Impact-based forecasting for improving the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction in typhoon committee region

The two most common types of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region are floods and storms,many of them associated with typhoon(tropical cyclone)related impacts.To improve the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction so as to maximum reduce the losses of people’s life and properties,the decision makers and the public are imminently demanding the information of the targeted impact caused by typhoon.As the front line in hydro-meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation against the typhoon-related disasters,National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)in TC Members have recognized that forecasting impact became more important than forecasting pure causing-disaster elements.Impact-based forecasting signals an evolution from“what the weather will be”to“what the weather will do”.Many things change as impact based forecasts evolve from previous weather forecasts.To enhance impact-based typhoon forecasting,the Typhoon Committee added it into the new updated Strategic Plan 2022–2026.This paper briefed generally the concept of impact based forecasting,introduced the implementation and progresses on typhoon impact based forecasting in TC Members in recent years,and initially discussed the measures and direction for enhancement of impact-based typhoon forecasting and early warning services in future.

MIND THE GAP: TOWARDS AND BEYOND IMPACT MESSAGING TO ENHANCE TROPICAL CYCLONE RISK COMMUNICATION

Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.

Impacts as Triggers for Weather-Related Decision Making: Observations at the Berlin Fire Brigade Control and Dispatch Center

This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences,and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather.The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone.Instead,they are reactions to the experience of impacts,for example,an increased number of missions or emergency calls.Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making.Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade.While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment,verified by ground truth,observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations.The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services,the weather service,and other organizations to integrate weather information,impacts,and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.