LAND SUPPLY AND HOUSING PRICE:THE CASE IN HONG KONG

In this study we examine the relationship between land supply and housing price, percentage of land premium in the total government revenue and housing price, with reference to Hong Kong from 1981 to 1994. To do this we employ the Granger causality method to test the underlying hypothesis whether Hong Kong Government adopt high land-price policy. We use the first difference of data to ensure the stationarity in time series with the help of augmented Dick-Fuller unit root test. The results of the paper suggest no strong evidence to support the view that the land control of the government has caused soaringly rising housing prices. The findings also apparently implicate that the government has the revenue-maximizing behavior which is consistent with efficient allocation of resources.

Interaction of Land Demand and Supply Effects in Intensive Land Use: a Simulation Study for Chengdu,China

Intensive land use( ILU) policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a "valve"to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics( SD) to simulate two scenarios: ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand( inflated by investors) is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.

Dynamic Spatial Evolution of Market-oriented Supply Level of State-owned Land

The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of the spatial distribution and change trend of the marketing level of stateowned land supply so as to provide policy recommendations. Method of spatial autocorrelation analysis is employed. The results indicate that the spatial layout of the land supply marketing level is generally dispersed,but it does assemble in some specific area. The correlation between the marketing level of state-owned land supply and the economic development is not statistically significant. But their relations fluctuate obviously. The overall marketing level of state-owned land supply is increasing and spatially concentrated. The expansion rate of marketing has decreased first and then increased and stabilized now. The high-value cluster center of marketing level of state-owned land supply exists all over the country; however the existence probability of the cluster is bigger in undeveloped areas. It is concluded that spatial autocorrelation analysis is a good method to quantitatively analyze the spatial variation of marketing level of state-owned land supply in China. To grasp the spatial and temporal variations of the marketing level of state-owned land supply is also good to enhance running of the state-owned land market.

Models for Analyzing the Driving Force of Cultivated Land Supply Change

This paper focuses on a series of quantitative an al ysis models, such as grey relational analysis model, hierarchical cluster an alysis model, principal component analysis model, linear regression model and elastic coefficient model. These models are used to analyze the comprehensive function and effect of driving forces systemically, including analysis on featur es, analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary, analysis on comp rehensive effects, analysis of elasticity, analysis of prediction. The primary a nd characteristic factors can be extracted by analysis of features and analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary. Analysis on prediction an d elasticity can predict the area of cultivated land in the future and find out which factors exert great influence on the cultivated land supply.

Changing Land Use Pattern in India and Its Impact on Supply of Fresh Vegetables

The investment opportunities created by economic policies and increasing urbanization have enhanced demand for urban and peri-urban land. Fertile agricultural land is being converted to other uses. Around 1/3 more of the existing area under forests is needed to meet the targets of national forest policy. In the last two decades, 9% pastures have disappeared. The hills being removed cause threat to environment. The farmers seem to overuse land and other inputs. In the peri-urban areas agricultural fertile lands are many times forcefully acquired for non-agricultural uses, which result in violent protests and judicial interventions. A few cases of vast land use change, motive forces for such change, effect of change in land use on livelihood and on quality and costs of fresh vegetable supply are discussed in this paper. The partially used and unused data collected for earlier studies and some data collected for this paper have been used. The increase in land prices due to enhanced income of some sections, future need of prime land and returns from other than agricultural uses seem to be the driving force for change in land use, affecting the livelihood of people dependent upon farming who are migrating to nearby areas. Each shift of peri-urban agriculture will result in loss of quality, increase wastage by 6% and enhance costs of leafy vegetables by more than 5.5%. For an ideal urban land use, a balanced multi land use policy emphasizing peri-urban agriculture and forestry is suggested.

Innovate the Land Supply Pattern and Stabilize the Housing

In the process of building a harmonious socialist society, the protection of people＇ s livelihood is the priority, and to solve the housing problem of over one billion residents is the top priority. The present thesis begins with the land supply mechanism, and do researches on the style, the source and the type of land supply. With the analysis of land finance, the present thesis finally put forward the measures to innovate the land supply pattern, to increase the supply of low-income housing, to reform the way of land supply and to explore the circulating pattern of normative collective construction land that comes to is on the market. Meanwhile, it combines the present house property tax reform, putting forward the idea that imposing land property tax should be a way to inhibit the behavior of speculation. The present thesis aims at keeping the housing price at a reasonable level so that the purpose of stabilizing the housing price can he achieved.

