Industrial Structure and Competitive Strength of 31 Provincial Districts——A GIS-based Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

By using the dynamic shift-share analysis, the industrial structure and competitive strength of 31 provincial districts except Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are studied by taking the GDP of the three industries as the research entrance and the whole nation as the reference district. The industrial structure and competitive strength of each provincial district is measured. Through the analysis of pertinence, the correlation degree of industrial structure and industrial competitive strength to economic growth is analyzed. The results show that the industrial competitive strength is closely related to the economic growth of the 31 provincial districts, but the contribution made by the industrial structure to economic growth is insufficient and the effect of industrial structure does not match with that of industrial competitive strength. According to industrial competitiveness and industrial structure effect, 31 provincial districts of the whole nation are divided into 4 types and the relevant countermeasures of the four types are put forward.

The Fishery Industrial Structure in China Based on the Application of Shift-Share Analysis

Taking sixteen main fishery production regions as the study objects,this paper is to examine the fishery industrial structure and investigate the correlation between the economic growth of the fishery industry and the fishery industrial structure during the period 1997-2013 by the shift-share analysis. The study results show that( i) four types of regional industrial structure exist in the fishery industry in China;( ii)all the three sectors-fishing production,fish processing( manufacturing) and fish marketing( distribution),have emerged with large potential for promoting the national fishery industry growth,especially for the latter two;( iii) the factors of industry-mix and competitive position have significantly different impacts on the growth of fishery industry in different main fishery production regions. This study is one of the comprehensive studies on the status of regional fishery industrial structure,and the competitiveness of regional fishery industry in China.

Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Dingxi City Based on Shift-Share Method and Location Quotient Analysis

According to the statistical data in the years 2004-2008, both Shift-Share Analysis and Location Quotient Analysis are used to compare the economic development status of counties (districts) in Dingxi City in the years 2004 and 2008. Advantages and disadvantages of industrial structure and competitiveness are analyzed, as well as the impacts of existing industrial structure on economic growth. Development direction and development focus of primary, secondary and tertiary industries are found out. Countermeasures for accelerating the economic development of counties (districts) in Dingxi City are put forward, such as increasing the inputs in characteristic agriculture, promoting the development of primary industry, speeding up the construction of large and medium industrial enterprises, enhancing the development of secondary industry, strengthening comprehensive environmental improvement in tourist area, and actively developing tertiary industry.

长三角城市群经济韧性测度与分析——基于Shift-Share的经济韧性分解

以长三角城市群27个城市为研究对象,测度2008—2010年抵抗期和2010—2019年恢复期城市群经济韧性水平,并进一步运用Shift-Share分解方法探索长三角城市群经济韧性内在影响机制。研究显示:抵抗期和恢复期中长三角城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.309和0.301,均强于全国层面经济韧性水平;Shift-Share分解后发现竞争力分量对各城市经济韧性水平提升起到决定性作用,抵抗期阶段主要由第二、三产业共同作用影响经济韧性水平;恢复期阶段则以第二产业竞争力为主导力量,同时以第三产业竞争力作为辅助力量。通过实证探究长三角城市群经济一体化发展的规律和特点,为增强中国经济韧性提出相关建议,助力中国经济高质量发展。

Quantitative Analysis of Contribution of Industrial Structure to Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

The industrial structure in Jiangsu Province realizes the transformation from "secondary industry-primary industry-tertiary industry" to "tertiary industry-secondary industry-primary industry". However, the effectiveness of this model of industry-dominate industrial structure and the role of industrial structure pattern in promoting regional economic growth are yet to be researched. By using shift-share analysis method, we judge the importance of factors of industrial structure in regional economic growth of Jiangsu Province, and point out that factors of industrial structure are not the dominant forces in economic growth of Jiangsu Province; among the contributions of three industries to economic growth of Jiangsu Province, the contribution of the primary industry is greatest, followed by the contribution of secondary industry and the contribution of tertiary industry successively; real estate industry makes the greatest contribution to economic growth of Jiangsu Province; financial industry and construction industry make relatively small contributions; the potential of industry needs to be further developed. In the process of economic development of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure is yet to be further optimized so as to give play to the role of industry in promoting the development of Jiangsu Province.

