Typhoon/Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Disasters: Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation

Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future ty-phoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic coasts, U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.

Lipid concentration and composition in xylem sap of woody angiosperms from a tropical savanna and a seasonal rainforest

Lipids may play an important role in preventing gas embolisms by coating nanobubbles in xylem sap.Few studies on xylem sap lipids have been reported for temperate plants,and it remain unclear whether sap lipids have adaptational significance in tropical plants.In this study,we quantify the lipid composition of xylem sap for angiosperm species from a tropical savanna(seven species)and a seasonal rainforest(five species)using mass spectrometry.We found that all twelve species studied contained lipids in their xylem sap,including galactolipids,phospholipids and triacylglycerol,with a total lipid concentration ranging from 0.09 to 0.26 nmol/L.There was no difference in lipid concentration or composition between plants from the two sites,and the lipid concentration was negatively related to species’open vessel volume.Furthermore,savanna species showed little variation in lipid composition between the dry and the rainy season.These results support the hypothesis that xylem sap lipids are derived from the cytoplasm of individual conduit cells,remain trapped inside individual conduits,and undergo few changes in composition over consecutive seasons.A xylem sap lipidomic data set,which includes 12 tropical tree species from this study and 11 temperate tree species from literature,revealed no phylogenetic signals in lipid composition for these species.This study fills a knowledge gap in the lipid content of xylem sap in tropical trees and provides additional support for their common distribution in xylem sap of woody angiosperms.It appears that xylem sap lipids have no adaptive significance.

Information for Authors Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedcine

GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.

Unequal Distribution of Innovation Efforts for Neglected Tropical Diseases: The Role of Funding Evaluation Criteria

Background: International research and innovation efforts for neglected tropical diseases have increased in recent decades due to disparities in overall health research funding in relation to global burden of disease. However, within the field of neglected tropical diseases some seem far more neglected than others. In this research the aim is to investigate the distribution of resources and efforts, as well as the mechanisms that underpin funding allocation for neglected tropical diseases. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted to establish a comprehensive overview of known indicators for innovation efforts related to a wide range of neglected tropical diseases. Articles were selected based on a subjective evaluation of their relevance, the presence of original data, and the breadth of their scope. This was followed by thirteen in-depth open-ended interviews with representatives of private, public and philanthropic funding organizations, concerning evaluation criteria for funding research proposals. Results: The findings reveal a large difference in the extent to which the individual diseases are neglected with notable differences between absolute and relative efforts. Criteria used in the evaluation of research proposals relate to potential impact, the probability of success and strategic fit. Private organizations prioritize strategic fit and economic impact;philanthropic organizations prioritize short-term societal impact;and public generally prioritize the probability of success by accounting for follow-up funding and involvement of industry. Funding decisions of different types of organizations are highly interrelated. Conclusions: This study shows that the evaluation of funding proposals introduces and retains unequal funding distribution, reinforcing the relative neglect of diseases. Societal impact is the primary rationale for funding but application of it as a funding criterion is associated with significant challenges. Furthermore, current application of evaluation criteria leads to a primary focus on short-term impact. Through current practice, the relatively most neglected diseases will remain so, and a long-term strategy is needed to resolve this.

The Contribution of United States Aircraft Reconnaissance Data to the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Intensity Data:An Evaluation of Homogeneity

This paper investigates the homogeneity of United States aircraft reconnaissance data and the impact of these data on the homogeneity of the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data for the seasons 1949-1987 generated by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The evaluation of the reconnaissance data shows that the minimum central sea level pressure(MCP)data are relatively homogeneous,whereas the maximum sustained wind(MSW)data show both overestimations and spurious abrupt changes.Statistical comparisons suggest that both the reconnaissance MCP and MSW were well incorporated into the CMA TC best track dataset.Although no spurious abrupt changes were evident in the reconnaissance-related best track MCP data,two spurious changepoints were identified in the remainder of the best-track MCP data.Furthermore,the influence of the reconnaissance MSWs seems to extend to the best track MSWs unrelated to reconnaissance,which might reflect the optimistic confidence in making higher estimates due to the overestimated extreme wind“observations”.In addition,the overestimation of either the reconnaissance MSWs or the best track MSWs was greater during the early decades compared to later decades,which reflects the important influence of reconnaissance data on the CMA TC best track dataset.The wind-pressure relationship(WPR)used in the CMA TC best track dataset is also evaluated and is found to overestimate the MSW,which may lead to inhomogeneity within the dataset between the aircraft reconnaissance era and the satellite era.

