Zoning Evaluation of Hourly Precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to 2022.The rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning evaluation.The results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light precipitation.It underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration events.The China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the island.It overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight periods.The simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed data.The China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of frequency-intensity.It underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early morning.Notably,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

Numerical Simulations of Intense Meiyu Rainfall in 1991 over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Valleys by a Regional Climate Model with p-σ Incorporated Coordinate System

Based on the primitive equation model with p- σ incorporated coordinate system originally developed by Qian et al., a one-way nested fine mesh limited area model is developed. This model is nested with ECMWF T42 data to simulate the extra-intensive rainfall event occurring in the Changjiang and Huaihe River valleys in summer of 1991. The results show that the model has certain capacity to fairly reproduce the regional distribution and the movement of the main rainfall belts. Therefore it can be used as a regional climate model to simulate and predict the short-range regional climate changes.

SIMULATION OF SUMMER CLIMATE IN CHINA DURING 1997 AND 1998 USING A REGIONAL AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL

Using the regional air-sea coupled climate model RegCM3-POM,a series of numerical experiments are performed to simulate the summer climate in 1997 and 1998 with different coupling time steps.The results show that the coupled model has good performance on the simulation of the summer sea surface temperature(SST) in 1997 and 1998,and the simulation results of CPL1(with the coupling time step at 1 hour) are similar to those of CPL6(with the coupling time step at 6 hours).The coupled model can well simulate SST differences between 1997 and 1998.As for the simulation of the drought in 1997 and the flood in 1998,the results of CPL6 are more accurate.The coupled model can well simulate the drought in 1997 over North China,and compared with the results of the atmosphere model RegCM3,the simulation ability of the coupled model is improved.The coupling model has better ability in the simulation of the circulation in the middle and low levels,and the water vapor transportation in the coupling model is reasonable in both 1997 and 1998.RegCM3(an uncoupled model) cannot correctly simulate the transportation path differences between 1997 and 1998,but the coupled model can simulate the differences well.

Numerical Forecasting of Icing on Structural Components of Offshore Platforms in Polar Regions

The Polar Regions are rich in natural resources but experience an extremely cold climate.The surfaces of offshore platforms operating in the Polar Regions are prone to icing.To develop solutions to this problem of surface icing,the influence of both the liquid water concentration of the surrounding atmosphere and the average water droplet diameter on the formation of ice on two major structural components of offshore platforms was analyzed using a combination of Fluent and FENSAP-ICE.Results showed that at a wind speed of 7 m/s,as the concentration of liquid water in the air increases from 0.05 to 0.25 g/m3,the amount and thickness of the icing on the surfaces of the two structural components increase linearly.At a wind speed of 7 m/s and when the size of the average water droplet diameter is 20–30(30–35)μm,as the average water droplet diameter increases,the amount and thickness of the icing on the surfaces of the two structural components increase(decrease)gradually.

‘Initial’ Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

In this study,the effects of ‘initial’ soil moisture(SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations(denoted as CTL),a series of sensitivity experiments were conducted,including the DRY and WET experiments,in which the simulated ‘initial’ SM over the region 30 –50°N,75 –105°E was only 5% and 50%,and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL,respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased,the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL,the latent(sensible) heat flux there increases(decreases),and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially,the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease,geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addition,the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature,the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate,and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere,which needs further investigation.

A Framework of Massively Parallel Analysis of Regional Earthquake Activities

Recent rapid progress in cyberinfrastructure in geosciences is providing seismologists an enormous boost for addressing multi-physical phenomena of regional seismic activities. The inherent nature of their multi-scale properties, from temporal to spatial spaces, makes it inevitably to be solved using large-scale computations and distributed parallel data processing schemes. Under such circumstance, using the advanced numerical algorithms and unstructured mesh generation technologies become the obstacles for modern seismologists. The main objective of this paper is to present a framework, which includes a parallel finite element simulation and distributed data infrastructure, to address the novel algorithms, state-of-the-art modeling and their implementation in regional seismicgenic systems. We also discuss and implement this framework to analyze the strong earthquake evolution processes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. This study is the key to long-term seismic risk by estimates, providing a platform for predictive large-scale numerical simulation modeling of regional earthquake activities.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF INFLUENCE OF THE SSTA IN WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FLOOD PERIOD IN SOUTH CHINA

A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.