Land Use Allocation Based on Interval Multi-objective Linear Programming Model: A Case Study of Pi County in Sichuan Province

Adjusting and optimizing land use structure is one of the essential approaches to solve the conflict between land supply and demand. In this study,an uncertain interval multi-objective linear programming model was established and applied to analyzing the suitability of land use structure in Pi County of Sichuan Province. An adjustment scheme for optimizing land use structure was proposed on the basis of development planning drawn up by the local government. The results are summarized as follows: 1) the optimal adjustment scope for cropland area ranges from 27 976.75 ha to 31 029.08 ha,and the current area is less than the lower limit of the scope; 2) the optimal adjustment scope for garden land area ranges from 4 736.49 ha to 12 967.11 ha,and the current area is less than the lower limit; 3) the optimal adjustment scope for construction land ranges from 7 761.95 ha to 10 393.18 ha,and the current area is greater than the upper limit; 4) the optimal adjustment scope for industry and mining land ranges from 557.29 ha to 693.54 ha,and the current area exceeds the upper limit; and 5) the areas of forest land,grassland and other agricultural land are within the optimal adjustment scope. In order to maximize comprehensive benefit with the limited resources and the demand of sustainable development,the areas of cropland and garden land are supposed to be expanded properly,while the construction land should be controlled and reduced gradually,and the forest land and other agricultural land can be maintained at the current level in short period.

SUSTAINABLE LAND USE PLANNING BASED ON ECOLOGICAL HEALTH——Case Study of Beiwenquan Town, Chongqing, China

This paper, taking Beiwenquan Town of Beibei, Chongqing as an example, assessed the impacts of land use on ecological health by comprehensive index method, and discussed methodological system of sustainable land use planning based on ecological health. Results indicated that: 1) From 1992 to 2002, land use changes focused on 12 patterns with the total conversion area of 92.11%, which were related to cultivated land, residential and industrial-mining area, and orchard land. Urbanization and economic reconstruction were the leading driving forces. 2) There was obvious difference of the areas of ecotypes driven by land use change in wide valley and mild slope between 1992 and 2002, while there were little or no difference in steep slope and very steep slope. 3) Both of the conditions of ecological health in 1992 and 2002 were sound, and the ecotypes focused on the types of health and sub-health. But, health ecosystem in 1992, with an area of 764.64ha, accounting for 38.51% of the total evaluation area, was better than that in 2002, with an area of 636.10ha, accounting for 34.19% of the total evaluation area. 4) The ecotypes involved into different ranges have already degenerated, due to humankind’s disturbance, while the conditions of ecological health in the same ranges in 1992, regardless of stability and reconstruction, were better than that in 2002. 5) The planning scenario based on ecological health was accorded with the practice condition of Beiwenquan Town: 388.29ha of cultivated land could meet the Beiwenquan demand of food and byproduct; 1045.26ha of forest land area, the Beiwenquan demand of ecological health; and 1004.73ha of the residential and industrial-mining area, the Beiwenquan building demand. 6) Sustainable land use planning based on ecological health had higher useful value, because it not only stood to ecological theory, but also satisfied the developmental demand of society and economy.

The Demand and Supply of Petroleum Equipment for China Onshore Oil and Gas Industry

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On the Transmission Mechanism of the Chinese Land Policy in Macroeconomic-control: A Theoretical Study Based on Modified IS-LM Model

The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.

Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Land in Makurdi Local Government Area of Benue State,Nigeria

This study assessed the impact of urbanization on agricultural land in Makurdi local government area of Benue State.The data collected were population figures and land use for three Epoch(1997,2007 and 2017).The satellite images were sourced from the National Center for Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System,Jos.In the analysis,cross change detection analysis and overlay analysis using ArcGIS 9.0 was performed to detect where land-use change has occurred and which type of land use agricultural land has transformed too.The GIS analysis revealed that there is an increase in settlement and a decrease in Agricultural land from 1997–2017.It also revealed that 99.51ha of agricultural land use has been converted to settlement between 1997 and 2017.The results reveal that urbanization has significant effects on Agricultural Land in the study area and these effects include;decreasing agricultural land,decreasing agricultural activities and decrease in farm size.If the growth in the population of Makurdi LGA continues unchecked,agricultural land will be significantly depleted in the future.The study recommended that there should be effective law and policy to control population growth sustainably to minimize the negative impact of urbanization in the study area.Also,urban agriculture should be encouraged to sustain the food supply in urban areas.

