Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., <5 t/(ha·yr), 15.8% area low risk, i.e., 5-25 t/(ha·yr) and 7.5% area moderate risk, i.e., 25-50 t/(ha·yr) in the region. The risk was high, i.e., 50-100 t/(ha·yr) and very high, i.e., >100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic development in the region in future.

Decadal trends in precipitable water vapor over the Indus River Basin using ERA5 reanalysis data

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)constitutes a pivotal parameter within the domains of atmospheric science,and remote sensing due to its profound influence on Earth’s climate dynamics and weather patterns.It exerts a significant impact on atmospheric stability absorption and emission of radiation,thus engendering alterations in the Earth’s radiative equilibrium.As such,precise quantification of PWV holds the potential to enhance weather prognostication and fortify preparedness against severe meteorological phenomena.This study aimed to elucidate the spatial and temporal changes in seasonal and annual PWV across the Indus River Basin and its sub-basins using ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The present study used ERA5 PWV(entire atmospheric column),air temperature at 2 m(t2m)and 500 hPa(T_500hPa),evapotranspiration,and total cloud cover data from 1960 to 2021.Theil Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used for trend analysis.Correlation and multiple regression methods were used to understand the association of PWV with other factors.The findings have unveiled the highest increase in mean PWV during the monsoon(0.40 mm/decade),followed by premonsoon(0.37 mm/decade),post-monsoon(0.27 mm/decade),and winter(0.19 mm/decade)throughout the study period.Additionally,the mean PWV exhibited the most pronounced positive trend in the sub-basin Lower Indus(LI),followed by Panjnad(P),Kabul(K),and Upper Indus(UI)across all seasons,except winter.Annual PWV has also risen in the Indus basin and its sub-basins over the last six decades.PWV exhibits a consistent upward trend up to an elevation of 3500 m within the basin which is most pronounced during the monsoon season,followed by the pre-monsoon.The escalating PWV within the basin is reasonably ascribed to increasing air temperatures,augmented evapotranspiration,and heightened cloud cover.These findings hold potential utility for pertinent authorities engaged in water resource management and planning.

Comprehensive isotopic characterization of the hydrological processes of the Indus river basin(IRB):A comparison between Upper Indus Basin(UIB)and Lower Indus Basin(LIB)

The Indus river basin(IRB)is one of the most depleted water basins globally,having significant challenges for its water sector.Monitoring of stable isotope composition(δ^(18)O and δ^(2)H)across IRB is a critical aspect that can provide deeper insights for investigating complex hydrological processes.This work analyses the spatial pattern of the isotopic signature using a comprehensive compilation of available datasets of the Global Network of Isotopes in River(GNIR)and Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation(GNIP),along with the previously published isotopic studies in the Indus basin.Additionally,this work provides a detailed comparison of the isotopic signature of the Upper Indus Basin(UIB),and Lower Indus Basin(LIB).The IRBs waterline was found to beδ^(2)H=7.89×δ^(18)O+13.51,which shows a close similarity with the Global Meteoric Water Line(GMWL),indicating the meteoric origin of the water with insignificant secondary evaporation prevailing across the basin.The Main Indus Channel(MIC)river water line(δ^(2)H=8.88×δ^(18)O+26.05)indicates a major contribution from the meteoric origin(precipitation/rain)of water with minimal effect of evaporation processes.The water line for UIB samples,(δ^(2)H=7.88×δ^(18)O+11.94)was found to be moderately higher in slope than LIB samples(δ^(2)H=7.17×δ^(18)O+7.16).However,the slopes of both UIB and LIB river water lines closely approached the slope of GMWL and were consistent with the slope of IRB water line,which indicates similarity in contribution of water sources.The higher slope and intercept in UIB suggest that meteoric water sources contributed to streamflow viz.from snow/glacier with insignificant evapotranspiration,which is also validated by the scarce vegetation cover in the UIB.However,the lower slope and intercept in LIB suggest stream water contribution from significantly evaporated groundwater and precipitation with a complete homogenization of discharge coming from the UIB.Results substantiate that distinct isotopic signatures found in different stretches of the IRB and along the MIC are caused by variations in basin characteristics,hydro-meteorological processes,water mixing,and minor influence of anthropogenic variables.

Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin,Pakistan

Climate change strongly influences the available water resources in a watershed due to direct linkage of atmospheric driving forces and changes in watershed hydrological processes.Understanding how these climatic changes affect watershed hydrology is essential for human society and environmental processes.Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)dataset of three GCM's(BCC-CSM2-MR,INM-CM5-0,and MPIESM1-2-HR)with resolution of 100 km has been analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the Astore catchment during 2020-2070.Bias correction method was used to reduce errors.In this study,statistical significance of trends was performed by using the Man-Kendall test.Sen's estimator determined the magnitude of the trend on both seasonal and annual scales at Rama Rattu and Astore stations.MPI-ESM1-2-HR showed better results with coefficient of determination(COD)ranging from 0.70-0.74 for precipitation and 0.90-0.92 for maximum and minimum temperature at Astore,Rama,and Rattu followed by INM-CM5-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR.University of British Columbia Watershed model was used to attain the future hydrological series and to analyze the hydrological response of Astore River Basin to climate change.Results revealed that by the end of the 2070s,average annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 26.55%under the SSP1-2.6,6.91%under SSP2-4.5,and decrease up to 21.62%under the SSP5-8.5.Precipitation also showed considerable variability during summer and winter.The projected temperature showed an increasing trend that may cause melting of glaciers.The projected increase in temperature ranges from-0.66℃ to 0.50℃,0.9℃ to 1.5℃ and 1.18℃ to 2℃ under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively.Simulated streamflows presented a slight increase by all scenarios.Maximum streamflow was generated under SSP5-8.5 followed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6.The snowmelt and groundwater contributions to streamflow have decreased whereas rainfall and glacier melt components have increased on the other hand.The projected streamflows(2020-2070)compared to the control period(1990-2014)showed a reduction of 3%-11%,2%-9%,and 1%-7%by SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.The results revealed detailed insights into the performance of three GCMs,which can serve as a blueprint for regional policymaking and be expanded upon to establish adaption measures.

Assessment of the spatial extent of permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)

Climate change differentially influences the frozen ground,a major dynamic component of the cryosphere,on a local and regional scale.Under the warming climate with pronounced effects reported at higher altitudes,the characterization of the frozen ground is very important in the Upper Indus Basin(UIB),an important and critical region with respect to climate and hydro-glaciological dynamics.In this study,the efficiency and reliability of the surface frost number model are assessed in delineating the spatial extent of different classes of frozen ground in the region.The daily MODIS land surface temperature(LST)with ground surface temperature(GST)and surface geomorphological expressions as ground validation datasets are used jointly in efficiently determining the extent of different classes of frozen ground(continuous and discontinuous permafrost and seasonal frost).The LST and GST resonate with each other in the annual cycle of temperature variation,however,with mean annual LST exhibiting an offset(cold bias)of 5 to 7℃relative to mean GST.This study shows that the highest permafrost extent is observed in areas where the lowest thinning rates of glacier ice are reported and vice versa.The surface frost number model categorizes an area of 38%±3%and 15%±3%in the UIB as permafrost and seasonal frost,respectively.Based on the altitude model,the lower limit of alpine permafrost is approximated at a mean altitude of 4919±590 m a.s.l.in the UIB.The present study acts as preliminary work in the data sparse and inaccessible regions of the UIB in characterizing the frozen and unfrozen ground and may act as a promising input data source in glaciohydro-meteorological models for the Himalaya and Karakoram.In addition,the study also underlines the consideration of this derelict cryospheric climatic variable in defining and accounting for the sustainable development of socio-economic systems through its intricate ramification on agricultural activity,landscape stability and infrastructure.

