Migration of Cr_2O_7^(2-) and Butanone in Soil and Groundwater System After the Tianjin Port 8·12 Explosion

After the Tianjin Port 8.12 explosion, an enormous amount of potassium dichromate （K2Cr2O7） and butanone （CH3COCH2CH3） leaked into the coastal soil-groundwater system, which potentially threatened the environment and human health. Determining the transport process of hazards is necessary to establish guidelines for remediating the contaminated area. This work aims to investigate the migration of potassium dichromate and butanone in the coastal soil-groundwater system through a coupling unsaturated-saturated numerical model, incorporating the HYDRUS model into the MODFLOW/ MT3D model. In the unsaturated zone, two-dimensional HYDRUS model was applied, and its recharge flux at the bottom boundary was utilized as the input of MODFLOW/MT3D model in the saturated zone. Results showed that Cr2O^（2-）7 migrated much faster than butanone in the unsaturated zone and reached the water table in about 1 year. In comparison, butanone was unlikely to enter the aquifer even 5 years later with a migration depth of about 2.2 m. Driven by groundwater, the Cr2O^（2-）7 that entered the aquifer migrated about 161 m toward southeast 5 years later. In the saturated zone, the contamination plume covered mainly the southeast area due to the groundwater flow direction.

TPFTZ(Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone)——A New Pattern of China's Openning to the Outside World

Under the guidance of Deng Xiao-ping’s strategic think-ing of openning to the outside world, the structure of om-nibearing openness has basically taken shape in China. Follow-

Monitoring and analysis of surface deformation in land reclamation area based on SBAS-InSAR technology—take Tianjin port for example

In order to explore the applicability of SBAS-InSAR technology to the deformation monitoring in coastal reclamation areas,this paper,based on 28 Sentinel-1A images,uses SBAS-InSAR technology to obtain the surface deformation information of the Tianjin Port reclamation area from January 2018 to November 2019,which reveals the characteristics of surface deformation in the land reclamation area of Tianjin Port and analyzes the relationship between the subsidence rate and reclamation time and land use type.The results show that the land reclamation area of Tianjin Port has the characteristics of a wide range of subsidence rate,uneven settlement and multiple settlement funnels.The subsidence rate ranges from-74.9 to19.7mm/a and it is inversely proportional to the land reclamation time.The subsidence rate of the early reclamation area is smaller,while that of the newly reclamation area is higher.The subsidence rate varies greatly among different land use types.This study verifies the feasibility of SBAS-InSAR Technology in the deformation monitoring of reclamation areas,and provides ideas for the monitoring and analysis of land subsidence in coastal areas such as coastal zones,islands and tidal flat.

Research on port ecological suitability evaluation index system and evaluation model

Along with the rapid development of port building, the negative impacts of port＇s construction and operation on the coastline ecosystem are also increasingly strong. Therefore, it＇s urgent to establish a scientific and complete system of port ecological suitability evaluation. This paper pointed out the characteristics of port ecological effects and the principles of selecting evaluation index, and used the ＂pressure-state-response （PSR）＂ model to analysis the various pressures on the environment caused by port construction and operation, and the system＇s response. On this basis, we constructed the port ecological suitability evaluation index. This model used the combination of qualitative and quantitative analytic hierarchy process, to meet the multi-level, multi-objective characteristics of evaluation index system. The evaluation index system and evaluation model can be used to analysis the ecological suitability of port projects comprehensively and have some guiding significance to the port ecological suitability evaluation.

Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Xiawan Port based on modified potential ecological risk index

Modified potential ecological risk index （MRI） was proposed based on the potential ecological risk index （RI） and risk assessment code （RAC） by modifying an index. The modified index was relevant to the chemical speciation of heavy metals. Xiawan Port, a typical region contaminated by industrial production, was selected as a case study area. The total concentrations and chemical speciation of heavy metals in sediments of Xiawan Port were analyzed. The experimental data indicate that Xiawan Port is seriously polluted by heavy metals, especially by Cd. The risks of heavy metals are evaluated by RI, RAC and MRI, respectively. The resluts of MRI show that the risks of heavy metals are in the decreasing order of Cd〉Pb〉Cu〉Zn. Comparison of results by different methods reveals that MRI integrates the characters of RI and RAC. MRI is recognized to be useful for risk managemnt of heavy metals in sediments.

