高0.82℃,为1951年以来最暖;全国平均降水量615.0 mm,较常年偏少3.9%,为2012年以来第二少。四季气温均较常年同期偏高,其中夏、秋季分别为历史同期次高和最高;除秋季降水偏多外,其余三季降水均偏少。汛期(5—9月),全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少4.3%,为2012年以来第二少,我国中东部降水总体呈“中间多南北少”的分布。2023年,我国区域性气象干旱多发,西南地区遭遇冬春连旱;春季北方沙尘天气过程偏多;夏季前期,华北和黄淮遭受1961年以来最强高温过程;7月底至8月初,受台风杜苏芮影响,京津冀地区发生历史罕见极端强降水过程,华北地区出现“旱涝急转”;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多;1月中旬发生年内最强寒潮过程;秋末冬初冷空气频繁入侵,12月华北和黄淮等地降雪日数偏多、积雪偏深。

中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。

位涡源汇和位涡环流及其天气气候意义

在扼要回顾地表位涡研究进展的基础上,本文介绍了复杂地形下的位涡及位涡制造的计算及近年来关于位涡源汇和位涡环流(PVC)的研究进展,侧重介绍青藏高原表层位涡的特殊性及其对天气气候的重要影响。阐明对于绝热和无摩擦大气运动,由于位涡本身的结构重组(位涡重构)可以引起垂直涡度的发展,在夏季可以激发高原涡形成,冬季使青藏高原东部成为重要的表面涡源。基于导得的包括非绝热加热作用的、与等熵面的位移相联系的垂直运动(ωID)方程,进一步阐明青藏高原制造的正位涡沿西风气流东传会引起下游地区低空气旋性涡度、偏南风、和上升运动发展,导致位涡平流随高度增加,激发极端天气气候事件发生发展。指出青藏高原地表加热和云底的潜热释放的日变化显著地影响着地表层位涡的日变化,导致青藏高原的低涡降水系统多在午后至夜间发生发展。证明与传统的青藏高原感热加热指数相比,青藏高原地表层位涡指数能够更好地刻画关于降水的季节变化,与亚洲夏季风降水相关更密切。本文还简单介绍了PVC的概念。指出由于区域边界面的PVC的辐散辐合的变化直接与区域位涡的变化相关联,为保持北半球位涡总量的相对稳定,跨赤道面上的PVC变化与地表PVC的变化必须相互补充,因此跨赤道面上的位涡环流的变化可以成为监测近地表气候变化的窗口。近赤道的海气相互作用能够直接造成沿赤道垂直面上的纬向风垂直切变的变化,激发跨赤道位涡环流异常,从而通过大气内部PVC的变化和青藏高原的调控影响北半球近地表的气候变化。结果表明位涡环流分析为建立热带和热带外大气环流变化的联系开辟了新的蹊径,有着广阔的应用前景。

近60 a中国极端天气气候事件变化趋势及2023年特征分析

对不同区域极端天气气候事件变化规律的研究,有助于提高我国防灾减灾能力和有效应对气候变化风险。利用我国均一化的2254个气象观测站逐日观测资料,分析评估近60 a和2023年我国及其各区域(未包含港澳台地区)发生的极端高温、极端低温、极端干旱、极端降水和极端台风等极端天气气候事件(简称“极端事件”)的时空特征。结果表明,1961年以来,我国极端事件总体呈下降趋势,其中1970—1990年代初下降趋势明显,1990年代后期以来增加趋势明显;极端高温事件呈显著增加趋势,进入21世纪后增加趋势更加明显;极端低温事件呈减少趋势;极端降水事件总体呈增加趋势;极端干旱事件呈下降趋势且阶段性特征明显;近60 a来受台风影响出现的极端风速和降水事件呈减少趋势,主要由极端台风风速事件减少造成,而极端台风降水事件呈缓慢上升趋势。2023年我国极端事件每站平均发生139次,比气候平均值偏多28.3%。其中,极端高温事件平均发生79次(偏多76.8%),为1961年以来历史最多年;极端低温事件平均发生20次(偏少23.8%);极端降水事件平均发生14次,极端干旱事件平均发生26次,都接近常年平均值;极端台风事件平均发生0.41次(偏多4.2%),主要以极端台风降水事件为主。2023年极端事件主要出现在西南地区、江南西部、华南西部、西北地区中部和北部、内蒙西部、京津冀等地,其中四川东部、贵州南部、甘肃西部、内蒙西部等地超过200次。极端事件增多的主要原因是极端高温事件和极端干旱事件增多。综合等级指数分析表明,极端事件高危险区域主要位于南方地区,特别是东南沿海地区,近60 a综合等级指数增加的区域主要位于西南地区到东北地区南部这个过渡带上。2023年高危险区域主要出现在西南地区和西北地区中北部。

