FOUNDATION AND APPLICATION OF BACKGROUND TREND LINE OF CHINA'S INBOUND TOURISM

SUN Gen nian (Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062,P.R.China) ABSTRACE:Modern inbound tourism in China has been developing for 20 years, a trend line of inbound tourists in statistical data began to show. This paper introduces the concept of tourism background trend line, and explores its two functions as a barometer in demonstrating fluctuation in the tourism economy and as a forecaster in forecasting tourism development. The tourism background trend line is a new concept, the word "background" derived from environment science, refers to the  trend line" which reflects the dynamic curve or dynamic equation of tourism development without considering the impact of unexpected incidents. The introduction of this concept was inspired by Karl Marx’s comments on the relation between value and price. Tourism background trend line reflects the summary of multiple factors involving tourism resources, tourism demand, population growth, the scale and speed of economic development, and the spatial interaction between tourism origins and destimations. It demonstrates the natural and stable trend and the temporal law of tourism development in a country or region. The tourism statistical curve is at random, susceptible to disruptions and disturbances from serious political, economic and environmental happenings, but it always fluctuates around the background line. Tourism background line can reveal the potential of a country’s tourism development. Compared with the statistical line, it can be used as a  barometer" indicating ups and downs of tourism industry in the past. When naturally extended, the background trend line also can be used for forecasting the trend of tourism development in future. In this paper, 4 tourism background trend lines of China’s inbound tourists, i.e. foreign tourists, Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan tourists, overseas Chinese tourists and total tourists from abroad, were established with statistical data from 1978 to 1996. And the impacts of the Political Event in 1989(or Tiananmen Square Incident) on China’s inbound tourism were evaluated. The result shows that the impact of the Event was not limited within one year, but it stretched over 3 years. The total loss was 20 million in tourist arrivals and ＄ 1620 million in foreign currency income. The paper also studied the trend of China’s inbound tourism in the next 4 years.

Inbound Open Innovation, Business Model Design and Firm Innovation Performance

Through systematic literature review,this study constructs a relationship model of the impact of inbound open innovation on firm innovation performance,and introduced two-dimensional business model design(novelty and efficiency)as mediation variables.It is preliminary confirmed theoretically that inbound open innovation has a positive impact on firm innovation performance,and the rationality of business model playing a mediation role in the relationship between inbound open innovation and innovation performance.Through questionnaire survey and empirical analysis,it is concluded that inbound open innovation has a positive impact on firm innovation performance;Two-dimensional business model design(novelty and efficiency)play a completely positive mediation role in the relationship between inbound open innovation and innovation performance.Based on these findings,this paper developed recommendations for future research.

Regional Disparity and Convergence of China's Inbound Tourism Economy

Comprehending regional characteristics and influencing factors of China's inbound tourism economy is im-portant to make effective policies that will help inbound tourism develop harmoniously and shrink regional disparity.This paper studied the regional disparity and convergence of China's inbound tourism economy during 1996-2008 with the methods of σ-convergence,club convergence and β-convergence.The results indicate that 1) inbound tourism receipts per capita(ITRPC) of the whole country,the eastern,central and western regions presented the rapid increas-ing trend;2) ITRPC of the whole country was characterized by convergence;3) the eastern region presented club con-vergence,but the central and western regions did not show this trend;4) the star-hotel levels and investment in fixed assets for the tourism industry per capita had a same trend to growth rates of ITRPC,promoting inbound tourism de-velopment,and there was no difference among the 31 provinces(municipalities) in the mainland of China;5) but the proportion of employed persons in the tourism industry accounting for total population and the proportion of the terti-ary industry accounting for GDP had a reversal trend to growth rates of ITRPC,shrinking the provincial disparity in inbound tourism economy,and there were differences between the developed provinces and the developing provinces.Based on these analyses,we put forward some suggestions for the developing provinces to speed up inbound tourism economy.

Analysis on inbound tourists' satisfaction in China: an empirical study based on the investigation of 5 cities

In China, the tourism industry is regarded as one means of fostering local economic development. This paper tries to examine inbound tourism development in China in the last decade and analyze inbound tourism's satisfaction of their travel experience with tourist attractions, facilities, services and price by an empirical study based on the investigation of Lanzhou, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. This paper discusses the demographic characteristics of visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, US, Korea and Japan by surveying a sample of 528 visitors in fi ve different cities. The survey showed that four provinces/autonomous region in western China ranked the top 10 popular destinations. Chinese natural landscape, culture and food were highly regarded by the tourists. At the same time, tourists expressed less satisfaction with tourist language convenience, tourist facility and nightlife in China. It was also found that only 7.4% of the tourists thought travel in China was far more than what they had paid, that 6.5% regarded they got what they paid for, and that 34.9% thought the travel cost was reasonable. Most tourists were satisfi ed with their travel experience in China; many of them would like to return to China and would like to recommend China. For the sustainable development of tourism, Chinese tourism authorities should strengthen the construction, propaganda and management of scenic spots, improve tourist facility and tourist education, especially language convenience, and strengthen the supervision of tickets, souvenir and hotel price.