PICC和PORT静脉输液技术综合输液效果比较

目的对PICC和PORT的综合效果指数进行测算,以评价两种中心静脉输液技术的综合输液效果。方法抽取上海市某三级甲等医院采用PICC或PORT行中长期静脉输液的肿瘤患者为研究对象,通过回顾性队列研究和横断面调查收集两种静脉输液技术的安全性、有效性及患者体验相关指标,测算并比较两种中心静脉输液技术在总留置时间、留置3~个月、6~个月及9~12个月的综合效果指数。结果PICC和PORT置管患者分别纳入377例、293例,PICC留置时间显著短于PORT,置管及维护过程中次要并发症发生率显著高于PORT,生活质量得分显著低于PORT(均P<0.05)。PICC在总留置时间、留置3~个月、6~个月及9~12个月的综合效果指数值均小于PORT。结论PORT的综合输液效果优于PICC,从输液效果角度,建议优先选择PORT作为中长期静脉输液的血管管路。

口岸经济高质量发展水平评价指标体系构建与测度——基于云南的实证研究

加快口岸由“通道经济”转型为“产业经济”,是“一带一路”建设高质量发展的重要内容。基于高质量发展目标要求,对口岸经济高质量发展的内涵、特征进行学理性探讨,依托层次分析思想构建测度口岸经济高质量发展水平的评价指标体系。以边境口岸数量多、类型丰富的云南省为研究对象,选取2012—2021年数据,运用CRITIC权重法,对云南口岸经济高质量发展水平进行测度并分析其趋势特征。研究发现:样本期内云南口岸经济高质量发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,口岸经济协调发展和开放发展提升显著,创新发展有待加强,共享作用显现,绿色发展不平稳,岸城协调性不足。推动云南口岸经济高质量发展要转变发展理念,扩大高水平对外开放,建立岸岸、岸城协调发展机制,完善口岸基础设施,加强口岸开放发展能力,以此推进云南口岸现代化建设进程。

采用云重心评判法的港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价

为突破单环节评价港口船舶溢油应急能力的局限性,合理配置资源,采用云重心评判法全环节评估港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,面向应急准备、预警、行动、恢复全环节,参照人-机-环境-管理系统理论和国际国内规定,建立综合应急能力评价指标体系;针对传统评价指标因素未涉及模糊性和随机性的问题,用加权偏离度确定定性指标与定量数值间的转化关系;利用层次分析法(AHP)优化评价意见,弥补评价样本欠充分带来的精度缺陷;最后,以上海港为例,对船舶溢油综合应急能力评价作实证研究。结果表明:云重心评判法能合理评价港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,为健全和完备应急能力提供理论依据,为港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价提供了一种新思路。

高质量发展视角下京津冀地区WEF系统综合评价研究

为综合评价京津冀地区的高质量发展水平,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享等5个维度构建高质量发展评价指标体系,采用熵值-变异系数综合赋权法计算指标权重,利用线性加权法构建综合评价指数模型测度京津冀地区WEF系统高质量发展的水平,并基于灰色关联度模型探究影响WEF系统高质量发展的关键因子与维度。结果表明:2011—2021年京津冀地区WEF系统综合评价指数呈现上升趋势,空间尺度上3个省市的均值排序为北京市>河北省>天津市;京津冀地区WEF系统各维度指数表现出不同的时空特征,其中共享维度表现出下降趋势,创新维度的空间差异性最显著;粮食产量、生活耗能占比、万元GDP耗能量、生活用水量占比、第三产业耗能占比等指标是影响WEF系统高质量发展的关键因子,协调与共享是影响WEF系统高质量发展的关键维度,本研究可为区域资源高水平管理提供科学的理论依据。

“信息流”视角下京津冀城市群网络格局演变特征及影响机制

信息流是信息时代测度区域城市网络格局的核心指标。为探索京津冀“城市—区域”网络格局演变规律,选用京津冀13个城市2011—2019年的百度指数数据,依托ArcGIS、Ucinet及地理探测器,计算信息流总量、网络密度、优势流、中心性、QAP相关系数,剖析长时序截面城市群网络格局演变特征及多因素交互作用对网络结构的影响机制。结果表明:(1)京津冀城市群整体网络趋于均衡,呈现以等级指向和中心指向为主的“弓”形分布特征,核心网络由强“轴—轴”结构向“多边形”稳固结构演进;(2)城市层级波动趋于缓和,“一核双城多支点”格局更加明晰,单核集聚现象依旧突出;(3)多要素耦合作用下人口规模不再构成影响城市网络的最重要因素,创新能力成为区域网络均衡化的稳定加速器。未来需加强区域资源共享与协调联动,资源配置向节点/边缘城市倾斜,并加大创新研发投入和政策支持力度,培育城市网络格局优化的新动能。

