Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.

Regulating and Controlling the Rising Prices of Geographical Indication Products in Inflation——taking Geographical Indication Products from Chongqing as an Example

Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geographical indication goods have their own necessities.From the perspective of the products,they are equipped with appreciation potential due to the cultural pe culiarities.From the historical standpoint,their prices have not been high as well as other agricultural products.Realistically,the increase in their prices results from the costs of labors and raw materials.Therefore,the prices of geographical indication products rise to catch up.Not only are their prices at a reasonable level,but also they are beneficial to increase peasants'income.In con clusion,it is necessary that the strategies which are different from those of other products be adopted to regulate and control the prices of geographical indication products.

Fuzzy Inventory Model with Variable Production and Selling Price Dependent Demand under Inflation for Deteriorating Items

The main purpose of this paper is to develop an inventory model under fuzzy approach by considering the effect of inflation and time value of money, to determine the optimal time period for inventory cycle and minimum total average costs. The model is integrated production inventory model developed where;the Demand has a direct linear impact on production rate. The model can be divided into four stages. In the first two stages with original production rate and subsequent change in production rate, inventory level rises. Third stage is time after the accumulation of inventory and before the deterioration starts, where demand which selling price dependent is depreciating the inventory level, while in the fourth stage deterioration occurs, which is considered to follow two parameter Weibull distribution. The back-order is not considered. Hexagonal fuzzy numbers are used to derive optimum solution and defuzzification by graded mean integration representation method. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the applicability of the purposed model and sensitivity analysis is carried out to reveal the impact of change in parameter values.

Research on the Factors of Asset Prices in the Inflation Mechanism

With the acceleration of economic globalization and financial liberalization,factors of asset prices such as stock,bond and real estate and so on become important economic variables that affect inflation. After a brief review of the latest literature,this paper analyzes the specific conduction mechanism from different aspects of consumption,investment,credit and exchange rate channels in which asset prices affect inflation. Then,this paper analyzes the monthly data from January,2002 to December,2013 with the PLS method(partial least squares regression method)and discusses whether a structural change has taken place in the inflation mechanism during this period. Finally,policy recommendations are provided.

经济学中Inflation词义的变化及其翻译

在相关的经济学文献中,英文单词"inflation"常常被翻译为"通货膨胀"一词。虽然有一定的合理性,但是,实际上也是不准确的;当前,"inflation"一词已经发生了词义转移,摆脱了与货币发行量的关系,再将其翻译为"通货膨胀",就会影响经济理论的研究。文章将说明经济学中英文单词"inflation"词义的变化与当前合适的译法。

Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

A Precis of Inflation

Inflation may be described as a condition of substantially rising prices butthe measuring devices are inexact and questionable. When such conditions ex-ist,people lose purchasing power by saving money.Higher rate of inflationwould price a nation out of world markets and workers would lose jobs as thelogical consequence.Inflation is disruptive to people under such uncertainty.

Inflation Looms Over Singapore

Singapore is facing its highest inflation in nearly a decade In a toufu pudding eatery in Bukit Gombak in west Singapore, a conspicuously posted notice apologizes to customers for a price hike due to rising costs.

Consumer inflation to slow in 2020

China's consumer inflation is set to grow at a slower pace for the rest of this year,with the overall price operation level remaining in a reasonable range,the country's top economic regulator announced recently.

The Great Turning of Global Inflation

Global inflation has decreased steadily over the past few Jdecades.It was noted that inflation has remained low since the Great Crisis of 2008.Inflation risk has ceased to be priced bythe major central banks,and hasbeen replaced by reflation as a new policy objective.

Impact of delay in payment,shortage and inflation on an EOQ model with bivariate demand

The major challenge of inventory decision makers is to determine an inventory optimization strategy that ensures the right balance between keeping abundant on hand inventory to meet the demand of the customers and optimizing costs related to holding inventory.This article analyzes on providing a general deterministic inventory model in which the rate of demand is determined by price and time over the ordering cycle time.The traditional assumption of zero ending invento ry level is relaxed to a non-zero ending inventory level.Shortages are allowed which are partially backlogged.We develop models with partial backlogging and without backlogging.The aim is to maximize the profit per unit time,assuming delay in payment and inflation.An algorithm is proposed to find the optimal selling price,optimal stockout period,optimal replenishment cycle time and the optimal ending inventory level.All the possible special cases of these two models are also discussed.The numerical examples,graphical representation,and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the practical application of the proposed model.

Valuation of Hybrid Pension Scheme Liabilities under Inflation

In recent years,it is of great interest to evaluate the level of liabilities of the hybrid pension system as the mixed pension schemes are favored by various countries around the world.This paper further improves the hybrid pension liability assessment method proposed by Broeders et al by accounting for inflation risk and assuming that inflation risk is measured by a price index that follows geometric Brownian motion.A simulation-based pricing framework is then introduced to assess the hybrid pension liability.The results show that the introduction of inflation risk increases the total outstanding liability of hybrid pensions.Furthermore,inflation is negatively correlated with the total outstanding liability of the hybrid pension scheme,while inflation volatility is positively correlated with it.

The Relationship between the Ethiopian Economic Growth and the Decrease in Purchasing Power of Consumers

There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).

An Analysis of China's Overall Price Trend During the 12th Five-year Plan Period and Suggestions

In this paper,the author first summarizes China’s price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.

June Inflation Dropped to 7.1%

China’s consumer inflation rose to 7.1% in June year-on-year,down from 7.7% in May and 8.5% in April as foods prices fell this June."But the deceleration will not ease the pressure of inflation in the second half of 2008," analysts said."The relatively high CPI growth last June provides a favorable base for

Soaring Grain Prices Raise Global Concerns

Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.

Influential Factors in the Econometric Modeling of the Price of Wheat in the United States of America

Wheat is a staple agricultural grain commodity used within the United States and is grown in nearly every state. Modeling the price of Hard Winter Red wheat (the most common type of wheat) is of extreme economic and social importance. The 2008 financial crisis had a drastic effect on the price of food in real terms, tightening household budgets and increasing the US percentage of citizen classed below the poverty line. Understanding the influential factors in the econometric modeling of the price of wheat allows for more effective governmental intervention and price stabilization. Results indicate that the price of wheat is influenced by a combination of 5 separate functions: “supply”, “demand”, “macroeconomic”, “climate” and “natural resource” related functions. These functions derive from a wide variety of different data sources. The functions were determined and then incorporated into an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model taking into account variable interaction, variable transformation and time. This regression exercise resulted in a good model, explaining just over 90% of the variation in the price of wheat. Yet, results indicate that the model though sensitive to sharp decreases in the price of wheat is insensitive to sharp increases in the price of wheat. Ideas are discussed of ways of improving the price model. These include the addition of other variables, such as financial speculation/increased use of climate related variables and the idea of using alternative statistical modeling techniques in place of robust OLS regression modeling, such as SVAR models and Spline GARCH models. This research implies that further research into the modeling of the price of wheat within the US has useful potential for a more productive outcome.