Evaluating spatial and elevation-wise daytime/nighttime LST trends across the Indus River Basin

Land surface temperature(LST)is a crucial parameter for understanding the Earth's surface energy balance,which provides insights into climate dynamics and local environmental conditions.Thus,the present study aims to evaluate the spatial and elevation-wise trends in the daytime,nighttime,and mean LST across the Indus River Basin(IRB)using MODIS 8-day product for the period between 2002 and 2022.The elevation,cloud cover,and land cover type data are used for explaining the emerging LST trends.The Theil slope estimator and MannKendall significance test were used for estimating the seasonal and annual LST trends.The findings show warming in mean daytime(0.020-0.024℃/yr)(except winter and post-monsoon),nighttime(0.013-0.049℃/yr),and mean(0.001-0.042℃/yr)LST in all the seasons(highest in monsoon).The annual mean nighttime LST(0.025℃/yr)is rising significantly faster than the mean daytime LST(0.0016℃/yr),showing the presence of a“nighttime warming effect”,which possibly increases human discomfort,particularly during the warm pre-monsoon and humid monsoon season.Elevation-dependent warming(EDW)is predominant in mean daytime LST in two elevation zones,namely(i)0-3 km and(ii)above 4 km,in all seasons,except in post-monsoon.In contrast,EDW in mean nighttime LST is observed up to 3 km and above 6 km in the basin in all the seasons,excluding post-monsoon.The warming trend in LST may be attributed to rising atmospheric moisture,cloud cover,declining snow cover,and changes in land cover to non-vegetated land.However,further investigations will involve exploring the underlying factors contributing to the observed anomalies in nighttime LST,considering variables such as regional energy balance and atmospheric stability.This research contributes to an understanding of the thermal dynamics in the mountain basin,aiding in climate studies,land management,and the development of effective adaptation strategies in the IRB.

Mineralogy and element geochemistry of the Sohnari rocks of Early Eocene Laki Formation in the Southern Indus Basin,Pakistan:Implications for paleoclimate,paleoweathering and paleoredox conditions

The Sohnari Member of the Early Eocene Laki Formation is massively deposited in the Southern Indus Basin of Pakistan and is considered a potential source rock to generate hydrocarbons.However,the detailed paleoclimatic,paleoweathering,and depositional conditions of the Sohnari Member have not been studied earlier.This research mainly discusses the detailed mineralogical(bulk and clay)and elemental geochemistry of the Laki Formation from two outcrop sections(Jhimpir and Lakhra)in the Southern Indus Basin,Pakistan.The bulk minerals,including quartz(low),hematite,calcite,halite,gypsum,and clay minerals such as kaolinite,chlorite,smectite and illite have been discussed here.These results demonstrate the paleo-environment of studied area was arid with enhanced saline and weak to strong oxidizing depositional conditions.The chemical index of alteration(CIA)values in Jhimpir and Lakhra sections are in the ranges of 41.30-97.93 and 22.30-96.19,respectively,indicating that the Sohnari sediments experienced weak to intense chemical weathering in the source area.The interpretation of the A-CN-K ternary diagram is consistent with the clay mineral contents in the studied sediments,which is characterized by the predominance of kaolinite,gibbsite and chlorite,demonstrating the weak to strong weathering state under warm and humid climatic conditions.The chemical indices such as Sr/Ba,δU,V/Cr,Ni/Co,and Cu/Zn,U/Th and Ba/Ga show that Sohnari rocks of Early Eocene Laki Formation underwent strong evaporation,oxic water column with warm to humid and minor contact of cold climatic conditions.Based on our present data,it can be concluded that the sediments of Sohnari Member of Laki Formation from Jhimpir and Lakhra areas of Southern Indus Basin in Pakistan are related to Indio-Eurasian collision and came from the Indian shield rocks that were deposited in a brackish water body with a minor contact of the freshwater oxidizing paleo-environment depositional conditions.

A Glance on the Mineral Deposits and Stratigraphic Sequential Variations and Structures in Different Sections of Indus Basin (Pakistan): New Titanosaurian Sauropod Dinosaurs from the Latest Maastrichtian Vitakri Formation of Pakistan

