Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

Temperature dependence of mechanical properties and damage evolution of hot dry rocks under rapid cooling

Understanding the differences in mechanical properties and damage characteristics of granitoid under high temperatures is crucial for exploring deep geothermal resources.This study analyzes the evolution of the acoustic emission(AE)characteristics and mechanical parameters of granodiorite and granite after heating and water cooling by uniaxial compression and variable-angle shear tests under different temperature gradients.We identify their changes in mesostructure and mineral composition with electron probe microanalysis and scanning electron microscopy.Results show that these two hot dry rocks have similar diagenetic minerals and microstructure,but show significantly different mechanical and acoustic characteristics,and even opposing evolution trends in a certain temperature range.At the temperatures ranging from 100℃to 500℃,the compressive and shear mechanical properties of granodiorite switch repeatedly between weakening and strengthening,and those of granite show a continuous weakening trend.At 600℃,both rocks exhibit a deterioration of mechanical properties.The damage mode of granite is characterized by initiating at low stress,exponential evolutionary activity,and intensified energy release.In contrast,granodiorite exhibits the characteristics of initiating at high stress,volatile evolutionary activity,and intermittent energy release,due to its more stable microstructure and fewer thermal defects compared to granite.As the temperature increases,the initiation and propagation of secondary cracks in granodiorite are suppressed to a certain extent,and the seismicity and brittleness are enhanced.The subtle differences in grain size,microscopic heterogeneity,and mineral composition of the two hot dry rocks determine the different acoustic-mechanical characteristics under heating and cooling,and the evolution trends with temperature.These findings are of great significance for the scientific and efficient construction of rock mass engineering by rationally utilizing different rock strata properties.

Two stages power generation test of the hot dry rock exploration and production demonstration project in the Gonghe Basin,northeastern Qinghai-Tibet plateau,China

The Hot Dry Rock(HDR)is considered as a clean and renewable energy,poised to significantly contribute to the global energy decarbonization agenda.Many HDR projects worldwide have accumulated valuable experience in efficient drilling and completion,reservoir construction,and fracture simulation.In 2019,China Geological Survey(CGS)initiated a demonstration project of HDR exploration and production in the Gonghe Basin,aiming to overcome the setbacks faced by HDR projects.Over the ensuing four years,the Gonghe HDR project achieved the first power generation in 2021,followed by the second power generation test in 2022.After establishing the primary well group in the initial phase,two directional wells and one branch well were drilled.Noteworthy progress was made in successfully constructing the targeted reservoir,realizing inter-well connectivity,power generation and grid connection,implementing of the real-time micro-seismic monitoring.A closed-loop technical validation of the HDR exploration and production was completed.However,many technical challenges remain in the process of HDR industrialization,such as reservoir fracture network characterization,efficient drilling and completion,multiple fracturing treatment,continuous injection and production,as well as mitigation of induced seismicity and numerical simulation technology.

Optimisation of Thermal Comfort of Building in a Hot and Dry Tropical Climate: A Comparative Approach between Compressed Earth/Concrete Block Envelopes

Compressed earth blocks (CEB) are an alternative to cement blocks in the construction of wall masonry. However, the optimal architectural construction methods for adequate thermal comfort for occupants in hot and arid environments are not mastered. This article evaluates the influence of architectural and constructive modes of buildings made of CEB walls and concrete block walls, to optimize and compare their thermal comfort in the hot and dry tropical climate of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Two identical pilot buildings whose envelopes are made of CEB and concrete blocks were monitored for this study. The thermal models of the pilot buildings were implemented in the SketchUp software using an extension of EnergyPlus. The models were empirically validated after calibration against measured thermal data from the buildings. The models were used to do a parametric analysis for optimization of the thermal performances by simulating plaster coatings on the exterior of walls, airtight openings and natural ventilation depending on external weather conditions. The results show that the CEB building displays 7016 hours of discomfort, equivalent to 80.1% of the time, and the concrete building displays 6948 hours of discomfort, equivalent to 79.3% of the time. The optimization by modifications reduced the discomfort to 2918 and 3125 hours respectively;i.e. equivalent to only 33.3% for the CEB building and 35.7% for the concrete building. More study should evaluate thermal optimizations in buildings in real time of usage such as residential buildings commonly used by the local middle class. The use of CEB as a construction material and passive means of improving thermal comfort is a suitable ecological and economical option to replace cementitious material.