Stochastic Joint Replenishment Optimization under Joint Inbound Operational Cost

With e-commerce concentrating retailers and customers onto one platform,logistics companies(e.g.,JD Logistics)have launched integrated supply chain solutions for corporate customers(e.g.,online retailers)with warehousing,transportation,last-mile delivery,and other value-added services.The platform’s concentration of business flows leads to the consolidation of logistics resources,which allows us to coordinate supply chain operations across different corporate customers.This paper studies the stochastic joint replenishment problem of coordinating multiple suppliers and multiple products to gain the economies of scale of the replenishment setup cost and the warehouse inbound operational cost.To this end,we develop stochastic joint replenishment models based on the general-integer policy(SJRM-GIP)for the multi-supplier and multi-product problems and further reformulate the resulted nonlinear optimization models into equivalent mixed integer second-order conic programs(MISOCPs)when the inbound operational cost takes the square-root form.Then,we propose generalized Benders decomposition(GBD)algorithms to solve the MISOCPs by exploiting the Lagrangian duality,convexity,and submodularity of the sub-problems.To reduce the computational burden of the SJRM-GIP,we further propose an SJRM based on the power-of-two policy and extend the proposed GBD algorithms.Extensive numerical experiments based on practical datasets show that the stochastic joint replenishment across multiple suppliers and multiple products would deliver 13∼20%cost savings compared to the independent replenishment benchmark,and on average the proposed GBD algorithm based on the enhanced gradient cut can achieve more than 90%computational time reduction for large-size problem instances compared to the Gurobi solver.The power-of-two policy is capable of providing high-quality solutions with high computational efficiency.

Prediction of the high-quality development level of inbound tourism based on adaptive neural network technology

Visitors abroad come on an inbound tourism (IT) trip. Travelling beyond one’s usual surroundingsfor no more than a year in one go, or no less than tourist culture is considered inboundtourism. A network called adaptive neural networks (ANN) is used in dynamic tourism situations.Many methods are used to make neural networks flexible: weight adjustment, changes in neuronalcharacteristics, and changes in the network’s structural composition. One of the biggestproblems is that cultural clashes lead to many different places, which strain the transportationsystem. IT-ANN tools and technologies are discussed in this study, including the possibilities ofvisitor time and space-relationship data. As a result, inbound tourism doesn’t have to rely onweekend domestic travel because individuals who go on holiday overseas tend to return yearafter year. Finally, the neural network is equipped with a prediction model of travellers’ spatialand temporal distribution.

基于组合深度学习的轨道交通短时进站客流预测模型

针对轨道交通短时进站客流考虑不充分和特征学习不全面而导致预测精度不高的问题,选取客流特征、天气、空气质量和道路交通拥堵指数等多个因素,提出了一种基于组合深度学习的轨道交通短时进站客流预测模型(CNN-ResNet-BiLSTM)。基于卷积神经网络(CNN)对多因素客流时间序列进行自动提取,在CNN网络中插入多个残差神经网络(ResNet)来加深网络深度,利用双向长短时记忆神经网络(BiLSTM)捕捉前后两个方向的客流时间序列特征并得到预测结果;以杭州市全网80个站点工作日的进站客流为例,验证了该模型的有效性。研究结果表明:与常用的几种模型相比,多因素CNN-ResNet-BiLSTM组合模型的均方根误差(E RMS)至少降低了8.50%,平均绝对误差(E MA)至少降低了6.74%,平均绝对百分比误差(E MPA)至少降低了6.52%。

“指日可待”还是“道阻且长”?——目的地居民对中国入境旅游恢复的感知形成研究

以疫情为代表的突发公共卫生事件一度使中国出入境旅游市场陷入失衡,旅游业遭受严重打击。基于日渐宽松的出入境政策等客观事实,入境旅游的恢复或迎来希望,相应地,为入境旅游重新启动做好准备工作的相关议题应当在研究中得到重视。居民是目的地旅游活动的重要参与主体,文章从目的地居民视角出发对中国入境旅游恢复感知作预测研究,以深度访谈为资料来源,用扎根理论方法探索影响目的地居民对中国入境旅游恢复的感知过程与作用路径。研究发现:(1)政策与现实、风险认知、利益关切与个体内置情感是影响居民感知的因素;(2)信息源、信任情感积累、控制性/补偿性需求能够调节感知强度;(3)居民的感知结果包含“爱恨交织”的复合情绪,亦包含对来华游客潜在态度感知;(4)衍生感知后效包含整合行为、逃离行为、主动寻求防护行为和排斥来华游客行为4种行为倾向。

