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Dynamic and Power Generation Features of A Wind-Wave Hybrid System Consisting of A Spar-Type Wind Turbine and An Annular Wave Energy Converter in Irregular Waves 被引量:1
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作者 ZHOU Bin-zhen ZHENG Zhi +3 位作者 HONG Miao-wen JIN Peng WANG Lei CHEN Fan-ting 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第6期923-933,共11页
Combining wave energy converters(WECs)with floating offshore wind turbines proves a potential strategy to achieve better use of marine renewable energy.The full coupling investigation on the dynamic and power generati... Combining wave energy converters(WECs)with floating offshore wind turbines proves a potential strategy to achieve better use of marine renewable energy.The full coupling investigation on the dynamic and power generation features of the hybrid systems under operational sea states is necessary but limited by numerical simulation tools.Here an aero-hydro-servo-elastic coupling numerical tool is developed and applied to investigate the motion,mooring tension,and energy conversion performance of a hybrid system consisting of a spar-type floating wind turbine and an annular wave energy converter.Results show that the addition of the WEC has no significant negative effect on the dynamic performance of the platform and even enhances the rotational stability of the platform.For surge and pitch motion,the peak of the spectra is originated from the dominating wave component,whereas for the heave motion,the peak of the spectrum is the superposed effect of the dominating wave component and the resonance of the system.The addition of the annular WEC can slightly improve the wind power by making the rotor to be in a better position to face the incoming wind and provide considerable wave energy production,which can compensate for the downtime of the offshore wind. 展开更多
关键词 wind energy wave energy hybrid system MOTION power generation
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Short-term power generation scheduling rules for cascade hydropower stations based on hybrid algorithm 被引量:2
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作者 Wei XIE Chang-ming JI +1 位作者 Zi-jun YANG Xiao-xing ZHANG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2012年第1期46-58,共13页
Power generation dispatching is a large complex system problem with multi-dimensional and nonlinear characteristics. A mathematical model was established based on the principle of reservoir operation. A large quantity... Power generation dispatching is a large complex system problem with multi-dimensional and nonlinear characteristics. A mathematical model was established based on the principle of reservoir operation. A large quantity of optimal scheduling processes were obtained by calculating the daily runoff process within three typical years, and a large number of simulated daily runoff processes were obtained using the progressive optimality algorithm (POA) in combination with the genetic algorithm (GA). After analyzing the optimal scheduling processes, the corresponding scheduling rules were determined, and the practical formulas were obtained. These rules can make full use of the rolling runoff forecast and carry out the rolling scheduling. Compared with the optimized results, the maximum relative difference of the annual power generation obtained by the scheduling rules is no more than 1%. The effectiveness and practical applicability of the scheduling rules are demonstrated by a case study. This study provides a new perspective for formulating the rules of power generation dispatching. 展开更多
关键词 scheduling rule short-time power generation dispatching hybrid algorithm cascade hydropower station
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Rolling Generation Dispatch Based on Ultra-short-term Wind Power Forecast
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作者 Qiushi Xu Changhong Deng 《Energy and Power Engineering》 2013年第4期630-635,共6页
The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A roll... The power systems economic and safety operation considering large-scale wind power penetration are now facing great challenges, which are based on reliable power supply and predictable load demands in the past. A rolling generation dispatch model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast was proposed. In generation dispatch process, the model rolling correct not only the conventional units power output but also the power from wind farm, simultaneously. Second order Markov chain model was utilized to modify wind power prediction error state (WPPES) and update forecast results of wind power over the remaining dispatch periods. The prime-dual affine scaling interior point method was used to solve the proposed model that taken into account the constraints of multi-periods power balance, unit output adjustment, up spinning reserve and down spinning reserve. 展开更多
关键词 wind power generation power System ROLLING generation DISPATCH Ultra-short-term Forecast Markov Chain Model Prime-dual AFFINE Scaling Interior Point Method
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Hybrid PV/Wind/Diesel Based Distributed Generation for an Off-Grid Rural Village in Afghanistan
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作者 Gul Ahmad Ludin Hidehito Matayoshi +2 位作者 Mir Sayed Shah Danish Atsushi Yona Tomonobu Senjyu 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2017年第2期85-94,共10页
Afghanistan has a tremendous resource potential of renewable energy especially solar and the wind. Therefore, utilization of these resources has a special rule for the remote areas where access to the electrical grid ... Afghanistan has a tremendous resource potential of renewable energy especially solar and the wind. Therefore, utilization of these resources has a special rule for the remote areas where access to the electrical grid or secure power supply is a dream for most of the people. This paper presents a feasibility and usefulness of hybrid power generation based on PV/wind/diesel generator for an off-grid rural village that feeds the load at a rate of average 7.9 kWh/day with 1.32 kW peak load. GsT (geospatial toolkit) is used to obtain the solar and wind data of the site. Windographer software is used to analyze the wind resource data of the site. HOMER Pro software package is used to select the suitable and reliable hybrid generation system and calculate the optimal capacities and costs of the components. Through the study, it is found that this state of the art adaptation could provide vast opportunities for off-grid rural communities such as in Afghanistan where enough high penetration of renewable energy is available. 展开更多
关键词 Rural village electrification hybrid power generation solar wind diesel generator.
