Impact of an official accountability audit on industrial structure adjustment:a case study of environmental regulation in China

As a unique environmental regulation in China,the official accountability audit was piloted in 2014.With a focus on prioritizing the ecological environment,officials in pilot districts have implemented economic construction,adjusted industrial structures,and promoted coordinated development between the economy and environment.The effects of implementation have garnered widespread attention from society.However,there is limited research on the impact of an accountability audit on industrial structure adjustments.Using the“Accountability Audit of Officials for Natural Resource Assets(Trial)”released in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment,this study collected panel data from 279 cities between 2013 and 2017.It then empirically analyzed the impact mechanism and effects of the accountability audit on industrial structure adjustment using the Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences model.The research findings indicate that the accountability audit directly impacted industrial structure adjustment,promoting the upgrading of the primary industry to the secondary industry and restricting the development of the tertiary industry.In addition,the audit is beneficial for enterprise entry,but not conducive to technological innovation,and has no significant impact on foreign direct investment.This conclusion fills a gap in the existing research and provides valuable insights for policymakers.

Technological anxiety:Analysis of the impact of industrial intelligence on employment in China

Employment is the greatest livelihood.Whether the impact of industrial robotics technology materialized in machines on employment in the digital age is an“icing on the cake”or“adding fuel to the fire”needs further study.This study aims to analyze the impact of the installation and application of industrial robots on labor demand in the context of the Chinese economy.First,from the theoretical logic and the economic development law,this study gives the prior judgment and research hypothesis that industrial intelligence will increase jobs.Then,based on the panel data of 269 cities in China from 2006 to 2021,we use the two-way fixed effect model,dynamic threshold model,and two-stage intermediary effect model.The objective is to investigate the impact of industrial intelligence on enterprise labor demand and its path mechanism.Results show that the overall effect of industrial intelligence on the labor force with the installation density index of industrial robots as the proxy variable is the“creation effect”.In other words,advanced digital technology has created additional jobs,and the overall supply of employment in the labor market has increased.The conclusion is still valid after the endogeneity identification and robustness test.In addition,the positive effect has a nonlinear effect on the network scale.When the installation density of industrial robots exceeds a particular threshold value,the division of labor continues to deepen under the combined action of the production efficiency and compensation effects,which will cause enterprises to increase labor demand further.Further research showed that industrial intelligence can increase employment by promoting synergistic agglomeration and improving labor price distortions.This study concludes that in the digital China era,the introduction and installation of industrial robots by enterprises can affect the optimal allocation of the labor market.This phenomenon has essential experience and reference significance for guiding industrial digitalization and intelligent transformation and promoting the high-quality development of people’s livelihood.

Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China

Water is a key restricting factor of the economic development and eco-environmental protection in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Although water supplies are short, the water utilization structure and the corresponding industrial structure are unbalanced. We constructed a System Dynamic Model for mutual optimization based on the mechanism of their interaction. This model is applied to the Heihe River Basin where the share of limited water resources among ecosystem, production and human living is optimized. Results show that, by mutual optimization, the water utilization structure and the industrial structures fit in with each other. And the relationships between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin can be harmonized. Mutual benefits of ecology, society and economy can be reached, and a sustainable ecology-production-living system can be obtained. This study gives a new insight and method for the sustainable utilization of water resources in arid inland river basins.

A Study on the Interaction among Financial Development,Industrial Adjustment and Urbanization

This paper attempts to study the interactive relationship among financial development,industrial structure adjustment and urbanization in China.Based on the data from 1978 to 2018,this paper establishes a VAR model for empirical analysis.The results show that after the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of the model,industrial structure adjustment and urbanization have a positive impact on financial development in the long run.Financial development and industrial structure adjustment do not play a positive role in the process of urbanization,and there is still room for further development.It is suggested that the state should strengthen the financial support for urbanization so that the two can develop in coordination.At the same time,we should adhere to the simultaneous development of industrial structure adjustment and urbanization to ensure the simultaneous development of financial scale and efficiency.

The optimization method of industrial robot arm structure based on green manufacturing technology

In order to realize the optimal design of the industrial robot arm structure,an optimization method of the industrial robot arm structure based on green manufacturing technology is proposed.The stability of arm structure parameter acquisition can be controlled.The quantitative adjustment model of structural optimization parameters is constructed.The differential fusion control of the arm structure is realized.This paper analyzes the structure parameter law of the robot arm.We use dynamic parameter prediction and output torque parameter compensation method to control the arm structure.According to the adaptive iterative processing results,the arm structure parameter identification is realized.According to the identification results,the cutting parameter optimization method is adopted for the analytical control of the arm structure,and finally the optimized design of the industrial robot arm structure is realized through the green manufacturing technology.The simulation test results show that for the accuracy of the industrial robot arm structure design,this method is better,the output stability is higher,and the arm motion trajectory has a low deviation from the actual motion trajectory,which improves the optimization control and design capabilities of the industrial robot arm structure.