京津冀区域制造业数字化转型政策量化研究——基于PMC指数模型

制造业发展水平是一国工业实力的重要体现,也是一国综合国力的重要衡量标准。制造业高质量发展是我国大力发展实体经济、打造新型工业化优势的必要条件。对制造业数字化转型政策进行评价有助于推动制造业数字化转型。运用PMC指数模型对京津冀区域制造业数字化转型相关政策进行量化评价。基于已有研究成果,对2015—2023年京津冀区域以及我国部分省份和一些城市典型制造业数字化转型政策文本高频词进行提炼,构建区域制造业数字化转型政策评价指标模型,对京津冀区域制造业数字化转型政策进行综合性分析与协同性评价。研究发现,京津冀区域制造业数字化转型政策存在政策文本内容不完善、政策工具运用不全面、政策执行机制有待完善等问题,并提出了相应的优化路径。

低碳港口评价指标体系的创建和赋值研究

针对低碳港口评价标准缺失的现状,以绿色、节能、降碳、减污为基本出发点,基于P-S-R模型,运用层次分析法和德尔菲法创建低碳港口评价的指标体系,涵盖了碳排放指标、能源活动指标、水资源指标、绿色建筑指标、绿色用电指标、环境碳汇指标和管理体系指标7项一级指标和21项二级指标。指标体系采用定量和定性指标结合的方式,具有较好的系统性、科学性和港口特色,可操作性强,对港口降碳减排具有较好的协同性。同时提出低碳港口评价指标权重的赋值方法和判断标准,并依据规范标准、行业发展规划、管理条例和港口历年统计资料,提供了指标评价的基准值。研究成果为低碳港口创建提供了完整、科学的评价依据,具有较好的应用前景。

京津冀地区现代化进程的动态演进及发展预测

京津冀地区现代化发展历程是具有中国特色的区域发展要素全方位质量提升的过程。基于经济、社会、民生和生态环境4个维度构建京津冀地区现代化评价指标体系,应用熵权TOPSIS法、核密度估计等模型测算并分析2000—2021年京津冀地区现代化发展的动态演进特征,应用空间马尔可夫链研究京津冀地区现代化发展的空间格局,并对现代化发展程度影响进行预测。研究表明,京津冀地区现代化历经调整适应期、逐步提升期、稳步推进期3个阶段,阶段性发展特征显著。京津冀各区域现代化发展有普遍性和趋同性,同时也具有特殊性和差异性。京津冀地区现代化进程中的空间近邻效应、分层抱团效应明显,区域现代化受周边相邻区域的影响,同时和北京、天津等区域相邻的城市,其向上转移的概率会增加。双碳目标、高质量发展等战略的提出会使未来京津冀地区中国式现代化发展更加理性、平稳和均衡。政策是引领、推动和完善京津冀地区推进现代化的重要动力,重大事件的热点效应是加速京津冀地区现代化进程的催化剂。

我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发设计——源于京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区的气温数据

我国幅员辽阔,对天气变化非常敏感,迫切需要对天气风险进行有效管理,以消除或减少天气风险对各行业的不利影响。从产品研发设计视角出发,以京津冀“首都经济圈”核心功能区为例,参考国外成熟产品,对我国本土气温指数期货产品进行合约设计和模拟定价,根据行业需求阐述产品的应用价值,提出产品在天气风险管理中的显著作用。研究贡献有,搭建起我国本土气温指数期货产品的研发体系;基于国外成熟市场规则构建出符合我国国情的气温指数期货产品标准化合约框架;运用ARMA模型构建出精确度高的气温预测模型;采用蒙特卡罗模拟法制定出气温指数期货两款产品价格;明确产品的应用推广需求和风险管理作用。

Macrobenthos Community Structure and Its Relations With Environmental Factors in Three Reservoirs in Tianjin

