Financial Decision-Making： The Roles of Intuition, Heuristics, and Impulses

This paper will add to an evolving new paradigm for financial decision-making by exploring the important roles that intuition, heuristics, and impulses play as a bridge between how the conscious and unconscious can work together more effectively in making better decisions. Historically, the roles of financial/accounting theory and cognitive psychology have been extensively studied and documented in attempting to explain individual financial decision-making. More recently, neuroscience has made substantial contributions to learning how prospective financial decisions and outcomes affect brain activity and observed decision-making behavior. The evidence from neuroscience indicates that up to 90% of our decisions are initiated at the unconscious level, which is only beginning to be investigated in a systematic manner. Integrating these findings from multiple disciplines, including recent contributions from neuroscience, has many implications, not only with respect to personal and corporate financial decisions and how markets work, but also as an essential component in the tool box of the general decision maker.

Empirical study on the financial repression of rural households＇ debit and credit and the effects on their welfare in less developed regions --Take Suqian city of Jiangsu province as an example

This paper carries out empirical analysis of the ration behavior of rural credit cooperatives in less developed regions in providing loan services to rural households. It also inspects the interaction between rural households＇ demand for credit and the loan supply from rural credit cooperatives with simultaneous discrete model. The performance of supporting agriculture through a new round reform of rural credit cooperatives is doubtable in this sample region.

Financial Knowledge,Capability to Guard Against Risks,and Rural Households’Selection of Financial Assets:An Empirical Study Based on Rural Households in China

Based on rural household data collected in two rounds of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2015 and 2017,respectively,this paper presents the likely impact of financial literacy and capability against risks on the breadth and depth of participation by rural households in risky financial markets.After instrumental variables are used to solve endogenous problems,we find that a good command of financial knowledge and a higher risk management level could significantly increase the probability and proportion of rural households investing in risky financial assets.A mechanism analysis further reveals that financial knowledge motivates rural households to engage in financial investments by helping them evaluate their capability to guard against risks.After multiple dimensions of indicators are employed to measure financial knowledge,the estimated results remain stable.In view of this,we have put forward some policy suggestions to increase the property income of rural households and promote the rural financial market.

How Financial Literacy Affect Household Wealth

This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how financial literacy affect household wealth. The results are as follows： financial literacy does have positive effects on household financial wealth and debt, but do not have significant effect on fixed wealth. Age growth, household income growth, self-owned house and seeking for financial consultant will significantly boost household wealth. Moreover, consumer＇ s self-confidence and risk aversion have positive effects on both fixed and financial assets, but do not have significant effect on debt.

How Financial Knowledge Affect Household Wealth

This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how tinanclal hteracy affect household wealth. The results are as follows： financial literacy does have positive effects on household financial wealth and debt, but do not have significant effect on fixed wealth. Age growth, household income growth, self-owned house and seeking for financial consultant will significantly boost household wealth. Moreover, consumer＇ s self-confidence and risk aversion have positive effects on both fixed and financial assets, but do not have significant effect on debt.

Estimating the effects of financial access on poor farmers in rural northern Nigeria

By recognizing the gap in the literature in examining the effects of financial resources and development outcomes at the household level,this paper examines whether the poorest income quintile would benefit most from programs aimed at increasing their access to financial services in rural northern Nigeria.Most households from this part of the world consist of farmers and,hence,are exposed to the vagaries of climate change.The data from 320 questionnaires administered in two rural communities(Rijau and Fakai)were analyzed using an ordered logit regression model.The results showed that access to financial services by using formal financial institutions and farmer savings clubs benefits vulnerable farmers(mostly women).The robustness check using the Brant test also confirmed that the parallel regression assumption of the model was not violated.A policy scenario that seeks to increase the delivery of financial services to rural farm households using community savings clubs and microfinance institution reforms for reaching the financially underserved was also found to benefit the poorest income quintile,hence,bringing them out of poverty.

A group decision model for credit granting in the financial market

Group decision models that contemplate the particularities of the decision-making process help organizations pursue their strategic objectives.In the financial market,the primary interest of organizations consists in ensuring financial returns,which guarantee stability for the organization.This study identifies major problems in the current process of credit granting in the financial market and argues the need for automatizing the organizational decision process while respecting the autonomy of decision-makers.To this end,this study proposes a group decision model based on the Strategic Choice Approach(SCA)for granting credit in a financial market organization.The results show that the adoption of the proposed model offers considerable gains in terms of organizational goals,transparency of the decision-making process,security for decision-makers,and reduction of organizational conflicts.