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Research on Comparisons of New Clean Power Generation Technologies
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作者 By Xiong Yangheng School of Power and Mechanical Engineering, Wuhan University 《Electricity》 2005年第A04期24-31,共8页
On the basis of introducing clean power generation technologies, the author calculated and analyzed the investment, economy and environmental protection of these technologies, posed his views of giving the priorities ... On the basis of introducing clean power generation technologies, the author calculated and analyzed the investment, economy and environmental protection of these technologies, posed his views of giving the priorities to the development of supercritical and ultra-supercritical pressure coal-fired power generation technologies and taking vigorous action to nuclear power generation technology within the following 5-10 years, exploiting wind power within the following 10-15 years, and suggested that the installed capacity of nuclear power reach 80-100 GW and that of wind power reach 50-80 GW by 2020. 展开更多
关键词 clean power generation technologies ultra-supercritical pressure coal-fired power generation wind power generation techno-economic comparisons
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Research on Wind Farm Participation in Power Grid AGC Control
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作者 Han XuShan Chen Fei 《Electricity》 2011年第3期27-29,共3页
Since wind power has the features of being intermittent and unpredictable, and usually needs transmission over long distances, grid integration of large-scale wind power will exert signif icant influence on power grid... Since wind power has the features of being intermittent and unpredictable, and usually needs transmission over long distances, grid integration of large-scale wind power will exert signif icant influence on power grid planning and construction, and will make a heavy impact on the safe and reliable operation of power systems. To deal with the diff iculties of large scale wind power dispatch, this paper presents a new automatic generation control (AGC) scheme that involves the participation of wind farms. The scheme is based on ultra-short-term wind power forecast. The author establishes a generation output distribution optimization mode for the power system with wind farms and verif ies the feasibility of the scheme by an example. 展开更多
关键词 wind farm automatic generation control (AGC) power prediction dispatch control
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Simulation Analysis for Massive Deployment of Variable Renewables Employing an Optimal Power Generation Mix Model
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作者 Ryoichi Komiyama Saeko Shibata Yasumasa Fujii 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2013年第8期1604-1615,共12页
This paper develops a high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model in its time resolution of 10 minutes on 365 days by linear programming technique. The model allows us to analyse the massive deployment of ... This paper develops a high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model in its time resolution of 10 minutes on 365 days by linear programming technique. The model allows us to analyse the massive deployment of photovoltaic system and wind power generation in power system explicitly considering those short-term output variation. PV (photovoltaic) and wind output are estimated, employing meteorological database. Simulation results reveal that variable fluctuation derived from a high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation of natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary NAS (sodium and sulfur) battery and the output suppression control of PV and wind. It additionally turns out that the operational configuration of those technologies for the renewable variability differs significantly depending on those renewable output variations in each season and solving the seasonal electricity imbalance as well as the daily imbalance is important if variable renewables are massively deployed. 展开更多
关键词 BATTERIES power generation dispatch power generation planning power system economics power system simulation solar power generation wind power generation.