Preliminary Model Study for Forecasting a Hot Weather Process in Guangdong Province Using CMA-TRAMS

In this paper, the CMA-TRAMS tropical high-resolution system was used to forecast a typical hot weather process in Guangdong, China with different horizontal resolutions and surface coverage. The results of resolutions of 0.02° and 0.06° were presented with the same surface coverage of the GlobeLand30 V2020, companies with the results of resolution 0.02° with the USGS global surface coverage. The results showed that, on the overall assessment the 2 km model performed better in forecasting 2 m temperature, while the 6 km model was more accurate in predicting 10 m wind speed. In the evaluation of representative stations, the 2 km model performed better in forecasting 2 m temperature and 2 m relative humidity at the coastal stations, and the 2 km model was also better in forecasting 2 m pressure at the representative stations. However, the 6 km model performed better in forecasting 10 m wind speed at the representative stations. Furthermore, the 2 km model, owing to its higher horizontal resolution, presented a more detailed stratification of various meteorological field maps, allowing for a more pronounced simulation of local meteorological element variations. And the use of the surface coverage data of the GlobeLand30 V2020 improved the forecasting of 2 m temperature, and 10 m wind speed compared to the USGS surface coverage data.

Numerical Experiments on the Spin-up Time for Seasonal-Scale Regional Climate Modeling

In this paper, the numerical experiments on the issue of spin-up time for seasonal-scale regional climate modeling were conducted with the newly Regional Climate Model （RegCM3）, in the case of the abnormal climate event during the summer of 1998 in China. To test the effect of spin-up time on the regional climate simulation results for such abnormal climate event, a total of 11 experiments were performed with different spin-up time from 10 days to 6 months, respectively. The simulation results show that, for the meteorological variables in the atmosphere, the model would be running in “climate mode” after 4-8-day spin-up time, then, it is independent of the spin-up time basically, and the simulation errors are mainly caused by the model＇ s failure in describing the atmospheric processes over the model domain. This verifies again that the regional climate modeling is indeed a lateral boundary condition problem as demonstrated by earlier research work. The simulated mean precipitation rate over each subregion is not sensitive to the spin-up time, but the precipitation scenario is somewhat different for the experiment with different spin-up time, which shows that there exists the uncertainty in the simulation to precipitation scenario, and such a uncertainty exhibits more over the areas where heavy rainfall happened. Generally, for monthly-scale precipitation simulation, a soin-uo time of 1 month is enough, whereas a spin-up time of 2 months is better for seasonal-scale one. Furthermore, the relationship between the precipitation simulation error and the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon was analyzed. It is found that the variability of correlation coefficient for precipitation is more significant over the areas where the summer monsoon is predominant. Therefore, the model＇s capability in reproducing precipitation features is related to the heavy rainfall processes associated with the advancement/withdrawal of East Asian summer monsoon, which suggests that it is necessary to develop a more reliable parameterization scheme to capture the convective precipitation of heavy rainfall pro- cesses associated with the activities of East Asian summer monsoon, so as to improve the climate modeling over China.

A NUMERICAL MODEL OF FLOW FIELD AND WATER QUALITY FOR TIDAL REGIONS BASED ON TRIANGULAR MESHES

In tidal areas, natural land boundary is complex and underwater topographyvaries acutely due to influence of upstream runoff and outer tide. The simulation and forecast ofwater current and mass transport play an important role in practical engineering. According to thesituation of irregular natural boundaries in tidal region, unsturctured triangular grid arrangementis applied to suit for complex conditions. A finite difference method with alternating directionalimplicit scheme for triangular grid is established in this paper. The model has been applied incalculation of flow and concentration fields for Nantong reach of the Yangtze River. It is satisfiedthat the calculated values are in agreement with observed data.

Comparison of satellite-estimated and model-forecasted rainfall data during a deadly debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China

The data of several rainfall products, including those estimated from satellite measurements and those forecasted via numerical weather modeling, for a severe debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China, are compared and analyzed in this paper. The satellite products, including CPC MORPHing technique（CMORPH）, TMPA-RT, and PERSIANN are all near-real-time retrieved with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The numerical weather model used in this paper for precipitation forecasting is WRF. The results show that all three satellite products can basically reproduce the rainfall pattern, distribution, timing, scale, and extreme values of the event, compared with gauge data. Their temporal and spatial correlation coefficients with gauge data are as high as about 0.6, which is statistically significant at 0.01 level. The performance of the forecasted results modeled with different spatial resolutions are not as good as the satellite-estimated results, although their correlation coefficients are still statistically significant at 0.05 level. From the total rainfall and extreme value time series for the domain, it is clear that, from the grid-to-grid perspective, the passive microwave-based CMORPH and TRMM products are more accurate than the infrared-based PERSIANN, while PERSIANN performs very well from the general point of view, especially when considering the whole domain or the whole convective precipitation system. The forecasted data — especially the highest resolution model domain data — are able to represent the total or mean precipitation very well in the research domain, while for extreme values the errors are large. This study suggests that satellite-retrieved and model-forecasted rainfall data are a useful complement to gauge data, especially for areas without gauge stations and areas not covered by weather radars.

