Impacts of climate change on glacial water resources and hydrological cycles in the Yangtze River source region,the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,China:A Progress Report

The Yangtze River Source Region has an area of 137,704 km2.Its mean annual runoff of 12.52 billion m3,which was recorded by the Chumda Hydrological Station in 1961–2000,accounts for only 0.13 percent of the Yangtze River's total annual streamflow.The extensive rivers,lakes,wetlands,glaciers,snow fields,and permafrost of the Yangtze River Source Region,as well as the region's vast alpine grasslands,play a critical role in storing and regulating the flow of water not only in the upper Yangtze River watershed of Qinghai,Sichuan,the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) (Tibet) and Yunnan,but also throughout the entire lower Yangtze River basin.Climate change has been the dominant factor in recent fluctuation in the volume of the Yangtze River Source Region's glacier resources.The Chumda Hydrological Station on the lower Tongtian River has registered a mean annual glacial meltwater of 1.13 billion m3 for the period 1961–2000,makes up 9 percent of the total annual runoff.Glacial meltwater makes up a significant percentage of streamflow in the Yangtze River Source Region,the major rivers of the upper Yangtze River Source Region:the Togto,Dam Chu,Garchu,and Bi Chu (Bu Chu) rivers all originate at large glaciers along the Tanggula Range.Glaciers in the Yangtze River Source Region are typical continental-type glaciers with most glacial meltwater flow occurring June–August;the close correlation between June–August river flows and temperature illustrates the important role of glacial meltwater in feeding rivers.Glaciers in the source region have undergone a long period of rapid ablation beginning in 1993.Examination of flow and temperature data for the 1961–2000 period shows that the annual melting period for glacial ice,snow,and frozen ground in the Yangtze River Source Region now begins earlier because of increasing spring temperatures,resulting in the reduction of summer flood season peak runoffs;meanwhile,increased rates of glacier ablation have resulted in more uneven annual distribution of runoff in the source region.The annual glacial meltwater runoff in the Yangtze River Source Region is projected to increase by 28.5 percent by 2050 over its 1970 value with the projected temperature increase of 2℃ and a precipitation increase of 29 mm.As a critical source of surface water for agriculture on the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and beyond,the mass retreat of glaciers in the Yangtze River Source Region will have enormous negative impacts on farming and livestock-raising ac-tivities in upper Yangtze River watershed,as well as on the viability of present ecosystems and even socioeconomic development in the upper Yangtze River Basin.

Effects of Heterogeneous Vegetation on the Surface Hydrological Cycle

Using the three-layer variable infiltration capacity （VIC-3L） hydrological model and the successive interpolation approach （SIA） of climate factors, the authors studied the effect of different land cover types on the surface hydrological cycle. Daily climate data from 1992 to 2001 and remotely-sensed leaf area index （LAI） are used in the model. The model is applied to the Baohe River basin, a subbasin of the Yangtze River basin, China, with an area of 2500 km^2. The vegetation cover types in the Baohe River basin consist mostly of the mixed forest type （-85%）. Comparison of the modeled results with the observed discharge data suggests that： （1） Daily discharges over the period of 1992-2001 simulated with inputs of remotely-sensed land cover data and LAI data can generally produce observed discharge variations, and the modeled annual total discharge agrees with observations with a mean difference of 1.4%. The use of remote sensing images also makes the modeled spatial distributions of evapotranspiration physically meaningful. （2） The relative computing error （RCE） of the annual average discharge is -24.8% when the homogeneous broadleaf deciduous forestry cover is assumed for the watershed. The error is 21.8% when a homogeneous cropland cover is assumed and -14.32% when an REDC （Resource and Environment Database of China） land cover map is used. The error is reduced to 1.4% when a remotely-sensed land cover at 1000-m resolution is used.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles（LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust） influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance（a.k.a., surface darkening）, which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice（LAPSI） has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

Oceanic Origin of A Recent La Nin a-Like Trend in the Tropical Pacific

Global ocean temperature has been rising since the late 1970s at a speed unprecedented during the past century of recordkeeping.This accelerated warming has profound impacts not only on the marine ecosystem and oceanic carbon uptake but also on the global water cycle and climate.During this rapid warming period,the tropical Pacific displays a pronounced La Nin a-like trend,characterized by an intensification of west-east SST gradient and of atmospheric zonal overturning circulation,namely the Walker circulation.This La Nin a-like trend differs from the El Nin o-like trend in warm climate projected by most climate models,and cannot be explained by responses of the global water cycle to warm climate.The results of this study indicate that the intensification of the zonal SST gradient and the Walker circulation are associated with recent strengthening of the upper-ocean meridional overturning circulation.