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Performance Analysis of Grid Connected and Islanded Modes of AC/DC Microgrid for Residential Home Cluster
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作者 Ahmed M. Othman Hossam A. Gabbar Negar Honarmand 《Intelligent Control and Automation》 2015年第4期249-270,共22页
This paper presents performance analysis on hybrid AC/DC microgrid networks for residential home cluster. The design of the proposed microgrid includes comprehensive types of Distributed Generators (DGs) as hybrid pow... This paper presents performance analysis on hybrid AC/DC microgrid networks for residential home cluster. The design of the proposed microgrid includes comprehensive types of Distributed Generators (DGs) as hybrid power sources (wind, Photovoltaic (PV) solar cell, battery, fuel cell). Details about each DG dynamic modeling are presented and discussed. The customers in home cluster can be connected in both of the operating modes: islanded to the microgrid or connected to utility grid. Each DG has appended control system with its modeling that will be discussed to control DG performance. The wind turbine will be controlled by AC control system within three sub-control systems: 1) speed regulator and pitch control, 2) rotor side converter control, and 3) grid side converter control. The AC control structure is based on PLL, current regulator and voltage booster converter with using of photovoltaic Voltage Source Converter (VSC) and inverters to connect to the grid. The DC control system is mainly based on Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) controller and boost converter connected to the PV array block and in order to control the system. The case study is used to analyze the performance of the proposed microgrid. The buses voltages, active power and reactive power responses are presented in both of grid-connected and islanded modes. In addition, the power factor, Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) and modulation index are calculated. 展开更多
关键词 MICROGRID PHOTOVOLTAIC Systems wind power generation hybrid AC/DC Networks
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Risk-averse Robust Interval Economic Dispatch for Power Systems with Large-scale Wind Power Integration 被引量:1
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作者 Zhenjia Lin Haoyong Chen +2 位作者 Jinbin Chen Jianping Huang Mengshi Li 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第1期105-116,共12页
This paper presents a robust interval economic dispatch(RIED)model for power systems with large-scale wind power integration.Differing from existing interval optimization(IO)approaches that merely rely on the upper an... This paper presents a robust interval economic dispatch(RIED)model for power systems with large-scale wind power integration.Differing from existing interval optimization(IO)approaches that merely rely on the upper and lower boundaries of random variables,the distribution information retained in the historical data is introduced to the IO method in this