The pursuit of human needs and demands is placing more pressure on land resources than ever before. The challenge of feeding 7 billion people is increasingly competing with rising demands for materials and biofuels. D...The pursuit of human needs and demands is placing more pressure on land resources than ever before. The challenge of feeding 7 billion people is increasingly competing with rising demands for materials and biofuels. Deforestation and land degradation are among the pressing outcomes of these trends. Drivers of environmental change—including population growth, economic activity, consumption, urbanization, trade, conflict, and governance—clearly play a role in aggravating or mitigating these pressures on land. Despite advances in understanding causality in complex systems, navigating the interactions between these drivers remains a major challenge. This paper analyzes and visualizes the relationships between multiple, interacting drivers of environmental change and specific pressures on land-based ecosystems. Drawing on experience from the development of the Drivers and Land chapters of the UN Environment Programme’s Fifth Global Environment Outlook report (GEO-5), we use a series of Kiviat diagrams to illustrate the relative influence of key drivers on selected pressures on land. When individual diagrams are overlaid, patterns of influence emerge that can provide insight into where policy responses might best be targeted. We propose that, subject to some limitations, the Kiviat exercise can provide an accessible and potentially valuable “knowledge-intermediary” tool to help link science-based information to policy action.展开更多
Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-baniza...Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-banization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system (SEA-ITS) is composed of "3S" (RS, GIS and GPS), environmental expert system and environmental model system, coupling with appropriate SEA working process closely. In this paper, the structure and components of SEA-ITS are analyzed based on Chinese characteristics, meanwhile methods to fulfill the following system functions are discussed: urbanization SEA in-quiring, analysis, discrimination, assessment, prediction, decision-making and output. Moreover, methods and tech-nologies employed in different urbanization SEA hierarchies are summarized. As a case study, urbanization SEA-ITS is applied in Changchun City to solving complex real problems. Methods such as system dynamics and grey cluster are adopted to achieve the environmental impact assessment on the eco-industrial system planning. It is revealed that the system designed is capable of reflecting the dynamic behavior of eco-industrial system under different sce-narios, meanwhile accomplishing strategy optimization and supplying scientific reference. The 4th strategy, namely concerning on economy increase and its interaction with science, technology and environment progress, would have the best efficiency. Further, more attention should be paid to the secondary development of integration techniques and function modification system of urbanization SEA-ITS.展开更多
Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the litera...Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the literature, crop bio-energy will lead to substantial pressure to increase deforestation. This paper consequently explores using woody biomass for bioenergy. The paper combines the IAM WITCH with a global dynamic forestry model GTM to determine the optimal size of the woody biomass market, the effects on the timber market, and the resulting forestland under two alternative mitigation strategies. This paper predicts that moving from a moderate to a stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand for woody biomass from 3.7 to 5.2 billion m3/yr, increasing forestland by 1049 to 1890 million ha, and shrinking farmland by 748 to 1550 million ha. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use.展开更多
Blue economic zone is a typical regional economic mode,which is specially characterized by marine economy and has multiple economic types coexisting and interacting through integrating marine and land resources.With t...Blue economic zone is a typical regional economic mode,which is specially characterized by marine economy and has multiple economic types coexisting and interacting through integrating marine and land resources.With the continuous progress of science and technology,marine economy as a strategy to promote economic development is approved in many countries.The Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone(BSPEZ) reflects the local demands of economic development,and its upgrading and enhancing competitiveness of the industrial structure is also of obvious significance for enhancement of the development of eastern China and the national marine economy.This paper thinks that the BSPEZ has many advantages,such as unique marine economy,growing high-tech industries,more and more mature industrial system,advancing technological innovation,and outstanding big enterprises,large projects and regional bright brands,but it is also facing problems of low industry cluster,similar industrial structure with each other,still weak technological innovation.So we put forwards the basic approaches to upgrade and enhance the industrial structure:transforming and upgrading the traditional marine industries with advantages,accelerating the development of new marine industries and high-tech industries,integrating marine and land industry,and promoting the rational system arrangements.展开更多
