Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Typical Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Responses to Driving Factors in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Upper Yellow River,China

The identification of dominant driving factors for different ecosystem services(ESs)is crucial for ecological conservation and sustainable development.However,the spatial heterogeneity of the dominant driving factors affecting various ESs has not been adequately elucidated,particularly in ecologically fragile regions.This study employed the integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs(InVEST)model to evaluate four ESs,namely,water yield(WY),soil conservation(SC),habitat quality(HQ),and carbon storage(CS),and then to identify the dominant driving factors of spatiotemporal differentiation of ES and further to characterize the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the dominant driving factors in the eco-fragile areas of the upper Yellow River,China from 2000 to 2020.The results demonstrated that WY exhibited northeast-high and northwest-low patterns in the upper Yellow River region,while high values of SC and CS were distributed in central forested areas and a high value of HQ was distributed in vast grassland areas.The CS,WY,and SC exhibited decreasing trends over time.The most critical factors affecting WY,SC,HQ,and CS were the actual evapotranspiration,precipitation,slope,and normalized difference vegetation index,respectively.In addition,the effects of different factors on various ESs exhibited spatial heterogeneity.These results could provide spatial decision support for eco-protection and rehabilitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services and driving factors in the Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve of Xinjiang,China

Nature reserves play a significant role in providing ecosystem services and are key sites for biodiversity conservation.The Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve(TBPNR),located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,is an important ecological barrier area in the temperate arid zone.The evaluation of its important ecosystem services is of great significance to improve the management level and ecological protection efficiency of the reserve.In the present study,we assessed the spatiotemporal variations of four ecosystem services(including net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,soil conservation,and habitat quality)in the TBPNR from 2000 to 2020 based on the environmental and social data using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.In addition,the coldspot and hotspot areas of ecosystem services were identified by hotspot analysis,and the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services were analyzed using factor analysis in a geographic detector.During the study period,NPP and soil conservation values in the reserve increased by 48.20%and 25.56%,respectively;conversely,water yield decreased by 16.56%,and there was no significant change in habitat quality.Spatially,both NPP and habitat quality values were higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part,whereas water yield showed an opposite trend.Correlation analysis revealed that NPP showed a synergistic relationship with habitat quality and soil conservation,and exhibited a trade-off relationship with water yield.Water yield and habitat quality also had a trade-off relationship.NPP and habitat quality were affected by annual average temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),respectively,while water yield and soil conservation were more affected by digital elevation model(DEM).Therefore,attention should be paid to the spatial distribution and dynamics of trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in future ecological management.The findings of the present study provide a reference that could facilitate the sustainable utilization of ecosystem services in the typical fragile areas of Northwest China.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Future Scenario Simulation of the Trade-offs and Synergies of Mountain Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Dabie Mountains Area, China

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in supporting regional sustainable development and improving local ecological environments. However, economic development in mountainous areas has long been lagging, and multiple conflicts related to resource assurance, ecological protection, and economic development have emerged. An accurate grasp of the current status and evolutionary trends of mountain ecosystems is essential to enhance the overall benefits of ecosystem services and maintain regional ecological security. Based on the In VEST(Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ES) in the Dabie Mountains Area(DMA) of eastern China. The Markov-PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation of the area's future development. Water yield(WY) and soil conservation(SC) had overall increasing trends during 2000-2020, carbon storage(CS)decreased overall but slowed with time, and habitat quality(HQ) increased and then decreased. The ecological protection scenario is the best scenario for improving ES in the DMA by 2030;compared to 2020, the total WY would decrease by 3.77 × 10^(8) m^(3), SC would increase by 0.65 × 10^(6) t, CS would increase by 1.33 × 10^(6) t, and HQ would increase by 0.06%. The comprehensive development scenario is the second-most effective scenario for ecological improvement, while the natural development scenario did not have a significant effect. However, as the comprehensive development scenario considers both environmental protection and economic development, which are both vital for the sustainable development of the mountainous areas, this scenario is considered the most suitable path for future development. There are trade-offs between WY, CS, and HQ, while there are synergies between SC, CS, and HQ. Spatially, the DMA's central core district is the main strong synergistic area, the marginal zone is the weak synergistic area, and trade-offs are mainly distributed in the transition zone.