The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Summer Hydrological Cycle in the Haihe River Basin of China

In this study, we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin （HRB） during 1957-2005： precipitation （Prep）, actual evaportranspiration （ETa）, and pan evaporation （PE）-a measure of potential evaporation. The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon. Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005. Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux, in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions, led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB. ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescale. On longer timescales, however, ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation. We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used, but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. PE declined during the period 1957-2001. The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind. However, the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds, due to weaker dispersion of pollution. If so, the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds.

Changes of the hydrological cycle in two typical Chinese monsoonal temperate glacier basins,： A response to global warming？

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in Chin＇s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable develop- ment. The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle. As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation seasor has become longer, the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased. The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year. Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt, and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin. The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream re- gion of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation, resulting from the promi- nent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins. Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes, to reveal the relation- ships between climate, glaciers, hydrology and water supplies, and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.

Simulations of Hydrological Cycle Changes Between the LGM and the Present Day over China

Based on the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project（ISCCP）data in 1983-2006,it is found that there is a high value center of high cloud amount over the Tibetan Plateau（TP）,while there is a high value center of middle cloud amount over the Sichuan Basin extending to the coastal area of southeastern China along the same latitude,and a low one over the TP.The present day（PD）and Last Glacial Maximum（LGM）climates are simulated by using the NCAR Community Climate Model（CCM3）nested with a regional mesoscale model（MM5）.Comparing the clouds simulated by MM5 with the ISCCP data,it is found that the main patterns of high and middle clouds over China can be reproduced by MM5,which implies that the climate characteristics of clouds might he dominated by relative humidity.Meanwhile,the vertical distributions of water vapor and temperature are also well simulated by MM5.Furthermore,the hydrological cycle changes between the LGM and PD simulations are examined.The results show that during the LGM,the tropospheric temperature decreases in summer with a high value reduction center in the upper and middle troposphere; in winter,a high value reduction center of temperature appears in the middle troposphere over southern China,while the temperature in the upper and middle troposphere increases over northern China.There obviously exists a positive correlation between the water vapor content and temperature change.The water vapor content mostly decreases with the maximum drop in the near-ground surface layer,but it increases in the upper and middle troposphere over northern China in winter.Changes of water vapor content gradually weaken with the altitude increasing,reaching the minimum in the upper troposphere.The relative humidity can either increase or decrease with the maximum change greater than 15%.It is not conservative on the regional scale,and its change is consistent with the changes of middle and low clouds.During the LGM,the high cloud reduces nationwide except over Southwest China,and the middle and low clouds also decrease with the greatest reduction seen in the low cloud.Precipitation changes correspond to the changes of middle and low clouds.Based on the changes of the relative humidity and effective precipitation,it is found that during the LGM,Southwest China is wetter in summer,so is Northwest China.

The Physical Principles Elucidate Numerous Atmospheric Behaviors and Human-Induced Climatic Consequences

The principles that govern the operation of an open and a closed evaporator are relevant for the understanding of the open and “closed” Earth’s atmospheric behaviors, and are thus described. In these greenhouses, the water is included, otherwise the heat and mass balances do not match. It is incorrect to consider the radiation as the only energy transfer factor for an atmospheric warming. Demonstrations show that when the greenhouse effect and the cloud cover increase, the evaporation and the wind naturally decrease. Researchers did not understand why reductions in surface solar radiation and pan evaporation have been simultaneous with increased air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation for the last decades. It is an error to state that the evaporation increases based solely on the water and/or air temperatures increase. Also, researchers did not comprehend why in the last 50 years the clouds and the precipitation increased while the evaporation decreased and they named such understanding as the “evaporation paradox”, while others “found” “the cause” violating the laws of thermodynamics, but more precipitation is naturally conciliatory with less evaporation. The same principle that increases the formation of clouds may cause less rainfall. Several measurements confirm the working principles of greenhouses described in this paper. The hydrological cycle is analyzed and it was also put in form of equation, which analyses have never been done before. The human influence alters the velocity of the natural cycles as well as the atmospheric heat and mass balances, and the evaporation has not been the only source for the cloud formation. It is demonstrated that the Earth’s greenhouse effect has increased in some places and this proof is not based only on temperatures.

Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation(GMP)throughout Earth's history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological cycle.However,currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean paleoprecipitation.Here,we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic era.The relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature(GMST)is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation,with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^(-1).Additionally,we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Koppen climatic belts.These climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals,evaporites,and glacial deposits.The GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST,land area distributions,and paleo-koppen climatic belts,spanning from 540 Ma to the present day.The quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500 mm yr^(-1),with values ranging from 948 to1442 mm yr-1over the Phanerozoic era.This curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical simulations.The presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

中新世气候适宜期构造运动加速全球海洋碳循环

Global warming during the Miocene Climate Optimum(MCO,~17-14 million years ago)is associated with massive carbon emissions sourced from the flood basalt volcanism and ocean crustal production.However,the perturbation of tectonic carbon degassing on the interaction between climate change and carbon cycle remains unclear.Here,through time-evolutive phase analysis of new and published high-resolution benthic foraminiferal oxygen(δ^(18)O)and carbon(δ^(13)C)isotope records from the global ocean,we find that variations in the marine carbon cycle lead the climate-cryosphere system(δ^(13)Clead-δ^(18)O)on 405,000-year eccentricity timescales during the MCO.This is in contrast to the previously reported climate-lead-carbon(δ^(18)O-lead-δ^(13)C)scenario during most of the Oligo-Miocene(~34-6 million years ago).Further sensitivity analysis and model simulations suggest that the elevated atmospheric CO_(2) concentrations and the resulting greenhouse effect strengthened the low-latitude hydrological cycle during the MCO,accelerating the response of marine carbon cycle to eccentricity forcing.Tropical climate processes played a more important role in regulating carbon-cycle variations when Earth's climate was in a warm regime,as opposed to the dominant influence of polar ice-sheet dynamics during the PlioPleistocene(after~6 million years ago).

Connection Between Atmospheric Latent Energy and Energy Fluxes Simulated by Nine CMIP5 Models

The atmospheric latent energy and incoming energy fluxes of the atmosphere are analyzed here based on the historical simulations of nine coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） and two reanalysis datasets. The globally averaged atmospheric latent energy is found to be highly correlated with several types of energy flux, particularly the surface latent heat flux, atmosphere absorbed solar radiation flux, and surface net radiation flux. On the basis of these connections, a hydrological cycle controlled feedback （HCCF） is hypothesized. Through this feedback, the atmosphere absorbed solar radiation is enhanced and causes intensification of the surface latent heat flux when the atmospheric latent energy is abnormally strong. The representativeness of the HCCF during different periods and over different latitudinal zones is also discussed. Although such a feedback cannot be confirmed by reanalysis, it proves to be a common mechanism for all the models studied.

Identification of impacts of climate change and direct human activities on streamflow in Weihe River Basin in Northwest China

Climate change and human activities make major influences on hydrology,which are known to have important impacts on streamflow variation.Therefore,it is critically important to identify how climate change and human activities will impact streamflow variation.Thus,the goal of this study is to identify the impacts of climate change and direct human activities on annual streamflow at four hydrologic stations in the Weihe River basin of China,with the estimation of evaporation based on the Budyko hypothesis.The Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect the break points of the four stations.According to the occurrence time of break points,the data series were divided into two periods:pre-change period(1960-1984)and post-change(1985-2010)period.The parameter of one-parameter Budyko-type model was calibrated with observed data during the pre-change period,with the R^(2) values ranged from 0.95 to 0.97 and the NSE values ranged from 0.80 to 0.94,and the high R^(2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient shows the model has good performance.The contribution ratios of climate change impacts on decreasing streamflow were 37%,23%,57%and 43%,and those of the impacts of direct human activities were 63%,77%,43%and 57%for the Linjiacun,Xianyang,Lintong and Huaxian station,respectively.Both the climate change and direct human activities have positive impacts on streamflow decrease at all of the four stations,and the direct human activities are the main factor causing the decrease of annual streamflow.