Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variations of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulated by a Regional Air-Sea Coupled Model

The performance of a regional air-sea coupled model, comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS） and the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, in simulating the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） rainfall was investigated. Through comparisons of the model results among the coupled model, the uncoupled RIEMS, and observations, the impact of air-sea coupling on simulating the EASM was also evaluated. Results showed that the regional air sea coupled climate model performed better in simulating the spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology and produced more realistic variations of the EASM rainfall in terms of its amplitude and principal EOF modes. The coupled model also showed greater skill than the uncoupled RIEMS in reproducing the principal features of climatological intraseasonal oscillation （CISO） of EASM rainfall, including its dominant period, intensity, and northward propagation. Further analysis indicated that the improvements in the simulation of the EASM rainfall climatology and its seasonal variation in the coupled model were due to better simulation of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, while the improvements of CISO simulation were owing to the realistic phase relationship between the intraseasonal convection and the underlying SST resulting from the air-sea coupling.

Regional-scale Surface Air Temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium Simulated by the FGOALS-gl Climate System Model

The spatial patterns and regional-scale surface air temperature （SAT） changes during the last millennium,as well as the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） were simulated with a low-resolution version of Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Sea-ice （FGOALS-gl） model.The model was driven by both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents.Major features of the simulated past millennial Northern Hemisphere （NH） mean SAT variations,including the Medieval Climate Anomaly （MCA）,the Little Ice Age （LIA） and the 20th Century Warming （20CW）,were generally consistent with the reconstructions.The simulated MCA showed a global cooling pattern with reference to the 1961-90 mean conditions,indicating the 20CW to be unprecedented over the last millennium in the simulation.The LIA was characterized by pronounced coldness over the continental extratropical NH in both the reconstruction and the simulation.The simulated global mean SAT difference between the MCA and LIA was 0.14°C,with enhanced warming over high-latitude NH continental regions.Consistencies between the simulation and the reconstruction on regional scales were lower than those on hemispheric scales.The major features agreed well between the simulated and reconstructed SAT variations over the Chinese domain,despite some inconsistency in details among different reconstructions.The EASM circulation during the MCA was stronger than that during the LIA The corresponding rainfall anomalies exhibited excessive rainfall in the north but deficient rainfall in the south.Both the zonal and meridional thermal contrast were enhanced during the MCA.This temperature anomaly pattern favored a stronger monsoon circulation.

Drought fluctuations based on dendrochronology since 1786 for the Lenglongling Mountains at the northwestern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon region

The Lenglongling Mountains （LLM） located in northeastern part of the Tibet Plateau, belong to a marginal area of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and are sensitive to monsoon dynamics. Two tree-ring width chronologies developed from six sites of Picea crassifolia in the LLM were employed to study the regional drought variability. Correlation and temporal correlation analyses showed that relationships between the two chronologies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index （sc_PDSI） were significant and stable across time, demonstrating the strength of sc_PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. Based on the relationships, the mean sc_PDSI was reconstructed for the period from 1786 to 2013. Dry conditions prevailed during 1817-1819, 1829-1831, 1928-1931 and 1999-2001. Relatively wet periods were identified for 1792-1795 and 1954-1956. Spatial correlations with other fourteen precipitation/drought reconstructed series in previous studies revealed that in arid regions of Northwest China, long-term variability of moisture conditions was synchronous before the 1950s at a decadal scale （1791-1954）. In northwestern margin of the EASM, most of all selected reconstructions had better consistency in low-frequency variation, especially during dry periods, indicating similar regional moisture variations and analogous modes of climate forcing on tree growth in the region.

Mid-Holocene Climate Variations Recorded by Palaeolake in Marginal Area of East Asian Monsoon: A Multi-proxy Study

