SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Scenarios,Disease Predictions and Estimates the Basic Reproduction Number,Case Fatality Rate,Hospital,and ICU Beds Requirement

We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.

Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of an epidemic model with limited number of hospital beds

This paper deals with a three-dimensional nonlinear mathematical model to analyze an epidemic's future course when the public healthcare facilities,specifically the number of hospital beds,are limited.The feasibility and stability of the obtained equilibria are analyzed,and the basic reproduction number(Ro)is obtained.We show that the system exhibits transcritical bifurcation.To show the existence of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation,we have derived the normal form.We have also discussed a generalized Hopf(or Bautin)bifurcation at which the first Lyapunov coefficient evanescences.To show the existence of saddle-node bifurcation,we used Sotomayor's theorem.Furthermore,we have identified an optimal layout of hospital beds in order to control the disease with minimum possible expenditure.An optimal control setting is studied analytically using optimal control theory,and numerical simulations of the optimal regimen are presented as well.

Hospital Utilization after the Epidemic

This study focused on hospital utilization for adult medical-surgical patients in Syracuse, New York as the census peaked then declined between December 2020 and February 2021. The initial analysis demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census including Coronavirus patients declined by 8.1 percent during January and February 2021. The study data also demonstrated that the adult medical-surgical census of the combined hospitals increased as the numbers of virus patients declined. The inpatient census at the end of February 2021 was 3.6 percent below the level for February 2019 and 15.0 percent below the level for February 2020. This suggested a range between 3.6 and 15.0 percent below those in previous years for medical-surgical planning after the epidemic.

Evaluating Inpatient Hospital Bed Need at the Community Level

An important component of health care planning at the community level is the identification of inpatient hospital bed capacity. In the United States, hospitals are major providers of patient care and the largest sources of health care expenses. This study evaluated inpatient hospital capacity for major services including adult medicine, adult surgery, and obstetrics. It was based on local and regional demographics, admissions per capita, inmigration, and inpatient lengths of stay. The study also involved the use of the methodology to estimate bed need based on a reduction in hospital admissions and discharges of 15 percent. This level has been the experience of area hospitals between 2019 and 2022. The study also included the use of the bed need methodology to estimate the hospital utilization based on a decline in inpatient lengths of stay. It resulted in a decline in hospital occupancy in the hospital service area from 1213.1 to 1012.6 patients based on 80 percent occupancy and the best practice hospital stays in the region.