Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Identification of Suitable Hydrologic Response Unit Thresholds for Soil and Water Assessment Tool Streamflow Modelling

Use of a non-zero hydrologic response unit(HRU) threshold is an effective way of reducing unmanageable HRU numbers and simplifying computational cost in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) hydrologic modelling. However, being less representative of watershed heterogeneity and increasing the level of model output uncertainty are inevitable when minor HRU combinations are disproportionately eliminated. This study examined 20 scenarios by running the model with various HRU threshold settings to understand the mechanism of HRU threshold effects on watershed representation as well as streamflow predictions and identify the appropriate HRU thresholds. Findings show that HRU numbers decrease sharply with increasing HRU thresholds. Among different HRU threshold scenarios, the composition of land-use, soil, and slope all contribute to notable variations which are directly related to the model input parameters and consequently affect the streamflow predictions. Results indicate that saturated hydraulic conductivity, average slope of the HRU, and curve number are the three key factors affecting stream discharge when changing the HRU thresholds. It is also found that HRU thresholds have little effect on monthly model performance, while evaluation statistics for daily discharges are more sensitive than monthly results. For daily streamflow predictions, thresholds of 5%/5%/5%(land-use/soil/slope) are the optimum HRU threshold level for the watershed to allow full consideration of model accuracy and efficiency in the present work. Besides, the results provide strategies for selecting appropriate HRU thresholds based on the modelling goal.

Defining Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrologic responseunits(HRUs)by field boundaries

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)is widely used to relate farm management practices to their impacts on surface waters at the watershed scale,yet its smallest spatial unit is not generally defined by physically meaningful boundaries.The hydrologic response unit(HRU)is the smallest spatial unit of the model,and the standard HRU definition approach lumps all similar land uses,soils,and slopes within a subbasin based upon user-defined thresholds.This standard method provides an efficient way to discretize large watersheds where simulation at the field scale may not be computationally feasible.In relatively smaller watersheds,however,defining HRUs to specific spatial locations bounded by property lines or field borders would often be advantageous,yet this is not currently possible within the ArcSWAT interface.In this study,a simple approach is demonstrated that defines HRUs by field boundaries through addition of uniquely named soils to the SWAT user soil database and creation of a field boundary layer with majority land use and soil attributes.Predictions of nitrogen,phosphorus,and sediment losses were compared in a case study watershed where SWAT was set up using both the standard HRU definition and field boundary approach.Watershed-scale results were reasonable and similar for both methods,but aggregating fields by majority soil type masked extremely high soil erosion predicted for a few soils.Results from field-based HRU delineation may be quite different from the standard approach due to choosing a majority soil type in each farm field.This approach is flexible such that any land use and soil data prepared for SWAT can be used and any shapefile boundary can divide HRUs.

Modeling hydrologic responses using multi-site and single-site rainfall generators in a semi-arid watershed

Hydrologic response in a watershed is driven by precipitation.Multi-site rainfall generators can be used to model watersheds using spatially varied rainfall inputs to better analyze how the rainfall variability affects runoff generation.This study adopted both a single-site rainfall generator(CLIGEN)and a multi-site rainfall generator to generate two rainfall data sequences,which were then used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)for runoff simulation.The 148-km2 Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed and its two sub-watersheds were selected to evaluate the hydrologic response.Runoff calibration was done against measured runoff in the watershed.Statistics showed that the single-site and multi-site rainfall generators gave similar results regarding annual precipitation.However,the multi-site generator performed much better than the single-site generator in both mean summer flow and for the different return period flows.The runoff derived from the single-site generator was significantly over-estimated in all three watersheds.As for the multi-site generator,the derived runoff was satisfactorily predicted in the smaller watersheds but only overestimated in the largest watershed.This indicated that in small to medium sized watersheds,the spatial variability of rainfall could play an important role for hydrologic response because of the heterogeneity of convective rainfall in this semi-arid region,which makes the application of multi-site rainfall generator a better option than the single-site generator.

