The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

Subsidy Policy System for Agricultural Natural Disasters in China

From theories and cases,this paper analyzed current situation of subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters in China.Improvement and perfection of subsidy policies for agricultural natural disasters need clear classification and additional special subsidy plan.It is recommended to improve and perfect subsidy policy system for agricultural natural disasters through attaching importance to scientific studies on reduction and prevention of agricultural disasters and gradually supplementing agricultural disaster reduction and prevention system.

Obstacles and Countermeasures for Policyoriented Agricultural Insurance Development in the Context of Agricultural Modernization

Agricultural insurance is a key impetus for agricultural modernization. How- ever, there are some problems on the aspect, including deficiency of law supports and top system design, less recognition on insurance of farmers and low effective demands of agricultural insurance market, huge agricultural risks and insufficient supply from agricultural insurance market, and shortage of reinsurance support and disaster risk desertification, hardly to deal with heavy disasters. Therefore, some countermeasures were proposed, including to formulate agricultural insurance laws and establish specific agricultural insurance management institutions, to reinforce promotion and improve premium subsidy system in order to increase market de- mands, to increase tax preference and operating costs, improve insurance services and enhance effective supply in market and to construct a risk diversification system of agricultural heavy disaster.

Remote Sensing Dynamic Monitoring System for Agricultural Disaster in Henan Province Based on Multi-source Satellite Data

Using 3S technology, relying on earth-space three-dimensional agriculture disaster monitoring network, remote sensing monitoring model for agricultural disaster in Henan Province was established, and agricultural disaster monitoring system plat- form of Henan Province based on multi-souroe satellite data was further constructed, which realizes dynamic monitoring of agricultural disasters in Henan Province （drought, flood, snow cover and straw burning）.

Potato farmers’ preference for agricultural insurance in China: An investigation using the choice experimental method

Potato insurance plays an important role in transferring agricultural risks to promote the potato staple strategy. Understanding farmers’ real preferences for potato insurance attributes is important to improve the potato insurance. In this study, a choice experiment was designed with attributes such as peril, minimum compensation ratio for production loss, types of crops covered by insurance, annual premium per mu after subsidy, and complexity of claims procedures. We constructed a mixed logit model based on a questionnaire survey of 362 potato farmers’ choices of insurance attributes from 24 villages in Dingxi City of Gansu Province using random sampling. The results show that:(1) farmers prefer agricultural insurance with widely perils including output price drop and input cost risk;(2) farmers who have suffered plant disease and insect and pest damage are willing to pay a high premium for the insurance with a high compensation ratio and several types of crops covered;full-time farmers and large-scale farmers preferred insurance products with low complexity of claims procedures. Therefore, new potato insurance design could be considered specifically for different farmer groups such as those who had previous disaster experiences, and large-or small-scale farm operations.

Strategies for Development of Shaanxi's Agricultural Insurance Industry

This paper introduces current situations of agricultural insurance market in Shaanxi Province. It is indicated that development of Shaanxi's agricultural insurance industry is faced with following difficulties. First, risks of agricultural production are various, occurrence frequency is high and losses are great. Second, effective supply of commercial insurance companies for agriculture is seriously inadequate. Third, farmers' demand for agricultural insurance is restricted by many factors. Fourth, government support for agricultural insurance is not generous. Then, it puts forward strategies for development of agricultural insurance in Shaanxi Province. These include: encourage commercial insurance companies to actively enter agricultural insurance market; establish perfect agricultural reinsurance system; strengthen propaganda of agricultural insurance and speed up agricultural industrialization; enhance policy support for agricultural insurance to promote its development.

Reasons and Improving Strategies of Slow Development of Agricultural Insurance System in China

In order to establish modern agriculture and reduce harmful effects of natural disasters to agriculture, developing agricultural insurance and improving agricultural management system are essential. This paper firstly elaborated the feasibility and importance of improving agricultural economy, and analyzed some reasons which restricted China agricultural insurance developing speed, and then gave some improving suggestions in the end.