俄罗斯国际入境旅游市场空间分异研究

俄罗斯是横跨欧亚的旅游资源大国,吸引了众多的入境游客。基于官方统计数据,利用赫芬达尔指数和波士顿矩阵以及借助ArcGIS软件,从目的地和客源地两个视角分析俄罗斯国际入境旅游市场的空间分异情况。结果表明:从目的地视角看,2013—2020年期间俄罗斯入境旅游市场集聚水平较高,莫斯科市是主核心,圣彼得堡市是次核心,莫斯科州和弗拉基米尔州等地也有一定的市场份额;从客源地角度看,2014—2019年期间俄罗斯入境客源地符合距离衰减规律,市场竞争态中的明星市场和金牛市场主要为前苏联加盟共和国或周边邻国。俄罗斯可以从持续加强基础设施建设、扶持旅游中小微企业、拓宽国际旅游合作等方面拓展入境旅游市场,中国也可以和俄罗斯开展合作,共建东北亚旅游共同体。

长三角城市群入境旅游流的时空演化与空间效应研究

科学研判入境旅游流的时空分异规律和动态演化特征,对推进入境旅游一体化高质量发展大有裨益。采用探索性空间数据分析、重心—标准差椭圆模型和空间马尔科夫链模型识别2005—2020年长三角城市群入境旅游流的时空分异及其动态演化规律,并运用空间杜宾模型探析入境旅游流的溢出效应。结果表明:研究期内入境旅游流整体呈缓慢增长态势,变异系数和相对基尼系数呈小幅度波动上升趋势,表明研究区入境旅游流相对差异总体较为平稳。空间上呈显著集聚特征,但高低集聚区渐趋缩小,入境旅游流分布日益空间均衡化;入境旅游流重心轨迹呈“东南—西北”移动趋势,西部地区入境旅游流增长速度较快;标准差椭圆主要位于长三角中部偏东地区,椭圆面积样本末期大于样本初期,东部是入境旅游发展的主要区域,入境旅游流发展的溢出效应逐渐增强。入境旅游流存在显著的“状态锁定”和“俱乐部趋同”现象,整体有序向高水平方向跃迁,与高值区为邻自身向上转移的概率将增大。入境旅游流具有显著的空间溢出效应,经济发展水平、对外开放程度和旅游基础设施是推动本地及邻地入境旅游流增长的重要因素,旅游资源禀赋、区位交通条件显著促进本地入境旅游流增长,对邻地的溢出影响则显著为负。

天津港大港港区LNG双泊位联合运行通航管理方案

为满足北方地区冬季LNG高峰期保供目标,部分渤海沿海港口在同一港池内规划布置双LNG泊位。鉴于双泊位联合运营下的LNG船舶关联性强且操纵难度高的特点,有必要对LNG双泊位联合运行进行调度管理方案研究。以国内首座正式投产运营的LNG双泊位为例,基于船舶操纵模拟仿真方法,通过分析LNG船舶航行对航道通航效率影响及相邻泊位联动性,提出双泊位运营下的LNG船进出港优先级。在此基础上,结合LNG双泊位运营特点和通航管理规则,制定近期和远期不同阶段的船舶联合调度组织模式。研究结论可为单港池LNG双泊位的通航管理提供决策依据。

多维距离视角下长江经济带入境游客时空格局及其影响因素研究

构建地理、文化、制度、经济4个维度的理论框架,通过区位熵分析2010—2019年长江经济带不同距离国家入境游客的时空特征,基于扩展引力模型探究其影响因素。结果表明:(1)长江经济带入境游客以韩国、日本、法国等为主,中、远距离国家游客的集中程度较高,且游客结构趋于均衡;(2)近距离国家游客更偏向选择区域南部的湖南、云南等省份作为旅游目的地,而中、远距离国家游客集中在区域北部。与近、远距离国家游客相比,中距离国家游客的集聚核心较为稳定且集中度更强;(3)地理、文化距离对旅游地选择具有负向作用,制度、经济距离具有正向作用,语言、气候差异显著性不强。多维距离在2015—2019年的作用显著性较2010—2014年弱,且对近、远距离国家游客的作用方向与对中距离国家大致相反。