Use of Wavelet Transform to Analyse Observed Precipitation at Bukoba, Tanzania to Recognize Impacts to Hydrological Response in Lake Victoria Basin

This research exploited seventy years of daily precipitation data from Bukoba, Tanzania to understand precipitation variability and change important for water resource management. Morlet Wavelet Transform was applied to discriminate the distinct time-frequency rainfall variability in the 92 days long MAM （（March and May）） and OND （October to December） primary rainfall seasons for intraseasonal characteristics over the periods 1931 - 1960, 1961-1990 and 1971-2000. The time-frequency analysis yielded wavelets outlining the intraseasonal nature of sporadic wet and dry spells in each epoch. The characters of the spells designate changing distribution, intensity and frequency of occurrence across the three epochs. The profile of the erratic wet and dry spells speculates shift change and fading of high frequency, quasi biweekly and low frequency oscillations. The oscillations which act together across atmosphere, oceans and land surfaces through convective processes are likely to influence seasonal precipitation anomalies at intraseasonal scale. The variability of the observed daily precipitation is thus hypothesized to be linked to the fading oscillations in the later two epochs particularly during the main MAM season and thus the declining precipitation in the study domain. Global increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could catalyze this process.

Hydrological response to climate change and human activities:A case study of Taihu Basin,China

Climate change and human activities have changed a number of characteristics of river flow in the Taihu Basin.Based on long-term time series of hydrological data from 1986 to 2015,we analyzed variability in precipitation,water stage,water diversion from the Yangtze River,and net inflow into Taihu Lake with the Mann-Kendall test.The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and water stage was first analyzed for the Taihu Basin and the Wuchengxiyu(WCXY)sub-region.The optimized regional and urban regulation schemes were explored to tackle high water stage problems through the hydrodynamic model.The results showed the following:(1)The highest,lowest,and average Taihu Lake water stages of all months had increasing trends.The total net inflow into Taihu Lake from the Huxi(HX)sub-region and the Wangting Sluice increased significantly.(2)The Taihu Lake water stage decreased much more slowly after 2002;it was steadier and higher after 2002.After the construction of Wuxi urban flood control projects,the average water stage of the inner city was 0.16e0.40 m lower than that of suburbs in the flood season,leading to the transfer of flooding in inner cities to suburbs and increasing inflow from HX into Taihu Lake.(3)The regional optimized schemes were more satisfactory in not increasing the inner city flood control burden,thereby decreasing the average water stage by 0.04e0.13 m,and the highest water stage by 0.04e0.09 m for Taihu Lake and the sub-region in the flood season.Future flood control research should set the basin as the basic unit.Decreasing diversion and drainage lines along the Yangtze River can take an active role in flood control.

Hydrological response to land use and land cover changes in a sub-watershed of West Liaohe River Basin,China

In recent years, the streamflow of the Laohahe Basin in China showed a dramatic decrease during the rainy season as a result of climate change and/or human activities. The objective of this work was to document significant streamflow changes caused by land use and land cover （LULC） changes and to quantify the impacts of the observed changes in Laohahe Basin. in the study area, the observed streamflow has been influenced by LULC changes, dams, and irrigation from rivers, industry, livestock and human consumption. Most importantly, the growth of population and gross domestic product （GDP） accompanied by the growth in industrial and agricultural activities, which led to LULC changes with increased residential land and cropland and decreased grassland since 2000s. Statistical methods and Variable Infiltration Capacity （VIC） hydrological model were used to estimate the effects of climate change and LULC changes on streamflow and evaportranspiration lET）. First, the streamflow data of the study area were divided into three sub-periods according to the Pettitt test. The hydrological process was then simulated by VIC model from 1964 to 2009. Furthermore, we compared the simulated results based on land use scenarios in 1989, 1999 and 2007, respectively for exploring the effect of LULC changes on the spatio-temporal distribution of streamflow and ET in the Laohahe Basin. The results suggest that, accompanied with climate change, the LULC changes and human water consumption appeared to be the most likely factors contributing to the sig- nificant reduction in streamflow in the Laohahe Basin by 64% from1999 to 2009.

