Inflation, Deflation and Normal Price Adjustment

This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.

U.S.,not China, is culprit of global deflation, inflation

This paper is an outcome of comprehensive and systematic research on whether China exports deflation and inflation using the newly developed DAG technique. Our results indicate that in the international transmission of inflation, the United States, as the world's largest economy, plays a dominant role. In contrast, during both deflation and inflation periods, China has a minimal impact on the price levels of major trading partners. Thus China is not to be blamed for global deflation or inflation. This research has made use of DAG and some other techniques to yield reliable and reasonable conclusions.

A simple analytical method for deflation prediction of inflatable structures

The static performance of inflatable structures has been well studied and the dynamic deployment simulation has received much attention. However, very few studies focus on its deflation behavior. Although there are several dynamic finite element algorithms that can be applied to the deflation simulation, their computation costs are expensive, especially for large scale structures. In this work, a simple method based on classic thermodynamics and the analytical relationship between air and membrane was proposed to efficiently analyze the air state variables under the condition of ventilation. Combined with failure analysis of static bearing capacity, a fast incremental analytical method was presented to predict both elastic and post wrinkling deflation process of inflatable structures. Comparisons between simplified analysis, dynamic finite element simulation, and a full-scale experimental test are presented and the suitability of this simple method for solving the air state and predicting the deflation behavior of inflatable structures is proved.

Time Series Modelling with Application to Tanzania Inflation Data

In this paper, time series modelling is examined with a special application to modelling inflation data in Tanzania. In particular the theory of univariate non linear time series analysis is explored and applied to the inflation data spanning from January 1997 to December 2010. Time series models namely, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) (with their extensions to the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity ARCH (GARCH)) models are fitted to the data. The stages in the model building namely, identification, estimation and checking have been explored and applied to the data. The best fitting model is selected based on how well the model captures the stochastic variation in the data (goodness of fit). The goodness of fit is assessed through the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and minimum standard error (MSE). Based on minimum AIC and BIC values, the best fit GARCH models tend to be GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,2). After estimation of the parameters of selected models, a series of diagnostic and forecast accuracy test are performed. Having satisfied with all the model assumptions, GARCH(1,1) model is found to be the best model for forecasting. Based on the selected model, twelve months inflation rates of Tanzania are forecasted in sample period (that is from January 2010 to December 2010). From the results, it is observed that the forecasted series are close to the actual data series.

Immediate balloon deflation method in endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation for extraction of difficult bile duct stones

Background/Aims: Recently, endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation (EPLBD) using a large balloon (12 - 20 mm) for extraction of difficult common bile duct (CBD) stones has been widely accepted with favorable outcomes. However, there is no consensus with regard to the ballooning time. The aim of our study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of immediate balloon deflation in EPLBD for the treatment of difficult bile duct stone. Methods: This was a retrospective study of 80 consecutive patients with bile duct stones who were treated with an immediate balloon deflation method in EPLBD combined with endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) between January 2010 and December 2012. Overall success rate, success rate at first ERCP, and the frequency of mechanical lithotripsy for complete stone removal were assessed for efficacy and safety was evaluated by assessing major complications. Results: Overall success rate for complete stone removal was high (78/80, 97.5%) and success rate for complete stone removal at first ERCP was 86.3% (69/80). The use of mechanical lithotripsy was 0% (0/80). The overall complication rate was favorable (5/80, 6.3%). PostERCP pancreatitis was observed in 3 patients (two: mild, one: moderate). In subgroup analysis, the presence of periampullary diverticulum was the only factor affecting the success rate at first ERCP. Conclusion: This study demonstrated the favorable outcome of immediate balloon deflation for treatment of difficult CBD stones and can be considered for clinical application.

Analytical solutions for inflation of pre-stretched elastomeric circular membranes under uniform pressure

Elastomeric membranes are frequently used in several emerging fields such as soft robotics and flexible electronics.For convenience of the structural design,it is very attractive to find simple analytical solutions to well describe their elastic deformations in response to external loadings.However,both the material/geometrical nonlinearity and the deformation inhomogeneity due to boundary constraints make it much challenging to get an exact analytical solution.In this paper,we focus on the inflation of a prestretched elastomeric circular membrane under uniform pressure,and derive an approximate analytical solution of the pressure-volume curve based upon a reasonable assumption on the shape of the inflated membrane.Such an explicit expression enables us to quantitatively design the material and geometrical parameters of the pre-stretched membrane to generate a target pressure-volume curve with prescribed peak point and initial slope.This work would be of help in the simplified mechanical design of structures involving elastomeric membranes.

