Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Grassland-type ecosystem stability in China differs under the influence of drought and wet events

Ecological stability is a core issue in ecological research and holds significant implications forhumanity. The increased frequency and intensity of drought and wet climate events resulting from climatechange pose a major threat to global ecological stability. Variations in stability among different ecosystemshave been confirmed, but it remains unclear whether there are differences in stability within the sameterrestrial vegetation ecosystem under the influence of climate events in different directions and intensities.China's grassland ecosystem includes most grassland types and is a good choice for studying this issue.This study used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index-12 (SPEI-12) to identify thedirections and intensities of different types of climate events, and based on Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI), calculated the resistance and resilience of different grassland types for 30consecutive years from 1990 to 2019 (resistance and resilience are important indicators to measurestability). Based on a traditional regression model, standardized methods were integrated to analyze theimpacts of the intensity and duration of drought and wet events on vegetation stability. The resultsshowed that meadow steppe exhibited the highest stability, while alpine steppe and desert steppe had thelowest overall stability. The stability of typical steppe, alpine meadow, temperate meadow was at anintermediate level. Regarding the impact of the duration and intensity of climate events on vegetationecosystem stability for the same grassland type, the resilience of desert steppe during drought was mainlyaffected by the duration. In contrast, the impact of intensity was not significant. However, alpine steppewas mainly affected by intensity in wet environments, and duration had no significant impact. Ourconclusions can provide decision support for the future grassland ecosystem governance.

Intravitreal conbercept injection with panretinal photocoagulation for high-risk proliferative diabetic retinopathy with vitreous hemorrhage

AIM:To assess the clinical efficacy and safety of combining panretinal photocoagulation(PRP)with intravitreal conbercept(IVC)injections for patients with high-risk proliferative diabetic retinopathy(HR-PDR)complicated by mild or moderate vitreous hemorrhage(VH),with or without diabetic macular edema(DME).METHODS:Patients diagnosed with VH with/without DME secondary to HR-PDR and received PRP combined with IVC injections were recruited in this retrospective study.Upon establishing the patient’s diagnosis,an initial IVC was performed,followed by prompt administration of PRP.In cases who significant bleeding persisted and impeded the laser operation,IVC was sustained before supplementing with PRP.Following the completion of PRP,patients were meticulously monitored for a minimum of six months.Laser therapy and IVC injections were judiciously adjusted based on fundus fluorescein angiography(FFA)results.Therapeutic effect and the incidence of adverse events were observed.RESULTS:Out of 42 patients(74 eyes),29 were male and 13 were female,with a mean age of 59.17±12.74y(33-84y).The diabetic history was between 1wk and 26y,and the interval between the onset of visual symptoms and diagnosis of HR-PDR was 1wk-1y.The affected eye received 2.59±1.87(1-10)IVC injections and underwent 5.5±1.02(4-8)sessions of PRP.Of these,68 eyes received PRP following 1 IVC injection,5 eyes after 2 IVC injections,and 1 eye after 3 IVC injections.Complete absorption of VH was observed in all 74 eyes 5-50wk after initial treatment,with resolution of DME in 51 eyes 3-48wk after initial treatment.A newly developed epiretinal membrane was noted in one eye.Visual acuity significantly improved in 25 eyes.No complications such as glaucoma,retinal detachment,or endophthalmitis were reported.CONCLUSION:The study suggests that the combination of PRP with IVC injections is an effective and safe modality for treating diabetic VH in patients with HR-PDR.

