Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

An iterative approach to an integrated land use and transportation planning tool for small urban areas

There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.

Spatially Heterogeneous Response of Carbon Storage to Land Use Changes in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in advancing carbon neutrality. Better understanding of how land use changes affect carbon storage in urban agglomeration will provide valuable guidance for policymakers in developing effective regional conservation policies. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration(PRDUA) in China as an example, we examined the heterogeneous response of carbon storage to land use changes in 1990–2018 from a combined view of administrative units and physical entities. The results indicate that the primary change in land use was due to the expansion of construction land(5897.16 km2). The carbon storage in PRDUA decreased from 767.34 Tg C in 1990 to 725.42 Tg C in 2018 with a spatial pattern of high wings and the low middle. The carbon storage loss was largely attributed to construction land expansion(55.74%), followed by forest degradation(54.81%). Changes in carbon storage showed significant divergences in different sized cities and hierarchical boundaries. The coefficients of geographically weighted regression(GWR) reveal that the alteration in carbon storage in Guangzhou City was more responsive to changes in construction land(-0.11) compared to other cities, while that in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the dynamics of forest land(8.32). The change in carbon storage was primarily influenced by the conversion of farmland within urban extent(5.05) and the degradation of forest land in rural areas(5.82). Carbon storage changes were less sensitive to the expansion of construction land in the urban center, urban built-up area, and ex-urban built-up area, with the corresponding GWR coefficients of 0.19, 0.04, and 0.02. This study necessitates the differentiated protection strategies of carbon storage in urban agglomerations.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

The Land-Use Consequences of Woody Biomass with More Stringent Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the literature, crop bio-energy will lead to substantial pressure to increase deforestation. This paper consequently explores using woody biomass for bioenergy. The paper combines the IAM WITCH with a global dynamic forestry model GTM to determine the optimal size of the woody biomass market, the effects on the timber market, and the resulting forestland under two alternative mitigation strategies. This paper predicts that moving from a moderate to a stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand for woody biomass from 3.7 to 5.2 billion m3/yr, increasing forestland by 1049 to 1890 million ha, and shrinking farmland by 748 to 1550 million ha. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

With rapid economic development and urba- nization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model （GLOBFOOD） and regional spatial allocation model （CLUE）. The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge abot^t the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socio- economic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

疫情不同阶段西部陆海新通道市场分担率变化研究

为探究全球新冠肺炎疫情波动变化背景下西部陆海新通道对解决中欧集装箱货运问题的影响,本文利用中欧集装箱运输数据,以集装箱海运班轮运输路线、中欧班列运输路线和西部陆海新通道路线为选择肢,分别构建多项式Logit模型和混合Logit模型进行对比分析,探索疫情3个阶段下托运人对中欧集装箱运输的路线选择决策机制;并在疫情不同时期内,估算陆海新通道运输属性的主观值。研究结果表明:托运人对于中欧集装箱运输的路线属性在不同疫情时期内具有不同的个体异质性,货物的时间价值随疫情严峻性增加而稳步增加,延迟时间价值增加幅度先快后慢。在疫情松弛期,陆海新通道的市场分担率主要受自身运输费用和班轮的运输时间影响;疫情平稳期,主要受自身和班轮运输时间影响;疫情严峻期,主要受自身延迟时间影响。疫情时期,陆海新通道在西部省市承担的集装箱货运量比例总体持续增长且增速较快;在疫情平稳期,中西南部地区增速较快;疫情严峻期,西北部地区增加明显。

Development of land use transitions research in China

With the introduction of the concept of land use transition into China,related researches have been carried out extensively in the past two decades,which enrich the knowledge of land system science.This paper describes the development of research on land use transitions in China from the perspectives of conceptual connotations,theoretical model,research methods,and research progress and prospects.With the in-depth investigation of land use transitions,the concept and connotations of land use morphology are developed and encapsulated as two kinds,i.e.,dominant morphology and recessive morphology.The dominant morphology refers to the land use structure of a certain region over a certain period of time,with features such as the quantity and spatial pattern of land use types.While the recessive morphology includes the land use features in the aspects of quality,property rights,management mode,input,output and function.Accordingly,the concept of land use transition is further developed,and the theoretical model of regional land use transitions is established.Thereafter,three innovative integrated approaches to study land use transitions are put forward,i.e.,multidisciplinary research framework for recessive land use transition,transect and horizontal comparison.To date,there have been 62 Ph.D.and 166 M.S.dissertations on the topic of"land use transition"in China.During 2002–2019,the National Natural Science Foundation of China has funded 48 research programs on the theme of"land use transition".As such,the Chinese scholars have adapted the concept derived from western literature to the situations and experiences in China.