[Objective] The aim was to research macrobenthos community structure and its relations with environmental factors in three reservoirs. [Method] Benthic diversity and water quality of Yuqiao Reservoir, Beidagang Reservoir and Er- wangzhuang Reservoir were investigated in May, July and September 2011, respec- tively. []Result] Of all the 14 sampling sites, 22 species of macroinvertebrates were collected, totally, which included 6 species of aquatic insects, 7 species of Mollusca, 2 species of Crustacean, 7 species of Oligochaeta. The species of macroinverte- brates during May, July and September in Yuqiao reservoir were 11, 8 and 10, respectively. The dominant species were Chironomus sinicus, and Monopylephorus limosus. The average density and biomass of the macrobenthos were 132.43 ind./m2 and 50.09 g/m2. Yuqiao reservoir was mostly at status of premediate polluted, according to the Margalef index, Shannon index and Pielou index. The species of during May, July and September in Beidagang reservoir were 5 5 and 5, respectively. The dominant species were Chironomus sinicus, Penaeus vannamei. The average density and biomass of the macrobenthos were 218 ind./m2 and 2.70 g/m2. Beidagang reservoir was mostly at status of heavy polluted, accord- ing to the Margalef index, Shannon-wiener index, Pielou index. The species of during May, July and September in Erwangzhuang reservoir were 3, 5 and 5, respectively. The dominant species were Monopylephorus limosus, Chi- ronomus sinicus. The average density and biomass of the macrobenthos were 104 ind/m2 and 0.20 g/m2. Erwangzhuang reservoir was mostly at status of intermediate polluted, according to the Margalef index, Shannon index, Pielou index. The density of zoobenthos in Yuqiao Reservoir was positively significantly correlated with TP （P〉 0.05）, negatively correlated with NH4＋-N （P〉0.05）, positively correlated with COD （P〈 0.01）, not significantly correlated with other environment factors （P〉0.05）. There was no significant correlation between biomass of zoobenthos and environment factors. The density of zoobenthos in Beidagang Reservoir with NH4＋-N was positively signif- icantly correlated （P〈0.05）, not significantly correlated with other aquatic environment factors （P〉0.05）. There was no significant correlation between biomass of zoobenthos and environment factors. The density of zoobenthos in Erwangzhuang Reser- voir with NO3-N was positively significantly correlated （P〈0.05）, not significant cor- related with other aquatic environment factors （F〉0.05）. The biomass of zoobenthos in Erwangzhuang Reservoir with NH4＋-N was positively significantly correlated （P〈 0.05）, not significant correlated with other aquatic environment factors （P〉0.05）. [Conclusion] It is indicated that this three reservoirs were all eutrophied and polluted, and the eurephication extent change of water in three reservoirs is as follows： Beidagang reservoir〉Erwangzhuang reservoir〉Yuqiao reservoir.

基于综合生物标志物响应法的渔港重金属污染风险评价

渔港是近海污染物的重要汇集地之一,其中重金属污染尤为突出,但往往缺乏充分的环境监测数据和科学研究。本研究采集了广东和广西4个渔港的表层海水和翡翠贻贝(Perna viridis)样品,测定海水和贻贝软组织中的重金属(Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd、As和Cr)含量,同时分析贻贝肝胰腺组织中超氧化物歧化酶(superoxide dismutase,SOD)、谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(glutathione peroxidase,GPx)、过氧化氢酶(catalase,CAT)活力以及丙二醛(malondialdehyde,MDA)含量等与抗氧化防御系统有关的生物标志物水平,并利用综合生物标志物响应(integrated biomarker response,IBR)指数法对不同渔港重金属污染水平进行综合评价。结果表明,海水和贻贝软组织中重金属含量均为较低水平,海水重金属综合污染指数(PI)由高至低依次为蛇口渔港>南澫渔港>达濠渔港>渔万渔港,处于自然本底状态。贻贝体内重金属综合污染指数(Pin)由高至低依次为渔万渔港>蛇口渔港>南澫渔港>达濠渔港,处于无污染水平。另外,蛇口渔港海水与贻贝组织中Cu浓度在4个渔港中均表现为最高。IBR指数评价结果表现为蛇口渔港>渔万渔港>达濠渔港>南澫渔港,蛇口渔港的IBR值最高,这与海水重金属综合污染指数结果相一致。相关性分析表明,IBR指数与海水和贻贝体内重金属综合污染指数无显著相关性,但与海水和贻贝组织中Cu的浓度具有显著正相关性。综上,蛇口渔港重金属污染风险相对较高,渔港环境中Cu污染可能需要重点关注,IBR指数综合评价与化学分析相结合在渔港环境污染评价方面具有较好的应用价值。