FibroScan-aspartate transaminase:A superior non-invasive model for diagnosing high-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)with hepatic histological NAFLD activity score≥4 and fibrosis stage F≥2 is regarded as“at risk”non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH).Based on an international consensus,NAFLD and NASH were renamed as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease(MASLD)and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis(MASH),respectively;hence,we introduced the term“high-risk MASH”.Diagnostic values of seven non-invasive models,including FibroScan-aspartate transaminase(FAST),fibrosis-4(FIB-4),aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index(APRI),etc.for high-risk MASH have rarely been studied and compared in MASLD.AIM To assess the clinical value of seven non-invasive models as alternatives to liver biopsy for diagnosing high-risk MASH.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 309 patients diagnosed with NAFLD via liver biopsy at Beijing Ditan Hospital,between January 2012 and December 2020.After screening for MASLD and the exclusion criteria,279 patients wereincluded and categorized into high-risk and non-high-risk MASH groups.Utilizing threshold values of each model,sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value(PPV),and negative predictive values(NPV),were calculated.Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to evaluate their diagnostic efficacy based on the area under the curve(AUROC).RESULTS MASLD diagnostic criteria were met by 99.4%patients with NAFLD.The MASLD population was analyzed in two cohorts:Overall population(279 patients)and the subgroup(117 patients)who underwent liver transient elastography(FibroScan).In the overall population,FIB-4 showed better diagnostic efficacy and higher PPV,with sensitivity,specificity,PPV,NPV,and AUROC of 26.9%,95.2%,73.5%,72.2%,and 0.75.APRI,Forns index,and aspartate transaminase to alanine transaminase ratio(ARR)showed moderate diagnostic efficacy,whereas S index and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio(GPR)were relatively weaker.In the subgroup,FAST had the highest diagnostic efficacy,its sensitivity,specificity,PPV,NPV,and AUROC were 44.2%,92.3%,82.1%,67.4%,and 0.82.The FIB-4 AUROC was 0.76.S index and GPR exhibited almost no diagnostic value for high-risk MASH.CONCLUSION FAST and FIB-4 could replace liver biopsy as more effectively diagnostic methods for high-risk MASH compared to APRI,Forns index,ARR,S index,and GPR;FAST is superior to FIB-4.

Power equipment vibration visualization using intelligent sensing method based on event-sensing principle

Vibration measurements can be used to evaluate the operation status of power equipment and are widely applied in equipment quality inspection and fault identification.Event-sensing technology can sense the change in surface light intensity caused by object vibration and provide a visual description of vibration behavior.Based on the analysis of the principle underlying the transformation of vibration behavior into event flow data by an event sensor,this paper proposes an algorithm to reconstruct event flow data into a relationship correlating vibration displacement and time to extract the amplitude-frequency characteristics of the vibration signal.A vibration measurement test platform is constructed,and feasibility and effectiveness tests are performed for the vibration motor and other power equipment.The results show that event-sensing technology can effectively perceive the surface vibration behavior of power and provide a wide dynamic range.Furthermore,the vibration measurement and visualization algorithm for power equipment constructed using this technology offers high measurement accuracy and efficiency.The results of this study provide a new noncontact and visual method for locating vibrations and performing amplitude-frequency analysis on power equipment.

Evaluation of the Impact of Driver Behavior on Back of Queues Events in Work Zones Using the SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study Data

The SHRP2 Naturalistic Driving Study was used to evaluate the impact of various work zone and driver characteristics on back of queue safety critical events (crash, near-crash, or conflicts) The model included 43 SCE and 209 “normal” events which were used as controls. The traces included representing 209 unique drivers. A Mixed-Effects Logistic Regression model was developed with probability of a SCE as the response variable and driver and work zone characteristics as predictor variables. The final model indicated glances over 1 second away from the driving task and following closely increased risk of an SCE by 3.8 times and 2.9 times, respectively. Average speed was negatively correlated to crash risk. This is counterintuitive since in most cases, it is expected that higher speeds are related to back of queue crashes. However, most queues form under congested conditions. As a result, vehicles encountering a back of queue would be more likely to be traveling at lower speeds.

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Persistent Wet–Cold Events with Different Cold-air Paths in South China

We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair paths.Results show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part of South China is higher than that in the eastern part.The pattern of single-station frequency of the PWCEs are“Yangtze River(YR)uniform”and“east–west inverse”.The YR uniform pattern is the dominant mode,so we focus on this pattern.The cold-air paths for PWCEs of the YR uniform pattern are divided into three types—namely,the west,northwest and north types—among which the west type accounts for the largest proportion.The differences in atmospheric circulation of the PWCEs under the three types of paths are obvious.The thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere is favorable for precipitation during the PWCEs.The positive water vapor budget for the three types of PWCEs mainly appears at the southern boundary.

Performance of the EDACS-ADP incorporating high-sensitivity troponin assay:Do components of major adverse cardiac events matter?

