A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified.Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP.In general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China.Moreover,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF.The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.

CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment

The outputs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALSf3-L)model for the decadal climate prediction project(DCPP)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)are described in this paper.The FGOALS-f3-L was initialized through the upgraded,weakly coupled data assimilation scheme,referred to as EnOI-IAU,which assimilates observational anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)and upper-level(0–1000-m)ocean temperature and salinity profiles into the coupled model.Then,nine ensemble members of 10-year hindcast/forecast experiments were conducted for each initial year over the period of 1960–2021,based on initial conditions produced by three initialization experiments.The hindcast and forecast experiments follow the experiment designs of the Component-A and Component-B of the DCPP,respectively.The decadal prediction output datasets contain a total of 44 monthly mean atmospheric and oceanic variables.The preliminary evaluation indicates that the hindcast experiments show significant predictive skill for the interannual variations of SST in the north Pacific and multi-year variations of SST in the subtropical Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean.

Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

A NEW MODEL FOR CALCULATING PROPAGATION PRESSURE AND INITIATION PRESSURE OF PIPELINES WITH A LOCAL DENT

An analytical model of a ring with six yield hinges and two deformable arc segments is presented for. the prediction of the buckle propagation pressure and initiation pressure in offshore pipelines. The configuration of a fully collapsed ring is considered as a real dumbbell shape with a line touch between two 'bells', instead of the dumbbell shape with a point touch of two diametrically opposite points. Calculations are performed assuming that the dominant effect on the plastic energy dissipation has the circumferential bending mode. For the linear strain-hardening materials it is found that theoretical predictions based on the above model for both propagation pressure and initiation nressure are in good agreement with experimental results of Kyriakides et al.

Establishing an Initial Electron Beam Model with Monte Carlo Simulation for a Single 6 MV X-ray Medical Linac Based on Particle Dynamics Characteristics

Objective:In this study,we try to establish an initial electron beam model by combining Monte Carlo simulation method with particle dynamic calculation(TRSV)for the single 6 MV X-ray accelerating waveguide of BJ-6 medical linac.Methods and Materials:1.We adapted the treatment head configuration of BJ-6 medical linac made by Beijing Medical Equipment Institute(BMEI)as the radiation system for this study.2.Use particle dynamics calculation code called TRSV to drive out the initial electron beam parameters of the energy spectrum,the spatial intensity distribution,and the beam incidence angle.3.Analyze the 6 MV X-ray beam characteristics of PDDc,OARc in a water phantom by using Monte Carlo simulation(BEAMnrc,DOSXYZnrc)for a preset of the initial electron beam parameters which have been determined by TRSV,do the comparisons of the measured results of PDDm,OARm in a real water phantom,and then use the deviations of calculated and measured results to slightly modify the initial electron beam model back and forth until the deviations meet the error less than 2%.Results:The deviations between the Monte Carlo simulation results of percentage depth doses at PDDc and off-axis ratios OARc and the measured results of PDDm and OARm in a water phantom were within 2%.Conclusion:When doing the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the parameters of an initial electron beam for a particular medical linac like BJ-6,modifying some parameters based on the particle dynamics calculation code would give some more reasonable and more acceptable results.

Prototype Validation Model of FY-4 Initiated

Major progress has been achieved in the development of the prototype of FY-4 meteorological satellite.After two years development,the FY-4 development team with SAST as the leader finished the electrical model of the satellite and passed the preliminary design review.The development of the prototype validation satellite has been initiated.FY-4 will be China's first geostationary Earth observation remote

Study of full waveform inversion based on L-BFGS algorithm

Full waveform inversion size of full waveform inversion will and the limitation of full waveform is mainly used to obtain high resolution velocity models of subsurface. The lead to a gigantic computation cost. Under the available computer resource inversion, the authors propose L-BFGS algorithm as the optimization method to solve this problem. In order to demonstrate the flexibility of the method, three different numerical experi- ments have been done to analyze the properties of full waveform inversion based on L-BFGS.

Case studies of ERS-1 altimeter data applicating in China Sea

The impact of ERS-1 altimeter significant wave height on analysis of wave field and wave pre- dictions is tested through analysis of selected cases. Application of the altimeter data may modifg initial tield and thus 24-hour prediction of significant wave height. However the variations in initial wave field almost make no effect on 48-hour predictions.

On the “spring predictability barrier” for strong El Nio events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system

Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model.

A parameterization scheme for upward lightning in the cloud model and a discussion of the initial favorable environmental characteristics in the cloud

The upward lightning(UL) initiated from the top of tall buildings(at least above 100 m) is a type of atmospheric discharge. Currently, we understand the nature of the UL from ground observations, but the corresponding theoretical research is lacking. Based on an existing bidirectional leader stochastic model, a stochastic parameterization scheme for the UL has been built and embedded in an existing two-dimensional thundercloud charge/discharge model. The ULs simulated from the experiments with two-dimensional high resolution agree generally with the observation results. By analyzing the charge structure of thunderstorm clouds, we determined the in-cloud environmental characteristics that favor the initiation of conventional cloud-to-ground(CG) flashes and analyzed the differences and similarities of some characteristics of the positive and the negative UL. Simulation results indicate that the positive ULs are typically other-lightning-triggered ULs(OLTUL) and are usually a discharge phenomenon between the ground and the lower positive charge region appearing below the main middle negative charge region. The effect of the previous in-cloud lightning(IC) process of space electrical field provides favorable conditions for the initiation of a positive UL. Its entire discharge process is limited, and the branches of the leader are fewer in number as its discharge is not sufficient. A negative UL is generally a discharge phenomenon of the dipole charge structure between the ground and the main negative charge region. The lower temperature stratification and the sinking of the hydrometeors typically initiate a negative UL. Negative ULs develop strongly and have more branches. The OLTUL is initiated mainly during the development stage of a thunderstorm, while the self-triggered UL(STUL) is initiated mainly during the dissipation stage of a thunderstorm.

Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM(1,1) model

An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guantlng reservoir inlet and outlet （China）. The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What＇s more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting.

Numeric modelling and risk assessment of pollutions in the Chinese Bohai Sea

To simulate the dynamic process of total nitrogen(TN) in seas, numerical modelling combined with the adjoint method is implemented in this study. Because nonpoint source terms(ST) and initial values(IV) of TN are essential but difficult to determine, the adjoint method was applied to a numerical model, and the ST and IV terms of TN were inverted via routine monitoring data in the Bohai Sea. In twin experiments, the adjoint method was capable of inverting the prescribed spatio-temporally distributed ST and the spatial distributed IV. In practical experiments, the results demonstrated that the simulation precision with ST inversion was higher than that with IV inversion and was accurate with joint initial values and source term(IST) inversion. This result indicates that nonpoint source TN is essential for the simulation of TN concentration. Furthermore, the simulated results indicate that the pollution in three bays of the Bohai Sea is rather severe. The model in this study is not specific to the Bohai Sea and can be generalized to other areas, such as the Beibu Gulf. These findings may assist in the development of cost-effective controls for accidental or planned industrial pollutant releases into coastal waters.

Another Definition of Order-Sorted Algebra

In this paper the definition of order-sorted algebra is generalized by introducing transforma-tion functions between subtypes and supertypes. According to our definition, a type needn'tbe a subset of its supertype and a record model may form an order-sorted algebra. A newdefinition of equation is given. It has also been proved that equational theories and describingsingle inheritance have the initial model.