The Conditional Heterocedasticity on the Argentine Inflation. An Analysis for the Period from 1943 to 2013

Numerous economic time series do not have a constant mean and in practical situations, we often see that the variance of observational error is subject to a substantial variability over time. This phenomenon is known as volatility. To take into account the presence of volatility in an economic series, it is necessary to resort to models known as conditional heteroscedastic models. In these models, the variance of a series at a given time point depends on past information and other data available up to that time point, so that a conditional variance must be defined, which is not constant and does not coincides with the overall variance of the observed series. There is a very large variety of nonlinear models in the literature, which are useful for the analysis of any economic time series with volatility, but we will focus in analyzing our series of interest using ARCH type models introduced by Engle （1982） and their extensions. These models are non-linear in terms of variance. Our objective will be the study of the monthly inflation data of Argentina for the period from January 1943 to December 2013. The data is officially published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses （or INDEC as it is known in Argentina）. Although it is a very long period in which various changes and interventions took place, it can be seen that certain general patterns of behavior have persisted over time, which allows us to admit that the study can be appropriately based on available information.

The Propagation Delay Effect of the Expansion and Inflation of the Universe

The effect of the propagation delay of gravitational interactions results in a singularity of the normalized acceleration of the radius of a sphere representing the Universe. Stephen Hawking in his Inflation Model also discusses a delay type interaction. This term can be used to model the inflationary rapid expansion of the early Universe. Since the Universe is thought to occupy all of space-time, one cannot define a boundary or radius of the Universe. Therefore, the properties of a sphere in the Universe are analyzed. It is assumed that the Universe will behave similarly to this sphere. This analysis is performed by including the effect of the propagation delay of gravitational interactions in Einstein’s equation.

某风洞充气密封系统设计与应用研究

某风洞充气密封系统用于试验期间隔离大门内外气压环境或填充移动部件间隙,保证风洞回路最高可以模拟2万米高空以下气压环境;密封围带基体材料采用植入增强纤维的硅橡胶,围带截面为“凹”型带两侧固定基座,采用直线型带芯分段模压硫化成型,成功研制了适用于高低温环境、长寿命、高膨胀、大尺度环状充气密封围带;充气/放气气路、电磁阀和变送器等基于集成块安装设计;充气/放气控制系统采用PLC+电磁阀+真空发生器;系统通过Profinet接入风洞测控光纤环网,实现本地/远程自动化控制;解决了围带结构、气密泄漏、大尺度密封面平面度和金属气嘴结构设计等问题;系统应用效果好,自动化水平高,有较大推广应用价值。

金融冲击对劳动市场波动的时变效应——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证研究

本文基于金融市场与劳动市场联动的视角,构建中国金融状况指数,并利用时变参数随机波动向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR)研究金融冲击对劳动市场的影响及时变特征。结果表明,金融冲击显著引发劳动市场的供需失衡。金融状况恶化会提升失业率、降低工资水平并进一步引起宏观经济中的通货紧缩。机制分析表明,企业杠杆对金融冲击的负面影响有放大作用,金融条件紧缩经由企业杠杆的负向调整会进一步导致劳动需求萎缩与失业率上行。对跨境金融冲击和境内金融冲击效果的比较分析揭示,相较于传导渠道,冲击规模是金融冲击对我国劳动市场影响差异的主导因素。据此,本文建议在跨周期调节的同时注意防范化解金融风险,以提升金融支持“稳主体”和“稳就业”的政策效果。