2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。

北极—中纬度联系与北极海冰变化的关系研究新进展

本文概要介绍了近年来(2018~2023年),北极—中纬度联系与北极海冰变化的关系研究新进展。主要包括以下几个方面:(1)对北极海冰融化在欧洲极端降雪个例中的贡献有了实质性的认识,这是以往研究提出的北极海冰影响大气环流的机制所无法解释的。(2)冬季亚洲区域气温对北极海冰持续融化的响应有显著的低频振荡特征。北极海冰持续融化,有利于冬季暖北极—冷欧亚(2004/2005~2012/2013年)和暖北极—暖欧亚(2013/2014~2016/2017年)交替出现。前一阶段北极—中纬度联系加强,而暖北极—暖欧亚阶段北极与东亚的联系减弱了,但海冰融化影响北极—欧亚大陆联系强弱变化的机理不清楚。(3)在夏季平均和季节内时间尺度上,东亚中、低纬度区域夏季高温热浪极端天气事件与同期北极对流层中、低层冷异常有直接的动力联系。北极夏季对流层中、低层冷异常不仅有利于减缓北极海冰融化,而且成为预测后期东亚冬季风趋势的前兆因子。(4)北极夏季海冰融化异常,对我国华北以南区域夏季降水并无实质性影响。(5)尽管诸多研究强调了平流层—对流层相互作用,在连接北极海冰融化与中纬度天气气候中起重要作用,但因果联系依然偏弱,不确定性大于对流层过程。(6)区分北极海冰强迫与大气内部变率在天气事件和气候变率中的不同作用已无实际意义。未来关注北极海冰融化的影响,更应注重其在大气环流低频变化中的作用,以及北极海冰异常空间分布差异和不同异常振幅的影响,同时需要定量化研究北极海冰融化在极端天气和气候事件中的作用。

1986-2015年极端降水指标变化及其对中国草地植被物候的影响

研究我国草地植被生长季始期及末期对极端降水事件变化的响应是理解区域陆地生态系统生产力历史和未来变化机制的关键。本文利用草地、物候和极端降水数据,辅以Sen趋势分析和Pearson相关分析法研究了1986-2015年我国不同极端降水指标变化趋势及其对草地物候影响。结果表明,(1)我国极端降水事件的水量和强度都有显著增加的趋势,从空间分布来看,西部特别是西北地区有较明显增长。(2)草地植被生长季始期与长时序低温事件、持续干旱事件和极端强降水事件之间有显著相关性。(3)草地植被生长季末期与极端强降水,长时序极端干旱、湿润之间具有显著相关性。此研究对科学分析极端降水变化及其对植被物候的影响,促进植被生态恢复,制定行之有效的防灾减灾措施、构建稳定的生态屏障具有指导意义。

中国西南地区寒潮避风港现象与气候康养资源分析

近年来,受全球气候变化大背景的影响,寒潮等极端天气气候事件的发生频次或强度不断增加,加之国家应对人口老龄化各项政策的逐步落实,越来越多的北方老年候鸟人群冬季到我国华南和西南地区进行避寒旅居康养;随着国家全民大健康战略实施力度的加大,此热潮方兴未艾。因此,有针对性地探究我国境内的寒潮避风港现象,既是大气科学的重要科学问题,又是避寒康养的现实需求,具有重要科学价值和民生意义。基于此,本文初步梳理了2022年11月至2023年12月中旬期间,影响我国大范围地区的数次寒潮或强冷空气活动天气过程,东西部比较后,率先发现我国西南地区、特别是川南滇北交汇区具有“寒潮避风港”现象,尤其是攀枝花地区在寒潮天气过程中能够保持气温相对稳定,日均气温变化幅度较小;与周边其他城市相比较,大部分情况下攀枝花地区的气温波动最小,变化幅度也最小。据此本文做了一点成因方面的粗浅探究,初步分析了其避寒康养气候等资源优势与挖掘潜力,其深层次的成因及其避寒康养效应与价值更值得后续深入研究。

Coastal hypoxia response to the coupling of catastrophic flood,extreme marine heatwave and typhoon:a case study off the Changjiang River Estuary in summer 2020