The consequences of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses on the terrestrial carbon

The IPCC SRES narratives were implemented in IMAGE 2.2 to evaluate thefuture condition of the climate system (including the biosphere). A series of scenario experiments was used to assess possible ranges in emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, climate change and impacts. These experiments focussed on the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The experiments show that the SRES narratives dominate human emissions and not natural processes. In contrary, atmospheric CO2 concentration strongly differs between the experiments. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations range for A1B from 714 to 1009 ppmv CO2 in 2100. The spread of this range is comparable with the full SRES range as implemented in IMAGE 2.2 (515-895 μmol/mol CO2). The most important negative and positive feedback processes in IMAGE 2.2 on the build-up of CO2 concentrations are CO2 fertilisation and soil respiration respectively. Indirect effects of these processes furtherchange land-use patterns, deforestation rates and alter the natural C fluxes. The cumulative effects of these changes have a pronounced influence on the final CO2 concentrations. Our scenario experiments highlight the importance of a proper parameterisation of feedback processes, C-cycle and land use in determining the future states of the climate system.

Adapting node-place model to predict and monitor COVID-19 footprints and transmission risks

The node-place model has been widely used to classify and evaluate transit stations,which sheds light on individuals’travel behaviors and supports urban planning through effectively integrating land use and transportation development.This study adapts this model to investigate whether and how node,place,and mobility would be associated with the transmission risks and presences of the local COVID-19 cases in a city.Moreover,the unique metric drawn from detailed visit history of the infected,i.e.,the COVID-19 footprints,is proposed and exploited.This study then empirically uses the adapted model to examine the station-level factors affecting the local COVID-19 footprints.The model accounts for traditional measures of the node and place as well as actual human mobility patterns associated with the node and place.It finds that stations with high node,place,and human mobility indices normally have more COVID-19 footprints in proximity.A multivariate regression is fitted to see whether and to what degree different indices and indicators can predict the COVID-19 footprints.The results indicate that many of the place,node,and human mobility indicators significantly impact the concentration of COVID-19 footprints.These are useful for policy-makers to predict and monitor hotspots for COVID-19 and other pandemics’transmission.

交通规划与土地利用规划的一体化模型综述

交通规划与土地利用二者的互动关系以及一体化研究已成为近年来学者持续研究及探索的问题,尤其是一体化模型的建立及仿真受到越来越多的关注。从交通规划与土地利用的互动关系入手,对交通规划与土地利用一体化仿真模型的基本原理进行归纳研究,并依据建模方法对其进行分类和综述。通过对交通规划和土地利用一体化模型发展轨迹的系统梳理和分析,指出国内一体化模型的研究趋势,有助于学者在建模及实践中建立更符合现实情况的一体化模型。

城市交通与土地利用一体化规划模型

从研究基础和模型建立的理论基础角度对城市交通与土地利用之间的关系进行综合评述,并提出已有四种代表性模型中普遍存在的缺陷.在此基础上,介绍加拿大学者近年来的研究成果,即基于24小时个人行为和活动的非集计动态ILUTE模型.应用2008年北京市居民出行2809份调查样本数据对出行方式选择行为进行模拟.参数估计采用遗传算法和蒙特卡洛模拟法.结果显示:小汽车、公共交通、自行车、步行、出租车以及搭乘等六种出行方式的样本数据观测值与模型预测值的绝对误差百分比分别为0.52%,1.95%,0.77%,0.79%,0.16%,2.29%;模型拟合度达到0.759,精确度较高,能够很好地描述出行者的出行方式选择行为.最后提出对此模型的本土化研究展望.

面向新城的土地利用-交通整体规划建模方法

在城市高质量发展的背景下,大量城市新城的规划缺乏新城与主城协同的土地利用与交通系统的一体化规划,造成众多的不协调问题,如新城与主城间交通走廊拥堵和“鬼城”等。因此,本文基于新城、主城的土地利用与交通系统的交互关系,提出面向新城规划的城市土地利用-交通整体规划模型建模方法。通过为主城与新城分别构建相应的宏观经济预测模块、社会经济活动空间分配模块和空间开发模块,客观地模拟主城与新城各种社会经济活动的空间分布、相应土地及空间开发、交通基础设施建设和交通需求时变等特征,同时兼顾新城与主城开发过程中的社会经济发展目标及土地空间制约条件,针对新城与主城两者之间的交互关系(如客货运输)对交通需求进行一体化预测,实现新城与主城、土地利用与交通系统的整体规划与协同。本文以武汉市长江新城为研究案例,基于相关数据构建面向新城和主城的PECAS(Production-Exchange-Consumption-Allocation-System)土地利用与交通整体规划模型,分析并评价了其2015—2035年的土地利用形态及交通系统的平衡性,评价结果验证了本文建模方法的有效性。