Evaluation and Effect of Agro-meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Production in Liaoning Province

Based on statistic data of agricultural production and meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province from 1971 to 2008,the effect weight,disaster rate and variance value of main agro-meteorological disasters including drought,flood,wind,hail and frozen injury were calculated,and the variation characteristic of time series of agro-meteorological disasters was further analyzed,while the grade division and comprehensive evaluation of agro-meteorological disasters were carried out in our paper.The results showed that there was a negative correlation between grain yield and the degree of agro-meteorological disasters,and agro-meteorological disasters were relatively serious in 1989,1997 and 2000,with the reduction of grain yield.Meanwhile,the occurrence frequency of light disasters was highest,accounting for 39% of total years,and the adverse effect of agro-meteorological disasters on agricultural production became more and more severe decade by decade;the effect weight of drought reached 63%,so drought was the main agro-meteorological disaster influencing agricultural production.

Change Characteristics of Climate and Main Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Shiyang River Basin

Based on 35 a meteorological data and main crops planting data in Shiyang River basin meteorological station,the agricultural climate change,agricultural production,hydrology change and the influences on the crops layout,planting in the basin were discussed.The results showed that the linear inclined rates of ≥0 ℃,10 ℃ accumulated temperature increase in the north-central part were bigger than in the south,and the heat resources increased evidently.The annual precipitation increased in the linear inclined rate which was 4.719 mm/10 a,and the annual runoff decreased in 0.274×109 m3/10 a velocity.The climate productivity increased in 134.62 kg/(hm2·10 a) velocity.In late spring and early summer,the regional drought increased evidently,and the frostless period prolonged.The sand storm decreased evidently.The gale in the south increased and decreased in the north-central part.The agricultural climate change made that the spring wheat planting zone advanced to the high-altitude area.The seeding date advanced,and the growth period shortened.It didn't favor for the yield formation.However,it was favorable to improve the yield and quality of thermophilous crops such as the corn,cotton and wine grape and so on.

Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output

This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans （RCK） model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the inlfuences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved：（i） agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model;（ii） crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model;（iii） premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.

Farmers using insurance and cooperatives to manage agricultural risks: A case study of the swine industry in China

Purchasing agricultural insurance and joining agricultural cooperatives are two prevalent instruments used by farmers in China for dealing with agricultural risks. Data from 443 swine farmers in Jiangsu and Henan provinces of China were collected. Factors affecting the farmers’ decision to purchase agricultural insurance and join agricultural cooperatives were assessed. The possibility of simultaneous use of both instruments and the potential correlation between these two decisions was considered as well. Results showed that the farmers’ decision to use agricultural insurance and cooperatives was positively correlated, indicating that farmers who purchased agricultural insurance which mainly used to mitigate production risks were more likely to join agricultural cooperatives which more used to share market risks, and vice versa. Farmers’ knowledge of swine insurance and trust in the local government positively impacted the purchase of agricultural insurance, while education, years involved in swine production and scale of swine production positively impacted farmers joining agricultural cooperatives.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production and countermeasures from an agricultural insurance perspective

In the face of the corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,it is essential to stabilize the security of urban“shopping baskets”.Through a survey and interviews with 46 agricultural cooperatives in Shanghai,this paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and offers suggestions on agricultural insurance.The research results show that:(1)the pandemic has impacted almost all stages of the vegetable supply chain but has had a greater impact on the sales stage;(2)the market risks of vegetable production have increased significantly,and the gap between the field price and the market price has widened.The sales price difference between traditional channels and e-commerce is notable;(3)farmers’incomes have generally declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic,and traditional small-scale farmers have suffered more losses;and(4)agricultural insurance plays an important role in stabilizing the supply of vegetables to the city.To minimize the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and to stabilize both urban“shopping baskets”and farmers’incomes,it is necessary to further improve agricultural insurance,especially to provide insurance against market risks.

The Development Model of Agricultural Insurance in Anhui Province

The agricultural economy in Anhui Province is developing so fast,but farmers are severely affected by the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. The current agricultural insurance mode is not suitable,therefore,the research on agricultural insurance modes of Anhui Province helps to promote the steady development of the agricultural production. Starting from situation of agricultural insurance in Anhui Province,learning from both experience of foreign country and the latest successful domestic modes,we try to put forward agricultural insurance mode framework which is suitable for Anhui Province. Based on the actual situation of Anhui Province,it is necessary to adopt the mode of government leading combined with agricultural mutual aid rather than copy the existing mode.