Enhance liquid nitrogen fracturing performance on hot dry rock by cyclic injection

Producing complex fracture networks in a safe way plays a critical role in the hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal energy exploitation. However, conventional hydraulic fracturing (HF) generally produces high breakdown pressure and results only in single main fracture morphology. Furthermore, HF has also other problems such as the increased risk of seismic events and consuption of large amount of water. In this work, a new stimulation method based on cyclic soft stimulation (CSS) and liquid nitrogen (LN2) fracturing, known as cyclic LN2 fracturing is explored, which we believe has the potential to solve the above issues related to HF. The fracturing performances including breakdown pressure and fracture morphology on granites under true-triaxial stresses are investigated and compared with cyclic water fracturing. Cryo-scanning electron microscopy (Cryo-SEM) tests and X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning tests were used for quantitative characterization of fracture parameters and to evaluate the cyclic LN2 fracturing performances. The results demonstrate that the cyclic LN2 fracturing results in reduced breakdown pressure, with between 21% and 67% lower pressure compared with using cyclic water fracturing. Cyclic LN2 fracturing tends to produce more complex and branched fractures, whereas cyclic water fracturing usually produces a single main fracture under a low number of cycles and pressure levels. Thermally-induced fractures mostly occur around the interfaces of different particles. This study shows the potential benefits of cyclic LN2 fracturing on HDR. It is expected to provide theoretical guidance for the cyclic LN2 fracturing application in HDR reservoirs.

Artificial neural network techniques to predict the moisture ratio content during hot air drying and vacuum drying of Radix isatidis extract

Background:To predict the moisture ratio of Radix isatidis extract during drying.Methods:Artificial neural networks were designed using the MATLAB neural network toolbox to produce a moisture ratio prediction model of Radix isatidis extract during hot air drying and vacuum drying,where regression values and mean squared error were used as evaluation indexes to optimize the number of hidden layer nodes and determine the topological structure of artificial neural networks model.In addition,the drying curves for the different drying parameters were analyzed.Results:The optimal topological structure of the moisture ratio prediction model for hot air drying and vacuum drying of Radix isatidis extract were“4-9-1”and“5-9-1”respectively,and the regression values between the predicted value and the experimental value is close to 1.This indicates that it has a high prediction accuracy.The moisture ratio gradually decreases with an increase in the drying time,reducing the loading,initial moisture content,increasing the temperature,and pressure can shorten the drying time and improve the drying efficiency.Conclusion:Artificial neural networks technology has the advantages of rapid and accurate prediction,and can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for online prediction during the drying process of the extract.

A 3D analysis of the occurrence of fractures in hot dry rock reservoirs based on the spatial distribution of natural fractures

Hot dry rock(HDR)geothermal energy is a kind of widely distributed clean energy with huge reserves.However,its commercial development has been constrained by reservoir stimulation.In the early stage of HDR geothermal energy development,properly determining spatial distribution patterns of natural fractures in HDR reservoirs can effectively guide reservoir stimulation.This study analyzes the spatial distribution of natural fractures by using FracMan software based on the actual geological data and log data of well M-2 in the Matouying Uplift area,Hebei Province.The fracture parameters are counted and Monte Carlo simulation technique is introduced to optimize the parameters,which makes the natural fracture model more accurate and reliable.Furthermore,this study simulates hydraulic fracturing using the model combined with the actual in-situ stress parameters and the construction scheme.As verified by fitting the changes in simulated wellhead pressure during hydraulic fracturing with the actual wellhead pressure data detected during construction,the methods for natural fracture modeling used in this study are scientific and reasonable.The preliminary prediction results show that the displacement design scheme with a pump displacement of 2.0-3.0 m^(3)/min,4.0-5.5 m^(3)/min and 6-7 m^(3)/min in the early,middle and late stages,respectively,has good fracturing effect.The results of this study can be utilized as a reference for preparing development schemes for HDR reservoirs.

Effect of different drying methods on the taste and volatile compounds,sensory characteristics of Takifugu obscurus

Pufferfish is prone to deterioration due to abundant nutrients and high moisture content.Drying technology can extend the shelf life and enhance the flavor quality of aquatic products.The study investigated the effect of hot air drying(HAD),microwave vacuum drying(MVD)and hot air assisted radio frequency drying(HARFD)on the taste and volatile profiles of Takifugu obscurus.Different drying methods had significant influence on the color,rehydration,5’-nucleotides,free amino acids and volatile components(P<0.05).The results showed that HAD and HARFD could promote the flavor of T.obscurus by producing higher equivalent umami concentration(EUC)values,which were about two times of MVD group,and more pronounced pleasant odor according to sensory analysis.HAD is more appropriate for industrial application than HARFD and MVD considering the economic benefits.This study could provide a reference for the industrial application of drying T.obscurus.

