Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services and driving factors in the Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve of Xinjiang,China

Nature reserves play a significant role in providing ecosystem services and are key sites for biodiversity conservation.The Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve(TBPNR),located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,is an important ecological barrier area in the temperate arid zone.The evaluation of its important ecosystem services is of great significance to improve the management level and ecological protection efficiency of the reserve.In the present study,we assessed the spatiotemporal variations of four ecosystem services(including net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,soil conservation,and habitat quality)in the TBPNR from 2000 to 2020 based on the environmental and social data using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.In addition,the coldspot and hotspot areas of ecosystem services were identified by hotspot analysis,and the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services were analyzed using factor analysis in a geographic detector.During the study period,NPP and soil conservation values in the reserve increased by 48.20%and 25.56%,respectively;conversely,water yield decreased by 16.56%,and there was no significant change in habitat quality.Spatially,both NPP and habitat quality values were higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part,whereas water yield showed an opposite trend.Correlation analysis revealed that NPP showed a synergistic relationship with habitat quality and soil conservation,and exhibited a trade-off relationship with water yield.Water yield and habitat quality also had a trade-off relationship.NPP and habitat quality were affected by annual average temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),respectively,while water yield and soil conservation were more affected by digital elevation model(DEM).Therefore,attention should be paid to the spatial distribution and dynamics of trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in future ecological management.The findings of the present study provide a reference that could facilitate the sustainable utilization of ecosystem services in the typical fragile areas of Northwest China.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution Analysis of Water Yield Services in the Peak-cluster Depression Basins in Southwest of Guangxi,China

Karst environmental issues have become one of the hot spots in contemporary international geological research. The same problem of water shortage is one of the hot spots of global concern. The peak-cluster depression basins in southwest of Guangxi is an important water connotation and ecological barrier areas in the Pearl River Basin of China. Thus, studying the spatial and temporal variations and the influencing factors of its water yield services is critical to achieve the sustainable development of water resources and ecological environmental protection in this region. As such, this paper uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model to assess the spatial and temporal variabilities of water yield services and its trends in the peak-cluster depression basins in southwest of Guangxi from 2000 to 2020. This work also integrates precipitation(Pre), reference evapotranspiration(ET), temperature(Tem), digital elevation model(DEM), slope, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), land use/land cover(LULC) and soil type to reveal the main factors that influence water yield services with the help of Geodetector. Results show that: 1) in time scale,the total annual water yield in the study area show a fluctuating and increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, with a growth rate of 7.3753 × 10^(8)m^(3)/yr, and its multi-year average water yield was 538.07 mm;2) in spatial pattern, with high yield areas mainly distributed in the south of the study area(mainly including Shangsi County, Pingxiang City, Ningming County, Longzhou County and Jingxi County), and low yield areas mainly distributed in Baise City and Nanning City;3) the dominant factor of water yield within karst and non-karst landforms is not necessarily controlled by precipitation, and the explanation degree of DEM factors in karst areas is significantly higher than that in non-karst areas;4) amongst the climatic factors, Pre, ET and Tem are dominant in the spatial pattern of region water yield capacity. among which Pre has the highest explanatory power for the spatial heterogeneity of annual water production, with q values above0.8, and each driver showed a significant interaction on the spatial distribution of water yield, with Pre exhibiting the strongest interaction with LULC.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

A decision framework for identifying models to estimate forest ecosystem services gains from restoration

Restoring degraded forests and agricultural lands has become a global conservation priority. A growing number of tools can quantify ecosystem service tradeoffs associated with forest restoration. This evolving ＂tools landscape＂ presents a dilemma： more tools are available, but selecting appropriate tools has become more challenging. We present a Restoration Ecosystem Service Tool Selector （RESTS） framework that describes key characteristics of 13 ecosystem service assessment tools. Analysts enter information about their decision context, services to be analyzed, and desired outputs. Tools are filtered and presented based on five evaluative criteria： scalability, cost, time requirements, handling of uncertainty, and applicability to benefit-cost analysis. RESTS uses a spreadsheet interface but a web-based interface is planned. Given the rapid evolution of ecosystem services science, RESTS provides an adaptable framework to guide forest restoration decision makers toward tools that can help quantify ecosystem services in support of restoration.

Spatio-temporal Changes in Water Conservation Ecosystem Service During 1990–2019 in the Tumen River Basin, Northeast China

The water conservation(WC) function of ecosystems is related to regional ecological security and the sustainable development of water resources, and the assessment of WC and its influencing factors is crucial for ecological and water resource management.The Tumen River Basin(TRB) is located in the core of the Northeast Asian ecological network and has been experiencing severe ecological crises and water shortages in recent years due to climate change and human activities. However, these crises have not been fully revealed to the extent that corresponding scientific measures are lacking. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and drivers of WC in the TRB from 1990 to 2019 based on the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model. The results showed that: 1) under the combined effect of nature and socioeconomics, the WC depth of the TRB has slowly increased at a rate of 0.11 mm/yr in the past 30 years, with an average WC depth of 36.14 mm. 2) The main driving factor of the spatial variation in WC is precipitation, there is a significant interaction between precipitation and velocity, the interaction between each factor is higher than the contribution of a single factor, and the interactions between factors all have nonlinear enhancement and two-factor enhancement. 3) Among the seven counties and municipalities in the study area, the southern part of Helong City and the southeastern part of Longjing City are extremely important areas for WC(> 75 mm), and they should be regarded as regional water resources and ecological priority protection areas. It is foreseen that under extreme climate conditions in the future, the WC of the watershed is under great potential threat, and protection measures such as afforestation and forestation should begin immediately. Furthermore, the great interannual fluctuations in WC depth may place more stringent requirements on the choice of time scales in the ecosystem service assessment process.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

