Index system and methods for comprehensive assessment of cross-border power grid interconnection projects

With the global economy integration and progress in energy transformation,it has become a general trend to surpass national boundaries to achieve wider and optimal energy resource allocations.Consequently,there is a critical n eed to adopt scie ntific approaches in assessi ng cross-border power grid interconnection projects.First,con sidering the promotion of large-scale renewable energy resources and improvements in system adequacy,a comprehensive assessment index system,including costs,socio-economic benefits,environmental benefits,and technical benefits,is established in this study.Second,a synthetic assessment framework is proposed for cross-border power grid interconnection projects based on the index system comprising cost-benefit analysis,with market and network simulations,iterative methods for indicator weight evaluation,and technique for order preferenee by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method for the project rankings.Fin ally,by assessi ng and comparing three cross-border projects betwee n Europe and Asia,the proposed index system and assessment framework have been proved to be effective and feasible;the results of this system can thus support investment decision-making related to such projects in the future.

Evaluation of Natural Ecological Environment in Guangzhou City Based on Remote Sensing Technology and Comprehensive Index Method

Based on the ETM remote sensing images of Guangzhou City in 2014, the spatial distribution results o f three environmental factors including vegetation coverage(NDVI), soil index(vegetation index of bare soil) and sl ope were obtained. By using comprehensive index method, the normalized environmental factors were weighted and superimposed, and the fi nal evaluation results of ecological environment in Guangzhou City were obtained. The results showed that overall situation of natural ecological environment in Guangzhou was not optimistic, that is, the area of land with bad, moderate, good and superior environment accounted for 59.70%, 35.79%, 4.50% and around 0.01% of total area of land in Guangzhou City respectively. Ecological environment was generally poor in the central urban districts in the south of Guangzhou City, while it was relatively better in the north and northeast. Attaching importance to the constr uction of greenbelts and greenways is an effective way to improve regional environmental quality and natural ecological e nvironment level.

Occupational Health Risk Assessment of Benzene,Toluene,and Xylene in Shanghai

Objective This study was designed to conduct a retrospective and systematic occupational health risk assessment(OHRA)of enterprises that used benzene,toluene,and xylene(BTX)in Shanghai,China.Methods All data for the study were obtained from 1,705 occupational health examination and evaluation reports from 2013 to 2017,and a semiquantitative model following Chinese OHRA guidelines(GBZ/T 298-2017)was applied for the assessment.Results The selected enterprises using BTX were mainly involved in manufacturing of products.Using the exposure level method,health risk levels associated with exposure to BTX were classified as medium,negligible,or low.However,the risk levels associated with benzene and toluene were significantly different according to job types,with gluers and inkers exhibiting greater health risks.For the same job type,the health risk levels assessed using the comprehensive index method were higher than those using the exposure level method.Conclusion Our OHRA reveals that workers who are exposed to BTX still face excessive health risk.Additionally,the risk level varied depending on job categories and exposure to specific chemicals.Therefore,additional control measures recommended by OHRA guidelines are essential to reduce worker exposure levels.

Heavy Metal Pollution Status and Health Risk Assessment in the Longjiang River

[Objectives] The purpose of this research was to investigate the water quality of the Longjiang River in Guangxi. Concentrations of heavy metals( As,Cd,Zn,Pb and Cu) in the surface water of Longjiang River were analyzed to figure out the distribution characteristics of heavy metal pollutants in this area. [Methods]The Nemerow comprehensive index method and the health risk assessment model were adopted to evaluate the grade of Longjiang River water quality and the health risk level imposed by heavy metals in the water. [Results] The concentrations of heavy metals in each sampling point conformed to Grade-II water quality standard. The water samples collected on 13 sampling points of the Longjiang River were clean and not polluted by heavy metals. The health risk values of heavy metals As and Zn were greater than Cd,Pb and Cu in the Longjiang River,but still lower than the maximum acceptable risk level 5. 0 × 10^(-5)a^(-1). [Conclusions]Water quality condition reflected by the comprehensive pollution index and the health risk value of heavy metal was consistent in the Longjiang River,showing as that the value in middle and lower reaches was slightly higher than in the upper reaches. As is the major pollutant of water environment health risk in the Longjiang River,and it should be regarded as the key object of water environment risk management in Longjiang River.