Interannual Variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem.The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward trend.Additionally,DH events were observed to occur frequently.The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after 1997.The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China.The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate factors.The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was 2.8.In addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day.The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.

Lessons learned from hydrothermal to hot dry rock exploration and production

In this paper,we investigate geothermal exploration and production in 189 hydrothermal projects and 42 hot dry rock projects around the world.The hydrothermal fields for a working hydrothermal system to generate electricity should have the elements of heat source,water-saturated porous or fractured reservoir,caprock,heat transfer pathway,and good heat preservation condition and geothermal power energy intensity of 10-20 MW per km^(2)within at least 5 km^(2)area in tectonically active region.The hot water or steam flow rate in this hydrothermal system is normally larger than 40 L/s with temperature of 150℃or above.The power generated from enhanced geothermal system(EGS)in hot dry rock projects are generally less than 2 MW because the flow rate in most cases is much less than 40 L/s even with the hydraulic fractures using the modern stimulation technology learned from the oil and gas industry.The natural fracture in the subsurface is generally beneficial to the hydraulic fracturing and heat recovery in the hot dry rock.Moreover,the hydraulic fracture parameters,injection rate and well spacing,drilling strategy should be properly designed to avoid the short-circuit between injector and producer and low heat productivity.In the future,CO^(2)enhanced geothermal recovery associated with CO^(2)sequestration in the high temperature oil,gas,and geothermal fields maybe a good choice.On the other hand,both nearreal-time seismic monitoring to limit the pumping rate and the closed-loop of the Eavor-Loop style system without hydraulic fracture can contribute greatly to heat recovery of hot dry rocks and mitigate the risks of the hydraulic fracturing induced earthquake.Furthermore,the hybrid solar and geothermal system performs better than the stand-alone geothermal system.

Heat Aggregation Mechanisms of Hot Dry Rocks Resources in the Gonghe Basin, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Hot dry rock(HDR) is an important geothermal resource and clean energy source that may play an increasingly important role in future energy management. High-temperature HDR resources were recently detected in deep regions of the Gonghe Basin on the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, which led to a significant breakthrough in HDR resource exploration in China. This research analyzes the deep temperature distribution, radiogenic heat production, heat flow, and crustal thermal structure in the Qiaboqia Valley, Guide Plain, and Zhacanggou area of the Gonghe Basin based on geothermal exploration borehole logging data, rock thermophysical properties, and regional geophysical exploration data. The results are applied to discuss the heat accumulation mechanism of the HDR resources in the Gonghe Basin. The findings suggest that a low-velocity layer in the thickened crust of the Tibetan Plateau provides the most important source of constant intracrustal heat for the formation of HDR resources in the Gonghe Basin, whereas crustal thickening redistributes the concentrated layer of radioactive elements, which compensates for the relatively low heat production of the basal granite and serves as an important supplement to the heat of the HDR resources. The negative effect is that the downward curvature of the lithospheric upper mantle caused by crustal thickening leads to a small mantle heat flow component. As a result, the heat flows in the Qiaboqia Valley and Guide Plain of the Gonghe Basin are 106.2 and 77.6 m W/m2, respectively, in which the crust-mantle heat flow ratio of the former is 3.12:1, indicating a notably anomalous intracrustal thermal structure. In contrast, the crust-mantle heat flow ratio in the Guide Plain is 1.84:1, which reflects a typical hot crust-cold mantle thermal structure. The Guide Plain and Zhacanggou area show the same increasing temperature trend with depth, which reflects that their geothermal backgrounds and deep high-temperature environments are similar. These results provide important insight on the heat source mechanism of HDR resource formation in the Tibetan Plateau and useful guidance for future HDR resource exploration projects and target sites selection in similar areas.