Massive bodies of low-oxygen bottom waters are found in coastal areas worldwide,which are detrimental to coastal ecosystems.In summer 2020,the response of coastal hypoxia to extreme weather events,including a catastrophic flooding,an extreme marine heatwave,and Typhoon Bavi,is investigated based on multiple satellite,four cruises,and mooring observations.The extensive fan-shaped hypoxia zone presents significant northward extension during July-September 2020,and is estimated as large as 13 000 km^(2) with rather low oxygen minimum(0.42 mg/L) during its peak in 28-30 August.This severe hypoxia is attributed to the persistent strong stratification,which is indicated by flood-induced larger amount of riverine freshwater input and subsequent marine heatwave off the Changjiang River Estuary.Moreover,the Typhoon Bavi has limited effect on the marine heatwave and coastal hypoxia in summer 2020.

西北干旱区荒漠戈壁两次极端沙尘事件的对比研究

为深入理解极端沙尘暴事件的演变过程和驱动因子,结合多源卫星遥感及再分析数据,挑选2007年3月31日(“3·31”事件)和2021年3月14日(“3·14”事件)爆发于西北干旱区荒漠戈壁的两次沙尘暴事件,对比分析了其时空演变、高低空环流配置、近地面气象要素的变化。结果表明:(1)两次极端事件分别爆发于塔克拉玛干沙漠及戈壁荒漠,均受高低层天气系统影响。其中,“3·31”事件受地面冷锋和高空脊控制,脊前西北冷空气与地面冷锋引起的垂直运动配合,将沙尘往下游输送;而“3·14”事件则受蒙古气旋和高空槽影响,气旋后的偏北风和气旋引发的垂直运动将沙尘卷起至高层大气,并通过槽后西北风将其往下游输送;(2)两次极端沙尘事件均有持续时间长的特点,区别在于“3·31”事件主要受高压脊、均压场和周边地形影响,大气层结稳定,沙尘不易沉降和输送,而“3·14”事件则因中国北部持续性高压导致的偏南风和偏东风阻止了沙尘向下游扩散;(3)两次极端沙尘事件爆发前,塔克拉玛干和戈壁荒漠均出现了高温、降水减少及土壤水分枯竭现象,即强风和干燥土壤。为极端沙尘事件的爆发创造了有利的动力条件和物质基础。

灾害性空间天气事件预警分级探讨

灾害性空间天气事件包括太阳耀斑、太阳质子事件、磁暴、高能电子暴和电离层暴等。准确有效的预报预警信息有助于及时采取措施以避免或减少损失。当前国内空间天气预报总体水平不高,不同空间天气事件的预报预警业务成熟度具有较大差别,业务规范性有待提高。文章在分析空间天气事件的特征和影响,以及现有服务和相关研究的基础上,对灾害性空间天气事件及其预警分级规范进行讨论,并在以下几方面提出建议:基于多环境要素综合判别空间天气事件;建立涵盖内外源扰动的电离层暴指数;适应现行监测能力和业务实时性,基于自主探测数据适用性分析建立预报预警规范;细化专业用户分类,按需设计保障产品。

2022年夏季湖南气候异常特征及主要气象灾害简析

利用2022年6—8月湖南省97个气象站点的气温和降水量实况数据以及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料等,分析2022年夏季湖南省出现的异常气候现象及其时空分布特征和环流形势.结果表明:6月中纬度西风带低压槽活跃,湖南省在前期一直受强降水的影响,7—8月西太平洋的副热带高压西段异常加强(脊点偏西约50个经度),是造成2022年夏季湖南省气候异常的主要影响因子.

气候变化对园艺作物生产的影响

近年来随着极端天气事件频率和强度的增加,对园艺作物的生长、产量和品质都造成了不同程度的影响。该文通过综述和分析文献资料,基于气候变化中气温升高、降水变化、极端天气事件增加等情况,探讨相关因素对园艺作物的生长发育和产量稳定性的影响,以及气候变化对园艺作物生长环境中土壤水分、温度、光照等因素的变化对不同作物的适应性和产量的影响及当前研究的不足,总结应对气候变化的关键策略并提出未来研究的方向,如优化种植结构、调整栽培措施、采用抗逆性强的品种、改善耕作管理等措施,以提高园艺作物对气候变化的适应能力和生产稳定性,并不断开发更加适应性强的新品种、建立全面有效的气候调控技术体系等,通过综合利用技术手段和管理措施,可以有效减轻极端天气对园艺作物生产的影响,保障农业生产的稳定性和可持续发展。