气囊压迫止血器初次放气减压时间不同对桡动脉介入术后安全性的系统评价

目的:系统评价桡动脉介入术后气囊压迫止血器不同初次放气减压时间对病人术后安全性的影响,并探究最佳初次放气时间。方法:系统检索PubMed、Web of Science、EMbase、中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)、维普、万方数据库中2005年1月1日—2021年12月15日公开发表的包含桡动脉介入术后气囊压迫止血器不同初次放气时间对术后不良反应及并发症影响的随机对照试验(RCT)。采用RevMan 5.4软件进行Meta分析,运用R 4.2软件进行敏感性分析。结果:共纳入27项研究,涉及病人5843例。Meta分析结果显示,与术后>2 h初次放气减压相比,术后2 h初次放气减压急性桡动脉闭塞(RAO)发生率[RR=4.90,95%CI(1.69,14.24),P=0.003]、肢体麻木发生率[RR=3.16,95%CI(2.14,4.65),P<0.00001]、肢体发绀发生率[RR=4.35,95%CI(2.36,8.02),P<0.01]更低。与术后2 h初次放气减压相比,术后<2 h初次放气减压急性RAO发生率[RR=0.44,95%CI(0.20,0.97),P=0.04],肢体肿胀发生率[RR=0.41,95%CI(0.27,0.63),P<0.0001]、肢体麻木发生率[RR=0.49,95%CI(0.34,0.70),P<0.0001],肢体发绀发生率[RR=0.37,95%CI(0.18,0.75),P=0.006],病人穿刺部位疼痛发生率[RR=0.50,95%CI(0.34,0.73),P=0.0003]更低。采用逐一剔除文献方法进行敏感性分析,剔除前后结果未发生明显变化,提示Meta分析结果基本稳定。结论:现有证据表明,气囊压迫止血器初次放气减压时间距桡动脉介入术后<2 h比2 h或>2 h更能有效预防术后急性RAO及肢体肿胀、麻木、发绀、穿刺部位疼痛的发生。

两种确定肺段间平面的胸腔镜精准肺段切除术的临床对照研究

目的 比较单纯动脉结扎法与改良膨胀萎陷法在胸腔镜精准肺段切除术中确定肺段间平面的应用效果。方法 前瞻性纳入2021年8月至2023年2月于本院行胸腔镜精准肺段切除术的80例患者,采用随机数字表法将患者分为观察组和对照组,每组40例。观察组患者采用单纯动脉结扎法确定肺段间平面,对照组患者采用改良膨胀萎陷法确定肺段间平面。比较2组患者围术期相关指标、肺功能指标、术后并发症及随访情况。结果 观察组患者手术时间及术中出血量均显著短/少于对照组(P<0.05);而2组患者段间平面显现时间、术后总引流量、引流管留置时间、术后住院时间及肺段切除分布情况比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。术后2组患者用力肺活量占预计值百分比(FVC%pred)、第1秒用力呼气容积占预计值百分比(FEV1%pred)较术前均显著降低(P<0.05),且观察组患者术后FVC%pred、FEV1%pred显著高于对照组(P<0.05)。2组患者术后各并发症的发生情况比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。随访期间所有患者均未出现死亡、肿瘤局部复发或远处转移情况。结论 在胸腔镜精准肺段切除术中应用单纯动脉结扎法确定段间平面较改良膨胀萎陷法具有操作简便、损伤小、对患者肺功能影响小等显著优势,安全性较高,是一种可行且有效的技术。

通货膨胀传导机制识别与通胀分型治理

采用时变Granger因果检验明确中国历次典型通胀时期下的通货膨胀传导机制与通胀成本负担状况,并基于反事实模拟给出结构性通货膨胀的治理方略。研究结果显示:(1)2012年前中国的通货膨胀基本都是全局性通胀,而在2012年后,通货膨胀则具有典型的结构性特征;(2)治理全局性通胀只需盯住通胀源头和成本终端,而治理结构性通胀则应关注疏通通胀传导链条;(3)当下的通货紧缩是一轮由最终消费端发起的全局性通缩,但由于此轮通缩中只存在价格逆向传导链条,导致其仍有演化为结构性通缩的可能;(4)面对结构性通货紧缩,中央银行应采取适度盯住生产端价格指数的方式予以治理,这不仅有利于事前化解可能出现的产业链断裂风险,而且也能为后疫情时期的经济复苏营造良好的宏观环境和增长空间。

串联囊式压力脉动衰减器气压主动控制方法研究

针对现有串联囊式衰减器(囊式衰减器)压力适应范围窄的问题,提出了通过气压控制系统实现囊式衰减器气囊内部气压主动跟随液压系统工作压力变化的方法,使囊式衰减器在不同工作压力时均具有良好压力脉动抑制性能。在建立气动伺服控制系统数学模型的基础上,分别采用比例积分微分(proportional integral derivative,PID)及模糊PID控制方法实现了囊式衰减器气囊内部气压主动跟随系统工作压力的变化,分析了系统工作压力的变化频率、振幅、气瓶充气压力等因素对气囊内压力控制性能的影响,在理论上证明了所提出方法的可行性;分别通过声学仿真软件和试验研究了采用与不采用气压主动控制时囊式衰减器对压力脉动的抑制性能,研究结果均表明采用气压主动控制方法时囊式衰减器对液压管道系统压力脉动的衰减幅值更大、压力适应范围更广,进而验证了所提出气压主动控制方法的有效性与可行性。