BACKGROUND:The accelerated diagnostic protocol(ADP)using the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score(EDACS-ADP),a tool to identify patients at low risk of a major adverse cardiac event(MACE)among patients presenting with chest pain to the emergency department,was developed using a contemporary troponin assay.This study was performed to validate and compare the performance of the EDACS-ADP incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I between patients who had a 30-day MACE with and without unstable angina(MACE I and II,respectively).METHODS:A single-center prospective observational study of adult patients presenting with chest pain suggestive of acute coronary syndrome was performed.The performance of EDACS-ADP in predicting MACE was assessed by calculating the sensitivity and negative predictive value.RESULTS:Of the 1,304 patients prospectively enrolled,399(30.6%;95%confidence interval[95%CI]:27.7%–33.8%)were considered low-risk using the EDACS-ADP.Among them,the rates of MACE I and II were 1.3%(5/399)and 1.0%(4/399),respectively.The EDACS-ADP showed sensitivities and negative predictive values of 98.8%(95%CI:97.2%–99.6%)and 98.7%(95%CI:97.0%–99.5%)for MACE I and 98.7%(95%CI:96.8%–99.7%)and 99.0%(95%CI:97.4%–99.6%)for MACE II,respectively.CONCLUSION:EDACS-ADP could help identify patients as safe for early discharge.However,when unstable angina was added to the outcome,the 30-day MACE rate among the designated lowrisk patients remained above the level acceptable for early discharge without further evaluation.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio:Markers predicting immune-checkpoint inhibitor efficacy and immune-related adverse events

We conducted a comprehensive review of existing prediction models pertaining to the efficacy of immune-checkpoint inhibitor(ICI)and the occurrence of immune-related adverse events(irAEs).The predictive potential of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR)and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)in determining ICI effectiveness has been extensively investigated,while limited research has been conducted on predicting irAEs.Furthermore,the combined model incor-porating NLR and PLR,either with each other or in conjunction with additional markers such as carcinoembryonic antigen,exhibits superior predictive capabilities compared to individual markers alone.NLR and PLR are promising markers for clinical applications.Forthcoming models ought to incorporate established efficacious models and newly identified ones,thereby constituting a multifactor composite model.Furthermore,efforts should be made to explore effective clinical application approaches that enhance the predictive accuracy and efficiency.

Studies of an event-building algorithm of the readout system for the twin TPCs in HFRS

The High-energy Fragment Separator(HFRS),which is currently under construction,is a leading international radioactive beam device.Multiple sets of position-sensitive twin time projection chamber(TPC)detectors are distributed on HFRS for particle identification and beam monitoring.The twin TPCs'readout electronics system operates in a trigger-less mode due to its high counting rate,leading to a challenge of handling large amounts of data.To address this problem,we introduced an event-building algorithm.This algorithm employs a hierarchical processing strategy to compress data during transmission and aggregation.In addition,it reconstructs twin TPCs'events online and stores only the reconstructed particle information,which significantly reduces the burden on data transmission and storage resources.Simulation studies demonstrated that the algorithm accurately matches twin TPCs'events and reduces more than 98%of the data volume at a counting rate of 500 kHz/channel.

Impact of body mass index on adverse kidney events in diabetes mellitus patients: A systematic-review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The incidence of chronic kidney disease among patients with diabetes mellitus(DM)remains a global concern.Long-term obesity is known to possibly influence the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus.However,no previous meta-analysis has assessed the effects of body mass index(BMI)on adverse kidney events in patients with DM.AIM To determine the impact of BMI on adverse kidney events in patients with DM.METHODS A systematic literature search was performed on the PubMed,ISI Web of Science,Scopus,Ovid,Google Scholar,EMBASE,and BMJ databases.We included trials with the following characteristics:(1)Type of study:Prospective,retrospective,randomized,and non-randomized in design;(2)participants:Restricted to patients with DM aged≥18 years;(3)intervention:No intervention;and(4)kidney adverse events:Onset of diabetic kidney disease[estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)of<60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or microalbuminuria value of≥30 mg/g Cr],serum creatinine increase of more than double the baseline or end-stage renal disease(eGFR<15 mL/min/1.73 m2 or dialysis),or death.RESULTS Overall,11 studies involving 801 patients with DM were included.High BMI(≥25 kg/m2)was significantly associated with higher blood pressure(BP)[systolic BP by 0.20,95%confidence interval(CI):0.15–0.25,P<0.00001;diastolic BP by 0.21 mmHg,95%CI:0.04–0.37,P=0.010],serum albumin,triglycerides[standard mean difference(SMD)=0.35,95%CI:0.29–0.41,P<0.00001],low-density lipoprotein(SMD=0.12,95%CI:0.04–0.20,P=0.030),and lower high-density lipoprotein(SMD=–0.36,95%CI:–0.51 to–0.21,P<0.00001)in patients with DM compared with those with low BMIs(<25 kg/m2).Our analysis showed that high BMI was associated with a higher risk ratio of adverse kidney events than low BMI(RR:1.22,95%CI:1.01–1.43,P=0.036).CONCLUSION The present analysis suggested that high BMI was a risk factor for adverse kidney events in patients with DM.