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Disaster Degree

Agricultural insurance is an important system of rural financial support for agricultural development.Based on the analysis of agricultural insurance improving farmers'anti-risk ability and reducing the damage,the dynamic relationship is discussed with the adoption of error correction model and the data of Guangdong province between 1997 and 2010.The result shows that the promotion of agricultural insurance depth is beneficial to reducing agricultural damage degree and there exists long-term equilibrium relationship.More precisely,agricultural insurance depth is the Granger reason of agricultural damage degree while the reverse relationship has not been supported yet.Based on the empirical analysis,this paper discusses the characteristics and foundation of agricultural production as well as market characteristics of agricultural insurance to further explore the necessity of financial support.

Review of Agricultural Insurance Development in the New Period in China

Agricultural insurance is a great support for agricultural modernization in the new period. It plays a role of " stabilizer" in consecutive increase of yield and constant increase of farmers' income. This paper elaborated current situation of agricultural insurance development in China in the new period,analyzed existing problems,and came up with pertinent recommendations.

Bootstrap Simulation Study on Cooperation between Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Credit

The economic compensation function of agricultural insurance can reduce the credit default risk of farmers. Therefore,the cooperative development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit is an inevitable trend for the development of rural financial services. In this paper,the annual time series data of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in 1994-2013 were used to carry out bootstrap simulation based Granger causality test and make the impulse response analysis. Results indicate that based on the Granger causality test of the whole samples( 1994-2013),there is no Granger causality relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit; based on the test of sub-samples( 2002-2013),there is a two-way Granger causality relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,the rapid development of agricultural insurance brings about structural changes in agricultural credit; agricultural credit has a positive effect on agricultural insurance,and agricultural insurance has a greater effect on agricultural credit. Finally,it came up with policy recommendations for the cooperative development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit.

Theory and Model of Agricultural Insurance Subsidy

The issue of agricultural insurance subsidy is discussed in this paper aiming to make it provided more rationally and sci- entifically. It is started with the connection between agricultural insurance and financial subsidy. It is really necessary and crucial to implement the financial insurance due to the bad operational performance, especially in the developing countries. But the sub- sidy should be provided more rationally because financial subsidy has lots of negative effects. A model in competitive insurance markets developed by Ahsan et al (1982) and a farmers' decision model are developed to solve the optimal subsidized rate. Finally, the equation is got to calculate it. But a quantitative subsidized rate is not made here because the calculation should be under some restricted conditions, which are always absent in the devel- oping countries. So the government should provide some subsidy for the ex ante research and preparation to get the scientific prob- ability and premium rate.

Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweave- ment of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.In recent years,the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits.This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies,thereby keeping the sustainable development of agri- cultural companies.

China's Agricultural Insurance is Catching Up

China’s agricultural insurance premium,which experienced a sharp annual increase of27.4%to RMB30.7 billion,only represented about0.5%of Chinese agricultural GDP in2013.China is one of the largest agricultural economies globally.According to the Statistics Reoort for 2013published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in February 2014and data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,by the end of 2013,China’s cereal,cotton,meat and aquatic production reached 601.9 million tons,6.3 million tons,85.4 million tons and 61.7 million tons,representing 23%,25%,28%and37%of the world’s annual production respectively.As of the end of 2013,the number of people employed by the agricultural sector was approximately241.7 million,or 31.4%of China’s total work force.China is among the few countries most affected by natural disasters to which agricultural sector is particularly venerable.

Risk preferences and the low-carbon agricultural technology adoption:Evidence from rice production in China

Climate change which is mainly caused by carbon emissions is a global problem affecting the economic development and well-being of human society.Low-carbon agriculture is of particular significance in slowing down global warming and reaching the goal of“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”.Therefore,taking straw incorporation as an example,this paper aims to investigate the impact of risk preferences on farmers’low-carbon agricultural technology(LCAT)adoption.Based on a two-phase micro-survey data of 1038 rice farmers in Jiangsu,Jiangxi,and Hunan provinces,this paper uses experimental economics methods to measure farmers’risk aversion and loss aversion to obtain the real risk preferences information of the farmers.We also explore the data to examine the actual LCAT adoption behavior of farmers.The results revealed that both risk aversion and loss aversion significantly inhibit farmers’LCAT adoption:more risk-averse or more loss-averse farmers are less likely to adopt LCAT.It is further found that crop insurance,farm scale and governmental regulations can alleviate the negative impact of risk aversion and loss aversion on farmers’LCAT adoption.Therefore,we propose that local governments need to promote low-carbon agricultural development by propagating the benefits of LCAT,extending crop insurance,promoting appropriate scale operations,and strengthening governmental regulations to promote farmers’LCAT adoption.