基于InVEST模型的武夷山市生境质量时空分析

为了探求快速城市化背景下城市生境质量对生态协调发展的影响,基于InVEST模型对武夷山地区生境质量时空演变进行分析。结果表明,2010-2020年,生境质量为高级的地区由95.43%下降到88.92%,中等生境质量所占的面积由3.67%升到9.54%,生境退化区域具有显著的空间聚集性特点。武夷山生境质量总体保持相对较好,映射出近年来生态保护措施的成效较好。研究结果对于武夷山地区在权衡发展和保护之间寻求最优自然资源管理和经济发展模式提供理论决策依据。

渤海湾滨海地区生态安全屏障功能评价:生态系统服务供需视角

研究以渤海湾为生态系统服务需求区,以渤海湾滨海地区为生态系统服务供给区,从生态系统服务供需的视角,以水资源、水环境、水生态为问题与目标维度构建了渤海湾滨海地区生态安全屏障功能评价体系。根据渤海湾生态问题,截污净化、产水量和生境质量3类指标被筛选为生态安全屏障功能的关键指标,并分别使用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs,InVEST)模型中的营养物迁移模型、产水量模型和生境质量模型进行评价。此外,对2000—2020年渤海湾滨海地区土地利用格局和截污净化、产水量、生境质量3类生态安全屏障功能指标的时空变化进行评价,并分析了生态安全屏障功能时空演变的驱动因素。研究的主要结果如下:(1)在20 a间渤海湾滨海地区,耕地、未利用地面积减少而建设用地和湿地面积增加,氮磷截留率和产水量增加,但生境质量下降。(2)渤海湾滨海地区综合生态安全屏障功能供给良好,但近年来呈下降趋势。(3)人类活动引起的土地利用变化是影响渤海湾滨海地区生态安全屏障功能时空演变的主要驱动力。研究对渤海湾滨海地区生态安全屏障功能评价方法及结果不仅可指导本区域生态建设,同时对其他区域的生态安全屏障功能评价具有借鉴意义。

基于InVEST模型的渭河流域生境质量评估

基于生态系统服务评估与权衡模型和ArcGIS软件探索2000-2020年渭河流域生境质量的时空变化,利用地形分布指数分析生境质量的地形梯度效应.结果表明, 20 a间,研究区土地利用变化主要包括耕地向建设用地和草地的转移,以及草地向耕地和林地的转移,不同类型之间的转移是影响局部生境质量变化的主要因素;生境质量的空间分布以中等生境为主,占比约57%,主要分布在关中城市群外围和西北部.低等生境占比约5%,但面积增长最快,增幅达到105.80%,原因是关中城市群的大面积扩张;研究区生境质量空间分布存在一定的正相关性,且聚集程度增加1.15%,局部自相关类型以高-高和低-低集聚为主,高-高集聚分布在研究区东北部黄土高原和南部秦岭北坡,低-低集聚分布在关中城市群;2020年生境质量具有显著的地形梯度效应,表现在生境质量等级随着地形梯度级别的增加而增加.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

基于i-Tree模型的行道树生态系统服务价值

行道树作为街道绿化系统的骨架,支撑着城市生态系统服务功能的正常运转。以武汉市临江大道中段为例,基于i-Tree构建行道树生态系统服务的综合评议模型,通过以货币值作为统一衡量标准分析演算研究地27种常见行道树及街道整体生态系统服务价值,旨在为行道树树种选择优化,以及街道景观与生态环境的提升提供参考。结果表明:1)在街道的植景搭配中,整体生态系统服务价值排序为:美学价值>能源节省价值>雨水截留价值>空气净化价值>生态固碳价值。2)研究地全部行道树年生态系统服务价值约131.8万元,平均1 km行道树年生态系统服务价值可达28.65万元,单株行道树年平均生态系统服务价值可达307.23元。3)行道树具有可观的生态系统服务价值,同时也存在明显种间差异,其中能源节省、美学价值和雨水截留价值在演算树种中价值量较高,空气净化和生态固碳价值量较低。因此,在街道行道树配置过程中,应将能源节省、美学价值和雨水截留价值作为首要参考因素,再结合街道属性综合考虑树种选择与应用,以构建功能全面的城市行道树生态系统服务结构,提高行道树整体的生态系统服务价值。