Increased retinal venule diameter as a prognostic indicator for recurrent cerebrovascular events:a prospective observational study

Microvasculature of the retina is considered an alternative marker of cerebral vascular risk in healthy populations.However,the ability of retinal vasculature changes,specifically focusing on retinal vessel diameter,to predict the recurrence of cerebrovascular events in patients with ischemic stroke has not been determined comprehensively.While previous studies have shown a link between retinal vessel diameter and recurrent cerebrovascular events,they have not incorporated this information into a predictive model.Therefore,this study aimed to investigate the relationship between retinal vessel diameter and subsequent cerebrovascular events in patients with acute ischemic stroke.Additionally,we sought to establish a predictive model by combining retinal veessel diameter with traditional risk factors.We performed a prospective observational study of 141 patients with acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University.All of these patients underwent digital retinal imaging within 72 hours of admission and were followed up for 3 years.We found that,after adjusting for related risk factors,patients with acute ischemic stroke with mean arteriolar diameter within 0.5-1.0 disc diameters of the disc margin(MAD_(0.5-1.0DD))of≥74.14μm and mean venular diameter within 0.5-1.0 disc diameters of the disc margin(MVD_(0.5-1.0DD))of≥83.91μm tended to experience recurrent cerebrovascular events.We established three multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models:model 1 included traditional risk factors,model 2 added MAD_(0.5-1.0DD)to model 1,and model 3 added MVD0.5-1.0DD to model 1.Model 3 had the greatest potential to predict subsequent cerebrovascular events,followed by model 2,and finally model 1.These findings indicate that combining retinal venular or arteriolar diameter with traditional risk factors could improve the prediction of recurrent cerebrovascular events in patients with acute ischemic stroke,and that retinal imaging could be a useful and non-invasive method for identifying high-risk patients who require closer monitoring and more aggressive management.

Spatiotemporal variability of rain-on-snow events in the arid region of Northwest China

Rain-on-snow(ROS)events involve rainfall on snow surfaces,and the occurrence of ROS events can exacerbate water scarcity and ecosystem vulnerability in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC).In this study,using daily snow depth data and daily meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations provided by the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Information Centre,we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of ROS events in the ARNC from 1978 to 2015 and examined the factors affecting these events and possible changes of future ROS events in the ARNC.The results showed that ROS events in the ARNC mainly occurred from October to May of the following year and were largely distributed in the Qilian Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng Prefecture,and Altay Prefecture,with the Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains exhibiting the most occurrences.Based on the intensity of ROS events,the areas with the highest risk of flooding resulting from ROS events in the ARNC were the Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains.The number and intensity of ROS events in the ARNC largely increased from 1978 to 2015,mainly influenced by air temperature and the number of rainfall days.However,due to the snowpack abundance in areas experiencing frequent ROS events in the ARNC,snowpack changes exerted slight impact on ROS events,which is a temporary phenomenon.Furthermore,elevation imposed lesser impact on ROS events in the ARNC than other factors.In the ARNC,the start time of rainfall and the end time of snowpack gradually advanced from the spring of the current year to the winter of the previous year,while the end time of rainfall and the start time of snowpack gradually delayed from autumn to winter.This may lead to more ROS events in winter in the future.These results could provide a sound basis for managing water resources and mitigating related disasters caused by ROS events in the ARNC.

Distribution and Formation Causes of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) Double High Pollution Events in China during 2013–20

Fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and ozone(O_(3))double high pollution(DHP)events have occurred frequently over China in recent years,but their causes are not completely clear.In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of DHP events in China during 2013–20 is analyzed.The synoptic types affecting DHP events are identified with the Lamb–Jenkinson circulation classification method.The meteorological and chemical causes of DHP events controlled by the main synoptic types are further investigated.Results show that DHP events(1655 in total for China during 2013–20)mainly occur over the North China Plain,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Sichuan Basin,and Central China.The occurrence frequency increases by 5.1%during 2013–15,and then decreases by 56.1%during 2015–20.The main circulation types of DHP events are“cyclone”and“anticyclone”,accounting for over 40%of all DHP events over five main polluted regions in China,followed by southerly or easterly flat airflow types,like“southeast”,“southwest”,and“east”.Compared with non-DHP events,DHP events are characterized by static or weak wind,high temperature(20.9℃ versus 23.1℃)and low humidity(70.0%versus 64.9%).The diurnal cycles of meteorological conditions cause PM_(2.5)(0300–1200 LST,Local Standard Time=UTC+8 hours)and O_(3)(1500–2100 LST)to exceed the national standards at different periods of the DHP day.Three pollutant conversion indices further indicate the rapid secondary conversions during DHP events,and thus the concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2) and volatile organic compounds decrease by 13.1%,4.7%and 4.4%,respectively.The results of this study can be informative for future decisions on the management of DHP events.