基于改进Theil指数和Shift-Share模型的2012—2021年中国产业偏离分析

文章首先通过对现有文献的梳理和分析,发现针对产业偏离的测算,传统的产业偏离度E系数、Theil指数及Shift-Share模型均存在一定的缺陷,E系数和Theil指数的缺陷主要体现在计算原理方面,而Shift-Share模型的缺陷主要表现在参照系选择的合理性和数据采集的可行性方面。然后,基于现有模型的基本原理,提出了更为合理和更具可操作性的产业偏离测算方法,再采用实证研究的方法,根据2012—2021年的数据,对中国的产业偏离情况进行具体分析,得出尽管中国存在产业偏离,但产业偏离度在逐渐减小。最后,基于修正模型的计算结果,并结合当前的国际国内环境,提出如下政策建议:1)第一产业要依靠创新和科技引领,促进农村劳动力在城乡间有序转移,实现农业生产的规模化和现代化;2)第二产业要加快产业的升级换代,建立和保持独立、自主、完整的工业体系,加大在基础研究方面的投入,尽早突破美西方的技术封锁;3)第三产业的发展重点应该在金融和科教两个方面,要进一步提升香港地区、上海和北京等城市的世界金融中心地位,依靠金融创新来规避现行国际金融体系的不利约束和影响,同时要将科教兴国战略落到实处,努力探索适合中国国情的从小学到大学各阶段的教育模式。

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Analysis on Features of Agricultural Structure Change and Agricultural Competitiveness in Hubei Province

The output data of crop farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in the Hubei Statistical Yearbook-2009 is used to analyze the features of agricultural structure change in Hubei Province since 1983;according to the relevant data in Hubei Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook in 2005 and 2009,and adopting the shift-share analysis model,the difference in agricultural economic growth between Hubei and other provinces in Central China as well as the difference among the 17 regions of Hubei Province during 2004-2008 are analyzed.Results show that,the agriculture in Hubei Province shows significant overall advantages in central China and has stronger competitiveness,but its crop farming and fishery structure are not quite reasonable,and the competitive advantages of its fishery and agricultural services still need to be strengthened;the agricultural structure within Hubei Province sees an obvious regional differences,viewed from the total deviation,Huanggang,Jingmen and Yichang enjoy competitive edge in the whole province,from the viewpoint of industrial sectors,Huanggang is the most competitive in its planting,forestry and animal husbandry,while Jingmen is the strongest in fishery and Xiangfan has a competitive edge over others in its agricultural services.Based on those results above,it is proposed that Hubei Province should fully recognize its natural conditions,resources endowment and current differences in the economic status of each places,work out measures to suit local conditions,take full use of its advantages,extend its production chain and go on the development road with regional characteristics.

Shift-Share区域经济评价模型及其扩展研究

讨论了Shift-Share模型的经济思想,指出现有研究反映经济信息的片面性。对Shift-Share方法进行了扩展,提出了产业结构效率新概念,并诠释了其经济思想,构造了更具经济评价和政策意义的区域产业结构分析统计模型,用具体案例介绍了模型使用方法。

基于Shift-share分析法的青岛市工业经济结构研究

该文运用Shift-share分析法,以青岛全市为参照系,对青岛市所属9个研究单元分部门工业结构、工业总体发展进行了分析,并引入部门弹性系数、结构效果系数与区域竞争效果系数等对各单元工业所处地位和竞争力进行了评价.研究表明,市内四区与崂山工业增长慢于全市,工业结构与竞争力较差,区域工业所处地位下降,黄岛与城阳等市郊区域最具增长优势,工业结构较好,竞争力较强,区域工业地位快速上升,最后提出了各单元主导产业选择的建议.

上海三次产业结构变迁的经济增长效应分析——基于Shift-Share分析方法

借助Shift-Share方法分解1978-2012年上海经济增长的劳动生产率变动得出:整体经济和第三产业仅存在"结构奖赏"效应,但贡献度有限;第一和第二产业仅存在"结构惩罚"效应;整体经济和三次产业结构转换的经济增长效应已日渐缩小。但这并不表明市场化改革红利已消失,因为生产要素的"配置效率落差"和"反效率配置"现象还将长期存在,即上海还存在推进市场化改革来提升生产效率的潜力。

Shift-share方法在河南省经济结构分析中的应用

介绍了Shift share方法的基本原理和数学模型,根据我国实际设计提出了这种方法的计算过程和分析技巧,发展和拓宽了Shift share方法的分析范围和深度.并以河南省为例,探索了Shift share方法在我国城市与区域产业结构分析及主导产业发展方面的应用价值和前景.

