Statistical Prediction for Annual Start Date and Duration of Sea-Ice Coverage at Qinhuangdao Observation Station

Qinhuangdao City is located in the mid-latitude monsoon-affected region,and the timing of sea-ice coverage changes from year to year,making sea-ice forecasting difficult.In this paper,we propose a statistical model using the 1980-2013 data collected at the Qinhuangdao observation station.The start date and the duration of ice coverage are fitted with four marginal distributions,from which the best-fitted,i.e.,the Weibull distribution,is selected to form a joint probability density function(PDF),built by the Gaussian copula method,for the two variables.With a given start date forecast by the Gray-Markov model(GMM),the joint PDF becomes a conditional probability model,which predicts that the duration of ice coverage is most likely 33 days at the Qinhuangdao observation station in 2014-2015.The predicted duration value is only two days less than the actual situation.The results prove that the new prediction model is feasible and effective to predict the period of ice coverage.The general sea-ice conditions that the sea ice would most likely form on December 8 and last for 80 days at the Qinhuangdao observation station could also be obtained from the joint PDF.The statistical model provides a useful tool to forecast ice conditions for planning and management of maritime activities.

Effect of Camel Milk Fortified with Dates in Ice Cream Manufacture on Viscosity, Overrun, and Rheological Properties during Storage Period

The effect of using camel milk with 2 dates types (Sokary & Al-Khalas), in 3 forms (paste, pieces, and molasses), with 2 different concentrations (5% & 10%) in the manufacturing of ice cream on its viscosity, overrun%, rheological and melting properties during storage period up to 60 days at -18&#176C was studied. It was noticed that there are higher mean of viscosity values (cp) when using “Al-khalas” dates paste 5% and 10% followed by samples with “sokary” paste then samples with molasses in ice cream samples compared to those with added date’s pieces of either “Sokary” or “Al-khalas”. There are significant differences of overrun values between all treatments and samples with the added date paste of either “sokary” or “Al-khalas” which recorded the lowest values. Increased melting resistance and good qualities as heat shock and melting properties were significantly better for the samples with added dates pieces or paste unlike the molasses. The storage effect is obvious decline, especially when using dates molasses.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the melt onset dates over Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2017

The melt onset dates(MOD)over Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the seasonal cycle of sea ice surface properties,which impacts Arctic surface solar radiation absorbed by the ice-ocean system.Monitoring interannual variations in MOD is valuable for understanding climate change.In this study,we investigated the spatio-temporal variability of MOD over Arctic sea ice and 14 Arctic sub-regions in the period of 1979 to 2017 from passive microwave satellite data.A set of mathematical and statistical methods,including the Sen’s slope and Mann-Kendall mutation tests,were used to comprehensively assess the variation trend and abrupt points of MOD during the past 39 years for different Arctic sub-regions.Additionally,the correlation between Arctic Oscillation(AO)and MOD was analyzed.The results indicate that:(1)all Arctic sub-regions show a trend toward earlier MOD except the Bering Sea and St.Lawrence Gulf.The East Siberian Sea exhibits a significantly earlier trend,with the highest rate of-9.45 d/decade;(2)the temporal variability and statistical significance of MOD trend exhibit large interannual differences with different time windows for most regions in the Arctic;(3)during the past 39 years,the MOD changed abruptly in different years for different sub-regions;(4)the seasonal AO has more influence on MOD than monthly AO.The findings in this study can improve our knowledge of MOD changes and are beneficial for further Arctic climate change study.

Functional Ice Cream with Coffee-Related Flavor

In this study, Siwi roasted date seeds (pits) as a by-product of the date factories were used in powder form for ice cream fortification to produce a new product with coffee-like flavor. Also, this product possesses functional, nutritional and health benefits as it contains, minerals, phenolic compounds and possess antioxidant activity. Six ice cream mixes were prepared: plain ice cream without additives (control), five ice cream treatments supplemented with powder of the Nescafé (3%), Coffee (3%) and Roasted Date Seeds Powder (RDSP) with ratio of 3%, 4% and 5%, respectively. The results showed that increasing the added percentage of Roasted Date Seeds Powder (RDSP) to the ice cream mixes leads to an increase in the total solids, fibers, total nitrogen and ash content of the final product. It also increases viscosity, specific gravity, weight per gallon and increase the depression of freezing point of the mixes. The overrun and melting resistance of the final ice cream also increased compared with the control. The sensory evaluation was improved by adding RDSP comparing to control. So in this study, it is recommended to use RDSP as the source of minerals and health-promoting for ice cream making, as it contains bioactive compounds and also gives the ice cream desirable color and coffee-like flavor, but free of caffeine.