Traditionally, the mid-Holocene in most parts of China was thought to be warmer with higher precipitation, resulting from a strong Asian summer monsoon. However, some recent researches have proposed a mid-Holocene drought interval of millennial-scale in East Asian monsoon margin areas. Thus whether mid-Holocene was dry or humid remains an open issue. Here, Zhuyeze palaeolake, the terminal lake of the Shiyang River Drainage lying in Asian monsoon marginal areas, was selected for reconstructing the details of climate variations during the Holocene, especially mid-Holocene, on the basis of a sedimentological analysis. Qingtu Lake (QTL) section of 6.92m depth was taken from Zhuyeze palaeolake. Multi-proxy analysis of QTL section, including grain size, carbonate, TOC, C/N and δ13C of organic matter, was used to document regional climatic changes during 9-3 cal ka B.P. The record shows a major environmental change at 9.0-7.8 cal ka B.P., attributed to a climate trend towards warmth and humidity. This event was followed by a typical regional drought event which occurred during 7.8-7.5 cal ka B.P. And a warm and humid climate prevailed from 7.5 to 5.0 cal ka B.P., attributed to the warm/humid Holocene Optimum in this region. After that, the climate gradually became drier. Moreover, comparison of the climate record from this paper with the summer insolation at 30°N indicates that the climate pattern reflecting the Asian monsoon changes was caused by insolation change.

High-frequency climatic fluctuations over the past 30 ka in northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region, China

Whether millennial-to centennial-scale climate variations throughout the Holocene convey universal climate change is still widely debated.In this study,we aimed to obtain a set of high-resolution multi-proxy data(1343 particle size samples,893 total organic carbon samples,and 711 pollen samples)from an alluvial-lacustrine-aeolian sequence based on an improved age-depth model in the northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region to explore the dynamics of climate changes over the past 30 ka.Results revealed that the sequence not only documented the major climate events that corresponded well with those reported from the North Atlantic regions but also revealed many marked and high-frequency oscillations at the millennial-and centennial-scale.Specifically,the late stage of the last glacial lasting from 30.1 to 18.1 cal.ka BP was a dry and cold period.The deglacial(18.1-11.5 cal.ka BP)was a wetting(probably also warming)period,and three cold and dry excursions were found in the wetting trend,i.e.,the Oldest Dryas(18.1-15.8 cal.ka BP),the Older Dryas(14.6-13.7 cal.ka BP),and the Younger Dryas(12.5-11.5 cal.ka BP).The Holocene can be divided into three portions:the warmest and wettest early portion from 11.5 to 6.7 cal.ka BP,the dramatically cold and dry middle portion from 6.7 to 3.0 cal.ka BP,and the coldest and driest late portion since 3.0 cal.ka BP.Wavelet analysis results on the total pollen concentration revealed five substantially periodicities:c.5500,2200,900,380,and 210 a.With the exception of the c.5500 a quasi-cycle that was causally associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,the other four quasi-cycles(i.e.,c.2200,900,380,and 210 a)were found to be indirectly causally associated with solar activities.This study provides considerable insight into the dynamic mechanism of the Asian climate on a long-time scale and future climatic change.

THE ANALYSIS OF MECHANISM OF IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ONSET

RegCM4.3, a high-resolution regional climate model, which includes five kinds of aerosols(dust, sea salt,sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon), is employed to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) from 1995 to 2010 and the simulation data are used to study the possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.The results show that the regional climate model can well simulate the EASM and the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols. The EASM index is reduced by about 5% by the natural and anthropogenic aerosols and the monsoon onset time is also delayed by about a pentad except for Southeast China. The aerosols heat the middle atmosphere through absorbing solar radiation and the air column expands in Southeast China and its offshore areas. As a result, the geopotential height decreases and a cyclonic circulation anomaly is generated in the lower atmosphere. Northerly wind located in the west of cyclonic circulation weakens the low-level southerly wind in the EASM region. Negative surface radiative forcing due to aerosols causes downward motion and an indirect meridional circulation is formed with the low-level northerly wind and high-level southerly wind anomaly in the north of 25° N in the monsoon area, which weakens the vertical circulation of EASM. The summer precipitation of the monsoon region is significantly reduced,especially in North and Southwest China where the value of moisture flux divergence increases.

Impact of Different East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulations on Aerosol-Induced Climatic Effects

The different spatial distributions of aerosol-induced direct radiative forcing and climatic effects in a weak(2003)and a strong(2006)East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)circulation were simulated using a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3).Results showed that the atmospheric circulations of summer monsoon have direct relations with transport of aerosols and their climatic effects.Both the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA)and the surface-negative radiative forcing of aerosols were stronger in weak EASM circulations.The main difference in aerosol-induced negative forcing in two summers varied between 2 and 14 W m 2from the Sichuan Basin to North China,where a maximum in aerosol-induced negative forcing was also noticed in the EASM-dominated areas.The spatial difference in the simulated aerosol optical depth(AOD)in two summers generally showed the similar pictures.Surface cooling effects induced by aerosols were spatially more uniform in weak EASM circulations and cooler by about 1–4.5 C.A preliminary analysis here indicated that a weaker low-level wind speed not conducive to the transport and diffusion of aerosols could make more contributions to the differences in the two circulations.