纵向监管、地方选择性供地与产业结构绿色转型

地方政府的有效执行是中国式分权下提升中央发展战略实施绩效的关键,而中央政府对地方政府治理行为的有效监督则是其中至关重要的环节。本文基于2007—2019年中国微观工业用地供应以及中央环保督察的通报结果数据,采用广义双重差分法实证考察中央环保督察对地方政府选择性供地策略的影响及其机制。研究表明,中央环保督察促使地方政府降低污染密集型工业用地供应,增加清洁型工业用地供应,从而推动地区产业结构的绿色转型。机制分析发现,中央环保督察通过地方领导人职业发展激励机制以及产业转型能力机制对不同特征的城市工业土地供应结构策略产生异质性影响。本文结论对高质量发展背景下的央地互动关系与地方利用土地偏向性供给推动产业结构绿色转型具有政策启示。

城市土地要素配置扭曲与产业结构升级研究

在当前要素市场化改革背景下,土地作为最基本的要素单元,其市场化配置程度以及对产业结构升级的影响,深刻影响着经济的高质量发展,对于加快完善社会主义市场经济体制具有重大意义。本文在构建土地要素配置扭曲模型基础上,测算了全国105个城市的土地要素配置扭曲值,并采用工具变量法分析2000—2019年全国以及三个经济圈城市土地要素配置扭曲程度对产业结构升级的影响。结果显示,土地要素在工业和服务业部门间的配置扭曲值近年来趋缓,且不同区域间存在异质性;土地要素配置扭曲不利于产业结构升级,而且长三角和珠三角经济圈土地要素扭曲配置对产业结构升级的负面影响,在2008年金融危机后逐渐变强,说明现行城市建设用地配置不仅存在效率低下问题,还进一步制约了产业升级的步伐。为加快产业结构升级,地方政府应转变“以地谋发展”的方式,完善土地要素市场化配置运行机制,因地制宜地优化城市用地供应结构。

我国耕地质量提升立法的基本逻辑及规范供给——兼论《耕地保护法(草案)》(征求意见稿)的完善

为全方位夯实粮食安全根基,实现耕地保护“量质并重”,立法不仅要着眼于耕地数量保护,更应加强对耕地质量提升的关注。耕地质量提升立法应为我国耕地保护法治化的关键环节,《耕地保护和质量提升法》也被《全国人大常委会2024年度立法工作计划》列为今年预备审议的项目。为了确保耕地质量提升立法的精准有效,有必要对现有规范性文件进行全面梳理和深入检视,并在此基础上探寻立法的基本逻辑及规范供给。具体而言,我国耕地质量提升立法需要遵循法治协调性、法治互鉴性、法治时空性三个基本逻辑,并重点围绕“谁来提升”“如何提升”在法律层面进行系统阐释和制度筹设。

集中供地政策对稳地价的影响

本文将集中供地政策的实施视为一项准自然实验,基于2021年3月以来土地微观交易数据,运用固定效应模型和倾向得分匹配法分析该政策实施对地价溢价率的影响及其传导机制。研究表明:集中供地政策在一定程度上降低了试点城市的地价溢价率,平均大约降低了2%,属于逆房地产周期的调控政策;集中供地政策通过房地产企业预期来影响地价溢价率;在时间效应上,实施集中供地政策后的两个月内稳地价效果显著;在空间效应上,实施集中供地政策地块的稳地价效应对比周边100~375km范围内显著有效;从城市规模上看,二线城市的政策效果强于一线城市,各城市土地竞拍的热度分化加剧,核心一、二线城市土地市场热度较高,冷门城市的政策效果强于热门城市。据此提出,集中供地政策具有降低地价溢价率的功能,是逆房地产周期的调控政策,应择机使用。

我国饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征及影响因素分析

文章旨在探究我国饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征及其影响因素。选取2005—2021年我国31个省份的月度面板数据,使用空间自相关和冷热点分析法深入探究饲料粮供给区域差异时空演化特征,进一步通过泰尔指数与空间杜宾模型深入剖析其驱动因素。结果显示,饲料粮供给冷点与热点区域均呈现集中态势,且其局部空间关联性较为明显。饲料粮供给空间分布格局检验结果表明,北部沿海地区多为“低-低”型区域聚集区,东北、东南沿海与西南地区多为“高-高”型区域聚集区。泰尔指数与结构性原因分析显示,饲料粮供给水平呈现明显正向空间溢出效应,其中组内差异是区际差异的关键因素。空间杜宾模型结果表明,土地生产率、交通运输水平、粮食生产机械投入和饲料粮加工水平是饲料粮供给水平的重要影响因素。