paper.Based on the available probability distribution function(PDF),wind power curtailment and load shedding are quantified as the operational risk and incorporated into the decision-making process.In this model,we need not rely on the forecasted value of wind power,which is randomly fluctuating and quite unpredictable.Furthermore,when the PDFs of wind power are taken into account,the resulting dispatch solution makes a good tradeoff between the generation cost and the operational risk.Finally,the RIED model yields an optimal dispatch solution for thermal units and the allowable intervals of wind power for the wind farms,which efficiently mitigates the uncertainty in wind power generation and provides more practical suggestions for system operators.Simulation studies are conducted on a modified IEEE-118 bus system and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed RIED model. 展开更多
关键词 Economic dispatch interval optimization RISK-AVERSE wind power generation
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电-热-氢综合能源系统鲁棒区间优化调度
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作者 李剑峰 姜涛 +3 位作者 窦文雷 李庸睿 宋卓然 王长江 《电力工程技术》 北大核心 2024年第2期44-54,共11页
储能技术与风电相结合实现电能的时空平移是解决系统运行稳定性问题的有效手段。氢储能具有储存容量大、可实现电热联产联供的优点,具有很大的发展潜能。然而由于风电存在不确定性,氢储能系统在频繁切换工作模式时面临着不确定的热能需... 储能技术与风电相结合实现电能的时空平移是解决系统运行稳定性问题的有效手段。氢储能具有储存容量大、可实现电热联产联供的优点,具有很大的发展潜能。然而由于风电存在不确定性,氢储能系统在频繁切换工作模式时面临着不确定的热能需求。因此,文中综合考虑氢储能在间歇模式下的热能需求,首先,介绍了氢储能系统接入的电-热综合能源系统基本结构,将风电场与氢储能相结合构成风-氢混合系统;然后,提出考虑风-氢混合系统热平衡需求不确定性的电-热综合能源系统鲁棒区间优化调度模型;最后,基于对偶理论,对所提出的模型转化求解,通过算例对比分析各类情况优化结果,验证了氢储能在促进风电消纳、提高系统能源综合利用率方面的有效性,并证明了考虑电解槽和燃料电池工作温度能提高系统的工作效率并提高风电场并网功率。 展开更多
关键词 电-热综合能源系统 鲁棒区间优化 热平衡需求 风-氢混合系统 能量转换 风电消纳
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Market-oriented Optimal Dispatching Strategy for a Wind Farm with a Multiple Stage Hybrid Energy Storage System 被引量:17
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作者 Zhenyuan Zhang Yun Zhang +1 位作者 Qi Huang Wei-Jen Lee 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE 2018年第4期417-424,共8页
With the increased promotion of integrated energy power systems(IEPS),renewable energy and energy storage systems(ESS)play a more important role.However,the fluctuation and intermittent nature of wind not only results... With the increased promotion of integrated energy power systems(IEPS),renewable energy and energy storage systems(ESS)play a more important role.However,the fluctuation and intermittent nature of wind not only results in substantial reliability and stability defects,but it also weakens the competitiveness of wind generation in the electric power market.Meanwhile,the way to further enhance the system reliability effectively improving market profits of wind farms is one of the most important aspects of Wind-ESS joint operational design.In this paper,a market-oriented optimized dispatching strategy for a wind farm with a multiple stage hybrid ESS is proposed.The first stage ESS is designed to improve the profits of wind generation through day-ahead market operations,the real-time marketbased second stage ESS is focused on day-ahead forecasting error elimination and wind power fluctuation smoothing,while the backup stage ESS is associated with them to provide the ancillary service.An interval forecasting method is adopted to help to ensure reliable forecast results of day-ahead wind power,electricity prices and loads.With this hybrid ESS design,supply reliability and market profits are simultaneously achieved for wind farms. 展开更多