大学新生学习适应、社交适应、情绪适应间的动态联系:一项追踪研究

从高中到大学的学校过渡是典型的发展转折点。大学新生既要适应学业环境、社交网络的改变,还要适应自我发展中身心转变。适应心理各维度的发展轨迹各不相同,但同时在发展中也会以一种有意义的方式相互联系。本研究采用密集追踪设计,招募了426名大学新生在入学后第一学期进行连续19周的问卷测查,考察学习适应、社交适应和情绪适应的时间趋势以及三者之间的相互关系。动态结构方程结果表明:(1)大学新生的社交适应状况的动态变化相对稳定,而学习适应和情绪适应状况随时间呈下降趋势;(2)新生学习适应每周的波动变化独立于情绪适应和社交适应;(3)新生社交适应、情绪适应之间存在交叉滞后关联。了解新生适应心理的发展规律,将有助于学生的自我发展和学校开展有针对性的适应教育。

京津冀科技创新投入对产业结构高级化的影响

京津冀科技创新对于推动京津冀地区产业结构高级化提供了有力支撑。通过明确京津冀科技创新投入对产业结构高级化影响的被解释变量、解释变量和控制变量,确定京津冀科技创新投入对产业结构高级化影响的指标。构建京津冀科技创新投入对产业结构高级化影响的静态回归模型和动态回归模型,利用2009—2020年面板数据,深入开展京津冀地区科技创新投入对产业结构高级化影响的对比研究。结果表明:京津冀整体的科技创新投入对其产业结构高级化的影响显著,科技创新投入增加能显著促进产业结构高级化;京津冀科技创新投入对产业结构高级化的影响程度存在显著的空间差异,经济发展水平显著影响地区科技创新投入对产业结构高级化的促进力度;考虑控制变量,区域对外开放水平显著抑制地区产业结构高级化,人力资本水平与政府支持力度对地区产业结构高级化影响存在显著空间差异。根据研究结果,提出京津冀科技创新推动产业结构高级化的对策建议。

数字普惠金融赋能县域产业结构转型升级的动力机制——基于PLS-SEM模型分析

基于偏最小二乘法结构方程模型(PLS-SEM),运用河南省县域2014—2020年平衡面板数据研究数字普惠金融驱动河南省县域产业转型升级的机制与实证效果,结果表明:数字普惠金融能够推动河南省县域产业结构的转型升级;数字普惠金融主要通过经济发展、生态环境、社会共享三个方面共同推动河南省县域产业结构转型升级;从发展潜力方面看,数字普惠金融对产业结构升级有一定负相关性,可能的原因是河南省县域数字平台不够完善、数字信息技术落后,且大多以轻工业、农业为主,导致数字普惠金融的正向融入性存在延迟。必须持续推动数字普惠金融的产业融入性、夯实数字普惠金融服务实体经济的功能性,提高河南省县域产业经济韧性。

薄壁四点接触球轴承-腕部关节系统接触动力学分析

在机器人实际工况中,针对含有薄壁四点接触球轴承的机器人腕部关节系统的运动稳定性问题,对腕部系统模型进行了简化设计和仿真研究。在考虑薄壁结构的弹性变形和动态接触作用耦合影响的基础上,建立了刚柔耦合工业机器人腕部关节系统模型,分析了不同受载工况和正反转驱动下的变形规律和动态特性。首先,基于多体动力学和Hertz接触理论,设计了包含薄壁四点接触球轴承和中空轴及基座的腕部关节系统刚柔耦合接触动力学仿真模型;然后,考虑薄壁中空轴、基座、轴承套圈和保持架的结构弹性变形、钢球和套圈滚道、保持架的动态接触作用,研究了机器人腕部关节系统两种实际工况对保持架和钢球角速度、保持架和薄壁基座振动位移、钢球与套圈的动态接触力的影响;最后,计算分析了两种工况下腕部关节系统的动态载荷规律和振动响应特性。研究结果表明:在相对较大的径向载荷作用下,保持架和钢球会出现打滑现象,速度呈现周期波动,保持架和基座具有更好的运动稳定性,其薄壁轴承内部载荷降低,主副接触对均承担联合载荷,轴承内部载荷稳定性也更好。该仿真模型及结果可以为薄壁腕部关节系统的动力学分析与设计提供参考。

