This paper studies the effects of government land regulations(GLR)on housing supply elasticity in urban China.We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz(2010),then use land transaction microdata,satellite-gener...This paper studies the effects of government land regulations(GLR)on housing supply elasticity in urban China.We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz(2010),then use land transaction microdata,satellite-generated data,and the construction of instrumental variables to analyze the marginal effect of GLR,and finally calculate the housing supply elasticity caused by GLR.Our analysis finds that GLR is an important reason for the overall inelasticity of housing supply in 272 Chinese cities,which reduces housing supply elasticity from 1.457(elastic)to 0.872(inelastic).Housing supply elasticity caused by GLR has declined the most in first-tier cities and the eastern regions.The marginal effect of land use regulation is greater than that of land allocation and supp!y regulations.The initial development level and natural geographic constraint of each city also matter in China's housing supply market.展开更多
The house price in the Hong Kong SAR of China is well-known to be‘unaffordable’.This paper relates the macroeconomy with the housing market of Hong Kong and argues that the housing supply plays a vital role in expl...The house price in the Hong Kong SAR of China is well-known to be‘unaffordable’.This paper relates the macroeconomy with the housing market of Hong Kong and argues that the housing supply plays a vital role in explaining the phenomenon.This paper also shows that there are some practical challenges in understanding the housing supply of Hong Kong,including the potentially complicated ownership structure of real estate development.While the discussion centres on the situation of Hong Kong,its lesson may also apply to housing markets in other small open economies.展开更多
This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provi...This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases wealth inequality in the long term.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidences for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.展开更多
文摘This paper studies the effects of government land regulations(GLR)on housing supply elasticity in urban China.We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz(2010),then use land transaction microdata,satellite-generated data,and the construction of instrumental variables to analyze the marginal effect of GLR,and finally calculate the housing supply elasticity caused by GLR.Our analysis finds that GLR is an important reason for the overall inelasticity of housing supply in 272 Chinese cities,which reduces housing supply elasticity from 1.457(elastic)to 0.872(inelastic).Housing supply elasticity caused by GLR has declined the most in first-tier cities and the eastern regions.The marginal effect of land use regulation is greater than that of land allocation and supp!y regulations.The initial development level and natural geographic constraint of each city also matter in China's housing supply market.
基金The authors are grateful to Nan-Kuang Chen,Terence Tai Leung Chong,Qing He,Fred Kwan,Tommy Leung,Shane Su,Byron Tsang,Matthew Yiu,and the anonymous referee for helpful discussion.The authors also express their gratitude to City University of Hong Kong and Hong Kong Shue Yan University for their financial support.Part of the research was conducted when Charles Ka Yui Leung visited the Hoover Institution,whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged.Moreover,part of the work described in this paper is supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(Project No.:UGC/FDS15/B01/18).The usual disclaimer applies.
文摘The house price in the Hong Kong SAR of China is well-known to be‘unaffordable’.This paper relates the macroeconomy with the housing market of Hong Kong and argues that the housing supply plays a vital role in explaining the phenomenon.This paper also shows that there are some practical challenges in understanding the housing supply of Hong Kong,including the potentially complicated ownership structure of real estate development.While the discussion centres on the situation of Hong Kong,its lesson may also apply to housing markets in other small open economies.
文摘This paper constructs a dynamic model of household consumption decisions and accordingly designs empirical analyses to identify how infrastructure investment affects private consumption.The estimation results of provincial panel data reveal that infrastructure investment can not only indirectly promote household consumption through the income channel but also directly promote household consumption expansion through the expectations channel,with a significant"crowding-in"effect.However,the effect is significantly weaker in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity,showing the"crowding-out"pattern through the wealth channel.Household survey data provide an explanation for individual heterogeneity.Infrastructure investment has a greater pushing effect on house prices in provinces with a lower housing supply elasticity.Rapid house price growth has significant"crowding-out"effects on the consumption of wealthy households.This not only significantly weakens the driving effect of infrastructure investment on aggregate household consumption,but also increases wealth inequality in the long term.This paper explains how infrastructure investment affects household consumption and the corresponding role played by house prices,providing empirical evidences for theoretical studies related to macro-regulatory policies in China.