关键词 dispatching optimization energy storage integrated energy power systems interval forecasting power market p2g wind power generation
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基于5G通信技术的风电场电力调度系统研究
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作者 王斌 《通信电源技术》 2024年第21期50-52,共3页
针对风电场电力调度面临的实时性、精准性、灵活性挑战,提出一种基于5G通信技术的风电场电力调度系统。该系统采用改进的长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)网络模型实现风电功率预测,并基于模型预测控制(Model Predictive Contro... 针对风电场电力调度面临的实时性、精准性、灵活性挑战,提出一种基于5G通信技术的风电场电力调度系统。该系统采用改进的长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)网络模型实现风电功率预测,并基于模型预测控制(Model Predictive Control,MPC)策略实现多时间尺度协调控制。通过搭建100 MW风电场实验平台测试设计系统性能,证实该系统在风电功率预测准确率、系统响应时间、通信时延以及控制精度等关键指标上均优于传统方法,具有较好的应用效果。 展开更多
关键词 风电场 电力调度 5G通信技术
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风电光伏混合系统中的储能技术研究与应用
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作者 孙晓阳 景小华 孙震 《通信电源技术》 2024年第10期22-24,共3页
介绍风电光伏混合系统的基本概念、组成以及运行特点,强调系统在提供稳定、可靠电力方面的优势。探讨电化学、机械和热储能等的优缺点及其在可再生能源系统中的应用,详细分析储能技术如何提升风电光伏混合系统的稳定性、经济性以及环境... 介绍风电光伏混合系统的基本概念、组成以及运行特点,强调系统在提供稳定、可靠电力方面的优势。探讨电化学、机械和热储能等的优缺点及其在可再生能源系统中的应用,详细分析储能技术如何提升风电光伏混合系统的稳定性、经济性以及环境适应性,并通过实证数据和比较分析展示储能技术在系统优化中的效果,提出结合储能技术的系统优化策略,如模型预测控制(Model Predictive Control,MPC)等,强调其在提高系统效率和应对复杂气候条件中的关键作用。 展开更多
关键词 风电光伏混合系统 储能技术 可靠性 稳定性 经济性
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混凝土-钢结构混合式风电塔架转接段制作工艺探索与实践
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作者 张晶 陈琨 +1 位作者 高金芳 吴双 《现代制造技术与装备》 2024年第5期176-179,共4页
主要探讨混凝土-钢结构混合式风电塔架转接段制作过程中的关键环节,采用精确切割技术、焊缝温度控制以及精细化法兰组合操作等手段,对塔架整体制造工艺的科学性和可行性进行全面考究,并提出一套具有显著成效的制作方法。
关键词 混凝土-钢结构 混合式 风电塔架 转接段 制作工艺
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配电系统中电动汽车与可再生能源的随机协同调度 被引量:74
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作者 王贵斌 赵俊华 +2 位作者 文福拴 薛禹胜 辛建波 《电力系统自动化》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2012年第19期22-29,共8页
电动汽车和可再生能源发电的快速发展为电力系统的安全和经济运行带来了新的挑战。在此背景下,构建了能够计及可入网混合动力电动汽车(PHEV)和风电、光伏发电系统出力不确定性的随机协同优化调度模型。首先,分析了PHEV的行驶耗电和随机... 电动汽车和可再生能源发电的快速发展为电力系统的安全和经济运行带来了新的挑战。在此背景下,构建了能够计及可入网混合动力电动汽车(PHEV)和风电、光伏发电系统出力不确定性的随机协同优化调度模型。首先,分析了PHEV的行驶耗电和随机充放电行为。之后,在假设风速服从Rayleigh分布、光照服从Beta分布的前提下,导出了风电机组和光伏发电系统出力的期望、方差及二阶原点矩的表达式。在此基础上,发展了以平抑可再生能源出力波动为目标的电力系统随机协同优化调度模型,并应用交叉熵算法进行求解。最后,以33节点配电系统为例说明了所提出的随机协同优化调度模型的基本特征。 展开更多
关键词 风力发电 光伏发电 可入网混合动力电动汽车 随机优化调度 交叉熵算法
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含多种分布式电源的微电网经济调度研究 被引量:25
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作者 周晓燕 刘天琪 +3 位作者 沈浩东 孙国城 杜红卫 李兴源 《电工电能新技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第1期5-8,18,共5页