Indus basin hosts many significant mineral deposits like gypsum and cement raw materials, gemstones, iron, coal, marble, dimension and construction stones, petroleum and water resources, world class pink salt and other many minerals in different regions which need further exploitation and development. The construction of new water dams in different regions are vital (for availability of cheap electricity), because of available barren and fertile lands and wastage of water as flood. Further the installation of more cement industries in different regions of Indus Basin especially in middle Indus (Sulaiman Range where gypsum, clays and limestones can be available via belt) can increase export to receive more foreign exchange and make local cement cheap for the sustainable development of Pakistan. 31 stratigraphic sequential sections at different sections of Indus basins are presented to know the variation and local stratigraphy. Further here three new titanosaur taxa are being described. Saraikimasoom is based on snout;Gspsaurus, (Maojandino), Nicksaurus and Khanazeem are based on cranial, vertebral and appendicular elements;Balochisaurus, Marisaurus, Pakisaurus, and 3 new genera and species Imrankhanhero zilefatmi, Qaikshaheen masoomniazi and Ikqaumishan smqureshi based on vertebral and appendicular elements;and Sulaimanisaurus and Khetranisaurus based on only caudal vertebrae. Although Pakistani Titanosaurians seem to be proliferated found from one horizon of Vitakri Formation just below the K-Pg boundary they have a wide range of diagnostic features and key elements among titanosaurs which can be used for comparison and phylogenetic analyses with broad updated character data set of titanosaurs.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and Their Contribution to Environmental Change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG （CO2, CH4 and N2O） emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest （4.126 Tg yr^-1） followed by N20 （0.265 Tg yr^-1） and CO2 （52.6 Tg yr^-1）. The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.

Recent snow cover variation in the Upper Indus Basin of Gilgit Baltistan, Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya

Mountainous basins like the Upper Indus Basin(UIB) of Gilgit Baltistan(GB) are dependent on seasonal snowmelt and glacier melt. Monitoring of the snow-covered area(SCA) is not only vital for the overall hydrology of the Indus basin but also important to the sustainable agriculture and hydropower system. The snow-covered area in the UIB of GB was investigated for changes over the last 18 years using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow product. The study area was divided into five elevation zones ranging from 877-8564 meters above sea level(m ASL). In contrast to the global cryosphere related studies, SCA in the UIB is slightly increasing. Elevation based SCA analysis also indicated that SCA is slightly increasing in each elevation zone. However, a significant amount of snow is concentrated in areas above 5000 m ASL. Due to the strong correlation between SCA and precipitation, the precipitation data also follow a similar trend. Analysis of the climatic data suggests a statistically significant increase in total monthly precipitation and relative humidity, a slight decrease in mean monthly temperature and a significant upward tendency in monthly solar irradiance data. All these trends in combination with the increasing trend in global precipitation, winter westerly disturbances and orographic precipitation are the important factors behind the slightly increasing SCA in the study area. Our results though constrained by short observation period mainly contribute to the understanding of advancing snow cover and glaciers in Hindukush Karakoram.

Tectonics induced switching of provenance during the Late Quaternary aggradation of the Indus River Valley, Ladakh, India

The Indus River flows through Ladakh, one of the driest and coldest places on earth, in a tectonically active domain. Fluvial, glaciofluvial, lacustrine and debris dominated sequences represent the Late Quaternary sedimentary record along the river course. Karakoram Fault, a major crustal scaled feature reported to be active during the Quaternary, is associated with the Indus River drainage. Linkages between a major, active fault and deposits formed during the activity period of the fault are explored using heavy mineral deduced provenance and Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL) chronology.Five deposits in a ~200 km long stretch of the Indus River have been examined for a ~80 ka period to decipher the climate linked aggradation history. Damming of the Indus River at ~79 ka and existence of the Spituk Lake for >30 ka is demonstrated. Using geology of the provenance in relation to the mineralogical attributes of the Quaternary deposits, the major drainage reorganization when the connection of the Tangtse Valley to the Indus was blocked, is inferred at ~73 ka. It is supported by the geologicalgeomorphological evidence. The study demonstrates the application of provenance linked mineralogy in terrestrial aggradation in a tectonically active region.

Morphological features of continental shelf margin:Examples from the Pakistan Offshore

This paper describes various morphological features of continental shelf and their present-day analogues both present in surface and subsurface data. Most of the examples are taken from Pakistan Offshore.Identification of subsurface features from wireline logs and seismic data is very significant for the application of facies identification in the field of petroleum geosciences, sequence stratigraphy and sedimentology, which is based on the analysis of various lithological characteristic of facies, as well as their geometrical distributions in the basin.