Credit granting sorting model for financial organizations

Considering the environment of risks and influences inherent in the decision-making process for credit-granting operations,it has become a matter of survival for financial organizations to seek to improve how they engage in effective decision-making to ensure that their returns on invested capital will meet the expectations established at the beginning of the process.A credit-granting sorting model for financial organizations is proposed.The model aggregates the perspectives of different decision-makers to support an organization in the process of credit analysis and,consequently,to improve its operationality.The decision-making model is based on the ELECTRE TRI-B multicriteria method.It sorts credit-granting proposals into three classes,namely credit approved,technical analysis,and credit rejected.The group decision emerges from the decision rules of the organization’s executive board.This new proposed approach to dealing with credit-granting results in the systematization of credit analysis,reduction of doubt among decision-makers,avoidance of the emergence of informal groups,reduction of conflicts within a financial organization,and external interferences.

数字金融、家庭债务与金融整治——基于P2P网贷风险专项整治的实证研究

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013年、2015年、2017年和2019年四期数据,构建Probit模型和固定效应模型分析数字金融对家庭债务的影响,并基于近年来金融整治的一个典型样本——P2P网贷风险专项整治,构建强度DID模型探讨实行金融整治政策能否有效降低家庭债务。研究发现:(1)数字金融的使用显著提高了家庭负债概率和债务水平;(2)金融整治之后,使用数字金融家庭的债务水平出现显著降低;(3)异质性分析显示,金融整治政策对使用数字金融的家庭的债务缓解作用,在中西部地区、贫困家庭和农村家庭中更为显著,在我国打赢脱贫攻坚战和实施乡村振兴战略进程中发挥了有益作用。研究结论对我国规范发展数字金融、防范金融风险、巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接等方面有着重要的政策启示。

数字基础设施建设能否缓解农村家庭金融脆弱性?——“宽带中国”示范城市的政策效应分析

农村家庭在信息获取上的劣势是其金融脆弱性比城市家庭更高的原因之一,数字基础设施的完善能够有效缓解农村家庭面临的信息约束与信息劣势,从而可以通过增加家庭收入和优化家庭资产负债配置来缓解农村家庭的金融脆弱性。采用中国家庭追踪调查2010—2018年的5期数据,运用多期双重差分模型进行政策效应分析,结果表明,“宽带中国”示范城市建设显著降低了农村家庭的金融脆弱性;机制分析发现,数字基础设施建设可以提高农村居民非农就业和购买商业保险的概率,并提高农村家庭的非农就业收入和保险参与度,即数字基础设施建设可以通过促进非农就业和保险参与两条路径来缓解农村家庭金融脆弱性;异质性分析结果显示,数字基础设施建设对户主为男性、户主未婚、平均文化程度较低、收入水平较低的农村家庭具有更为显著的金融脆弱性缓解作用。因此,应加强农村地区数字基础设施建设,并充分发挥“数字下乡”促进农民非农就业和保险参与的积极作用,有效缓解农村家庭金融脆弱性。

综合医疗制度改革对中国家庭财务脆弱性的影响

健康风险作为背景风险的重要组成部分,会给一般家庭造成明显的财务脆弱性。医疗制度作为重要的社会保障基础,可以为家庭提供关键的健康保障,从而有效缓解家庭财务脆弱性。引入2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),构建准自然实验研究体系,采用双重差分法检验了综合医改政策对家庭财务脆弱性的影响特征及其作用机制。研究发现,综合医改政策的实施显著缓解了家庭财务脆弱性,并且这一效应在城镇家庭、有老年人的家庭、儿童健康风险高的家庭、弱社会网络家庭、使用互联网的家庭以及社会信任度高的家庭中表现更加明显。同时,综合医改政策可以通过降低家庭医疗负担、提升家庭劳动参与、改变家庭风险态度等途径缓解家庭财务脆弱性。本文为评估综合医改政策及其对家庭财务影响的有效性提供了新视角,为进一步从微观层面深化医疗卫生体制改革提供了重要的政策启示。