Alignment of Track Oscillations during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change research.Based on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane intensity.It is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated TCs.While the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before RI.It is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after RI.The track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core region.This study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.

A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes involved.Here,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network.In time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical efficiency.The LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–2017.The transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–21.The predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC intensity.The new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction data.The intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h forecast.Particularly at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

Westerlies Affecting the Seasonal Variation of Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.

Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea

The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region.

Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation

This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

Subtropical forest macro-decomposers rapidly transfer litter carbon and nitrogen into soil mineral-associated organic matter

Background:Forest soils in tropical and subtropical areas store a significant amount of carbon.Recent framework to assess soil organic matter(SOM)dynamics under evolving global conditions suggest that dividing bulk SOM into particulate and mineral-associated organic matter(POM vs.MAOM)is a promising method for identifying how SOM contributes to reducing global warming.Soil macrofauna,earthworms,and millipedes have been found to play an important role in facilitating SOM processes.However,how these two co-existing macrofaunae impac the litter decomposition process and directly impact the formation of POM and MAOM remains unclear.Methods:Here,we set up a microcosm experiment,which consisted of 20 microcosms with four treatments earthworm and litter addition(E),millipedes and litter addition(M),earthworm,millipedes,and litter addition(E+M),and control(only litter addition)in five replicates.The soil and litter were sterilized prior to beginning the incubation experiment to remove any existing microbes.After incubating the samples for 42 days,the litte properties(mass,C,and N contents),soil physicochemical properties,as well as the C and N contents,and POM and MAOM^(13)C abundance in the 0–5 and 5–10 cm soil layers were measured.Finally,the relative influences o soil physicochemical and microbial properties on the distribution of C and N in the soil fractions were analyzed Results:The litter mass,C,and N associated with all four treatments significantly decreased after incubation especially under treatment E+M(litter mass:-58.8%,litter C:-57.0%,litter N:-75.1%,respectively),while earthworm biomass significantly decreased under treatment E.Earthworm or millipede addition alone showed no significant effects on the organic carbon(OC)and total nitrogen(TN)content in the POM fraction,but join addition of both significantly increased OC and TN regardless of soil depth.Importantly,all three macrofauna treatments increased the OC and TN content and decreased the^(13)C abundance in the MAOM fraction.More than65%of the total variations in the distribution of OC and TN throughout the two fractions can be explained by a combination of soil physicochemical and microbial properties.Changes in the OC distribution in the 0–5 cm soi layer are likely due to a decrease in soil pH and an increase in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi(AMF),while those in the 5–10 cm layer are probably caused by increases in soil exchangeable Ca and Mg,in addition to fungi and gram-negative(GN)bacteria.The observed TN distribution changes in the 0–5 cm soil likely resulted from a decrease in soil pH and increases in AMF,GN,and gram-negative(GP)bacteria,while TN distribution changes in the 5–10 cm soil could be explained by increases in exchangeable Mg and GN bacteria.Conclusions:The results indicate that the coexistence of earthworms and millipedes can accelerate the litte decomposition process and store more C in the MAOM fractions.This novel finding helps to unlock the processe by which complex SOM systems serve as C sinks in tropical forests and addresses the importance of soil mac rofauna in maintaining C-neutral atmospheric conditions under global climate change.