Development of a location-weighted landscape contrast index based on the minimum hydrological response unit

The changing patterns of watersheds in a landscape, driven by human activities, play an important role in non-point source pollution processes. This paper aims to improve the location-weighted landscape contrast index using remote sensing and GIS technology to account for the effects of scale and ecological processes. The hydrological response unit(HRU) with a single land use and soil type was used as the smallest unit. The relationship between the landscape index and typical ecological processes was established by describing the influence of the landscape pattern on non-point source pollution. To verify the research method, this paper used the Yanshi River basin as a study area. The results showed that the relative intensity of non-point source pollution in different regions of the watershed and the location-weighted landscape contrast index based on the minimum HRU can qualitatively reflect the risk of regional nutrient loss.

Hydrological response characteristics of landslides under typhoon-triggered rainstorm conditions

Many landslide disasters,which tend to result in significant damage,are caused by typhoon-triggered rainstorms.In this case,it is very important to study the dynamic characteristics of the hydrological response of landslide bodies since it enables the early warning and prediction of landslide disasters in typhoon periods.To investigate the dynamic mechanisms of groundwater in a landslide body under typhoon-triggered rainstorm conditions,the authors selected the landslide occurring in Zhonglin Village,Wencheng County,China(also referred to as Zhonglin Village landslide)as a case study.The transient seepage field characteristics of groundwater in the landslide body were simulated with two different rainfall models by using the finite element method(FEM).The research results show that the impact of typhoon-triggered rainstorms on landslides can be divided into three stages:(i)Rapid rise of groundwater level;(ii)infiltration of groundwater from the surface to deeper level,and(iii)surface runoff erosion.Moreover,the infiltration rate of groundwater in the landslide body is mainly affected by the intensity of typhoon-induced rainfall.It can be deduced that higher rainfall intensity leads to a greater potential difference and a higher infiltration rate.The rainfall intensity also determines the development mode of landslide deformation and destruction.

Hydrological Processes in a Small Research Watershed under Forest Coverage in the Coast of Chiapas, Mexico

In the hydrological watershed, some natural processes take place in which the interaction of water, soil, climate and vegetation favors the capture of water. The present study aimed to evaluate preliminary information regarding the hydrological response and the water balance in a small research watershed with tropical forest cover (15°01'44''N and 92°13'55''W, 471 m, 2.3 has). Events of precipitation, direct runoff, infiltration rate and baseflow were performed. The amount, duration and intensity of rainfall events were recorded with the use of a pluviograph. Surface runoff was quantified with an established gauging station, an H-type gauging device and a horizontal mechanical gauging limnograph. Runoff base flow was measured at the gauging station using the volume-time method. Infiltration was measured using a triple ring infiltrometer, taking two measurements in the upper part and two in the lower part of the microbasin. Evapotranspiration was measured with the amount of rainfall entering and runoff leaving the watershed. In the study period, annual rainfall of 4417.6 mm distributed over 181 events were recorded;about 70% of the storms showed lower intensities at 20 mm·h-1. The total runoff was 345.8 mm caused by half of the rainfall events, which represents 7.8% of the total rain;77% of runoff events showed lower sheets of 5 mm and an average specific rate of 20.7 L·s-1·ha-1 with a maximum of 113.6 L·s-1·ha-1. Three runoff events were greater than 20.1 mm and caused the 22.5% of the total runoff depth in the study period showing the equilibrium conditions in the hydrological response of the forest. Water outputs like baseflow was 669.5 mm. In this way, 90% of the rainfall is infiltrated every year in the micro-watershed, which shows the importance of the plant cover in the hydrological regulation and the groundwater recharge.