The Statistical Significance Test of Regional Climate Change Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Variation in West China

The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover （LULC） changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database （GLCCD） that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are： （1） The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. （2） The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. （3） The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. （4） The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.

基于EOF的1951-2020年东亚季风区降水特征及其对夏季风不同配置的响应研究

东亚季风区夏季降水受季风影响显著,不同季风配置通过影响区域水汽输送,在东亚季风区形成不同的降水格局,降水格局的变化容易引起旱涝灾害的发生。本文基于经验正交函数(EOF)分析,利用全球降水气候中心(GPCC)降水资料、美国国家环境预测中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料和不同夏季风指数,分析了1951-2020年东亚季风区夏季降水格局,进一步结合相关分析、水汽通量分析等,研究了4种夏季风强弱不同配置对东亚季风区夏季降水的影响。结果表明:(1)1951-2020年东亚季风区降水经历了先减少后增加的变化。EOF分析较好地展现了东亚季风区夏季降水的时空分布,东亚季风区夏季降水主要表现为南北向“-、+、-”的三极型分布与南北方降水反相变化的偶极型特征;东亚季风区夏季降水异常主要发生在三极型降水结构的相位转换上,其次是偶极型的相位转换;(2)东亚季风区夏季降水异常是东亚季风、南亚季风、西风环流以及西太平洋季风等系统共同作用的结果。导致东亚季风区降水异常增加(减少)的季风配置主要为配置1:西太平洋季风强,东亚季风和西风弱(配置2:西风强,东亚季风和南亚季风弱);(3)配置1时,西太副高偏南偏西,中高纬形成西风槽,季风区南方季风较强,容易通过切变线以及抬升作用在季风区中部形成降水,导致异常降水增加,配置2时,西风强劲,南方水汽动力不足,无法深入大陆,造成异常降水减少。本文研究结果为气候变化背景下,探究东亚季风区异常降水机理提供理论基础,也为应对区域极端降水事件以及旱涝灾害防治工作提供重要的科学参考依据。

Short-term climatic impacts of afforestation in the East Asian monsoon region

The influence of changes in vegetation cover on short-term climate over the East Asian monsoon region is simulated using the Community Climate System Model Version 3.5.The results show the annual mean surface air temperature significantly decreases by 0.93°C in response to afforestation over the East Asian monsoon region.Also,surface air temperature decreases by 1.46 and 0.40°C in summer and winter,respectively.The cooling is caused by enhanced evapotranspiration(ET) produced by increased forest cover.Evapotranspiration is greater in summer than in winter,so summer cooling is greater than winter cooling.The annual mean precipitation increases in response to afforestation,with a maximum of 7% in April.Water vapor increases significantly because of greater latent heat flux release.Meanwhile,afforestation leads to higher surface roughness,which decreases surface wind speed and induces an ascending air motion.These factors can produce more clouds and precipitation.Moreover,the surface albedo and the reflective solar radiation are reduced in response to afforestation.

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF PERSISTENT DROUGHT/FLOOD EVENTS IN SUMMER OVER THE TWO-LAKE REGION OF CHINA

Based on the daily regional mean rainfall,the Z-index method is used to identify persistent flood and drought events lasting for at least 10 days over a region where Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sit(referred to as the"two-lake region"hereafter).The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)reanalysis data are then utilized to perform a preliminary diagnostic analysis on these events.The results indicate that the composite standardized geopotential height at 500 hPa presents two different meridional wave trains from north to south over the East Asian-Pacific region,i.e.,a"-+-"pattern for the droughts and a"+-+"pattern for the floods,respectively.The developing,maintaining and decaying phases in the drought and flood events are closely related to the intensity and location of a subtropical high and an extra-tropical blocking high.It is shown that the East Asian summer monsoon is strong(weak)with the occurrence of persistent drought(flood)events.Droughts(floods)are accompanied by a weak(strong)tropical convergent system and a strong(weak)subtropical convergent system.Furthermore,the persistent drought(flood)events are associated with a divergence(convergence)of vertically integrated water vapor flux.In the vertical profile of water vapor flux,divergence(convergence)in the mid-and lower-levels and convergence(divergence)in the higher levels are evident in the droughts(floods).Both the divergence in the droughts and the convergence in floods are strongest at 850 hPa.