无定河流域防风固沙服务流动模拟

无定河流域包括毛乌素沙漠部分区域,土壤风蚀显著,研究防风固沙服务有利于保持土壤、保护生态环境与维持良好的人地关系。利用RWEQ(Revised Wind Erosion Equation)模型与HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single-Particle Langrangian Integrated Trajectory Model)模型模拟无定河流域2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年以及2018年的土壤风蚀量以及防风固沙服务流的时空变化,并分析受益人口与real GDP。结果表明:(1)2000年至2018年无定河流域风蚀总量与防风固沙量呈“降低-增加-降低”的波动变化整体下降的趋势,在空间分布上,无定河流域西部及西北部沙地土壤风蚀较为剧烈,东部及东南部的旱地土壤风蚀较为缓和;(2)2000年至2018年防风固沙服务流动路径模拟总数分别为494条、504条、537条、482条与437条,整体上呈降低的趋势,受益区主要分布于我国的中部及东部地区以及俄罗斯、韩国等周边国家;(3)2000年至2018年防风固沙服务全国受益人口与受益real GDP均占据总数一定比例;(4)无定河流域防风固沙服务物质流以陕西北部、山西西部地区为中心呈圈层状递减,影响范围扩散到了东亚和东南亚等国家和地区。结果模拟了无定河流域土壤风蚀以及防风固沙服务流,为服务供给区和受益区之间的生态补偿提供科学依据,对植被恢复与防风固沙具有一定的参考作用,可为其他流域的防风固沙服务流动模拟和整个三北地区的防风固沙生态工程的规划、建设、评估提供重要的科学参考。

浙闽山地丘陵地区地域景观时空演变与多情景模拟预测——基于PLUS-ESV模型分析

聚焦浙闽地区地域景观既有研究对内陆地区关注不足,且中尺度县域研究与定量研究相对较少的问题,文章以福建沙县为对象,基于卫星遥感数据、自然与社会开源数据、统计年鉴等,运用景观格局指数、PLUS模型、生态系统服务价值(ESV)评估等方法,模拟预测2030年3个发展情景,以揭示1990年来地域景观空间格局及ESV的时空演变,为以沙县为代表的浙闽内陆人居环境可持续发展提供有力支撑。结果表明:1)1990-2020年,林地与耕地此消彼长,建设用地显著增长。2)1990-2020年,景观破碎度、复杂度、离散性及异质性增加,景观优势斑块的连通性与聚合度下降;ESV加速下降,较高及以上价值区向中及以下价值区加速转化。3)2030年,生态保护情景下的总体景观破碎度最低、ESV最高。综上可知,生态保护情景能最大化保留沙县山水林田城乡一体的地域景观特征,也最符合地区“生态宜居”“生活幸福”等高质量发展要求。

Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China

Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.

Spatially Heterogeneous Response of Carbon Storage to Land Use Changes in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in advancing carbon neutrality. Better understanding of how land use changes affect carbon storage in urban agglomeration will provide valuable guidance for policymakers in developing effective regional conservation policies. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration(PRDUA) in China as an example, we examined the heterogeneous response of carbon storage to land use changes in 1990–2018 from a combined view of administrative units and physical entities. The results indicate that the primary change in land use was due to the expansion of construction land(5897.16 km2). The carbon storage in PRDUA decreased from 767.34 Tg C in 1990 to 725.42 Tg C in 2018 with a spatial pattern of high wings and the low middle. The carbon storage loss was largely attributed to construction land expansion(55.74%), followed by forest degradation(54.81%). Changes in carbon storage showed significant divergences in different sized cities and hierarchical boundaries. The coefficients of geographically weighted regression(GWR) reveal that the alteration in carbon storage in Guangzhou City was more responsive to changes in construction land(-0.11) compared to other cities, while that in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the dynamics of forest land(8.32). The change in carbon storage was primarily influenced by the conversion of farmland within urban extent(5.05) and the degradation of forest land in rural areas(5.82). Carbon storage changes were less sensitive to the expansion of construction land in the urban center, urban built-up area, and ex-urban built-up area, with the corresponding GWR coefficients of 0.19, 0.04, and 0.02. This study necessitates the differentiated protection strategies of carbon storage in urban agglomerations.

基于MSPA和InVEST模型的淮河源生态网络构建

生境斑块破碎及孤岛化威胁着区域生态安全与可持续发展,构建生态网络,提高生态斑块间景观连通性对生物多样性保护及生态服务功能维系具有重要意义。以淮河源为研究区,结合形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)和生态系统服务评估与权衡(InVEST)模型筛选生态源地,基于最小累积阻力模型(MCR)构建阻力面,识别区域生态廊道,叠加现有结构性廊道后形成生态网络。最后通过景观连接性指数、重力模型分别对源地和廊道分级并提出规划建议。结果表明:(1)淮河源地区总体生态状况较好,但生境质量空间分布不均。生境质量高值区集中在西、南部山区丘陵地带,而东、北部平原地区的生境质量较差。(2)淮河源生态源地共68处,生态廊道191条,其中重要生态源地3处,重要廊道97条。源地呈现西、南部大而密,东、北部少而稀的格局,生态廊道则是东、北部地区相对较长。(3)未来还需增设23处踏脚石、修复155处生态断裂点以优化淮河源生态网络。研究结果可为区域生态建设及国土空间生态修复提供决策参考。