供需视角下入境旅游与星级酒店系统耦合协调发展研究——以海南省为例

海南岛是国际旅游岛,旅游业是海南四大主导产业之一。星级酒店和入境旅游在海南旅游业发展中占重要地位。采用海南省2000—2020年入境旅游与星级酒店相关数据,基于供需视角构建海南省入境旅游需求系统与星级酒店供给系统耦合评价指标体系与系统耦合模型,分析两个系统综合评价指数发展和耦合协调度。结果表明:2000—2005年海南省入境旅游发展落后于星级酒店,入境旅游与星级酒店处于濒临失调和轻度失调级别,供给大于需求;随着入境旅游发展和星级酒店调整,两者的耦合协调度逐渐增加,2006—2020年两系统主要处于初级协调等级;海南省入境旅游与星级酒店耦合协调度整体上耦合程度逐渐提高,保持入境旅游与星级酒店供需平衡是实现二者高度耦合协调的关键。

我国入境游发展瓶颈问题与对策分析

随着国内入境游市场的复苏与入境游客的增加,旅游市场在信息查询、门票预定、国际支付等方面“不便利、不通畅、不能用”的问题集中显现出来,在一定程度上限制了入境游市场的发展,降低了境外游客的消费体量。为此,本文提出六方面措施统筹解决入境游的消费痛点问题:(1)补齐信用卡支付平台,增设货币兑换点;(2)推动国内外主流预定平台的互通、互联;(3)推动移动客户端海外版软件的研发与使用;(4)用好144小时免签政策,适当放宽短途入境游客认证;(5)普及主要旅游城市一站式综合服务平台;(6)进一步拓宽入境游客服务的政策支持,以供参考。

使用JCA inbound实现信息流入集成

本文分析了Jboss应用服务器的资源适配器,并实现了与邮件系统的集成,提出在实际开发中高效可行的一种应用集成方法。

入境火扑救工作经验总结——以第五师“9·8”中哈边境森林草原火灾为例

入境火由于其特殊的性质,给森林火灾的防控带来一定的困难,做好入境火的监控管理及扑救总结,将对我国的资源保护起到至关重要的作用。通过对中哈边境第五师双河市84团界内夏尔希里自然保护区边境线交界处和84团北山草场边境线内入境森林草原火灾有效防控措施和扑灭过程的经验总结,为今后我国边境地区入境火的防治提供对策和建议。

广州地铁车站进站客流超高峰系数实证分析

[目的]超高峰客流量是设计城市轨道交通车站内各部位通过能力所需的重要参数,由高峰小时客流量乘以超高峰系数得到。而超高峰系数目前还没有合理的确定方法,在实际设计中通常基于《地铁设计规范》给出的建议值并结合设计者的经验进行取值,需研究其分布规律和取值方法。[方法]基于广州地铁现状客流数据,按照全日进站量和所在区位对车站进行分类,基于此,分析了不同类型车站进站客流超高峰系数分布范围的差异,探讨了进站客流超高峰系数的分布规律和确定思路。[结果及结论]周边以岗位用地为主的车站,其晚高峰进站客流超高峰系数宜在《地铁设计规范》中建议值的低限附近取值;周边以居住用地为主的车站,其早高峰进站客流超高峰系数,可根据车站早高峰进站客流的出行距离分布集中程度来取值,如果出行距离分布集中程度高,则宜在《地铁设计规范》中建议值的高限附近取值。

“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线区域入境旅游发展的政策效应评价

以2007—2019年中国31个省(区、市)面板数据,结合超效率及全局Malmquist指数与PSM-DID法实证检验“一带一路”倡议对入境旅游发展的政策效应。研究表明:①入境旅游的平均发展能力呈现为正增长,但产业空间格局差异仍未缓解,“一路”区域空间集聚明显,“一带”区域趋向空间极化发展;②倡议显著提高了沿线区域的入境旅游效率,但其实施效果具有滞后性,“一路”区域的政策响应优于“一带”;③倡议的政策效应具有区域异质性,经济发展水平与旅游交通条件对倡议的影响存在差异,结构红利与政策驱动效应显著,但旅游产业内核基础条件亟需提升,交通设施和资源要素优化应成为未来的提升关键。

涉外海洋旅游从业人员英语能力调查与分析——以舟山市为例

根据长三角一体化发展国家战略以及我国海洋经济和海洋旅游产业的发展趋势要求,对舟山市涉外旅游部门从业人员的英语能力和英语人才队伍建设现状进行调查分析,从政府、行业、企业和高校四个维度提出建立政、行、企、校协作机制,形成“政、行、企、校”涉外海洋旅游从业人员培养共同体,以政府明方向、行业作引导、企业出实招、学校强引擎,四方联动,多管齐下,切实打造一支国际化、复合化、高水平的涉外旅游人才队伍,为舟山市高水平对外开放、推进海洋旅游产业的国际化和海洋经济的持续健康发展服务。