海峡两岸生态环境质量差异性评价及港口发展对其的影响

21世纪以来,中国城市化进程不断加快,大量人口涌入沿海地区,海峡两岸经贸活动也越来越频繁,导致脆弱的沿海地区面临较大的生态风险,因此动态监测并评价两岸生态质量对推动两岸城市生态文明建设及促进两岸和谐统一发展具有重要意义。利用谷歌地球引擎(GEE)平台调用2000—2022年Landsat及MODIS数据集,采用主成分分析法构建遥感生态指数的基础上,运用差值分析、空间自相关分析评价两岸生态环境质量的差异性,并在建立两岸主要港口多环缓冲区的基础上探讨港口规模及其周边城市建设对生态环境质量的影响。结果表明:(1)2000—2010年海峡两岸生态环境质量呈“西升东降”的特征,2010—2022年海峡两岸生态环境质量均呈波动上升趋势,新冠疫情期间呈先增后减的趋势,两岸生态环境质量差距逐渐缩小。(2)东岸生态环境质量优于西岸,生态环境质量优良等级区域主要分布在太姥山、玉山山脉等山地区域,较差等级区域主要分布在湖里区和晋江市等城市工业聚集区,2000—2010年生态环境质量等级显著退化的区域主要为东岸的山地区域,2010—2020年等级显著退化的区域主要为西岸的沿海区域。(3)两岸生态环境质量具有较强的空间自相关性,处于山地区域的城市呈高值聚集,西岸的厦漳泉、福州市和莆田市以及东岸近海岸城市呈低值聚集。(4)海峡两岸港口规模及其周边城市建设对生态环境质量的影响具有相似性,离港口距离越远,城市建设用地面积占比越小,生态环境质量越好,班轮运输阶段港口规模越大其周边生态环境质量也越差;直航运输阶段港口规模对生态环境质量的影响减弱并逐步改善。(5)受新冠疫情影响,港口周边生态环境质量稍有转好,且西岸港口规模较大的厦门港和福州港较东岸港口更注重生态建设。研究可为海峡两岸城市生态文明建设提供基础数据支撑,也为生态港口规划提供科学决策依据,同时为促进两岸和谐发展提供助力。

基于GEE和RSEI的京津冀地区生态环境质量时序动态评估

探究京津冀地区生态环境质量时空变化特征及其驱动因素,为该地区可持续协调、高质量一体化发展提供依据。基于MODIS数据,借助Google Earth Engine(GEE)平台构建遥感生态指数(RSEI)模型,辅以多种空间分析和统计方法对京津冀地区及其4大功能区生态环境质量进行评价和变化监测。结果表明,1)京津冀地区RSEI均值由2001年的0.512增至2020年的0.575,增幅达12.30%,多年均值为0.499,总体处于中等水平。2)生态环境质量整体呈现“西北优、东南差”的空间格局,35.87%的区域变好,以变好1个等级为主。3)各功能区生态环境质量均得到了改善,其中南部功能拓展区、中部核心功能区的改善最为显著,改善区域占比分别为49.66%、45.79%。4)各因子对生态环境质量的影响不同,自然因素中的降水以及人为因素中的人口和土地利用为主导因素。总的来说,京津冀地区2001-2020年生态环境质量向好,但未来仍需加强人工干预,持续扩大生态优良区。

长江中游港口的时空演变与预测——对湖南省城陵矶港的启示

本文采用标准差椭圆、重心模型和赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数研究1998—2021年间长江中游集装箱港口的时空演变特征,同时使用线性预测方法对2025—2035年该地区港口集装箱吞吐量进行预测。研究结果表明:赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数在总体上虽有所下降,但市场结构整体上仍处于高寡占Ⅱ型,说明长江中游地区内的集装箱港口分布更加均衡并趋于分散化;长江中游港口的集装箱吞吐量重心在江西省境内,重心轨迹呈现出自东北向西南,再自东南向西北移动的趋势,标准差椭圆的主要分布态势呈现由东北至西南的分布;长江中游港口的集装箱吞吐量呈稳步增长趋势,预测在2035年能达到752万标准箱。本研究能对长江中游集装箱港口提升自身竞争力提供数据参考,以更好发挥港口的辐射带动作用,推动区域港口群协同发展。