湖北省工业结构调整与定位——基于shift-share方法的分析

文章运用Shift-Share分析法,将2004-2008年间湖北省工业整体和37个工业行业的增长率分解为区域增长份额、产业结构偏离份额和区位偏离份额三部分。通过对测算结果的分析,对工业内部行业进行了明确定位,把37个行业分为6大类,并依次提出了工业结构调整的相关建议。

Shift-share方法在泉州市产业结构调整中的应用

通过了解“九五”期间,泉州市产业结构的变化状况。采用定量分析的方法,探讨了产业结构变动的原因及其对地方经济增长的影响。并在此基础上,提出了泉州市优化产业结构、发展主导产业的战略性调整策略。

基于Shift-share方法的安徽省产业发展分析

Shift-share方法在国外是一种区域经济和产业结构分析中被广泛使用的方法,具有较强的综合性和动态性。本文以1998至2002年数据为基础,运用偏离份额技术,对安徽省三次产业结构以及安徽省所辖地级市产业结构的现状和竞争能力进行分析。结果表明,安徽省三次产业发展速度基本上和全国发展速度持平,第三产业总体发展情况良好并且对经济的贡献最大,但是大多数城市第二产业竞争力较弱,处于衰退状态,严重影响了安徽省的经济发展。

基于Shift-Share分析法的海南旅游产业结构优化研究

目前,海南省旅游业总体规模不断扩大,且创汇效益显著,但其进一步的发展很大程度上取决于其产业结构的合理性。从Shift-Share方法为视角,分析了海南省旅游产业部门的现状。结果表明:餐饮、购物、游览部门结构效益相对较优,长途交通、娱乐、市内交通和邮电通讯部门不具有区域竞争力,住宿和其他服务结构效益不佳,可从优、劣势部门各自的层面采取对应措施,同时还应加强各部门之间的协作发展,以进一步促进旅游产业结构优化。

基于shift-share方法的江苏省生产性服务业产业结构分析

该文运用shift-share方法的基本原理与数学模型,以全国生产性服务业发展情况为参照系,对江苏省生产性服务业的特点及6个产业部门的份额、结构及竞争力进行了分析。研究表明,交通运输、仓储和邮政业、金融业、房地产业、科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业生产率和份额同步增长,竞争力较强;信息传输、计算机服务和软件业虽然发展基础较好,但不具有竞争优势,落后于全国的平均水平;租赁和商务服务业基础较弱,但具有较快的发展速度。本研究希望能够对江苏省生产性服务业的发展提供参考和借鉴。

珠江三角洲产业结构的Shift-Share方法分析

采用偏离份额分析方法(shift-share method)的数学模型,对珠江三角洲9市1998- 2004年的经济发展状况进行了分析和比较,分析产业结构与竞争力方面的优势、劣势以及现有产业结构对经济增长的影响,并针对出现的4种不同发展类型地区的实际情况,提出区域经济产业结构调整战略措施．

The Industrial Structure Efficiency of Gansu Province since the Start of Reform and Opening up

According to the time series data of relevant industries from 1978 to 2008 in Gansu Province,the industrial structure efficiency of Gansu Province is studied from different perspectives based on the overview of the analysis methods and by applying the analysis models including comparative labor productivity,deviation degree of industrial structure and shift-share analysis model.The results show that,in Gansu Province,the comparative labor productivity is low in the primary and tertiary industries,while that in the second industry is high;the deviation coefficient of industrial structure is big and the industrial structure and employment structure is extremely asymmetric;the proportion of sunrise industry is large and has great contribution to economic growth.However,the competiveness of the three main industries is relatively weak and need further improvement.

基于偏离-份额分析法的陕西林下经济优势产业选择分析

以2018—2021年的陕西省林下经济产业为研究对象,采取偏离-份额分析法对其进行分析,结果表明:陕西省林下经济产业除陆生野生动物繁育与利用业以外,其他产业均为增长型产业。其中水果、坚果、含油果和香料作物种植与采集、食品药材、食品种植、花卉及其他观赏植物种植、非木质林产品加工制造业基础好,区位竞争优势较大,未来发展潜力大,可作为优势产业首选对象。茶及其他饮料作物的种植与采集、林产品采集、林业旅游与休闲服务、林业生态服务和林业生产服务产业基础差,且不具备明显的区位竞争和产业优势,但具有明显的结构优势,可作为第二发展对象,同时对林下经济优势产业提出发展建议。