黄河流域中小河流水质评价的比较研究

我国中小河流众多,流域面积覆盖了全国85%的城镇及广大农村地区,是区域生产生活用水的主要来源和污染负荷排放的接纳者.开展中小河流水质综合评价对于客观、准确地评价水环境质量状况,制订水污染防治整体规划具有重要意义.以黄河流域河南省2条典型中小河流为研究对象,在识别河流水污染状况的基础上,采用单因子评价法、综合污染指数法、水质标识指数法和模糊综合评价4种方法对水质现状进行了综合评价,探讨了不同方法在中小河流水质评价中的适用性.结果表明:2条中小河流主要污染指标为NH_(3)-N、挥发酚及TP;水质标识指数法的评价结果与可靠性分析中的水质评价结果一致性最高,该方法得到的水质类别结果更加可靠.

基于三种水质指数方法的万泉河口健康评价

为了解海南万泉河口的水质变化特征现状,以2021年5月至2022年5月的溶氧量、氨氮、总氮、总磷以及五日生化需氧量为水质指标,分别采用单因子评价法、综合污染指数法和改进的灰色关联分析法对水质状况进行了分析与评价,并对三种评价方法的结果进行比较.结果表明:万泉河口各个位点都受到了不同程度的污染,多数位点的溶氧量和总氮含量超过中国Ⅲ类水环境质量标准,其中以位于沙美内海最南端的位点和位于河口北侧狭窄河道的位点污染最为严重,总氮和生化需氧量含量超过中国Ⅲ类水环境质量标准,并且污染程度呈现明显的季节性变化,旱季的污染程度较雨季更高.同单因子评价法与综合污染指数法相比,改进的灰色关联分析法能够较为全面且客观地评价污染物的影响,并能判断主要的污染物类别,可有效地进行水质评价.

基于ArcGIS的当涂县地质灾害风险调查与评价

地质灾害风险调查评价是防范地质灾害、降低风险的一种重要方法。通过ArcGIS软件,采用定量分析和统计评价模型相结合的方法,进行当涂县全境地质灾害的易发性、危险性和易损性评价,并据此进行地质灾害风险评估。调查及评价结果显示,当涂县全境可划分为地质灾害中风险、低风险和无风险区,其面积分别占全县面积的1.40%、2.27%和96.33%;当涂县地质灾害中风险区主要分布于白纻山和大青山南部中高丘区域内。本次评价成果可为地区地质灾害防治和风险预测、国土空间规划以及城市建设等领域提供技术支撑。

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

综合水质标识指数法在衢江渔业水域水质评价中的应用

为了促进渔业绿色高效发展,加强对渔业环境监测和治理,针对衢江段水域环境指标进行长期监测,并应用综合水质标识指数法对该渔业水域进行评价。结果表明,衢江渔业水质能够满足不同功能区的需要。2017—2021年衢江水质在波动中提升,特别是源头水质提升明显,分析结果与历年衢州渔业水质通报相符,这一方面说明采用综合水质标识指数法对水体的水质评价效果较好,另一方面也表明通过加大渔业水域生态调控与治理能够有效地改善区域水环境。

地质环境评价在超高层建筑选址中的应用——以武汉市为例

超高层建筑在缓和人地矛盾的同时存在多方面问题,本文从支撑条件和限制因素两方面系统分析超高层建筑选址影响因素,重点探讨地质环境在超高层建筑选址问题中的应用,采用层次分析法结合综合指数法,基于超高层建筑选址特点以环境地质条件、工程地质条件和地质灾害条件作为准则层,将相对高程、地形坡度等7项因子作为指标层,建立应用于超高层建筑选址的地质环境适宜性评价。本文以武汉市为例,分析武汉市地质环境条件及超高层建筑发展趋势,通过GIS平台划分评价单元,计算得到武汉市主城区超高层建筑选址适宜性评价成果图,对该地区规划建设提供指导意见。