Prediabetes: An overlooked risk factor for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in atrial fibrillation patients

BACKGROUND Prediabetes is a well-established risk factor for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events(MACCE).However,the relationship between prediabetes and MACCE in atrial fibrillation(AF)patients has not been extensively studied.Therefore,this study aimed to establish a link between prediabetes and MACCE in AF patients.AIM To investigate a link between prediabetes and MACCE in AF patients.METHODS We used the National Inpatient Sample(2019)and relevant ICD-10 CM codes to identify hospitalizations with AF and categorized them into groups with and without prediabetes,excluding diabetics.The primary outcome was MACCE(all-cause inpatient mortality,cardiac arrest including ventricular fibrillation,and stroke)in AF-related hospitalizations.RESULTS Of the 2965875 AF-related hospitalizations for MACCE,47505(1.6%)were among patients with prediabetes.The prediabetes cohort was relatively younger(median 75 vs 78 years),and often consisted of males(56.3%vs 51.4%),blacks(9.8%vs 7.9%),Hispanics(7.3%vs 4.3%),and Asians(4.7%vs 1.6%)than the non-prediabetic cohort(P<0.001).The prediabetes group had significantly higher rates of hypertension,hyperlipidemia,smoking,obesity,drug abuse,prior myocardial infarction,peripheral vascular disease,and hyperthyroidism(all P<0.05).The prediabetes cohort was often discharged routinely(51.1%vs 41.1%),but more frequently required home health care(23.6%vs 21.0%)and had higher costs.After adjusting for baseline characteristics or comorbidities,the prediabetes cohort with AF admissions showed a higher rate and significantly higher odds of MACCE compared to the non-prediabetic cohort[18.6%vs 14.7%,odds ratio(OR)1.34,95%confidence interval 1.26-1.42,P<0.001].On subgroup analyses,males had a stronger association(aOR 1.43)compared to females(aOR 1.22),whereas on the race-wise comparison,Hispanics(aOR 1.43)and Asians(aOR 1.36)had a stronger association with MACCE with prediabetes vs whites(aOR 1.33)and blacks(aOR 1.21).CONCLUSION This population-based study found a significant association between prediabetes and MACCE in AF patients.Therefore,there is a need for further research to actively screen and manage prediabetes in AF to prevent MACCE.

Dark Galaxies, Sun-Earth-Moon Interaction, Tunguska Event—Explained by WUM

Great experimental results and observations achieved by Astronomy in the last decades revealed new unexplainable phenomena. Astronomers have conclusive new evidence that a recently discovered “dark galaxy” is, in fact, an object the size of a galaxy, made entirely of dark matter. They found that the speed of the Earth’s rotation varies randomly each day. 115 years ago, the Tunguska Event was observed, and astronomers still do not have an explanation of It. Main results of the present article are: 1) Dark galaxies explained by the spinning of their Dark Matter Cores with the surface speed at equator less than the escape velocity. Their Rotational Fission is not happening. Extrasolar systems do not emerge;2) 21-cm Emission explained by the self-annihilation of Dark Matter particles XIONs (5.3 μeV);3) Sun-Earth-Moon Interaction explained by the influence of the Sun’s and the Moon’s magnetic field on the electrical currents of the charged Geomagma (the 660-km layer), and, as a result, the Earth’s daylength varies;4) Tunguska Event explained by a huge atmospheric explosion of the Superbolide, which was a stable Dark Matter Bubble before entering the Earth’s atmosphere.