Evaluation and Quantitative Attribution Analysis of Water Yield Services in the Peak-cluster Depression Basins in Southwest of Guangxi,China

Karst environmental issues have become one of the hot spots in contemporary international geological research. The same problem of water shortage is one of the hot spots of global concern. The peak-cluster depression basins in southwest of Guangxi is an important water connotation and ecological barrier areas in the Pearl River Basin of China. Thus, studying the spatial and temporal variations and the influencing factors of its water yield services is critical to achieve the sustainable development of water resources and ecological environmental protection in this region. As such, this paper uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model to assess the spatial and temporal variabilities of water yield services and its trends in the peak-cluster depression basins in southwest of Guangxi from 2000 to 2020. This work also integrates precipitation(Pre), reference evapotranspiration(ET), temperature(Tem), digital elevation model(DEM), slope, normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), land use/land cover(LULC) and soil type to reveal the main factors that influence water yield services with the help of Geodetector. Results show that: 1) in time scale,the total annual water yield in the study area show a fluctuating and increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, with a growth rate of 7.3753 × 10^(8)m^(3)/yr, and its multi-year average water yield was 538.07 mm;2) in spatial pattern, with high yield areas mainly distributed in the south of the study area(mainly including Shangsi County, Pingxiang City, Ningming County, Longzhou County and Jingxi County), and low yield areas mainly distributed in Baise City and Nanning City;3) the dominant factor of water yield within karst and non-karst landforms is not necessarily controlled by precipitation, and the explanation degree of DEM factors in karst areas is significantly higher than that in non-karst areas;4) amongst the climatic factors, Pre, ET and Tem are dominant in the spatial pattern of region water yield capacity. among which Pre has the highest explanatory power for the spatial heterogeneity of annual water production, with q values above0.8, and each driver showed a significant interaction on the spatial distribution of water yield, with Pre exhibiting the strongest interaction with LULC.

Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China

Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.

Spatially Heterogeneous Response of Carbon Storage to Land Use Changes in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in advancing carbon neutrality. Better understanding of how land use changes affect carbon storage in urban agglomeration will provide valuable guidance for policymakers in developing effective regional conservation policies. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration(PRDUA) in China as an example, we examined the heterogeneous response of carbon storage to land use changes in 1990–2018 from a combined view of administrative units and physical entities. The results indicate that the primary change in land use was due to the expansion of construction land(5897.16 km2). The carbon storage in PRDUA decreased from 767.34 Tg C in 1990 to 725.42 Tg C in 2018 with a spatial pattern of high wings and the low middle. The carbon storage loss was largely attributed to construction land expansion(55.74%), followed by forest degradation(54.81%). Changes in carbon storage showed significant divergences in different sized cities and hierarchical boundaries. The coefficients of geographically weighted regression(GWR) reveal that the alteration in carbon storage in Guangzhou City was more responsive to changes in construction land(-0.11) compared to other cities, while that in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the dynamics of forest land(8.32). The change in carbon storage was primarily influenced by the conversion of farmland within urban extent(5.05) and the degradation of forest land in rural areas(5.82). Carbon storage changes were less sensitive to the expansion of construction land in the urban center, urban built-up area, and ex-urban built-up area, with the corresponding GWR coefficients of 0.19, 0.04, and 0.02. This study necessitates the differentiated protection strategies of carbon storage in urban agglomerations.

Land use structural optimization of Lilin based on GMOP-ESV

Land use structural optimization is an effective approach to realize land sustainable utilization and allocate limited land resource rationally. Grey multiple objectives programming (GMOP) model based on China terrestrial ecosystem service value was constructed and applied to Lilin town. The result shows that GMOP model has more practical applicability and takes ecologic, social and comprehensive benefit into consideration. There are three programs after optimization. Program Ⅰ is comprehensive improvement and constructing ecological economy type, program Ⅱ is gross cultivated land dynamic balance type and program Ⅲ is compromise type. There are still problems in programs Ⅱ and Ⅲ, such as distribution in disorder, land left unused or abandoned. Based on the benefits above, Program Ⅰ>Program Ⅲ> Program Ⅱ. Program Ⅰ is the optimal case. Its comprehensive benefit is 8.43208×107 RMB yuan/a.

Optimization of Land Use Structure Based on Ecological GREEN Equivalent

Optimization of land use structure consists of economic and social and ecological optimization.Applying the minds of system engineering and principles of ecology,this paper presents such thoughts:the optimal forest_coverage rate calculated according to the reality of a district is set as main standard of ecological rationality in the district;through considering the value of ecosystem services of the land with GREEN equivalent (mainly cultivated land and grassland)and based on the rule,GREEN equivalent,this paper introduces the area conversion between woodland and cultivated land,also between woodland and grassland;this paper establishes a multi_dimension controlling model of optimization of land use structure.In addition,a multi_objective linear programming model for optimization of land use structure is designed.In the end,this paper tests and verifies this theory of ecological optimization,taking Qionghai city in Hainan Province as an example.