Tree ring-dated fluctuation history of Midui glacier since the Little Ice Age in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Fluctuation history of Midui glacier in the southeastern Tibet since the Little Ice Age(LIA) was reconstructed by the dating of lateral and terminal moraines using tree rings.Four conversions of glacier advance/stabilization to retreat were identified at around 1767,1875,1924 and 1964.The glacier reached its LIA maximum position at 1767.The fluctuations are consistent with those of other glaciers from the Tibetan Plateau,the Rockies and the Alps,suggesting high spatial coherency of glacier fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere.Comparison with the summer temperature reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau indicated that the Midui glacier fluctuation may be related to temperature variation on the centennial timescale.On the decadal scale,the fluctuation could correspond to cold/warm variation with an 8-year lag on average.

Paleoglacial and paleoclimate reconstructions during the global Last Glacial Maximum in the Longriba area, eastern Tibetan Plateau

Owing to the remoteness of the Longriba area and the lack of dating records,it is extremely challenging to reconstruct the chronology and extent of the paleoglaciers in this area.In this paper,we combined limited observational data with automated modelling for paleoglacial reconstructions.We first identified a broadly distributed paleoglacier from satellite imagery and field investigation based on the sediment-landform assemblage principle and dated it to 23.1±1.4~19.5±1.2 ka by ^(10)Be exposure dating,corresponding to the global Last Glacial Maximum(gLGM).Then,we reconstructed the extent and ice surface of 171 paleoglaciers formed during the similar period based on geomorphological evidence and‘ice surface profile’modelling.The results showed that the paleoglacial coverage was 426.5 km2,with an ice volume of 38.1 km^(3),in the Longriba area.The reconstructed equilibrium line altitudes(ELAs)based on modelled ice surfaces yielded an average of 4245±66 m above sea level(asl),~725±73 m lower than the present ELA(4970±29 m asl).The temperature was~5.51-6.68℃lower,and the precipitation was~30-34%less in Longriba,during the gLGM compared to the present day.This glacial advance was mainly driven by colder climate that was synchronous with Northern Hemisphere cooling events.

Dating a 109.9 m ice core from Dome A (East Antarctica) with volcanic records and a firn densification model

A 109.9 m ice core was extracted at a location about 300 m away from the Dome A summit （80°00′S, 77°21″E） by the Chinese team of the International Trans-Antarctic Science Expedition （ITASE） during the 21st Chinese National Antarctica Research Expedition （CHINARE） in January 2005. Two independent methods were used for dating the ice core, volcanic event markers shown by prominent non-sea-salt sulfate （nss-SO4^2-） and the Herron and Langway （H-L） firn densification model. Six promi- nent volcanic events （Agung 1963 AD, Tambora 1815 AD, Kuwae 1453 AD, Unknown 1259 AD, Taupo 186 AD and Pinatubo 1050 BC） were identified by comparison with other Antarctic ice cores. Based on the mean accumulation rates be- tween adjacent events, we estimate the age at the tim pore close-off depth （102 m） was 3516±100 a BP. This is the oldest close-off age ever reported from the Antarctic and the Greenland ice sheets. Calculations using the H-L model show that the age at the same depth is 3581±100 a BP. The two dating techniques differ by 65 years, or -1.8% of the record. We calculated the bottom age of the ice core as 4009±150 a BP using the volcanic dating method and 4115±150 a BP using the H-L model method.

近57年江苏省雷暴变化趋势特征分析

利用江苏省1951—2007年雷暴资料,采用气候倾向率、小波分析和保证率等气候诊断方法,探讨江苏省近57年雷暴的气候变化趋势、周期性特征、时空分布规律和不同保证率下初终期分布。结果表明:江苏省雷暴日数年际变化整体呈减少趋势,主要表现在夏季和秋季雷暴日数的减少。而春季的多年变化不明显。江苏省每10年雷暴日数减少约2天。在年代际变化中,年雷暴日数明显的正距平期主要分布在1960年代初、1960年代末—1970年代初中期,1980年代后期、1990年代后期。负距平期主要出现于1970年代后期—1980年代中期、1990年代中后期和1990年代后期—本世纪初期。不同保证率下雷暴初日、终日存在明显地区差异,50%保证率下雷暴初日(终日)在3月中旬—4月上旬(9月上旬—下旬),80%保证率下雷暴初日(终日)在3月下旬—5月上旬(10月上旬—下旬)。在周期分布上,江苏8～10 a以上的周期都相对比较稳定且具有全域性,而相对较短的周期一般都不具有全域性,从长周期分析江苏地区近几年年雷暴日数各地均处于偏多的周期内。