Efects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Processes in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.

亚洲夏季风对江淮梅雨入梅早晚的影响

入梅时间早晚直接影响梅雨期雨量的多寡,其准确预测对农业、交通和旅游业等气象服务具有重要意义。利用中国气象局2017年发布的《梅雨监测业务规定》中的入梅日期资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究1981—2020年江淮梅雨入梅早晚的气候特征,分析亚洲夏季风对入梅日早晚的影响。结果表明:(1)江淮梅雨入梅日具有显著的年际变化特征,平均入梅日为6月21日,标准差为11 d,最早和最晚入梅日相差39 d。(2)入梅日与南亚夏季风SASM(South Asian Summer Monsoon)呈显著负相关,与东亚夏季风EASM(East Asian Summer Monsoon)呈正相关。强SASM年,南亚高压偏东,中高纬度高空急流偏南,江淮地区为水汽辐合区,有利于江淮区入梅偏早;强EASM年,西太副高偏北偏强,南风气流旺盛,水汽在华南和东北地区辐合,在江淮地区辐散,不利于梅雨的发生。(3)由于亚洲夏季风具有协同爆发的特点,强SASM-弱EASM协同年,平均入梅日较常年平均偏早4 d,与之相反的协同年入梅日偏晚11.6 d。强SASM-弱EASM年,江淮地区位于高空急流出口右侧,伊朗高压位置偏东,高空受小槽东移影响,低层南亚夏季风发展旺盛,水汽在江淮地区辐合,有利于入梅偏早。弱SASM-强EASM年,中高纬度高空急流轴偏北,江淮地区受脊前偏北气流控制,低层亚洲夏季风辐合区偏东,江淮地区仅为过路水汽通道,不利于江淮区入梅。故亚洲夏季风的强弱与协同发展对江淮梅雨入梅早晚具有一定的指示意义。

东亚夏季风期间水汽输送与西北干旱的关系

利用西北(区)168个测站1961—2000年6～9月月平均降水与温度资料,采用EOF、REOF方法分析了近40年降水异常特征,同时利用同期NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分析了强(弱)夏季风年西北区水汽通量场的特征及夏季风西北影响区的净水汽通量。结果表明:西北区6～9月降水可分为7个气候异常区;东亚夏季风对我国降水的影响主要位于100°E以东的地区;东亚夏季风西北影响区降水的水汽来源于南风水汽通量;强夏季风年,到达东亚夏季风西北影响区的水汽通量显著增加,该区降水偏多,弱夏季风年则反之。

中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风和大气湿度的关系

利用1961—2013年中国地面台站长期观测资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以华北、江淮和华南为研究区,分析了中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风以及大气湿度的关系。结果表明:(1)冬季霾日与东亚冬季风强度成显著的负相关。首先,东亚冬季风强度的减弱使得地面风速减小,进而导致冬季霾日增多。其中,华北7—8 m/s最大风速日数和江淮6—8 m/s最大风速日数的减少,及华南≤2 m/s最大风速日数的增多对各区冬季霾日的增多作用较大。其次,东亚冬季风减弱引起冬季气温的持续升高,易导致冬季霾日的增多,这在华北地区较之在江淮和华南更为明显。(2)由于气候变暖,冬季气温升高,使得近地面相对湿度减小。在江淮和华南地区,冬季霾日的增多与近地面相对湿度的减小显著相关,而在华北地区这种相关较弱。(3)冬季气温升高也有利于大气层结稳定度的增强,3个区域冬季霾日的增多均与大气层结稳定度的增强显著相关,特别是与对流层中低层(850—500 hPa)大气饱和度的降低显著相关。(4)冬季霾日数变化与区域水汽输送关系密切。其中,华北地区的冬季霾日数与水汽总收入成显著正相关,江淮地区与纬向水汽收入成显著正相关,与经向水汽收入成显著负相关,华南地区与经向水汽收入成显著负相关。