交通运输与土地利用综合模型的连续最优化方法(英文)

提出了关于交通运输与土地利用的综合模型的连续最优化及敏感性分析的基本框架.考虑外生交通费用的土地利用模型的敏感性分析和考虑弹性需求的交通运输网络的敏感性分析过程本是相互独立的,将两者结合为一个综合模型的敏感性分析.将这种敏感性分析方法用于土地利用方案设计和交通运输政策制定的最优化,可以使一定的社会剩余函数最大化.最后,以一个包含拥挤交通网络子模型的住宅分布模型为例对所提出方法进行进一步说明.

城市居民生活能源消费研究进展综述

近十年来中国城市消费领域能耗年增长率已达到7.4%,超过中国总能耗量5.9%的年增长率。随着中国逐渐完成工业化进程,其工业用能将呈现增速放缓甚至总量减少的趋势,而居民生活及交通能源需求将随着人民生活水平提高而稳步增长,最终呈现总量与比重逐渐增加的态势。城市居民活动与其能源消费的定量化分析已成为当前多学科的研究热点。本文以家庭室内和室外直接能源消费作为研究对象,对城市居民生活能耗的影响因素、能源足迹核算方法、时间-室内能耗模拟,及空间-交通-能源耦合模拟等关键问题的研究进展进行综述。研究发现,第一,家庭能源消费属于派生性需求,不同的时间利用方式会产生能源消费水平和结构上的差异,但现有研究较少从时间及活动链分析角度展开。第二,由于家庭预算及时间约束的存在,室内外能源消费行为密切相关,但少有研究对上述两个城市生活部门的能源消费进行整体性分析核算。第三,基于活动的建模方法可以提供一种将居民室内外用能行为进行整合的分析框架。最后对今后该领域的研究开展进行了展望:第一,从活动分析和时间利用视角,建立自下而上的居民室内外用能活动仿真模型,在更小的时间和空间尺度模拟家庭能源需求,识别家庭能耗的主要来源、控制的重点人群、时段和区域,指导能源政策制定;第二,深入剖析能源回弹效应产生的决策机理,以及怎样的政策或政策组合可以有效减少回弹;第三,将社会网络分析引入居民生活能耗研究,更加全面理解影响家庭用能行为的机制,为家庭能源消费管理提供新思路。

城市交通与土地利用一体化发展评价

随着我国城市化进程的持续推进,交通顺畅和土地的集约利用已成为保障城市可持续发展的关键因素。城市交通和土地利用是城市发展政策制定中的重要组成部分,两者之间相互作用:交通带动城市扩张与土地开发,城市空间格局与土地利用形态决定交通的生成和交通模式的分担率。因此,充分认识两者之间的互动关系并提高其一体化程度,对于保障城市可持续发展十分重要。本文基于节点-场所模型,通过建立节点及场所指标体系,考察乌鲁木齐市地铁1号线及BRT的14个站点周围区域交通-土地利用一体化程度,并据此对站点进行分类,从而得到不同站点类型的未来发展建议。

基于整体规划框架的区域综合货运规划建模方法研究

区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系,并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构,构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块,模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下,通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型,实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法,以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例,基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型,分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示,预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%,分担率误差低于1%,验证了本文建模方法的有效性。

高速公路建设用地问题创新模式研究

为解决高速公路建设与土地集约利用之间的矛盾,针对新一轮基础设施投资建设高潮,结合国情对未来建设用地的需求进行探讨,并进一步从现行公路建设用地的法律依据、政策标准进行总结分析。以我国高速公路建设管理模式和工程特点为基础,采用系统分析的方法分别从制度创新、技术创新、管理创新3个方面提出了降低高速公路建设用地的具体措施。最后结论揭示了高速公路建设与土地集约利用之间存在的复杂双向互动关系,提出只有树立高速公路发展与土地集约利用并举的理念,逐步建立起低占地、低费用、高效率的集约型高速公路发展模式,才能保证高速公路建设目标顺利实现。