Geochemistry and Depositional Setting of Fort Munro Formation,Middle and Lower Indus Basins,Pakistan

Fort Munro Formation represents the products of the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) in the middle and lower Indus basins. The formation is exposed in the Rakhi Nala (Sulaiman Range), Bara Nala (Lakhi Range) and Naka Pabni (Southern Pab Range) areas. Major and trace elemental geochemistry and petrographic studies of the formation have been carried out to understand the facies trends in the middle and lower Indus basins. A high amount of acid-insoluble fraction, Ca/Mg and Mg vs. Ca/Sr ratio reveal that the formation was deposited in a shallow marine regressive environment. High amounts of clastic reflect abundant influx of terrigenous materials from the east (Indian craton) and west (Bibai volcanic). High Sr content indicates that aragonite was the precursor mineral, which was transformed into stable low-Mg calcite during diagenesis. Enrichment of Cu and Zn contents in the samples of the formation implies the influence of volcanic activity and that they were incorporated into the calcite lattice in the late phase.

Exploration prospects of oil and gas in the Northwestern part of the Offshore Indus Basin, Pakistan

Oil and gas resources are short in Pakistan and no commercially viable oil and gas sources have been yet discovered in its offshore areas up to now.In this study,the onshore-offshore stratigraphic correlation and seismic data interpretation were conducted to determine the oil and gas resource potential in the Offshore Indus Basin,Pakistan.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the results and previous data,it is considered that the Cretaceous may widely exist and three sets of source rocks may be developed in the Offshore Indus Basin.The presence of Miocene mudstones has been proven by drilling to be high-quality source rocks,while the Cretaceous and Paleocene–Eocene mudstones are potential source rocks.Tectonic-lithologic traps are developed in the northwestern part of the basin affected by the strike-slip faults along Murray Ridge.Furthermore,the Cretaceous and Paleocene–Eocene source rocks are thick and are slightly affected by volcanic activities.Therefore,it can be inferred that the northwestern part of Offshore Indus Basin enjoys good prospects of oil and gas resources.

Scarcity within Opulence:Water Management in the Karakoram Mountains Revisited

Water management in general and in the Indus Basin in particular is concerned with the energy-efficient transportation of hydrologically exploitable resources from the upper zone to climatically favourable areas where irrigation helps to supersede arid conditions for the cultivation of crops and watering of meadows.In other words:Human intervention sets the stage for the allocation of water from a wider catchment area in a smaller habitat where this resource is deficient.Emphasis on mountain irrigation practices is counteracted with developments in the forelands where different frame conditions prevail and peculiar development problems occur.In dealing with the importance of water from the mountain regions three dimensions have to be evaluated:1) natural factors and their validity for the environmental frame conditions and technological adaptation processes;2) social factors and their impact on culture,economy and equitability;3) institutional factors and their importance for sustainable growth and for the implementation of development projects.In the study of decentralized irrigation systems in high mountain regions of the Indus Basin a systems theoretical approach values the complexity of interrelationships between different systems elements.Human activities in arid mountain regions are restricted by limiting ecological factors and are characterized by certain utilization and adaptive strategies.

Vegetation-environment relationship in conifer dominating forests of the mountainous range of Indus Kohistan in northern Pakistan

Environmental variables play a crucial role in shaping vegetation structure,mainly in mountainous ecosystems.Different studies have attempted to identify the environment-vegetation relationship of Conifer Dominating Forests(CDF)worldwide.However,due to differences in local climate and soil composition,different environmental drivers can be found.By applying multivariate analysis techniques,this study investigated the vegetation-environment relationship of CDF of Indus Kohistan in northern Pakistan.Our results showed that CDF of Indus Kohistan are distributed in five distinct ecological groups,which are dominated by different trees and understory species.A total of 7 trees and 71 understory species were recorded from the sampling sites.Cedrus deodara was the leading species among four groups,having the highest importance value(IV),density and basal area.Group I was dominated by Pinus wallichiana with the second highest importance value,density and basal area.In addition,elevation,slope,maximum water holding capacity(MWHC),soil moisture(SM),total organic matter(TOM),sodium,phosphorus and nickel showed highly significant influence on composition and distribution pattern of Indus Kohistan vegetation.Therefore,this study shows a new evidence of vegetation-environment relationship,pointing out specific drivers of vegetation structure in CDF of Indus Kohistan region in northern Pakistan.

