Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in...Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of industrialized countries, which is described by extended Weibull model with agedependent stretched exponent. The maximum survival ten dency suggests that human survival dynamics may possess its intrinsic limit, beyond which survival is inevitably forbidden. Based on such tendency, we develop the model and explore the patterns in the maximum lifespan limits from industrialized countries during recent three decades. This analysis strategy is simple and useful to interpret the complicated human survival dynamics.展开更多
Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the human lifespan in the world and Japan. The diagnostic plots, whi...Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the human lifespan in the world and Japan. The diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were fitted to the human lifespan, validating the model. The human lifespan in the world and Japan had shape parameters of ?0.1623 and ?0.2949 and had an upper limit. The calculated upper limit in the world was 128.7 years. The world’s oldest record holder, Jeanne Calment’s age of 122.45 years, was close to the 260-year return level and was far from the calculated upper limit. The calculated upper limit in Japan was 120.4 years. Japan’s oldest record holder, Kane Tanaka’s age of 119 years in 2022, was the 500-year return level and was close to the upper limit. In the world, achieving the calculated limit was difficult, but the human lifespan will soon reach the upper limit in Japan.展开更多
Paul B. Baltes于1981年在马普人类发展研究所成立的毕生发展心理研究中心已经使毕生发展心理学成为了发展心理学中的一个重要的概念分支2004年以来,中心已经将研究项目扩展到了发展行为神经科学。中心主要在三个主题上开展研究工作:(1...Paul B. Baltes于1981年在马普人类发展研究所成立的毕生发展心理研究中心已经使毕生发展心理学成为了发展心理学中的一个重要的概念分支2004年以来,中心已经将研究项目扩展到了发展行为神经科学。中心主要在三个主题上开展研究工作:(1)研究作为成熟、学习和衰老的交互作用的结果,毕生的不同发展阶段中人类行为变化的规律:(2)发展能够整合来自于自身机能、时间序列、以及行为和神经层面分析等领域实证证据的理论和方法体系。(3)通过探索不同年龄可塑性上的差异寻找发展的机制。中心继续重点关注成人晚期和老年期,这为理论和实践上的创新提供了独特的机遇。同时,中心加强了对包括婴儿期和儿童早期在内的个体发展早期阶段的研究。本文报告了来自四项从行为和神经层面分析感觉和认知发展的研究的最新发现。展开更多
文摘Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of industrialized countries, which is described by extended Weibull model with agedependent stretched exponent. The maximum survival ten dency suggests that human survival dynamics may possess its intrinsic limit, beyond which survival is inevitably forbidden. Based on such tendency, we develop the model and explore the patterns in the maximum lifespan limits from industrialized countries during recent three decades. This analysis strategy is simple and useful to interpret the complicated human survival dynamics.
文摘Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the human lifespan in the world and Japan. The diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were fitted to the human lifespan, validating the model. The human lifespan in the world and Japan had shape parameters of ?0.1623 and ?0.2949 and had an upper limit. The calculated upper limit in the world was 128.7 years. The world’s oldest record holder, Jeanne Calment’s age of 122.45 years, was close to the 260-year return level and was far from the calculated upper limit. The calculated upper limit in Japan was 120.4 years. Japan’s oldest record holder, Kane Tanaka’s age of 119 years in 2022, was the 500-year return level and was close to the upper limit. In the world, achieving the calculated limit was difficult, but the human lifespan will soon reach the upper limit in Japan.
文摘Paul B. Baltes于1981年在马普人类发展研究所成立的毕生发展心理研究中心已经使毕生发展心理学成为了发展心理学中的一个重要的概念分支2004年以来,中心已经将研究项目扩展到了发展行为神经科学。中心主要在三个主题上开展研究工作:(1)研究作为成熟、学习和衰老的交互作用的结果,毕生的不同发展阶段中人类行为变化的规律:(2)发展能够整合来自于自身机能、时间序列、以及行为和神经层面分析等领域实证证据的理论和方法体系。(3)通过探索不同年龄可塑性上的差异寻找发展的机制。中心继续重点关注成人晚期和老年期,这为理论和实践上的创新提供了独特的机遇。同时,中心加强了对包括婴儿期和儿童早期在内的个体发展早期阶段的研究。本文报告了来自四项从行为和神经层面分析感觉和认知发展的研究的最新发现。