Simulation and Analysis of China Climate Using Two-Way Interactive Atmosphere-Vegetation Model (RIEMS-AVIM)

In this paper, an Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model （AVIM） is coupled to the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS）, and a 10-year integration for China is performed using the RIEMS-AVIM. The analysis of the results of the 10-year integration shows that the characters of the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over China are well simulated. The patterns of simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes match well with the spatial climatological atlas： the values of winter surface sensible and latent heat fluxes are both lower than climatological values over the whole country. Summer surface sensible heat flux is higher than climatological values in western China and lower in eastern China, while summer surface latent heat flux is higher than climatological values in the eastern and lower in the western. Seasonal variations of simulated temperature and precipitation of RIMES-AVIM agree with those of the observed. Simulated temperature is lower than the observed in the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China for the whole year, slightly lower in the remaining regions in winter, but consistent with the observed in summer. The simulated temperature of RIEMS-AVIM is higher in winter and lower in summer than that of RIEMS, which shows that the simulated temperature of RIEMS-AVIM is closer to the observed value. Simulated precipitation is excessive in the first half of the year, but consistent with the observed in the second half of the year. The simulated summer precipitation of RIEMS-AVIM has significant improvement compared to that of RIEMS, which is less and closer to the observed value. The interannual variations of temperature and precipitation are also fairly well simulated, with temperature simulation being superior to precipitation simulation. The interannual variation of simulated temperature is significantly correlated with the observed in Northeast China, the Transition Region, South China, and the Tibetan Plateau, but the correlation between precipitation simulation and observation is only significant in Northwest China.

Groundwater Utilisation for Energy Production in the Nordic Environment: An Energy Simulation and Hydrogeological Modelling Approach

Groundwater provides one option to utilise renewable energy sources. The long-term groundwater energy potential for three building complexes, situated at latitude of 64°, was investigated by combining an energy demand simulation for the buildings with hydrogeological modelling. First, a reference year for the building energy demand was created. Secondly, groundwater flow requirements were calculated. The results of the previous stages were utilised in groundwater heat transport modelling in an environment where the natural temperature of groundwater was 4.9°C. Finally, the long-term (50 years) groundwater energy potential was calculated. The groundwater maintained its heating potential during 50 years of operation. When both heating and cooling power were demanded, the long-term pumping rate of groundwater decreased by 60,000 m3/a. Energy utilisation created a cold groundwater plume downstream, in which the temperature decreased by 1 to 2.5°C within a distance of 300 m from the site. Groundwater can provide a long-term energy source for large building complexes in the Nordic climate. Results indicate that groundwater could effectively be utilised until the temperature reaches approximately 4°C. Accurate information on the building energy demand and hydrogeology is essential for successful operation.

特高海拔寒区隧道温度场演化规律——以黑恰隧道工程为例

为研究特高海拔寒区隧道温度场的时空分布特征及其变化规律,以青藏高原西北部喀喇昆仑高山区的黑恰隧道为依托工程,首先,在现场建立包括气象要素在内的寒区隧道远程自动监测系统,对特高海拔寒区隧道温度场演化规律进行分析研究;其次,提出考虑湍流对流传热和热传导作用下的隧道三维数值模型,利用现场监测数据验证该模型的准确性;最后,讨论铺设保温层前后隧道温度场的变化特性。研究结果表明:1)在距进口0~270 m隧道受到冻融作用影响,洞内气温与衬砌温度呈线性正相关关系;2)隧道洞内气温对隧道径向温度场的影响主要体现在衬砌和浅层围岩;3)在最冷月平均气温方面,不同类型寒区隧道温度大小关系为特高海拔<高纬度<高海拔,在最大冻结深度方面,不同类型寒区隧道最大冻结深度大小关系为特高海拔>高纬度>高海拔;4)铺设保温隔热层后,保温层对衬砌与围岩起到良好的保温作用。

