The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the Brazilian Banking Sector

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in general.Governments adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as response.Brazil basic interest rate is denominated Selic.The application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial intermediation.This study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’theory.The first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares prices.The hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’shares.We adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 respectively.The results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not confirmed.Results confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate reduction.This contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

Empirical research on the international spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy and their impacts

Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

An Empirical Analysis on the Impacting of Fiscal Policy on Haze Governance ：Based on the Data of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2014

为准确把握财政政策对雾霾治理的影响,在确立财政政策投入和雾霾治理产出两个维度的基础上,建立评价指标体系,选取安徽省2 0 0 5 年-2 0 1 4 年评价数据,建立T0 P S IS模型,进行实证评价.结果表明：总体上,安徽省财政政策对雾霾治理影响效应表现逐年削弱的变化特征.其次,分阶段来看,2 0 1 0年以前,安徽省财政政策对雾霾治理的影响出现“W ” 型变化特征,即“削弱-增强-削弱-增强” 的变化.2 0 1 1年-2 0 1 3年财政政策效果快速下降;2 0 1 4年以来,财政政策对雾霾治理的影响有增强的趋势.再次,财政资金使用不科学,技术创新不足一定程度上削弱了财政政策对雾霾治理的影响效应.为进一步增强财政政策对雾霾治理的积极影响,充分发挥财政职能,建议完善财政资金的专项转移支付制度,推进资源税制改革,完善相关财政专项补贴政策,推进财政政策绩效评价.

Tracking direct and indirect impact on technology and policy of transformative research via ego citation network

Purpose:The disseminating of academic knowledge to nonacademic audiences partly relies on the transition of subsequent citing papers.This study aims to investigate direct and indirect impact on technology and policy originating from transformative research based on ego citation network.Design/methodology/approach:Key Nobel Prize-winning publications(NPs)in fields of gene engineering and astrophysics are regarded as a proxy for transformative research.In this contribution,we introduce a network-structural indicator of citing patents to measure technological impact of a target article and use policy citations as a preliminary tool for policy impact.Findings:The results show that the impact on technology and policy of NPs are higher than that of their subsequent citation generations in gene engineering but not in astrophysics.Research limitations:The selection of Nobel Prizes is not balanced and the database used in this study,Dimensions,suffers from incompleteness and inaccuracy of citation links.Practical implications:Our findings provide useful clues to better understand the characteristics of transformative research in technological and policy impact.Originality/value:This study proposes a new framework to explore the direct and indirect impact on technology and policy originating from transformative research.

Impact of Plastic Waste on the Human Health in Low-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Background: Plastic pollution is the accumulation of waste composed of plastic and its derivatives all over the environment. Whether in the form of visible garbage or microparticles, as it slowly degrades, plastic pollution poses significant threats to terrestrial and aquatic habitats and the wildlife that call them home, whether through ingestion, entanglement or exposure to the chemicals contained in the material. Unfortunately, there is a lack of documentation on the impact of plastic waste on human health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: We searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL and Web of Science) and gray literature, following the preferred reporting elements for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA), for the impact of plastic waste on human health in developing countries. We included quantitative and qualitative studies written in English and French. We assessed the quality of the included articles using the Mixed Methods Appraisal tool (MMAT). Results: A total of 3779 articles were initially identified by searching electronic databases. After eliminating duplicates, 3167 articles were reviewed based on title and abstract, and 26 were selected for full-text review. Only three articles were retained. The three articles dealt with practices likely to lead to oral exposure to plastic chemicals in human health, as well as the level of awareness of participants concerning the possible impact of plastic on human health, namely, the use of plastic baby bottles, the use of microwaves to cook food and reheat precooked food, the use of plastic bottles to store water in the refrigerator, water purifier containers with plastic bodies and plastic lunch boxes, the reuse of plastic bags and the inadequacy of treatment facilities. Conclusion: Plastic waste poses different risks to human health at every stage of its life cycle. Hence, strategies must be adopted to raise public awareness of the dangers of plastic waste to their health. Trial registration: The review protocol is registered in the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (ID = CRD42023409087).

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

The impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural non-point source pollution in China

Agricultural and rural economic policy system is one main driving force for the evolvement of agricultural Non-Point Source （NPS） pollution. In this paper, the main policies that influence agricultural NPS pollution are chosen, and a method to evaluate the impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural NPS pollution is brought forward. According to this, the questions about how and to what degree the policy system influence on agricultural NPS pollution are discussed.