广元市周边废弃煤矿酸性矿井涌水水质分析及地下水健康风险评价

为揭示酸性矿山废水对其周边地下水和地表水水质构成的影响,以及地下水中金属元素对人体健康的潜在危害,以广元市周边废弃煤矿为研究区域,对区域内23个地下水样品和39个地表水样品中的常规指标和金属元素进行测定和分析。基于内梅罗综合指数法和污染指数法分析研究区地下水及地表水环境质量,应用健康风险评价模型评价研究区地下水健康风险。结果表明:研究区范围内地表水中的TDS(总溶解性固体物质)、SO_(4)^(2-)、Ca^(2+)和Mg^(2+)浓度较高,其中TDS和SO_(4)^(2-)平均浓度最高,超过GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅲ类限值。研究区范围内地下水水质较差,SO_(4)^(2-)、TDS、Mg^(2+)、Ca^(2+)浓度较高,其中SO_(4)^(2-)以及TDS的平均浓度最高;地下水的金属元素平均浓度的大小顺序为TFe(Fe^(2+)、Fe^(3+)总和)>Al>Pb>Zn>Mn>Cu>TCr(Cr^(3+)、Cr^(6+)总和)>Cd>As>Hg,有9种金属元素超过GB/T 14848—2017《地下水质量标准》Ⅲ类限值;从地下水的金属元素浓度空间分布来看,东部地区高于西部地区,旺苍县地下水水质受重金属污染最为严重。内梅罗指数评价结果显示,大部分地表水评价结果为良好或极好,少部分为较差或极差,这与污染指数评价结果具有较好的一致性,主要由矿井涌水排放导致。健康风险评价结果表明,研究区地下水健康总风险较高,主要来源于致癌性元素As、Cd和Cr,致癌风险均高于最大限值(10-4),非致癌总风险均大于可接受的健康风险最大限值(1),表明地下水具有较为严重的非致癌健康风险;研究区地下水经口暴露途径出现的潜在非致癌风险超过皮肤暴露途径,且成年人的潜在非致癌风险高于儿童。研究区范围内地下水水质存在较大健康风险,该类水体不宜饮用,在日后使用过程中应重点防控重金属Al、Pb、Zn和Fe引致的风险。

赣州市南部稀土矿区地下水水质特征及风险评估

为了解赣州市南部某稀土矿地区地下水水质对当地居民生活健康的潜在影响,对赣州市信丰、安远、全南、寻乌四个地区进行地下水取样,按照《地下水质量评价标准》(GB/T 14848—2017)对数据进行分析,结合熵权综合指数法、健康风险评价法对研究区地下水水质进行评价。结果表明:2018—2020年,研究区采样点地下水氨氮浓度检测平均值分别为0.08、0.05、0.9 mg/L,pH平均值分别为6.58、6.51、6.71;安远地区氨氮浓度超标率为4.5%,其余三个地区均无氨氮超标;研究区硫酸盐、铅均不存在超标。熵权综合指数法评价结果显示,研究区地下水水质等级均为优良;饮水途径的非致癌风险健康评价HQ值均在标准限值内。

多种水质评价方法在木兰溪流域的比较应用

为了更好地掌握木兰溪流域的水质情况,采用单因子评价法、水质综合指数法、模糊综合评价法和模糊聚类法等4种方法,分别对该流域内2018~2020年蒋隔水库、濑溪、木兰溪三江口、仙游石马桥、仙游西台桥和园头桥等6个监测断面的水质进行了评价。结果表明:单因子评价法能直观的看出主要污染指标,水质综合指数法可对相同等级的水质样本进行进一步的比较,模糊综合评价法和模糊聚类法考虑了水质评价中的不确定性和模糊性,但模糊聚类法不适用于对水质进行精准的分级评价。通过对比不同水质评价方法在木兰溪水环境中的应用和适用性,使评价结果更加客观实际。

区域减灾能力研究:进展与挑战

【目的】减灾能力评估是区域综合风险防范和能力建设的重要环节。【方法】首先,综述了减灾能力相关研究进展,分析了减灾能力、恢复力和适应能力概念间的关系;其次,界定了综合减灾能力的概念,剖析了其内涵与特征,提出了区域综合减灾能力建设的结构体系和功能体系,从资源要素和过程要素两个维度构建了区域综合减灾能力评估指标体系;最后,探讨了减灾能力综合评估的方法及其适用性,以及未来减灾能力研究的发展方向与研究重点。【结果】结果表明,国外减灾能力相关研究倾向于将恢复力和适应能力的概念广义化,国内学者通过时间尺度区分减灾能力和适应能力;减灾能力评估研究多集中于单一灾种减灾能力评估,综合减灾能力评估还处于起步阶段。【结论】减灾能力具有综合性,综合减灾能力评估研究的关键问题和难点在于通用评价指标体系构建,未来需进一步关注其动态评估和实证研究。