Predicting major adverse cardiovascular events after orthotopic liver transplantation using a supervised machine learning model:A cohort study

BACKGROUND Liver transplant(LT)patients have become older and sicker.The rate of post-LT major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)has increased,and this in turn raises 30-d post-LT mortality.Noninvasive cardiac stress testing loses accuracy when applied to pre-LT cirrhotic patients.AIM To assess the feasibility and accuracy of a machine learning model used to predict post-LT MACE in a regional cohort.METHODS This retrospective cohort study involved 575 LT patients from a Southern Brazilian academic center.We developed a predictive model for post-LT MACE(defined as a composite outcome of stroke,new-onset heart failure,severe arrhythmia,and myocardial infarction)using the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)machine learning model.We addressed missing data(below 20%)for relevant variables using the k-nearest neighbor imputation method,calculating the mean from the ten nearest neighbors for each case.The modeling dataset included 83 features,encompassing patient and laboratory data,cirrhosis complications,and pre-LT cardiac assessments.Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).We also employed Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)to interpret feature impacts.The dataset was split into training(75%)and testing(25%)sets.Calibration was evaluated using the Brier score.We followed Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis guidelines for reporting.Scikit-learn and SHAP in Python 3 were used for all analyses.The supplementary material includes code for model development and a user-friendly online MACE prediction calculator.RESULTS Of the 537 included patients,23(4.46%)developed in-hospital MACE,with a mean age at transplantation of 52.9 years.The majority,66.1%,were male.The XGBoost model achieved an impressive AUROC of 0.89 during the training stage.This model exhibited accuracy,precision,recall,and F1-score values of 0.84,0.85,0.80,and 0.79,respectively.Calibration,as assessed by the Brier score,indicated excellent model calibration with a score of 0.07.Furthermore,SHAP values highlighted the significance of certain variables in predicting postoperative MACE,with negative noninvasive cardiac stress testing,use of nonselective beta-blockers,direct bilirubin levels,blood type O,and dynamic alterations on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy being the most influential factors at the cohort-wide level.These results highlight the predictive capability of our XGBoost model in assessing the risk of post-LT MACE,making it a valuable tool for clinical practice.CONCLUSION Our study successfully assessed the feasibility and accuracy of the XGBoost machine learning model in predicting post-LT MACE,using both cardiovascular and hepatic variables.The model demonstrated impressive performance,aligning with literature findings,and exhibited excellent calibration.Notably,our cautious approach to prevent overfitting and data leakage suggests the stability of results when applied to prospective data,reinforcing the model’s value as a reliable tool for predicting post-LT MACE in clinical practice.

Projected Changes in Extreme Event Indices for Alaska

As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .

Elevated cardiovascular risk and acute events in hospitalized colon cancer survivors:A decade-apart study of two nationwide cohorts

BACKGROUND Over the years,strides in colon cancer detection and treatment have boosted survival rates;yet,post-colon cancer survival entails cardiovascular disease(CVD)risks.Research on CVD risks and acute cardiovascular events in colorectal cancer survivors has been limited.AIM To compare the CVD risk and adverse cardiovascular outcomes in current colon cancer survivors compared to a decade ago.METHODS We analyzed 2007 and 2017 hospitalization data from the National Inpatient Sample,studying two colon cancer survivor groups for CVD risk factors,mortality rates,and major adverse events like pulmonary embolism,arrhythmia,cardiac arrest,and stroke,adjusting for confounders via multivariable regression analysis.RESULTS Of total colon cancer survivors hospitalized in 2007(n=177542)and 2017(n=178325),the 2017 cohort often consisted of younger(76 vs 77 years),male,African-American,and Hispanic patients admitted non-electively vs the 2007 cohort.Furthermore,the 2017 cohort had higher rates of smoking,alcohol abuse,drug abuse,coagulopathy,liver disease,weight loss,and renal failure.Patients in the 2017 cohort also had higher rates of cardiovascular comorbidities,including hypertension,hyperlipidemia,diabetes,obesity,peripheral vascular disease,congestive heart failure,and at least one traditional CVD(P<0.001)vs the 2007 cohort.On adjusted multivariable analysis,the 2017 cohort had a significantly higher risk of pulmonary embolism(PE)(OR:1.47,95%CI:1.37-1.48),arrhythmia(OR:1.41,95%CI:1.38-1.43),atrial fibrillation/flutter(OR:1.61,95%CI:1.58-1.64),cardiac arrest including ventricular tachyarrhythmia(OR:1.63,95%CI:1.46-1.82),and stroke(OR:1.28,95%CI:1.22-1.34)with comparable all-cause mortality and fewer routine discharges(48.4%vs 55.0%)(P<0.001)vs the 2007 cohort.CONCLUSION Colon cancer survivors hospitalized 10 years apart in the United States showed an increased CVD risk with an increased risk of acute cardiovascular events(stroke 28%,PE 47%,arrhythmia 41%,and cardiac arrest 63%).It is vital to regularly screen colon cancer survivors with concomitant CVD risk factors to curtail long-term cardiovascular complications.