轮胎充气过程胎压自动预估方法

针对越野汽车轮胎充气过程胎压动态复杂变化情况,提出一种轮胎充气过程胎压实时预估方法。主要由数据采集与预处理模块、预标定轮胎气阻模块及轮胎胎压预估模块组成;根据测压工况轮胎胎压值估算出轮胎气阻值;在此基础上,轮胎胎压预估模块利用气动原理循环预估轮胎胎压;并通过轮胎中央充放气系统平台进行验证。结果表明:该算法预估的均方根误差不超过0.0843 MPa,极大提高了胎压预估的精度。

Inventory Policy for a Deteriorating Item with Time-Varying Demand Under Trade Credit and Inflation

It’s often the case that the supplier will provide the retailer with a permissible delay period in payments, during which the supplier charges the retailer no interest and the retailer accumulates interest earned from investment return. As a type of price reduction and an alternative to price discount,trade credit helps the supplier encourage the retailer’s ordering. This paper develops an inventory replenishment model for a deteriorating item with time-varying demand and shortages, taking account of trade credit and time value of money under inflation over a finite time horizon. This model is an extension and development of the existing studies related to the inventory system considering trade credit and time value of money and offers a more general model with more flexibility and resilience to handle the situation where demand of the end market is non-decreasing with regard to time.

电力环保型混合绝缘气体配气方法优化

目前电力系统环保型SF_(6)/CF_(4)混合绝缘气体在GIS设备上的配气成本较高,现场选择过充SF_(6)气体以保证其绝缘和灭弧性能,不符合使用该混合气体以实现环保和防液化的目的。为此,提出了基于单一质量流量控制器的环保型SF_(6)/CF_(4)混合绝缘气体分时段交替配气优化方法。通过分时段交替配气即时混匀技术,分析并优化了源于共用气路管道残余气体导致的配气误差,研究了SF_(6)气体输出时间修正技术及最末时段时间再分配方法,进一步降低了充入气体混合比误差。模拟实验表明,该方法的即时混合比与24 h后混合比相对于目标值偏差均小于±0.5个百分点,符合DL/T 2243—2021标准要求。

广西林火发生动态及气象影响因素研究

了解森林火灾的时空分布格局,定量分析其统计学规律,能够为该地区的火源管理与森林火灾科学预防提供基础支撑。根据广西1990—2020年的森林火灾数据、气象数据和基础地理数据,分析广西大尺度下的森林火灾时空分布趋势,同时构建零膨胀负二项回归模型,探讨气象因素对森林火灾的影响。结果表明,在年际变化上,广西林火数量呈“M”形波动,2005年以后森林火灾波动较大,季节上多发于冬季和春季,每年10月至次年4月累计发生13 249起,占比80%;森林火灾的发生具有明显的地域聚集性,主要发生在海拔0~400 m和斜坡为25°以下的平原低山地区;气象因子对森林火灾的发生具有重要影响,其中降雨量和平均风速对广西森林火灾的影响最为显著。未来广西应加大防火期,尤其是重要节假日前后的野外火源管控力度与应急处置能力,同时完善火险天气预警,以应对极端天气带来的森林火灾隐患。

大容量气缸充气时间探讨

压缩空气在气缸内膨胀做功时,气体压强的大小和物体弹射的速度(加速度)有关,而气缸内气体充气时间的长短又决定了弹射能否成功。气缸充气时间与气缸的进气口半径、充气压强的大小有着密切关系。对气缸充气时间的理论分析及其与进气口半径、充气压强的关系进行探讨。

硫化后充气压力和时间对航空轮胎性能的影响

选取27×7.7-15航空轮胎作为研究对象,研究硫化后充气压力和时间对航空轮胎性能的影响。分析胎体帘线张力与充气压力的关系以及帘线收缩率、收缩力与温度的关系,并通过热电偶测温法测量轮胎硫化后充气过程中温度随时间的变化情况,确定轮胎最小硫化后充气压力设为200 kPa,可以保证轮胎在胎体温度为160~170℃时出模胎体帘线不产生热收缩;硫化后充气时间设为1个硫化周期,可以保证轮胎冷却至环境温度。成品轮胎充气外缘尺寸及动态模拟试验验证了后充气压力和时间选取的合理性。