广东省人力资本与产业结构空间优化互动的实证研究

本文选用广东省21个城市2013—2022年面板数据,利用空间计量模型对广东省人力资本水平与产业结构之间的空间关联进行分析。结果显示:考察期人力资本水平和政府调控并不利于广东省产业结构水平优化,而经济开放度、基础设施和金融支持则呈现出显著正向影响。最后,本文提出了针对不利因素与有利因素不同影响的政策建议。一方面,强调差异化教育、行业导向培养、灵活用工等措施,以促进更为平衡和可持续的产业结构升级;另一方面,提出整合产业政策、拓展合作和强化基础设施建设以最大程度地发挥各项因素的积极作用,实现产业结构的升级和优化。这些发现和建议为深入理解广东省人力资本与产业结构互动提供了有力的理论支撑和政策指导。

Development of a distribution management system in refinery industry

Developing an information system for managing the product distribution in a refinery demands sophisticated design solutions. First, organization models are created to describe the structural relationships among employees and the ways in which they will use the information system. Second, function models are created to hierarchically describe how sales, transports, deliveries and vehicles are managed. Thirdly, an information model is built to represent the data entities and their dynamic interactions. Based on the system design, a distribution management system is developed and implemented in a refinery, which has considerably increased the distribution management efficiency and effectiveness.

中国农村三产融合对农民收入的影响研究——基于中介效应视角

加快推进农村三产融合发展对于促进农村产业繁荣、提高农民收入、实现共同富裕具有重要战略意义。基于中国31个省份2000~2020年的面板数据,构建农村三产融合发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法和耦合协调度法综合测算农村三产融合发展指数,构建随机效应模型、中介效应模型和动态面板模型,对农村三产融合的农民增收效应进行实证研究。研究表明,2000~2020年间,我国农村三产融合发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,不同省份的农村三产融合发展水平有不小的差异;农业劳动生产率在农村三产融合影响农民收入过程中起到中介效应;农村三产融合能够显著促进农民收入增长,且主要通过促进农户家庭的经营性收入、工资性收入和转移性收入的增长实现。因此,本研究能够为政府决策部门提供丰富的经验证据,具有一定的实践价值。

基于动态偏离—份额空间拓展模型的产业结构与竞争力评价研究:以山东省为例

传统动态偏离—份额模型假定国家影响区域而区域之间不相互影响,空间模型考虑了区域之间的相互作用,但假设空间权重不随时间变化。文章综合考虑了“地理距离”和“经济距离”两类因素,构造了基于可变空间权重系数的偏离—份额空间拓展模型,对山东省2008—2016年第一、二、三产业的产业结构和竞争力进行实证分析,并将测算结果与传统动态偏离—份额模型进行对比。研究表明:无论是第一、第二还是第三产业,空间拓展模型与传统模型测算结果均存在着显著的差异,说明空间拓展模型考虑了空间相关性,揭示了邻近区域对山东省的空间影响。与邻近区域相比,山东省第一、第二、第三产业整体上均具有一定的结构优势和竞争优势,其中第二产业优势最强,第一产业优势最弱。最后,根据实证结论提出“提高第一产业效率,推进农业现代化;优化第二产业结构,促进产业转型升级;加快第三产业发展,抢占价值链高端”的政策建议。

环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长——基于西北地区地级城市的实证研究

本文应用西北地区31个地级市2010—2019年的面板数据,在测算环境规制强度及产业结构优化水平的基础上,利用面板门槛回归模型分析西北地区环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明:(1)西北地区环境规制强度与产业结构优化指数在整体上均呈现出先下降后上升的趋势;(2)环境规制、产业结构优化与经济增长之间并非线性关系,它们与经济增长均存在较为显著的单门槛效应;(3)当环境规制作为门槛变量时,产业结构优化水平对经济增长的影响逐渐由负向作用转为正向作用,而当产业结构优化作为门槛变量时,环境规制对经济增长的促进作用呈现出加速上升的趋势。

“水-能-碳”约束下河北省可持续发展能力评价

基于投入产出理论和可持续发展理论,构建河北省“水-能-碳”多目标动态最优化模型,评估分析河北省2017—2030年经济发展状况,模拟分析河北省各区域可持续发展模式并对其可持续发展水平进行评价。结果表明:(1)初始方案基准情景表明,河北省资源消耗及碳排放量涨幅较大;(2)改进情景1和改进情景2的单一政策仿真结果表明,产业结构调整对资源消耗和碳减排影响较显著;(3)强化和综合情景下的组合政策仿真情景表明,强化情景更符合实际情况;(4)从河北省各区域可持续发展能力来看,各区域可持续发展能力存在不平衡性。最后,基于河北省可持续发展水平现状,从生产和生态角度提出相应提升策略。