基于水热平衡的分布式水文模型研究与应用

分布式水文模型在水利部“四预”建设中发挥了至关重要的作用,但无径流资料区(简称无资料区)分布式水文模拟技术仍需进一步完善。从水热循环产汇流理论、模型构建与求解、模型参数率定三个方面入手,改进传统分布式水文模型。提出了耦合热量平衡的流域产汇流理论,揭示了水量热量动力学过程耦合机理和水热循环通量量化关系。构建了系统完整的物理机制水热平衡分布式水文模型及其数值求解方法,实现了流域地表温度和水位的分布式数值模拟。明确了模型结构和参数的物理意义,降低了需要率定的参数个数。将参数率定目标由径流量转换为地表温度和水位,综合利用遥感反演和台站观测资料率定模型参数。将研发的模型在江西赣江流域进行应用,结果表明,构建的模型具有较强的物理机制,数值求解方法精度高、稳定性好,实现了无资料区参数率定和水文模拟,为无资料区分布式水文模型研发与应用提供了新思路。

寒旱区温度效应下土壤水盐运移多因素耦合理论研究进展

土壤盐碱化是一个全球性问题,严重制约着农业发展,了解水盐运移规律是改善和预防土壤盐碱化的关键。在寒冷干旱地区农田非耕作期,土壤水盐运移规律主要受冻融作用的影响,而冻融循环下正负温交替对土壤水盐的迁移起到了决定性作用。基于冻融循环作用,从正、负温度效应入手,综述了水-热-气-力-盐耦合等一系列研究成果,分析了正、负温度驱动力的产生及数值模型与试验研究的发展,并在此基础上展望了变化环境条件下土壤盐碱化研究未来的发展方向。盐碱地是世界上最重要的后备耕地资源之一,合理、科学地利用盐碱地,对盐渍土进行改良,防止土壤进一步盐碱化,显得尤为重要。改良盐碱地在农业发展中凸显了节水、生态、低能耗的趋势。研究不同条件下土壤盐分演变的驱动机制和生态调控机制,对改善土壤盐分具有重要意义。

层间离缝对市域铁路新型装配式轨道力学性能影响

针对市域铁路路基地段新型装配式轨道层间离缝病害,建立可考虑轨道结构各部件复杂相互作用关系的列车-轨道-路基耦合分析模型,从静力和动力的角度研究自密实混凝土层与底座板之间存在不同离缝工况时对轨道结构力学响应。研究结果表明:当离缝长度未超过0.85 m时,轮轨垂向力、列车垂向加速度等轨道结构的动力响应指标变化较为平缓,离缝长度一旦超过0.85 m,各指标的变化量迅速增加,其中对列车垂向加速度、轨道板的动力效应影响最大。当离缝宽度未发展到钢轨下方时,各指标变化量很小,一旦超过钢轨下方,各项指标呈现指数增长变化趋势。离缝的存在严重影响了车辆运行的平稳性和安全性以及轨道结构的耐久性和整体性,需要及时进行养护维修。

积雪对多年冻土区埋地管道周围温度场影响的数值模型研究

积雪对下伏活动层、融区和多年冻土管基的水热和水文状态影响很大,同时对其力学性质和冻融灾害的发展变化也可产生重要影响。本文以中俄原油管道基础为研究对象,建立了随积雪深度动态变化时,在管道运行和有冰水相变条件下的埋地管道与周围管基土热相互作用的数值模型。研究结果表明,同一区域不同上边界条件对冻土温度场影响差异较大,尤其是当上边界条件中考虑实际的积雪影响时,会极大地影响管基土温度场的分布和活动层厚度。在30年管道运行影响下,地表有雪和无雪条件下的最大融化深度分别达到6.32 m和5.39 m,并且冬季积雪的存在导致土体温度上升,加剧了管基土的融化,导致管道正下方融化层不断增厚;有雪条件下地表0.05 m和1.00 m埋深处每次达到的地温最小值比无雪条件下高4.5℃和2.4℃左右,每年达到地温最小值时间也比无雪条件延缓10 d左右。因此,建议在管道设计和维运时充分考虑积雪对管基土的影响,采取相应管护措施,减小管道和积雪共同作用时对管周土体的影响。

Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.

青藏高原东侧复杂地形区极端降水研究进展

青藏高原东侧地形地貌多变,海拔高度起伏剧烈,陡峭而复杂地形下极端降水带来的气象灾害与地质次生灾害直接威胁着高原与下游地区,且这种独特的地形与地理位置,为极端降水的研究带来了巨大挑战。围绕青藏高原东侧复杂地形区极端降水,对近10 a降水数据观测分析新方法、极端降水气候演变特征和协同机制、云-降水物理特征及预报模拟和气候预估等方面取得的新进展进行了回顾,并就高原复杂地形区极端降水研究今后值得关注和思考的科学问题,从机器学习方法与多源降水数据结合以及高原地区降水资料的适用性研究、极端降水的气候变化特征与大气环流异常的机理研究、高原地区的云宏观特征和云微物理特征研究、气候模式历史模拟性能的评估及对未来极端降水模拟的预估研究等方面进行了展望。