A review of spatial targeting methods of payment for ecosystem services

Payments for Ecosystem Services(PES)have been studied extensively over the past decade as an important policy tool for coordinating ecological protection and regional socioeconomic development.One of the greatest challenges of PES implementation is to understand where to pay,i.e.,spatial targeting,which can directly impact PES effectiveness and efficiency.In this study,we conducted a systematic review of spatial targeting methods based on literature analysis using Citespace.Firstly,peer-reviewed articles related to spatial targeting of PES were selected from the Web of Science database based on keywords.Cases applying PES spatial targeting methods were then chosen and analyzed after all articles were read.In total,70%of the chosen cases focused on improving the compensation efficiency of biodiversity or another single environmental objective,whereas the remaining cases focused on coordinating trade-offs between equity and efficiency or multiple environmental objectives.The main PES spatial targeting approaches included cost-benefit analysis,multi-objective optimization,data envelope analysis and other methods aimed at specific issues.Of these,cost-benefit analysis has been most widely applied at different scales,including county,regional and watershed scales.Significant differences among the different PES spatial targeting methods were found,including in PES spatial targeting dimensions,efficiency optimization approaches and method application conditions.The practice of PES spatial targeting requires the selection of appropriate methods based on contextual biophysical and socioeconomic conditions as well as relevant environmental issues.The combined application of PES spatial targeting methods,compensation willingness of stakeholders and dynamic implementation of PES spatial targeting should be considered in future research.

Influence of Human Activity Intensity on Habitat Quality in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,China

Due to long-term human activity interference,the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park(HTRNP)of China has experienced ecological problems such as habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss,and with the expanding scope and intensity of human activity impact,the regional ecological security is facing serious challenges.A scientific assessment of the interrelationship between human activity intensity and habitat quality in the HTRNP is a prerequisite for achieving effective management of ecological disturbances caused by human activities and can also provide scientific strategies for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the land use change data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial and temporal variations and the relationship between habitat quality(HQ)and human activity intensity(HAI)in the HTRNP were explored using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs(InVEST)model.System dynamics and land use simulation models were also combined to conduct multi-scenario simulations of their relationships.The results showed that during 2000–2020,the habitat quality of the HTRNP improved,the intensity of human activities decreased each year,and there was a negative correlation between the two.Second,the system dynamic model could be well coupled with the land use simulation model by combining socio-economic and natural factors.The simulation scenarios of the coupling model showed that the harmonious development(HD)scenario is effective in curbing the increasing trend of human activity intensity and decreasing trend of habitat quality,with a weaker trade-off between the two compared with the baseline development(BD)and investment priority oriented(IPO)scenarios.To maintain the authenticity and integrity of the HTRNP,effective measures such as ecological corridor construction,ecological restoration,and the implementation of ecological compensation policies need to be strengthened.

Spatio-temporal Changes in Water Conservation Ecosystem Service During 1990–2019 in the Tumen River Basin, Northeast China

The water conservation(WC) function of ecosystems is related to regional ecological security and the sustainable development of water resources, and the assessment of WC and its influencing factors is crucial for ecological and water resource management.The Tumen River Basin(TRB) is located in the core of the Northeast Asian ecological network and has been experiencing severe ecological crises and water shortages in recent years due to climate change and human activities. However, these crises have not been fully revealed to the extent that corresponding scientific measures are lacking. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and drivers of WC in the TRB from 1990 to 2019 based on the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model. The results showed that: 1) under the combined effect of nature and socioeconomics, the WC depth of the TRB has slowly increased at a rate of 0.11 mm/yr in the past 30 years, with an average WC depth of 36.14 mm. 2) The main driving factor of the spatial variation in WC is precipitation, there is a significant interaction between precipitation and velocity, the interaction between each factor is higher than the contribution of a single factor, and the interactions between factors all have nonlinear enhancement and two-factor enhancement. 3) Among the seven counties and municipalities in the study area, the southern part of Helong City and the southeastern part of Longjing City are extremely important areas for WC(> 75 mm), and they should be regarded as regional water resources and ecological priority protection areas. It is foreseen that under extreme climate conditions in the future, the WC of the watershed is under great potential threat, and protection measures such as afforestation and forestation should begin immediately. Furthermore, the great interannual fluctuations in WC depth may place more stringent requirements on the choice of time scales in the ecosystem service assessment process.