Analysis of Climate Variability and Its Influence on the Hydrological Response of the Catchment Area of Kadey (East Cameroon)

Register in the framework of the International Program of Research on Water Resources Management and Protection of Ecosystems, the Congo basin in which lies the catchment area of the Kadey (2647 km2) was selected to better assess the impact climate variability on the water surface in the perspective of supply drinking water both in the rainy season and in periods of low water. Based on new data from rainfall and flow rates obtained in the last fifteen years (1998-2013), the major trends in time series and the scope of the “drought” were identified. The historical rainfall in the basin is characterized by two major ruptures rainfall in 1969 and 1999. These have generated an order deficit of 14% respectively and an excess of nearly 19%. These phenomena also affected the recurrence of cumulative rainfall throughout the Kadey basin. Here, the hydrological response to excess rainfall is over 100%. However, it appears that over the period 1970-2012, the number of years that has undergone a “severe drought” is to play down.

Hydrological Services by Mountain Ecosystems in Qilian Mountain of China: A Review

Hydrological service is a hot issue in the current researches of ecosystem service, particularly in the upper reaches of mountain rivers in dry land areas, where the Qilian Mountain is a representative one. The Qilian Mountain, where forest, shrubland and grassland consist of its main ecosystems, can provide fresh water and many other ecosystem services, through a series of eco-hydrological process such as precipitation interception, soil water storage, and fresh water provision. Thus, monitoring water regulation and assessing the hydrological service of the Qilian Mountain are meaningful and helpful for the healthy development of the lower reaches of arid and semi-arid areas. In recent 10 years, hydrological services have been widely researched in terms of scale and landscape pattern, including water conservation, hydrological responses to afforestation and their ecological effects. This study, after analyzing lots of current models and applications of geographical information system（GIS） in hydrological services, gave a scientific and reasonable evaluation of mountain ecosystem in eco-hydrological services, by employing the combination of international forefronts and contentious issues into the Qilian Mountain. Assessments of hydrological services at regional or larger scales are limited compared with studies within watershed scale in the Qilian Mountain. In our evaluation results of forest ecosystems, it is concluded that long-term observation and dynamic monitoring of different types of ecosystem are indispensable, and the hydrological services and the potential variation in water supplement on regional and large scales should be central issues in the future research.v

What control the spatial patterns and predictions of runoff response over the contiguous USA?

Understanding the nonlinear relationship between hydrological response and key factors and the cause behind this relationship is vital for water resource management and earth system model.In this study,we undertook several steps to explore the relationship.Initially,we partitioned runoff response change(RRC)into multiple components associated with climate and catchment properties,and examined the spatial patterns and smoothness indicated by the Moran's Index of RRC across the contiguous United States(CONUS).Subsequently,we employed a machine learning model to predict RRC using catchment attribute predictors encompassing climate,topography,hydrology,soil,land use/cover,and geology.Additionally,we identified the primary factors influencing RRC and quantified how these key factors control RRC by employing the accumulated local effect,which allows for the representation of not only dominant but also secondary effects.Finally,we explored the relationship between ecoregion patterns,climate gradients,and the distribution of RRC across CONUS.Our findings indicate that:(1)RRC demonstrating significant connections between catchments tends to be well predicted by catchment attributes in space;(2)climate,hydrology,and topography emerge as the top three key attributes nonlinearly influencing the RRC patterns,with their second-order effects determining the heterogeneous patterns of RRC;and(3)local Moran's I signifies a collaborative relationship between the patterns of RRC and their spatial smoothness,climate space,and ecoregions.

