Approach Evaluating an Investment Project under Uncertainty by Risky Index of Time

The effectiveness of evaluating an investment project based on predicting cash flows depends on the uncertainty of its future cash flows. The remoter the cash flows are, the higher the uncertainty is. Because of this, this paper suggests to discount cash flows by applying risky index of time （RIT）. Thus, the discount rate used to discount the distant cash flows is higher that the discount rate used to discount the near cash flows. By this systematic method, the risk caused by the uncertainty of future cash flows can be hedged in making investment decision. To a certain degree, this approach is reasonable in evaluating investment alternatives under uncertainty. Furthermore, the paper puts forward a practical approach on determining RIT in practice.

市政道路工程投资估算方法改进研究

2007版《市政工程投资估算指标》自发布以来,在一定阶段和时期,发挥了巨大作用,但经过十几年的运用后,因为设计方案、社会生产力、施工技术和生产工艺的变化,采用2007版《市政工程投资估算指标》所估算的工程造价与实际脱节,适用性日益减弱。为解决现有投资估算管理体系存在的问题,通过数据挖掘,总结市政道路工程的技术和经济规律,发现市政道路工程经过“分解”和“组合”后,看似做法和规格各异的主体工程估算指标具有较强的规律性,结合单位实物工程量法和当地的预算定额,提炼组合单位造价指标可以做到应有的综合性、概括性和准确性,且简便快捷。对现有投资估算方法的改进,可以弥补现有投资估算体系不足,同时为广大工程技术和经济人员在时间紧、资料有限的情况估算工程投资提供参考。