The first power generation test of hot dry rock resources exploration and production demonstration project in the Gonghe Basin,Qinghai Province,China

Hot dry rock(HDR)is a kind of clean energy with significant potential.Since the 1970s,the United States,Japan,France,Australia,and other countries have attempted to conduct several HDR development research projects to extract thermal energy by breaking through key technologies.However,up to now,the development of HDR is still in the research,development,and demonstration stage.An HDR exploration borehole(with 236℃ at a depth of 3705 m)was drilled into Triassic granite in the Gonghe Basin in northwest China in 2017.Subsequently,China Geological Survey(CGS)launched the HDR resources exploration and production demonstration project in 2019.After three years of efforts,a sequence of significant technological breakthroughs have been made,including the genetic model of deep heat sources,directional drilling and well completion in high-temperature hard rock,large-scale reservoir stimulation,reservoir characterization,and productivity evaluation,reservoir connectivity and flow circulation,efficient thermoelectric conversion,monitoring,and geological risk assessment,etc.Then the whole-process technological system for HDR exploration and production has been preliminarily established accordingly.The first power generation test was completed in November 2021.The results of this project will provide scientific support for HDR development and utilization in the future.

The Extremely Hot and Dry Climatic Events and Potash Enrichment in Salt Lakes of the Jiangling Depression, Jianghan Basin

Objective A total of 820 million tons of potash reserves are predicted to exist in the Palaeocene-Eocene of the Jianghan Basin. However, the basin history is still unclear concerning the potash enriching conditions and mechanism. The Well SKDI is the first exploration well drilled in the Paleogene of Jianghan Basin with continuous coring, which was implemented in the south-central Jiangling Basin in 2013. It is essential to study the Palaeocene-Eocene paleoclimate, to further constrain the extreme draught events and the potash forming conditions.

China First Discovered Massive Available Hot Dry Rock Resources

Hot Dry Rock （HDR） refers to those generally deeply buried impermeable metamorphic or crystallized biotite gneiss, granite and granodiorite rock bodies, with a burial depth greater than 2000 m, containing no water or vapor. HDR is as implied, hot and dry, with temperatures ranging from 150 to 650℃, and it can be utilized as a heat resource. Because this type of heat system does not require porosity, permeability and fluids and is widespread at the drillable depth range of 10 kin, it is thereby an infinite resource type. By contrast, thermal power generation results in copious pollution; wind power is irregular and unstable; solar energy occupies large areas.

Hydraulic Conductivity Characteristics of Hot Dry Rocks under Different Fracture Modes

Enhanced geothermal system(EGS) is an effective method for developing and utilizing hot dry rock(HDR). The key to the effectiveness of EGS is the construction of an artificial fracture network. The permeability of fractures has severe effects on the heat transfer efficiency and sustainability of geothermal energy. However, the evolution characteristics of hydraulic conductivity under different failure modes have not been adequately studied for HDR. To clarify this, rocks with different failure modes were investigated by conducting thermal triaxial compression experiments, and the fluid seepage related to different rock failure modes was comprehensively investigated. The results showed that the characteristic stresses and crack surface roughness of the rock increased as the confining pressure increased. The permeability in the composited failure mode was the largest(11.4 μm;), followed by that in the Y-shaped shear failure mode(9.7 μm;), and that in the single-shear failure mode was the smallest(7.2 μm;). The confining pressures had an inhibitory effect on permeability. As the confining pressure increased from 5 to 30 MPa, the permeability decreased by 88.8%, 88.4%, and 89.9%, respectively. In contrast, the permeability was significantly enhanced by 128.3%, 94.6%, and 131% as the flow rate increased from 3 to 7 m L/min.

Fracture Network Volume Fracturing Technology in High-temperature Hard Formation of Hot Dry Rock

It is more difficult for a hot dry rock to form a fracture network system than shale due to its special lithology, physical and mechanical properties under high temperature. The essential characteristics, rock mechanics and in-situ stress characteristics of a hot rock mass have been systematically studied by means of laboratory tests and true tri-axial physical simulation. The fracture initiation and propagation characteristics under different geological and engineering conditions are physically simulated, and the main controlling factors for the formation of a complex fracture network are revealed. The technology of low displacement for enhancing thermal cracking, gel fluid for expanding fracture and variable displacement cyclic injection for increasing a fracture network has been applied in the field, and good results have been achieved. Microseismic monitoring results demonstrate that complex fractures were formed in the field test, and the stimulation volume for heat exchanging reaches more than 3 million cubic meters. The research results play an important role in the stimulation technology of an enhanced geothermal system(EGS) and realize a breakthrough for power generation.