微电网的优化调度是一个新的具有重要社会和经济效益的复杂问题。基于实际风光资源、负荷和微电网运行成本数据,将用户效益、环境保护以及社会效益量化为运行及维护成本、未满足负荷、污染气体排放量、容量短缺等指标,采用模糊评价函数... 微电网的优化调度是一个新的具有重要社会和经济效益的复杂问题。基于实际风光资源、负荷和微电网运行成本数据,将用户效益、环境保护以及社会效益量化为运行及维护成本、未满足负荷、污染气体排放量、容量短缺等指标,采用模糊评价函数将多目标转化为单目标,提出了针对该微网的短期经济优化调度模型。选取一年中的典型情况为算例进行经济运行分析,并采用小生境遗传算法进行求解,得出了在各典型情况下各微电源的最优出力和最佳电能交易计划,验证了所提调度策略的正确性与有效性。 展开更多
关键词 电力系统 微电网 风光蓄发电系统 经济调度
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风光互补技术及应用新进展 被引量:58
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作者 王志新 刘立群 张华强 《电网与清洁能源》 2008年第11期40-45,共6页
简要回顾国内外风电、光伏技术与应用发展态势,结合风光互补系统应用,分析、介绍了风光互补LED路灯照明系统、智能控制器设计、分布式供电电源、风光互补水泵系统,并着重分析生物质能、风能和太阳能互补分布式能源梯级系统原理,涉及的... 简要回顾国内外风电、光伏技术与应用发展态势,结合风光互补系统应用,分析、介绍了风光互补LED路灯照明系统、智能控制器设计、分布式供电电源、风光互补水泵系统,并着重分析生物质能、风能和太阳能互补分布式能源梯级系统原理,涉及的技术关键等。研究表明,风能、光伏发电应用需要实现低成本、规模化,风光互补技术应用前景广阔。 展开更多
关键词 风力发电 光伏发电 风光互补技术 分布式发电 逆变技术 建筑一体化光伏应用
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计及风电备用风险的电力系统多目标混合优化调度 被引量:35
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作者 姚瑶 于继来 《电力系统自动化》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第22期118-124,共7页
风电功率不确定间歇波动给电力调度带来了困难。如何合理考虑风电备用风险,一体化制定经济发电与旋转备用计划,并使节能减排等指标满足期望水平,是亟待解决的问题。定义了一种以风电功率间歇波动引起系统备用紧张程度为指标的规范化风... 风电功率不确定间歇波动给电力调度带来了困难。如何合理考虑风电备用风险,一体化制定经济发电与旋转备用计划,并使节能减排等指标满足期望水平,是亟待解决的问题。定义了一种以风电功率间歇波动引起系统备用紧张程度为指标的规范化风电备用风险,建立了一种同时计及风电功率间歇波动对系统上调和下调备用的风险影响、一体化制定经济发电与旋转备用计划、具有最优值与期望值混合形式的多目标优化调度模型。其中,电网公司购电总费用取最小值形式,系统发电总燃煤耗量、总污染物排放量、上调和下调备用风险取期望值形式。针对多目标混合优化调度模型,采用分解交替迭代求解策略:将原问题分解为经济发电和旋转备用2个混合优化子问题,并利用发电出力与旋转备用的特定关系交替迭代求解。算例验证了所提出方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 调度 多目标混合优化 风电 风险 节能减排 备用
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基于零相位低通滤波器的混合储能平抑直驱风电机组功率波动控制策略的研究 被引量:9
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作者 田桂珍 卢栋 +1 位作者 刘广忱 温素芳 《太阳能学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第6期72-78,共7页
研究基于零相位低通滤波器的混合储能平抑直驱风电机组功率波动控制策略。该控制策略控制全钒液流电池(VRB)补偿中频功率波动和超级电容(SC)快速地吸收高频功率波动,从而平滑风电功率和提高电能质量;同时实现直驱式风力发电系统根据电... 研究基于零相位低通滤波器的混合储能平抑直驱风电机组功率波动控制策略。该控制策略控制全钒液流电池(VRB)补偿中频功率波动和超级电容(SC)快速地吸收高频功率波动,从而平滑风电功率和提高电能质量;同时实现直驱式风力发电系统根据电网调度指令在最大功率跟踪运行和限功率运行2种模式下运行及平滑切换。提出采用基于零相位低通滤波器风电功率分配算法,分析零相位低通滤波器参数对滤波效果的影响,并给出参数优化设计方法。零相位低通滤波器无相位滞后问题,可实时准确地检测风电功率中高、中和低频功率,减小各频段功率之间的偶合,从而取得更好的平抑功率波动效果和减小储能单元的容量。最后在Matlab/Simulink环境下建立系统仿真模型,仿真验证所提出的功率分配算法及控制策略的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 风力发电 混合储能系统 混合储能功率分配算法 零相位低通滤波器
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含风电场的混合机会约束经济调度模型 被引量:7
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作者 盛四清 孙晓霞 《电力系统及其自动化学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2015年第8期82-86,102,共6页
风电出力具有不确定性和波动性,大规模风电功率注入电网给电力系统调度运行带来了严峻的考验。针对系统中普遍存在的多重不确定因素,引入不确定规划理论,将风电和负荷出力的不确定性表示为预测误差的不确定性,并根据其不同特性,进行区... 风电出力具有不确定性和波动性,大规模风电功率注入电网给电力系统调度运行带来了严峻的考验。针对系统中普遍存在的多重不确定因素,引入不确定规划理论,将风电和负荷出力的不确定性表示为预测误差的不确定性,并根据其不同特性,进行区别建模,考虑火电机组的阀点效应,建立同时含有模糊变量和随机变量的混合机会约束经济调度模型。采用模糊模拟和随机模拟技术相结合的混合模拟求解策略进行求解。通过引入机会约束使得调度决策具有控制风险和成本的能力,建模计及火电机组的阀点效应,使得计算结果更加符合实际情况。算例分析验证了所建模型的可行性和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 风力发电 经济调度 风电预测误差 负荷预测误差 混合机会约束 混合模拟求解策略
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