气候变暖对西北干旱区农业热量资源变化的影响

气候变暖将改变农业气候资源尤其是热量资源的时空分布。本文通过分析西北干旱区67个气象站点的气象数据,研究了西北干旱区近50年气温、积温、霜冻的变化特征与规律。结果表明,西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势,上升幅度为0.33℃.10a 1,高于全国平均水平,其中北疆增温幅度大于其他地区。年内变化上,冬季增温幅度最大。近50年,西北干旱区≥0℃、≥10℃积温变化率分别为67.8℃.10a 1和68.8℃.10a 1,≥0℃和≥10℃积温持续的时间也呈增加趋势,其中≥0℃积温持续天数的增加主要是由于结束日期的推迟引起的,而≥10℃积温天数的增加主要是因为初始日期的提前。研究区无霜期呈增加趋势,主要表现为初霜日的延迟和终霜日的提前,其趋势分别可达2 d.10a 1和1.4 d.10a 1,前者贡献略大。西北干旱区初霜出现日期的年际波动小于终霜日,终霜出现日期晚于≥10℃积温开始日期约10 d,且气温变暖的趋势并没有引起这一状况的改变,而多数站点≥10℃积温结束日期早于初霜开始日期。

河西走廊东部结冰初、终日气候特征

利用1961-2015年河西走廊东部5个气象站点结冰初、终日观测资料和地、气温资料,采用现代气候诊断分析方法,分析了河西走廊东部结冰初、终日的时空变化特征以及结冰初、终日与地、气温的关系。结果表明:受海拔、地形地势、植被覆盖和地表岩性等影响,在空间分布上,结冰初日为山区最早,荒漠区次之,绿洲平原区最晚;结冰终日为山区最晚,荒漠区次之,绿洲平原区最早;各地结冰初、终日存在一定的异常性,正常结冰初、终日的年份概率均在60%左右,偏早和特早结冰初日以及偏晚和特晚结冰终日的年份概率均在20%左右,结冰初、终日与气温的异常年份有较好的对应关系。在时间变化上,结冰初日呈推迟趋势,结冰终日呈提早趋势,结冰初日推迟的幅度比结冰终日提早的幅度更大;结冰初、终日时间序列均分别存在10~12 a、8~10 a的准周期变化。结冰初、终日与地、气温和海拔具有极显著相关性,地、气温每升高1℃,结冰初日分别推迟约3.0 d、3.5 d,结冰终日分别提早约4.2 d、4.9 d;海拔每升高100 m,结冰初日提早约1.8 d,结冰终日推迟约2.5 d;结冰终日对气候变暖和海拔变化的响应程度比结冰初日更敏感。

Review on Dating Methods:Numerical Dating in the Quaternary Geology of High Asia

Over the past few years, OSL and TCN datings of glacial material from High Asia have come into fashion. To this day, however, these techniques do not permit safe calibration. The intensity of the cosmic ray flux is being modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and their secular fluctuations in the past. So far, these variations cannot be converted into the respective local TCN production rates for High Asia. We have reason to believe that the ages that are being calculated despite these uneertainties are generally overestimated. This assessment is supported by eonventional radiocarbon dates and above＂ all by the glacial chronology developed independently on the basis of the Quaternary geological method. The strongly emerging evidence for a much more extensive LGM glaciation of High Asia is, however, either being ignored or rejected by many authors, solely on the basis of the above-mentioned uncalibrated datings. This self-conceit based on the ＂dating fallacy＂, as we call it, should be avoided since it goes decidedly against the standards of the scientific method established in Quaternary geology and makes a fundamental scientific discussion impossible.

Reconstructing the post-LGM deglacial history of Hollingsworth Glacier on Ricker Hills,Transantarctic Mountains,Antarctica

The Transantarctic Mountains are an important corridor between the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Western Ross Sea,where most current ice streams and outlet glaciers arise.We investigated Ricker Hills,the largest exposed mountainous region between Southern Victoria Land and Terra Nova Bay,and dated the glacial landforms using in-situ cosmogenic-nuclide 10 Be surface exposure dating to reconstruct the paleo-glacial dynamics.The surface of the Hollingsworth glacier lowered since the middle of Marine Isotope Stage(MIS)2(22.1 ka);therefore,the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM)occurred before that period.Cosmogenic,geomorphic,and climatic records constrained the glacial surface slope to be between 5.4°and 6.8°.The ice was 270-320 m thicker at the LGM(MIS 2)than presently but did not override the top surface of the Benson Knob.Moreover,previous glacial periods such as the local LGM(MIS 4)or Penultimate Glacial Maximum(MIS 6)maintained thicker ice than the LGM(MIS 2).The Ross Ice Shelf opening during the mid-Holocene(~6 ka)caused the rapid collapse of the terminal outlet glaciers and supplied notable snow accumulation upstream,which stagnated lowering.The greatest lowering and retreat occurred during the late Holocene(2.3~0.8 ka),when elephant seal colonies thrived in the Ross Embayment.