全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟...全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示:1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。展开更多
文摘The pursuit of human needs and demands is placing more pressure on land resources than ever before. The challenge of feeding 7 billion people is increasingly competing with rising demands for materials and biofuels. Deforestation and land degradation are among the pressing outcomes of these trends. Drivers of environmental change—including population growth, economic activity, consumption, urbanization, trade, conflict, and governance—clearly play a role in aggravating or mitigating these pressures on land. Despite advances in understanding causality in complex systems, navigating the interactions between these drivers remains a major challenge. This paper analyzes and visualizes the relationships between multiple, interacting drivers of environmental change and specific pressures on land-based ecosystems. Drawing on experience from the development of the Drivers and Land chapters of the UN Environment Programme’s Fifth Global Environment Outlook report (GEO-5), we use a series of Kiviat diagrams to illustrate the relative influence of key drivers on selected pressures on land. When individual diagrams are overlaid, patterns of influence emerge that can provide insight into where policy responses might best be targeted. We propose that, subject to some limitations, the Kiviat exercise can provide an accessible and potentially valuable “knowledge-intermediary” tool to help link science-based information to policy action.
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2005CB724207)
文摘Urbanization strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is an effective instrument to enhance the harmo-nious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Ur-banization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system (SEA-ITS) is composed of "3S" (RS, GIS and GPS), environmental expert system and environmental model system, coupling with appropriate SEA working process closely. In this paper, the structure and components of SEA-ITS are analyzed based on Chinese characteristics, meanwhile methods to fulfill the following system functions are discussed: urbanization SEA in-quiring, analysis, discrimination, assessment, prediction, decision-making and output. Moreover, methods and tech-nologies employed in different urbanization SEA hierarchies are summarized. As a case study, urbanization SEA-ITS is applied in Changchun City to solving complex real problems. Methods such as system dynamics and grey cluster are adopted to achieve the environmental impact assessment on the eco-industrial system planning. It is revealed that the system designed is capable of reflecting the dynamic behavior of eco-industrial system under different sce-narios, meanwhile accomplishing strategy optimization and supplying scientific reference. The 4th strategy, namely concerning on economy increase and its interaction with science, technology and environment progress, would have the best efficiency. Further, more attention should be paid to the secondary development of integration techniques and function modification system of urbanization SEA-ITS.
文摘Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the literature, crop bio-energy will lead to substantial pressure to increase deforestation. This paper consequently explores using woody biomass for bioenergy. The paper combines the IAM WITCH with a global dynamic forestry model GTM to determine the optimal size of the woody biomass market, the effects on the timber market, and the resulting forestland under two alternative mitigation strategies. This paper predicts that moving from a moderate to a stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand for woody biomass from 3.7 to 5.2 billion m3/yr, increasing forestland by 1049 to 1890 million ha, and shrinking farmland by 748 to 1550 million ha. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use.
文摘Blue economic zone is a typical regional economic mode,which is specially characterized by marine economy and has multiple economic types coexisting and interacting through integrating marine and land resources.With the continuous progress of science and technology,marine economy as a strategy to promote economic development is approved in many countries.The Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone(BSPEZ) reflects the local demands of economic development,and its upgrading and enhancing competitiveness of the industrial structure is also of obvious significance for enhancement of the development of eastern China and the national marine economy.This paper thinks that the BSPEZ has many advantages,such as unique marine economy,growing high-tech industries,more and more mature industrial system,advancing technological innovation,and outstanding big enterprises,large projects and regional bright brands,but it is also facing problems of low industry cluster,similar industrial structure with each other,still weak technological innovation.So we put forwards the basic approaches to upgrade and enhance the industrial structure:transforming and upgrading the traditional marine industries with advantages,accelerating the development of new marine industries and high-tech industries,integrating marine and land industry,and promoting the rational system arrangements.
文摘全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示:1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。