金融素养对家庭金融参与的地区差异影响研究——基于数字普惠金融的调节效应

基于我国家庭金融调查数据与数字普惠金融指数,探究数字普惠金融的发展对金融素养与家庭金融参与关系的影响及其地区差异性。研究发现,金融素养的提高能显著促进家庭金融参与,数字普惠金融的发展可正向调节金融素养与家庭金融参与的关系,这一结果在增加工具变量和进行稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步研究发现,在“硬弱感地区”和“软弱感地区”,数字普惠金融的发展仅正向调节金融素养与家庭金融参与深度的关系;在“易感地区”,调节效应与总样本一致;在“无感地区”,调节效应不显著;金融素养与家庭金融参与深度的调节效应呈现“东部引领,中西部协调促进”的态势。

农村成长经历会影响城镇家庭储蓄率吗?——来自CHFS 2019的经验证据

由于城市与农村的经济金融环境存在显著差异,成年前在农村成长的城镇居民比在城市成长的城镇居民具有较高的风险厌恶程度和较低的金融知识水平,从而更加偏向低消费和高储蓄。采用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2019年数据,将“目前居住在城市地区且拥有非农业户口、18岁之前为农业户口”作为“拥有农村成长经历”的界定标准,实证检验城镇家庭户主的农村成长经历对其家庭储蓄率的影响,结果表明:户主拥有农村成长经历的城镇家庭比户主没有农村成长经历的城镇家庭有更高的储蓄率,风险态度和金融素养在其中发挥了中介作用,即拥有农村成长经历的户主会因较高的风险厌恶程度和较低的金融知识水平而导致其家庭储蓄率较高;农村成长经历对储蓄率的正向影响在户主受教育水平较高、家庭资产较少、经济发展水平较低地区(中西部地区)的家庭中更为显著。因此,需要从改善城市的经济金融状况(降低生活成本、增强社会保障、减少不确定性等)入手来释放城镇居民的消费需求,并通过改善风险态度、加强金融教育、缩小城乡差距等渠道来降低农村成长经历对城镇家庭储蓄率的正向影响。

金融素养、家庭资产配置与财富积累

作为一种重要的人力资本,金融素养水平的高低会对居民家庭的金融决策产生非常重要的影响。本文基于中国家庭金融调查(China Household Finance Survey,CHFS)数据,考察了金融素养对我国居民家庭资产配置和财富积累的影响。研究认为,金融素养的提升不仅有效促进了家庭对风险金融资产的持有,还促进了家庭持有投资性房产的概率和程度,而且,金融素养也显著促进家庭的财富积累。机制分析表明,金融素养会通过推动家庭配置风险金融资产和投资性房产获得较高的投资收益,以及推动家庭进行养老规划,从而促进家庭财富积累。异质性分析表明,相较于基础金融素养,高级金融素养对家庭资产配置、财富积累的促进作用更大;与农村家庭、中低财富家庭相比,金融素养促进城镇家庭、高财富家庭的资产配置和财富积累的作用更大。本文研究为提升居民金融素养、促进家庭资产配置优化和财富积累提供了重要的理论和政策涵义。

“挤入”抑或“挤出”:财政转移支付对消费的影响——基于家庭债务异质性视角

深刻理解家庭债务异质性背景下财政转移支付对家庭消费的影响及其作用机理,这对政府制定财政转移支付政策具有重要价值。使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014、2016和2018年三轮面板数据,以及2006—2021年省级面板数据,实证考察了家庭债务异质性视角下财政转移支付的消费效应。实证结果表明:财政转移支付的增加挤入了家庭消费,随着家庭债务水平的提高,财政转移支付对家庭消费的挤入效应减弱,且家庭债务异质性导致的家庭消费水平和消费结构对财政转移支付冲击的反应存在差异;家庭债务异质性视角下财政转移支付对消费的影响可通过流动性约束和预防性储蓄两个渠道发挥作用;不同区域的家庭债务水平对财政转移支付的消费效应具有不同的影响。因此,政府应该考虑区域债务水平的差异来制定财政转移支付政策,并合理控制家庭部门杠杆水平,降低家庭经济风险,提振消费。