Effects of Land-Cover Changes and Other Remediations on Hydrology of Xinjiang River Sub-Watershed

To determine whether reforestation efforts in the denuded hills have significant impacts on hydrology in the Xinjiang River watershed, the authors examined eight land-cover scenarios to compare hydrologic responses and to provide a conceptual basis for restoration practices. The authors analyzed a 17-year time period using remote sensing to develop land-cover classification for the watershed. Climate, soil and terrain data for the watershed were used as input in the SWAT （soil and water analysis tool） to quantify and compare the impacts on hydrologic processes. The model was calibrated to a two-year record of stream discharge measurements. The results show significant increase in forest-cover on hills （13%）. However, the hydrological response is not very significant considering the changes in forest-cover, the surface runoff and percolation ratios only changed by 2% and 1% over time. Installment of earthen irrigation ponds in the outlets of sub-basin with maximum runoff had provided the most significant hydrologic improvements and could provide irrigation water to increase crop yield on remaining cropland. The study will provide information to the local government to aid decision-making in sustainable reforestation programs resulting in better hydrologic functioning for sustainable water resource management.

Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin

Permafrost is an important component in hydrological processes because changes in runoff over the Arctic drainage basin cannot be well explained by changes in precipitation-related variables.However,current understanding of the influences of permafrost on hydrological dy-namics is insufficient.This study investigated historical variations in permafrost conditions and their potential hydrologic effects over the Russian Arctic drainage basin.The results show that soil temperature(at 0.40 m below surface)has increased about 1.4℃over the Ob,1.5℃over the Yenisei,and 1.8℃over the Lena River basin from 1936 through 2013,possibly resulted in a significant thawing of permafrost.Rapid active layer changes have occurred since the 1970s.The volume of the active layer increased by 28,142,and 228 km3 over the Ob,Yenisei,and Lena basins,respectively,since the 1970s.Melting ground ice caused by deepening active layer may be a limited contribution to annual runoff.Runoff during freeze season(October--April)showed significant positive correlations(p<0.05)to active layer thickness in the Yenisei and Lena basins while negative correlation(p>0.05)in the Ob basin.These results imply that,in basins with high permafrost coverage,a deeper active layer increased soil water storage capacity and perhaps contribute to an increase in winter runoff.

Geo-cognitive computing method for identifying“source-sink”landscape patterns of river basin non-point source pollution

The aim of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the influences of landscape composition and spatial structure on the transmission process of non-point source pollutants in different regions.The location-weighted landscape contrast index,using the hydrological response unit(HRULCI)as the minimum research unit,was proposed in this paper.Through the description of the endemic landscape types and various geographical factors in the basin,the index calculation can reflect the impact of the“source-sink”landscape structure on the non-point source pollution in different regions and quantitatively evaluate the contribution of different landscape types and geographical factors to non-point source pollution.This study constructed a method of geo-cognitive computing for identifying“source-sink”landscape patterns of river basin non-point source pollution at two levels.1)The basin level:the spatial distribution and landscape combination of the entire basin are identified,and the crucial“source”and“sink”landscape types are obtained to measure the differences in the non-point source pollutant transmission processes between the“source”and“sink”landscapes in the different watersheds.2)The landscape level:HRULCI is calculated based on multiple geographical correction weighting factors.By using the idea of intersecting geographic information system(GIS)and landscape ecology,the landscape spatial pattern and ecological processes are linked.Compared with the traditional method for studying landscape patterns,the calculation of HRULCI makes the proposed method more ecologically significant.Lastly,a case study was evaluated to verify the significance of the proposed research method by taking the Yanshi River basin,a sub-basin belonging to the Jiulong River basin located in Fujian Province,China,as the experimental study zone.The results showed that this method can reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the“source-sink”types and their relationship with non-point source pollution.By comparing the resulting calculation based on HRULCI,the risk of nutrient loss and the influence of landscape patterns and ecological processes on non-point pollution in different catchments can be obtained.

Influences of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Projects on Runoff in Qingjiang River Upstream Basin

Hydrological data on the Upper Qingjiang River from 1960 to 2012 document trends of runoff caused by hydropower engineering projects and long-term changes in rainfall. Annual runoff correlates strongly with annual precipitation, but is significantly reduced after reservoir construction compared to earlier values. Comparisons of intense, pre- and post-construction rainfall events suggest that the Chebahe and Dalongtan reservoir projects respectively clips the magnitude of the flood peaks and delays runoff delivery.