Integrated Ecosystem Sustainability Approach: Toward a Holistic System of Thinking of Managing Arid Ecosystems

Ecosystems in arid regions play a pivotal role in providing services to vulnerable environments with considerable challenges including extreme temperatures, low precipitation, variable climate change, and infertile soil. The countries of the arid regions are facing more challenges due to land degradation, biodiversity loss, the scarcity of water and food resources, and protecting their inhabitant’s public health. In many cases, policymakers in these countries are aware of the challenges, but they are seeking through scientific communities to develop clear sustainability and resiliency plans. Due to the complexity associated with arid ecosystem services, the scientist communities are still focusing on the development of integrated ecosystem management approaches. Within this line of commitment to our future generation, the paper in hand presents a framework for an Integrated Ecosystem Sustainability Approach (IESA). The core of this nexus approach is to understand and quantify the interlinkages between the ecosystem components, internal and external stresses, and society needs. The paper also identifies the key gaps to be considered when applying the IESA approach to arid ecosystem management plans.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta(IRD)is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia.In this study,we selected the IRD as a typical research area,and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020,and investigated the main driving factors(precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,land use/land cover change,and inflow from the Ili River)of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression,piecewise linear regression,and Pearson's correlation coefficient analyses.The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020,the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution pattern was"high in the east and low in the west";overall,the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly.The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced,although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River.At the same time,the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas,the improvement of vegetation growth,and the increase of regional evapotranspiration,thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation.The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns;the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta.The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash,promoted vegetation restoration,and had a positive effect on the water conservation;however,this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration.These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

人工智能赋能的居家社区养老服务发展及其生态系统优化策略研究

伴随人工智能技术在养老领域的应用,居家社区养老服务呈现协同演化的发展趋势。这既为人口老龄化下破解养老服务供给不足难题带来重大机遇,也给传统居家养老服务模式转型升级提出新的挑战。基于人工智能的技术特征,从“技术创新—要素整合—系统优化”过程维度揭示人工智能赋能的居家养老服务发展路径,并以生态系统理论为分析框架,从“宏观—中观—微观”层面剖析人工智能赋能居家社区养老服务面临规范性与引领性政策缺位、参与主体协作网络不紧密、养老服务供给和需求结构性失衡三个障碍。据此,应从宏观层面完善配套政策,加大对人工智能养老服务的支持力度;从中观层面推进数据汇聚与整合,促进多主体协同联动;从微观层面精准识别老年人需求,提升养老服务供给效率与能力。

考虑不确定性的综合能源供应商日前优化运行策略

综合能源供应商作为多能源供应主体,可以参与市场化交易。为探索综合能源供应商在电力市场环境下新的盈利点,构建了考虑需求响应的多主体互动机制,并充分考虑光伏出力、多元用能需求、市场电价以及需求响应资源潜力的不确定性,采用区间优化方法构建了表征综合能源供应商日前运行优化问题的混合整数线性规划模型,得到综合能源供应商的购能、设备运行以及需求响应资源调用等策略。算例验证结果表明,需求响应机制可以有效降低购电成本,增加综合能源供应商的运行收益。

黄土高原关键带土壤水文过程研究进展与展望

地球关键带是21世纪地球科学的前沿和重点领域之一。黄土约占全球陆地面积的10%,中国的黄土高原是典型的地球关键带之一。土壤水文过程驱动着黄土高原关键带不同尺度的系列生物地球化学循环过程,决定土壤−植被−大气连续体的演化方向与可持续性。基于地球关键带“4M”研究框架,综述了黄土高原关键带土壤水文过程研究的热点与前沿,梳理了不同尺度土壤水文过程的观测方法与技术、模型模拟与填图、深层土壤干化管理等研究进展;在此基础上,围绕黄土高原关键带土壤水资源优化利用与生态系统服务功能提升,提出了全球气候变化和大规模人类活动共同影响下黄土高原关键带土壤水文过程的优化管理对策和建议,展望了黄土高原关键带土壤水文过程研究的未来趋势。以期深化黄土高原关键带研究的科学认知,促进地球关键带科学的发展,为黄土高原自然资源优化管理、山水林田湖草系统治理提供科学参考。

森林生态系统服务多功能性:概念、指标和经营模拟模型

森林生态系统同时提供多种功能和服务的能力,被称为森林生态系统多功能性,可分为生态系统功能多功能性和生态系统服务多功能性。近年来,生态学领域对生物多样性与多功能性关系机理、多功能性驱动因子等进行了大量研究,这些研究持续成为热点。然而,这些研究成果在实际应用,尤其是在指导森林经营实践方面,尚显不足。森林经营一直以实现多种功能或服务的最大化为目标,但目前还缺乏与生态学中多功能性理论研究的有机联系,迫切需要将二者结合。本文对国际国内森林生态系统服务多功能性的概念、指标、评价方法、经营模拟和优化模型进行了综述,认为预测森林生态系统服务及多功能性、在森林经营单位层面实现多功能性最大化是将来的研究方向。因此,需要加强森林经营模型模拟研究,寻找减少不同服务间冲突、增加协同(即增加多功能性)的经营策略,回答森林经营和气候变化如何影响生态系统服务间的权衡和协调关系及其时空变化等理论和实际问题。