Contrasts of bimodal tropical instability waves(TIWs)-induced wind stress perturbations in the Pacific Ocean among observations,ocean models,and coupled climate models

The coupling between wind stress perturbations and sea surface temperature(SST)perturbations induced by tropical instability waves(TIWs)in the Pacific Ocean has been revealed previously and proven crucial to both the atmosphere and ocean.However,an overlooked fact by previous studies is that the loosely defined“TIWs”actually consist of two modes,including the Yanai wave-based TIW on the equator(hereafter eTIW)and the Rossby wave-based TIW off the equator(hereafter vTIW).Hence,the individual feedbacks of the wind stress to the bimodal TIWs remain unexplored.In this study,individual coupling relationships are established for both eTIW and v TIW,including the relationship between the TIW-induced SST perturbations and two components of wind stress perturbations,and the relationship between the TIW-induced wind stress perturbation divergence(curl)and the downwind(crosswind)TIW-induced SST gradients.Results show that,due to different distributions of eTIW and vTIW,the coupling strength induced by the eTIW is stronger on the equator,and that by the vTIW is stronger off the equator.The results of any of eTIW and vTIW are higher than those of the loosely defined TIWs.We further investigated how well the coupling relationships remained in several widely recognized oceanic general circulation models and fully coupled climate models.However,the coupling relationships cannot be well represented in most numerical models.Finally,we confirmed that higher resolution usually corresponds to more accurate simulation.Therefore,the coupling models established in this study are complementary to previous research and can be used to refine the oceanic and coupled climate models.

Track-Pattern-Based Characteristics of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Based on the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)Tokyo-Typhoon Center best-track data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset,extratropical transitioning(ET)tropical cyclones(ETCs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)during 1951–2021 are classified into six clusters using the fuzzy c-means clustering method(FCM)according to their track patterns.The characteristics of the six hard-clustered ETCs with the highest membership coefficient are shown.Most tropical cyclones(TCs)that were assigned to clusters C2,C5,and C6 made landfall over eastern Asian countries,which severely threatened these regions.Among landfalling TCs,93.2%completed their ET after landfall,whereas 39.8%of ETCs completed their transition within one day.The frequency of ETCs over the WNP has decreased in the past four decades,wherein cluster C5 demonstrated a significant decrease on both interannual and interdecadal timescales with the expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).This large-scale circulation pattern is favorable for C2 and causes it to become the dominant track pattern,owning to it containing the largest number of intensifying ETCs among the six clusters,a number that has increased insignificantly over the past four decades.The surface roughness variation and three-dimensional background circulation led to C5 containing the maximum number of landfalling TCs and a minimum number of intensifying ETCs.Our results will facilitate a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of ET events and associated environment background fields,which will benefit the effective monitoring of these events over the WNP.

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones in Dongzhaigang Mangroves,China

Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.

Global Well-Posedness of the Fractional Tropical Climate Model

In this paper, we consider the Cauchy problem of 3-dimensional tropical climate model. This model reflects the interaction and coupling among the barotropic mode u, the first baroclinic mode v of the velocity and the temperature θ. The systems with fractional dissipation studied here may arise in the modeling of geophysical circumstances. Mathematically these systems allow simultaneous examination of a family of systems with various levels of regularization. The aim here is the global strong solution with the least dissipation. By energy estimate and delicate analysis, we prove the existence of global solution under three different cases: first, with the help of damping terms, the global strong solution of the system with Λ2au, Λ2βv and Λ2γ θ for;and second, the global strong solution of the system for with damping terms;finally, the global strong solution of the system for without any damping terms, which improve the known existence theory for this system.

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds.It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution.In contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall.These led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall.These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC.Our study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC.Additionally,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

Comparison of tropical cyclone thermal structures derived from ATMS and synthetic AMSU-A/MHS

热带气旋(TC)的暖心反映了其强度和变化.微波探测数据被广泛用于探测TC暖心,但观测到的TC暖心强度可能因仪器而异.本研究利用先进技术微波探测仪(ATMS)的过采样数据重采样至与先进微波探测仪(AMSU-A)一致的亮温,称为类AMSU数据.通过对比发现,ATMS的观测更加细致,较好地刻画了TC眼区和云带.使用ATMS和类-AMSU数据反演多个TC的暖心发现,在250 hPa,使用ATMS数据反演的暖心强度比类-AMSU高约1-2K,并且其暖心结构更详细.

The Tibetan Plateau bridge:Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发.5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构,为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应,夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关,高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用.另一方面,这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中,以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.