绿色税收、产业结构升级与长三角地区碳排放——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证分析

基于长三角地区27个城市2005—2019年的面板数据构建动态空间杜宾模型,探究绿色税收、产业结构升级对碳排放的影响。在此基础上,采用有调节的中介效应模型来揭示技术创新在三者之间的作用。结果表明:(1)长三角地区碳排放呈现出显著的空间正相关性和空间溢出效应;(2)绿色税收对碳排放的影响是先抑制后促进的“U”型非线性关系,产业结构升级对碳排放有显著的抑制作用;(3)绿色税收通过产业结构升级对碳排放有间接的抑制作用;(4)在绿色税收对产业结构升级以及产业结构升级对碳排放的影响关系中,技术创新均起到了显著的调节作用。

长三角城市群PM_(2.5)污染时空特征及其优化路径——基于产业转型和技术升级的视角

准确把握PM_(2.5)污染的时空特征及其驱动效应,有助于推动长三角城市群实现良性、可持续发展。基于2007~2017年的市级面板数据集,文章使用动态空间面板(DSP)模型对长三角城市群PM_(2.5)污染的时空特征及其产业和技术的驱动效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:地区PM_(2.5)污染存在显著的时序动态演变特征和空间相关性,区域内部PM_(2.5)污染的空间异质性分布较为稳定;尽管产业结构升级和技术进步均有利于缓解PM_(2.5)污染,但技术进步发挥了更重要的作用;产业结构升级和技术进步的联合效应可以显著抑制PM_(2.5)污染。为持续提高长三角城市群的空气质量,应建立区域差异化的治理和联合防控机制。地区政府应促进产业结构和能源结构不断升级,通过自主开发和技术引进的手段发挥技术进步对环境治理的积极效应。

数字经济对产业结构转型升级的影响研究

本文采用2011-2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型探究数字经济对产业结构转型升级的空间效应及地区异质性影响。通过研究发现,数字经济显著促进产业结构转型升级;数字经济对产业结构合理化的影响效应大于数字经济对产业结构高级化的影响效应;数字经济对产业结构转型升级影响的边际效用已从东部地区转移至西部地区,因此当前大力发展西部地区数字经济水平可以显著促进我国产业结构转型升级。结合以上研究结论,本文最终为政府部门以数字经济推动各地区产业结构转型升级提供了因势利导的路径选择。

产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应研究

加快产业结构调整和技术进步对中国雾霾减排至关重要。基于2003-2016年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,采用动态空间面板模型实证分析了产业结构调整与技术进步对雾霾减排的影响效应。研究结论表明:从整体层面看,在产业结构调整的雾霾减排效应当中,产业结构高级化的雾霾减排效应较强,而产业结构合理化对雾霾减排的促进作用相对较弱。在技术进步的雾霾减排效应当中,技术效率改善的雾霾减排效应较强,而科技进步对雾霾减排的促进作用相对很弱。同时,这些雾霾减排效应还受到城市人口规模和经济发展阶段的约束。特大城市和大城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于产业结构高级化发展,而中等城市和小城市可以从技术效率改善中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。工业化初期阶段城市的雾霾减排更多地受益于技术效率改善,而工业化中期阶段城市和后期阶段城市可以分别从产业结构高级化和合理化发展中获得更强的雾霾减排效应。

中国经济结构性减速时代的来临

本文从产业结构调整视角,研判中国经济结构性减速时代的来临并预测中国未来20年的经济增长速度。对产业结构合理化和高度化的传统测度指标进行完善,基于1978—2012年省域数据,利用非参数面板模型均值估计和逐点估计方法,实证检验了中国产业结构调整与经济增长的关系。结果显示,中国产业结构合理化和高度化都显著促进了区域经济增长,但无论采用合理化还是高度化指标,结构调整效应的产出弹性均随产业结构的调整、资本积累和劳动投入的增加而呈现"倒U型"动态演进过程。当前,中国整体正处在"倒U型"曲线的拐点,面临从"结构性加速"向"结构性减速"转变的困境。经济增速的预测表明,中国经济增长将在2013—2017年进入"7时代",在2018—2022年进入"5时代"甚至"4"时代。