Hydraulic Fracturing-induced Seismicity at the Hot Dry Rock Site of the Gonghe Basin in China

Hot dry rock is becoming an important clean energy source. Enhanced geothermal systems(EGS) hold great promise for the potential to make a contribution to the energy inventory. However, one controversial issue associated with EGS is the impact of induced seismicity. In August 2019, a hydraulic stimulation experiment took place at the hot dry rock site of the Gonghe Basin in Qinghai, China. Earthquakes of different magnitudes of 2 or less occurred during the hydraulic stimulation. Correlations between hydraulic stimulation and seismic risk are still under discussion. Here, we analyze the hydraulic stimulation test and microseismic activity. We quantify the evolution of several parameters to explore the correlations between hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity, including hydraulic parameters, microseismic events, bvalue and statistical forecasting of event magnitudes. The results show that large-magnitude microseismic events have an upward trend with an increase of the total fluid volume. The variation of the b-value with time indicates that the stimulation experiment induces small amounts of seismicity. Forecasted magnitudes of events can guide operational decisions with respect to induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing operations, thus providing the basis for risk assessment of hot dry rock exploitation.

Micro-seismic Event Detection of Hot Dry Rock based on the Gated Recurrent Unit Model and a Support Vector Machine

Micro-seismic monitoring is one of the most critical technologies that guide hydraulic fracturing in hot dry rock resource development. Micro-seismic monitoring requires high precision detection of micro-seismic events with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Because of this requirement, we propose a recurrent neural network model named gated recurrent unit and support vector machine(GRU;VM). The proposed model ensures high accuracy while reducing the parameter number and hardware requirement in the training process. Since micro-seismic events in hot dry rock produce large wave amplitudes and strong vibrations, it is difficult to reverse the onset of each individual event. In this study, we utilize a support vector machine(SVM) as a classifier to improve the micro-seismic event detection accuracy. To validate the methodology, we compare the simulation results of the short-term-average to the long-term-average(STA/LTA) method with GRU;VM method by using hot dry rock micro-seismic event data in Qinghai Province, China. Our proposed method has an accuracy of about 95% for identifying micro-seismic events with low signal-to-noise ratios. By ignoring smaller micro-seismic events, the detection procedure can be processed more efficiently, which is able to provide a real-time observation on the types of hydraulic fracturing in the reservoirs.

Progress on Heat Transfer in Fractures of Hot Dry Rock Enhanced Geothermal System

Hot Dry Rock(HDR)is the most potential renewable geothermal energy in the future.Enhanced Geothermal System(EGS)is the most effective method for the development and utilization of HDR resources,and fractures are the main flow channels and one of the most important conditions for studying heat transfer process of EGS.Therefore,the heat transfer process and the heat transfer mechanism in fractures of EGS have been the hot spots of research.Due to the particularity of the mathematical models of heat transfer,research in this field has been at an exploratory stage,and its methods are mainly experimental tests and numerical simulations.This paper introduces the progress on heat transfer in fractures of Hot Dry Rock EGS in detail,provides a comparative analysis of the research results and prospects for future research directions:It is suggested that relevant scholars should further study the mathematical equations which are applicable to engineering construction of seepage heat transfer in irregular fractures of the rock mass,the unsteady heat transfer process between multiple fractures of the rock mass and the heat transfer mechanism of the complex three-dimensional models of EGS.

Fracture propagation laws of staged hydraulic fracture in fractured geothermal reservoir based on phase field model

Hydraulic fracturing is widely used in geothermal resource exploitation, and many natural fractures exist in hot dry rock reservoirs due to in-situ stress and faults. However, the infuence of natural fractures on hydraulic fracture propagation is not considered in the current study. In this paper, based on the phase feld model, a thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled hydraulic fracture propagation model was established to reveal the infuence of injection time, fracturing method, injection fow rate, and natural fracture distribution on the fracture propagation mechanism. The results show that fracture complexity increases with an increase in injection time. The stress disturbance causes the fracture initiation pressure of the second cluster signifcantly higher than that of the frst and third clusters. The zipper-type fracturing method can reduce the degree of stress disturbance and increase fracture complexity by 7.2% compared to simultaneous hydraulic fracturing. Both low and high injection fow rate lead to a decrease in fracture propagation time, which is not conducive to an increase in fracture complexity. An increase in the natural fracture angle leads to hydraulic fracture crossing natural fracture, but has a lesser efect on fracture complexity. In this paper, we analyzed the infuence of diferent factors on initiation pressure and fracture complexity, providing valuable guidance for the exploitation of geothermal resources.