数字金融发展对老年家庭金融健康的影响研究

基于宏微观匹配数据,从多维数字鸿沟视角实证检验数字金融发展对老年家庭金融健康的影响程度及其微观作用机制。结果显示:老年家庭金融健康水平整体呈现“东部高中西部低、城镇地区高农村地区低”的分布特征;数字金融发展能够有效促进老年家庭金融健康;作用机制在于数字金融发展能够缓解融资约束、优化风险识别能力,并提高金融操作便利性。进一步分析表明,数字金融发展还表现出一定的普惠性特征,但尚未打破空间限制,仅对城镇等互联网发达地区及人力资本水平较高的非贫困家庭的金融健康水平产生了更显著的作用,充分体现了破除老年数字鸿沟的紧迫性。

互联网使用是否助推了家庭金融市场参与?——基于CFPS数据的经验研究

作为经济参与最基本的单位,家庭的金融市场参与对其自身福利水平和金融市场健康发展都至关重要,而互联网的使用又对家庭金融市场的参与存在不可忽视的影响。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从风险金融市场和正规信贷市场两方面分析,发现互联网使用对家庭金融市场参与存在显著的正向效果。异质性分析发现,经常使用互联网学习、工作、社交以及商业活动能够显著促进家庭参与金融市场,而经常使用互联网娱乐没有显著影响;互联网对家庭金融市场参与的促进效应在城镇和高教育水平家庭中表现更为显著。机制分析表明,互联网使用能够通过提升家庭金融素养水平和信息渠道效应助推家庭金融市场参与。

人口老龄化影响家庭金融脆弱性的机制与缓解路径

近年来,我国人口老龄化程度不断加深。与此同时,家庭部门杠杆率持续攀升,债务风险加剧,金融脆弱性逐步显现。在此背景下,基于2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,通过构建包含偿债能力和资产流动性状况的家庭金融脆弱性指标,实证检验了人口老龄化对家庭金融脆弱性的影响。研究发现:人口老龄化显著加大了家庭陷入金融脆弱性的概率,其影响机制主要包括降低家庭劳动参与和家庭收入、增加医疗保健支出以及抑制人力资本投资;中西部家庭、受教育程度较低家庭以及中低净资产家庭更易遭受人口老龄化带来的负面冲击;积极参加养老保险、提升金融素养水平、积累家庭社会资本能够有效缓解人口老龄化对家庭金融脆弱性的不利影响。从人口老龄化视角探索家庭金融脆弱性的成因,能够为家庭抵御老龄化负面冲击和改善家庭金融福祉提供参考依据,也为防范化解金融风险的制度设计提供了有效思路。

家庭教育支出影响居民消费了吗?——基于家庭金融资产视角的研究

教育焦虑关系到家庭教育支出,而家庭教育支出则影响家庭有限资源的重新配置。文章选用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,通过构建线性回归模型深入探究家庭教育支出对居民消费的影响和作用机制。结果表明:随着家庭教育支出的逐步增加,居民的消费水平呈现显著下降趋势,并且家庭教育支出通过降低家庭金融资产持有量的方式,间接对居民消费产生了抑制效应。进一步研究发现在家庭金融资产中介效应细分维度中,股票、银行理财和储蓄存款持有量的中介效应更为显著,基金、债券和其他金融资产的中介效应不显著。异质性研究发现家庭教育支出对发展型消费、乡村地区居民消费、中部地区居民消费和低金融资产居民消费产生了更大的负面效应。

数字金融能力对家庭风险性金融资产配置的影响研究

利用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,从微观视角探讨数字金融能力对家庭风险性金融资产配置多样性和配置比重的影响效应和机制。研究发现数字金融能力能够显著提高家庭风险性金融资产的配置多样性和配置比重。就提高家庭风险金融资产配置多样性而言,数字金融能力的作用在城镇居民、东部地区家庭、较高教育水平和较高财富水平的家庭中更加显著;就提高家庭风险性金融资产配置比重而言,数字金融能力的作用在农民、中西部地区家庭、较低教育水平和较低财富水平的家庭中更加显著。数字金融能力能够通过提升家庭风险偏好以及促进家庭保险配置等路径优化家庭风险性金融资产配置。因此,应注重提升居民数字金融能力水平,普及数字技能和金融知识,加大数字金融基础设施建设投入,缩小“知识鸿沟”“数字鸿沟”,促进家庭参与金融市场。