Monte-Carlo模拟在土壤重金属生态风险评价中的应用

离散检测数据的重金属生态风险评估往往受采样数据空间覆盖度有限、检测数据随机波动等问题影响,使评价结果具有较大的不确定性.相对而言,基于地方区域的重金属概率统计以概率的形式解释污染等级的占比,能更有效指导风控方案的制定、污染的修复和场地的管控.本文应用Monte-Carlo模拟结合Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法,对云南省内某小流域土壤中的8种重金属(Cd、Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu、Ni和Zn)展开调查,分别从单种金属的污染等级、风险等级,以及整个区域的生态风险三个维度阐述当地的污染状况,系统性评估了当地的生态风险.研究表明Cd是主要污染贡献因子,其生态风险应引起重点关注.本研究证实了Monte-Carlo模拟可有效平衡Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法的随机性,将二者结合可更加全面精确地反映重金属的生态风险.

基于干旱风险的西藏青稞保险费率厘定及预测

以西藏青稞主要种植区为例,基于致灾因子危险性指数、承灾体暴露性指数、承灾体易损性指数和防灾减灾能力构建干旱灾害综合风险评估模型,并进行干旱灾害风险评估及区划,利用非参数法厘定各县青稞的纯保险费率,在风险区划结果基础上修正纯保险费率,再结合改进GM(1,1)模型和R/S方法预测未来修正纯保险费率。结果表明:(1)基于干旱致灾因子危险性指数和承灾体易损性指数的风险等级呈中部区域低两边高的趋势,基于干旱承灾体暴露性指数、防灾减灾能力和干旱灾害综合风险指数的风险等级由东向西有逐渐加重的趋势。(2)各县青稞保险的纯保险费率水平介于1.07%~9.79%,相差不大;修正后的纯保险费率介于1.86%~17.02%,相差较大。(3)基于干旱致灾因子危险性指数、承灾体暴露性指数和承灾体易损性指数修正下的纯保险费率空间分布呈中部高两边低的特点,基于干旱防灾减灾能力和干旱灾害综合风险指数修正下的纯保险费率呈现中部高、局部高和两边低的特征。说明科学合理的厘定纯保险费率应考虑多种干旱指数的综合影响。(4)首次利用改进GM(1,1)模型和R/S方法预测西藏青稞主要种植区未来修正纯保险费率的预测值有微弱的上升,上升率为0.21个百分点·10a^(-1)。构建的综合风险指数总体能客观反映西藏青稞干旱灾害风险水平,区划结果可为纯保险费率的修正提供基础支撑,进而为提高青稞农业保险服务的精确性提供科学依据。

以ICF理论为指导的社区老年糖尿病患者综合评估指标体系的构建

目的构建适用于社区老年糖尿病患者综合评估的指标体系,为患者制定全面科学的评估工具提供理论依据。方法基于《国际功能、残疾和健康分类》理论,经过文献分析法、专家会议法和两轮德尔菲法建立社区老年糖尿病患者综合评估指标体系,并应用层次分析法确认指标权重。结果两轮咨询表回收率各为100.0%和80.0%;专家熟悉程度各为0.887、0.933,判断依据各为0.960、0.950,权威程度各为0.924、0.942。第1轮各指标重要性均数为3.53~4.93,变异系数为0.05~0.38,协调系数为0.218(χ^(2)=313.348,P<0.01);第2轮各指标重要性均数为3.75~4.92,变异系数为0.06~0.26,协调系数为0.312(χ^(2)=334.843,P<0.01)。两轮专家函询后,依据指标删除标准及专家建议,最终构成6个一级指标、18个二级指标及64个三级指标构成的社区老年糖尿病患者综合评估指标体系。结论基于ICF理论构建的社区老年糖尿病患者综合评估指标体系科学且可行,可为社区老年糖尿病患者的评估工作提供理论依据。

箕山河流域水环境现状及原因分析

为探究箕山河流域水质污染现状及成因,选设7处监测断面和6类水质评价因子,采用单因子评价法、综合污染指数法和3种不同算法的内梅罗污染指数法,对箕山河流域水质现状进行综合性评价。结果表明:7处监测断面主要超标因子是TN;COD、氨氮次之。基于单因子评价法和3种不同算法的内梅罗污染指数法进行水质分析,7处监测断面水质均属劣Ⅴ类,综合污染指数法所得各断面均属重度污染。根据水质现状分析结果对污染原因展开调查分析发现,流域水质在断面1、断面3和断面4处恶化明显,原因分别是城市生活源排口、工业园区出水、畜禽养殖+乡镇生活源。

基于单因子评价法和综合污染指数法解析龙凤河水质状况

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