Seagull Lake is an unusual saline lake,having a marine spring connected to a large continental ecosystem.With climate change the balance between marine,meteoric and groundwater inputs to,and evaporitic and groundwater
Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE）-China Meteorological Administration （...Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE）-China Meteorological Administration （CMA） archiving center and the raingauge data, the three-layer variable infiltration capacity （VIC-3L） land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological forecast experiments over the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008. The results show that the performance of the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system （EPS） is better than that of the deterministic prediction. Especially, the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously. The ensemble spread goes widely with increasing lead time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th-99th quantile. The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven by the European Centre （EC）-EPS is higher than that driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）-EPS, and the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model. With regard to Wangjiaba station, all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th and 75th quantile. The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well, and so is the second rising limb. Nevertheless, the flood recession is not well predicted.展开更多
基金Financial assistance for the researchers to undertake the initial fieldwork in 2012 was provided by the Friends of Streaky Bay Parks as a Caring for our Country grantThe Royal Society of South Australia provided a research grant to assist with the continuation of the work in 2013
文摘Seagull Lake is an unusual saline lake,having a marine spring connected to a large continental ecosystem.With climate change the balance between marine,meteoric and groundwater inputs to,and evaporitic and groundwater
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201006037,GYHY200906007,and GYHY(QX)2007-6-1)Special Fund for Weather Forecasters of CMA in 2010 (CMATG2010Y23)Huaihe River Meteorology Open Research Fund (HRM200701)
文摘Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX （The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE）-China Meteorological Administration （CMA） archiving center and the raingauge data, the three-layer variable infiltration capacity （VIC-3L） land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological forecast experiments over the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008. The results show that the performance of the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system （EPS） is better than that of the deterministic prediction. Especially, the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously. The ensemble spread goes widely with increasing lead time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th-99th quantile. The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven by the European Centre （EC）-EPS is higher than that driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）-EPS, and the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model. With regard to Wangjiaba station, all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th and 75th quantile. The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well, and so is the second rising limb. Nevertheless, the flood recession is not well predicted.