国际地缘大变局下的越欧班列规划与中越铁路对接

越南经济发展高度依赖于外贸驱动。随着外贸总量的不断扩大,原有以海路为主的外贸线路不仅日益难以满足对外货运的需求,而且潜藏着安全上的风险,中美战略竞争的加剧和新冠疫情的爆发则进一步暴露了越南海运能力不足的发展瓶颈。在此背景下,越南提出了越欧班列规划,试图通过中越铁路对接或者通过中南半岛东西交通走廊经印度和中东西亚打通连接越南—欧洲的外贸新通道,改变过度依赖海路运输的不利局面,实现外贸路线的多元化和均衡化,消除潜在的安全风险。随着俄乌冲突、中东乱局和红海危机等一系列地缘变局的发生,经中南半岛和印度洋的方案最终搁浅,而通过中越铁路对接,在中欧班列的基础上建设越欧班列成为唯一可行的方案。中越两国铁路对接意味着中南半岛南北铁路交通线与中国西部陆海新通道实现完全联网,并进一步将中国、中南半岛、中亚、中东、南亚和欧洲连为一体,不仅将为中越关系发展注入新动力,更将为中国周边和中南半岛地区带来更大的稳定性,助力高质量“一带一路”建设,推动国际秩序向着更加公平合理的方向发展。

城市存量用地再开发中的供需关系转型与广州实践

为深入探讨城市存量用地再开发的供需逻辑与实现机制,指出当前我国城市存量用地再开发实践中的需求方是渴望持续升值的市场资本,而供给方则是同时受到“现状、规划、适用政策”制约的存量地块。在此基础上,以广州为例开展实证研究,进一步剖析受政策制度演进影响的供需关系曲线对存量用地再开发规模解释的内在规律,并基于供需关系视角,重新审视我国的城市更新问题,针对存量转型的发展前景与空间生产特征提出若干思考。

基于土地利用变化的长江中游地区生态系统服务供需平衡研究

[目的]揭示生态系统服务供需平衡的时空特征,并进一步探究土地利用变化对生态系统服务供需平衡的双重效应及其影响机理。[方法]选取长江中游地区作为研究对象,引入生态系统服务供需量化矩阵分析生态系统供需平衡的时空格局,并运用土地利用变化生态贡献率模型分析土地利用变化对生态系统服务供需平衡的双重影响。[结果](1)研究期间,长江中游地区生态系统服务供需平衡状况持续恶化,主要是由建设用地大规模扩张和耕地、林地大面积缩减带来的生态系统服务供给能力减少和消费需求增加造成的。(2)长江中游地区不同类型生态系统服务供给间的关系在时间尺度上由权衡转为协同,需求和供给平衡间的协同关系在时间尺度上进一步增强,但不同类型生态系统服务供给、需求和供需平衡间的权衡或协同性质及其程度在空间尺度上却存在高度异质。(3)长江中游地区土地利用变化对生态系统服务供需平衡存在改善和恶化双重效应,且恶化效应显著大于改善效应,但引起生态系统服务及其分项服务供需改善和恶化的土地利用变化类型具有时序异质性。[结论]应促进具有协同改善生态系统服务供需平衡的土地利用变化类型,提升与区域主体生态系统服务功能一致的土地利用类型,以及遏制具有协同恶化生态系统服务供需平衡的土地利用变化类型,以实现区域生态系统服务供需改善。

产业供地准入规制:基本特征、减碳效应及优化建议

产业供地准入规制是促进产业用地提质增效与高质量发展的重要政策工具。本文揭示了产业供地准入规制的基本特征,并从功能、规模、结构和技术四个维度深入分析了其对碳减排的影响作用;为进一步强化产业供地准入规制的减碳效应,提出准入规制优化建议:确立准入规制减碳目标,将碳排放直接纳入准入条件,加强准入规制减碳效应的量化评估,推动准入规制与碳交易市场的有效衔接,以及完善准入规制的绿色金融支持等。