6kaB.P.东亚区域气候模拟及其变化机制探讨

中全新世是地质历史上最近的温暖时期。文章利用包含较详细陆面过程的区域气候模式 ,通过分别加入现代植被和根据花粉化石资料转化的东亚地区古植被 ,模拟了 6kaB .P .东亚季风气候 ,并研究了植被变化对东亚气候的影响。由区域气候模拟得到的较高分辨率的气候演变图像表明 6kaB .P .太阳辐射季节循环增大 ,高纬度地区积雪、海冰减少 ,极地海洋升温 ,导致冬季大陆冷高压减弱 ,使中国冬季温度降低幅度大大减小。模拟中加入恢复的古植被造成地表反照率减小 ,使得冬季进一步升温 ,这不但突破了PMIP众多模拟的东亚 6kaB .P .冬季降温的局限 ,而且使模拟温度变化的季节特征与古地质资料更为吻合。中全新世东亚大陆全年升温导致东亚夏季风强盛、冬季风减弱 ;降水及有效降水增加 ,降水带向西、向北扩张。与PMIP模拟相比 ,由于模式分辨率的提高 ,该工作模拟出了中国东部区域性降水增加的特征并得到了较为精细的气候变化空间分布。

四川盆地夏季降水区域差异及其与季风的联系初探

基于四川盆地逐日气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了近46年四川盆地夏季降水变化的区域差异及其与东亚夏季风和高原夏季风的联系。结果表明:盆西和盆东夏季降水序列与全国夏季降水的相关分布分别与我国夏季降水第Ⅰ、Ⅱ类雨型分布相类似。使用一元回归方法,分别得到了与东亚夏季风和高原夏季风相关的环流场,通过对两个环流场季风指数高低值年份的合成分析发现,东亚夏季风的影响主要体现在西北气流和东南气流的辐合带在我国东部地区位置变动以及强度变化;高原夏季风对环流场的影响体现在华北到河套地区一带风向的转换。着重分析了1961和1998年夏季与东亚、高原夏季风相关的环流场,发现东亚夏季风与高原夏季风都对四川盆地夏季降水有重要影响,其中盆西夏季降水主要与高原夏季风有关,盆东夏季降水与东亚夏季风和高原夏季风都有关,但以东亚夏季风为主。

东亚和南亚夏季风对中国季风区径流深影响

为揭示中国东部季风区径流深对东亚和南亚夏季风变化的响应规律,建立了八大流域VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型以及应用了Mann-Kendall和局部加权回归分析(Locally Weighted Scatter Plot Smoothing,LOWESS)相关性检验方法,并分析了径流深系数空间变化情况。结果表明:东亚夏季风与径流深显著性相关范围要明显大于南亚夏季风,主要位于长江流域以北和松花江流域以南的广大地区以及华南部分地区,并分别成正相关和负相关;而南亚夏季风与径流深显著性正负相关的区域则分别位于华南地区及长江流域上游部分地区。此外,季风区径流深系数空间差异明显,易产流区主要位于长江流域及东南沿海地区,而黄河及海河流域则产流较难。因此,对东亚及南亚夏季风的研究可为预测中国东部不同地区的水文过程及水资源变化提供重要的科学参考。

夏季风北推和强度对我国北方夏季降水影响的年代际特征

利用近50年NCEP/NCAR的候平均风场和比湿场资料,计算了东亚夏季风北界的位置,发现季风北界存在着明显的年代际变化,季风北界偏北的年份集中于1950年代和1960年代,而偏南的年份则集中于1980年代和1990年代,并且各个季风区的季风北界的年代际变化比较一致.利用这些资料定义了'区域夏季风指数',更好地反映东亚夏季风的强弱和北方各地区旱涝之间的关系;用合成分析方法比较了夏季风强度与北方各干旱半干旱区域旱涝变化的关系,说明华北地区最为敏感,区域季风指数与7,8月降水量的关系最好.最后用小波分析方法,讨论了这些区域的夏季风强度和夏季降水量在不同时间尺度上的关系,发现区域季风强度指数和各季风区降水量的关系在15年左右的年代际尺度上关系最好,在3～5年的年际尺度上也有比较好的相关.这些结果对于北方地区的气候趋势预测有一定参考价值.