1981—2020年贵州省降雪时空分布特征

利用1981—2020年贵州省降雪日数、初始日期、终止日期资料,分析了贵州降雪的气候特征,以及降雪日数与海拔高度、纬度的关系。结果表明:1)贵州降雪日数西北多、南少,大值中心位于贵州西北部;降雪日数整体偏少,呈逐渐减小的趋势,2012年为突变点,整体上降雪日数每10 a减少1.6 d。降雪从11月开始出现,持续到次年3月,主要集中在冬季;开始时间集中在08—10时和20—21时;降雪具有明显的间歇性特征,降雪天气过程中仅发生1次降雪的占全部降雪过程的48.1%,主要在贵州南部,持续3 d及以上的过程集中在贵州中北部。2)降雪初始日期集中在12、1月,最早11月;终止日期集中在2、3月,最晚4月。贵州中北部开始降雪多为12月,终止降雪多为2月;南部初始多为1月,终止降雪多为1—2月。贵州中北部降雪期更长,开始到结束间隔约为60—129 d,而南部大部为40 d以下,全省平均54 d。3)降雪日数随着海拔高度每升高100 m增加2.3 d,纬度每增加1°增加11.4 d。

AntarcticaLC2000：The new Antarctic land cover database for the year 2000

Antarctica plays a key role in global energy balance and sea level change.It has been conventionally viewed as a whole ice body with high albedo in General Circulation Models or Regional Climate Models and the differences of land cover has usually been overlooked.Land cover in Antarctica is one of the most important drivers of changes in the Earth system.Detailed land cover information over the Antarctic region is necessary as spatial resolution improves in land process models.However,there is a lack of complete Antarctic land cover dataset derived from a consistent data source.To fill this data gap,we have produced a database named Antarctic Land Cover Database for the Year 2000(AntarcticaLC2000) using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus(ETM+) data acquired around 2000 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS) images acquired in the austral summer of 2003/2004 according to the criteria for the 1:100000-scale.Three land cover types were included in this map,separately,ice-free rocks,blue ice,and snow/firn.This classification legend was determined based on a review of the land cover systems in Antarctica(LCCSA) and an analysis of different land surface types and the potential of satellite data.Image classification was conducted through a combined usage of computer-aided and manual interpretation methods.A total of 4067 validation sample units were collected through visual interpretation in a stratified random sampling manner.An overall accuracy of 92.3%and the Kappa coefficient of 0.836 were achieved.Results show that the areas and percentages of ice-free rocks,blue ice,and snow/firn are 73268.81 km2(0.537%),225937.26 km2(1.656%),and 13345460.41 km2(97.807%),respectively.The comparisons with other different data proved a higher accuracy of our product and a more advantageous data quality.These indicate that AntarcticaLC2000,the new land cover dataset for Antarctica entirely derived from satellite data,is a reliable product for a broad spectrum of applications.

Cosmogenic^(10)Be dating of the oldest moraine in the Hengduan Mountains

The Hengduan Mountains is in the transitional zone between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)and the YunnanGuizhou Plateau in China,and a key area for elucidating the Quaternary environmental changes in Asia.The paleo-Daocheng ice cap was located on the Shaluli Hilly Plateau in the northeastern Hengduan Mountains,the oldest moraines in the Hengduan Mountains region were found in the ice cap area.Such glacial landforms provide key evidence to study the timing when this area entered the cryosphere with the uplift of the QTP.However,it is difficult to collect suitable glacial boulders from these moraines for traditional terrestrial in-situ cosmogenic nuclide(TCN)exposure dating because of long-term severe moraine degradation.Here,we collected clast samples from the moraine surface and depth profile to constrain the age of the oldest moraine in Kuzhaori(moraine E)using TCN^(10)Be dating technique.The minimum^(10)Be ages of five clast samples from the moraine surface range from 187.4±1.5 to 576.8±4.3 ka,implying that the moraine has been seriously degraded since deposition.Based on the TCN^(10)Be concentrations of the samples from a depth profile and simulations,the exposure-erosion-inheritance history of the profile was obtained.By fitting to the profile^(10)Be concentrations using the chi-square test,the simulations yielded a reliable age of 626.0±52.5 ka for the moraine.Therefore,the oldest moraine(moraine E)in Kuzhaori was most likely formed at about 0.63Ma ago,corresponding to the marine isotope stage(MIS)16.This glaciation represents the maximum Quaternary glaciation after the QTP was elevated into the cryosphere by the Kunlun-Yellow River Tectonic Movement.