The impact analysis of policy events on China's carbon market

This paper interrogates the impact of policy events on the efficiency of carbon market in China.The analysis covers five piloting emission trading schemes(Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong,Shenzhen and Hubei), particularly focusing on Guangdong pilot for its weak form efficiency and the richness of policy events. Twenty-five policy events between 2014 and 2016 are categorized into seven groups. The efficiency test indicates that only Guangdong ETS has reached weak form efficiency. After exploring the policy events occurred in Guangdong ETS, it finds that although a clear long-term climate policy has been set up over the country, China's carbon market still has a conservative risk appetite and its governing institutions still needs further development. The policy makers need to be aware of and avoid the negative impacts of policy events to the market evolvement, by introducing effective consultancy process with the stakeholders and nurturing market expectations in the long run. We also find that events like allowance auctions have considerably less impacts than previously expected and argue that auction approach should be considered a preferable option over a free allocation system in the future policy design.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

The Interactions among Housing Price, Inflation and Monetary Policy in China： Facts and Implications

As a transition economy, China has unique characteristics regarding housing price, inflation and monetary policies. In addition to supply and demand powers, China＇s housing price is affected by demographic structure, fiscal system and land supply system. Using China＇s statistics from 2005 to 2011, this paper found empirically that （1） liquidity has a significant impact on China＇s housing prices and inflation; （2） China＇s negative real interest rate has pushed up housing price; （3） price-related instrument of monetary policy can curb housing price and is more effective than control of money supply.

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Abatement Applying a Dynamic CGE Model with Endogenous Technological Change： Impacts of the Time Horizon

We evaluate economic and environmental impacts of climate change mitigation in a country scale considering various time horizons in the analysis applying a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. Although there is a possibility that Gross Domestic Product （GDP） becomes larger for the abatement cases than the baseline case in the earlier years, it tends to be lower than that in the later years. The longer the time horizon and/or the more severe the abatement, the larger the negative impacts will be. When subsidizing R＆D investment, increase in GDP compared to the baseline case is realized in the middle of the time horizon, and the larger increase tends to be observed for the longer-term cases. These results would be due to technological change induced by the subsidies and emission abatement. Environmental indicators are also improved. We showed that the results were influenced by the target time horizon when using an intertemporal dynamic model.

Analysis on the Effectiveness of China＇s Monetary Policy under WTO

Starting from the analysis on the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy under WTO, this paper advocates that reforms of the operating system of domestic monetary policy and the foreign exchange regime should be carried out in a combined manner. It also touches upon the coordination of exchange rate and interest rate polices. To improve the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy, it is necessary to shift from the fixed exchange rate regime to the managed floating foreign exchange regime, gradually strengthening the central bank＇s rational control over the foreign exchange market and its construction of China＇s monetary market. It is also of great significance to improve the sterilization operation to guard against the internal fluctuations of money supply.

Monetary Policy and Unemployment:The Case of Romania

The paper aims to analyze the monetary transmission model between the monetary policy and the labor market variable of unemployment.The results of the data show that,the external shocks have an important impact especially on the Romanian interest rates but also on the domestic production;however,the impact is not significant on unemployment,which proves the resilience of the domestic labor market.The central bank policy rate has a stabilizing effect on the unemployment rate in case of an increase in the euro area policy rate.

The Analysis of the Effect of China＇s Monetary Policy in Open Economy

Firstly, this paper theoretically proves that with the development of open economy the effect of monetary policy will become poor. Secondly, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of open economy on our monetary policy. We conclude that there no longer exists long stable relationship between money supply and economic growth. Finally, in four aspects the paper concretely points out that with the open of economy great changes will take place in the implementation of our monetary policy.

Analysis on Inefficiency of Transmitting the Monetary Policy of the Capital Market

Looking from the institutional system that the stock market services the state-owned enterprises, the bad corporate governing structure of the state-owned listed companies, the lack of balance between the yield from an investment and the stock, and the polarization of the wealth distribution in the stock market, we make an intensive analysis and exploration on the inefficiency of transmitting monetary policy of Chinese capital market herein.

Policy Towards Gender Equality in Employment in a Globalizing Economy——An outline of the analysis report on the impacts of China's economic reform on women employment

1.This study is one of The Applied Economic Institutes Linkages Project(AERIL)which is funded by theCanadian International Development Agency(CIDA)and jiontly managed by The Conference Board of Canada(CBOC)and the International Trade Research Institute in China.It is jointly implemented by the Institute ofEconomic Research of the Chinese State Planning Commission and the North—South Institute of Canada。

The Influence of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on the Rural Residents' Consumption

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of influence of fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture monetary supply on rural residents' s consumption by adopting a vector auto-regression model,based on the data from 1978 to 2011.The study indicated that:in the short term,fiscal policy is the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption,monetary policy is not the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption;in the long term,the comprehensive function of fiscal policy and monetary policy has a great influence on the of rural residents' consumption.Under the background of Economic Transition and Urbanization,Expanding Domestic Demand is the slogan.We should coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy to promote the rural residents' consumption.