The Complex Phenomenon of Glaciers of Nubra Valley, Karakorum (Ladakh), India

The Nubra valley nestled in the Karakorum Mountains of Ladakh houses about 600 glaciers of various dimensions out of which 114 glaciers were monitored in the first phase of study. The study of 114 glaciers suggests that small-sized glaciers outnumber the large-sized glaciers. Almost 52.6% of the studied glaciers are of the size less than 5 km and 31.5% of the total glaciers are between the size of 5 and 10 km. The 84 glaciers out of the 114 glaciers have been monitored on shortterm basis between the time period 1989 and 2001 whereas 30 glaciers have been monitored on long-term basis between 1969 and 2001. The monitoring of the glaciers is based on the study of Survey of India topographical sheets of 1969 and satellite imageries of time series between 1989 and 2001. The monitoring of thirty glaciers shows that 17 glaciers have lost their area between 1969 and 2001. The loss in area is from 2150 km2 in 1969 to 2026 km2 in 2001. The study of eighty- four glaciers on short-term basis between 1989 and 2001 suggests that 26 glaciers have retreated, 25 glaciers have advanced and 33 glaciers show no change during the time period. The changes in the glaciers of Nubra valley are varied and complex.

Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin,Karakoram Range(Pakistan)using HBV hydrological model

Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin. The study aimed to understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System(IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration(R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation(R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during bothcalibration(R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation(R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model(GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROCESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitiveparameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21 th century. However, BCCCSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, Can ESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.

Application of Seismic Attributes for Delineation of Channel Geometries and Analysis of Various Aspects in Terms of Lithological and Structural Perspectives of Lower Goru Formation, Pakistan

Miano area is one of the distinct major hydrocarbon producing fields of the Lower Indus basin. Lower Goru is the reservoir strait in this area. The aim of the present study is to exploit the channels reservoirs and other stratigraphic features in such a terrain where there is always a challenge for the geoscientist to search and exploit the channeled reservoirs. To resolve this issue we have utilized attribute analysis on high resolution 3D-seismic data for the detailed comparative studies for the channels. There are many astonishing features that are identified in the current study, which could not otherwise be easily enhanced with the help of 2D Seismic Data. Seismic attributes such as coherency, frequency (are also appropriate for lithological discrimination), which are sensitive to the channel edges are applied for the channel delineation and their geometrical analysis. Spectral decomposition techniques are also applied for the delineation of channels and to appropriately select the best band for channels identification. Three types of channel geometries are recognized: 1) highly sinuous channel;2) narrow-broad meandering belts;3) moderate to high sinuous channel. NW-SE, N-W trending faults can be helpful to compartmentalize the reservoir. Instantaneous and dominant frequency are more beneficial for further field development based on Gamma Ray logs from nearby drilled wells and dimensional perspectives analysis of the channel reservoir.

Modelling the Spatial Distribution of Arsenic in Water and Its Correlation with Public Health, Central Indus Basin, Pakistan

Like India, Bangladesh and China, Pakistan also has some regions where concentration of Arsenic in water has crossed the WHO safe drinking water limits, 10 ppb. Presence of Arsenic in drinking water is causing serious human health issues for the local residents of Sindh and southern Punjab, which needs serious attention. The present study is focused on the spatial distribution of Arsenic in groundwater and its relationship with the major reported human diseases at settlement level of District Layyah. Data collection is done by taking water samples from hand pumps and health issues reported at the local health care centers adjoining to that sampling pump. The spatial distribution of Arsenic concentration in groundwater is done by using Inversion Distance Weight (IDW) technique. Arsenic Risk Index (ARI) is developed based of WHO health standards, and then used to divide study area into two Arsenic Risk Zones as no risk and high risk with As values less or equal to 10 ng·ml-1 and greater than 10 ng·ml-1, respectively . In the final step these zones were correlated with the diseases at village level. The results show that, Arsenic is high near the Indus River and it decreases in central and eastern parts towards Chenab River. Same trend of Indo-Chenab Arsenic gradient is followed by skin diseases among the people especially, in tehsil Layyah and tehsil Koror. It is concluded that high Arsenic amount in water and skin diseases are highly dependent on the recharge from Indus River.