The Matching Status of Community Family-Care Service Supply and Demand in Shanghai

Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in public society. However, with the developing of economic and society, the traditional family＇ s structure and function is gradually being weaken, and the traditional idea of raising children for old age is deeply rooted, elderly people are reluctant to leave their original place. So community family-care is becoming the main endowment way. However, there is a big problem in the quantity and quality of service which is supplied by community, the project that a lot of elderly people really needs, the community does not provide, and some projects are now offered to elderly people, the quality still can not fully to meet the needs of older persons. Those problems are urgently need to be solved. This study aims to know the current status of community family-care in Shanghai, starting from the needs of older persons to allocate the community resources rationally, further improve the quality of the pension service, protect the interests of the elderly.

Study on Supply and Demand of Intelligent Home-based Aged Care in Shanghai

The 21st century is an era of aging population. With the accelerated aging of the population in our country, and the grim form of population aging, intelligent home-based care has become a concern for the elderly in the area of ？？care. This paper starts from the new concept of intelligent home-based care services and defines intelligent home care services. It also summarizes the current theoretical researches related to domestic research, which is of great significance for the investigation and research conducted in the later stage of research.

Farmer's Perception on Supply-Demand Matching of New Variety and Its Influence Factors

Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant's cognition on seed technology and perception on supplydemand matching of new variety.Research results show that the vast majority of farmers think that current new variety is at high-level supplydemand balance and the oversupply status,and updating speed of new variety on the market is faster;the farmers preferring risk,seeking innovation and having strong learning and cognition ability may select high-level supply-demand matching state,and the farmers understanding the importance and difference of seed technology tend to choose high-level supply-demand matching situation;the farmers with strong learning and cognition ability can acknowledge the importance and difference of seed technology,while the farmers preferring risk can perceive the difference of seed technology;psychology seeking the innovation and learning and cognition ability affect the farmer's perception on supplydemand matching status of new variety via affecting the farmer's cognition on technical difference.

Operation Strategy and Matching of Supply and Demand of CCHP System with Various Building Types

The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics are primarily influenced by different building types and operating strategies.In view of the energy redundancy of the following electric load(FEL)and following thermal load(FTL)operation strategies and the energy deficiency of the following hybrid electric-heating load(FHL)operation strategy,this paper proposes an improved following balanced heat-electrical load(IFBL)operation strategy based on the following balanced heat-electrical load(FBL)operation strategy.Based on the energy utilization rate as the objective function,this paper optimizes the installed capacity of CCHP systems in different buildings and proposes an energy factor for evaluating the supply-demand matching characteristics of the system.The results show that the energy utilization rate and energy factor of the system under IFBL are optimal relative to the other operation strategies.Secondly,the hotel building has the highest energy utilization rate and the lowest energy factor;on the contrary,the office building has the lowest energy utilization rate and the highest energy factor.Finally,the analysis of supply-demand matching for different building types under multiple operating strategies shows that the hospital and hotel systems exhibit optimal supply-demand matching performance under the IFBL strategy,with values of 0.945 and 0.938,respectively;on the contrary,the office system has an optimal supply-demand matching of 0.935 under the FEL strategy.Under the FTL strategy,the systems of all three buildings exhibit poor matching performance.

A combined forecasting method for intermittent demand using the automotive aftermarket data

Intermittent demand forecasting is an important challenge in the process of smart supply chain transformation,and accurate demand forecasting can reduce costs and increase efficiency for enterprises.This study proposes an intermittent demand combination forecasting method based on internal and external data,builds intermittent demand feature engineering from the perspective of machine learning,predicts the occurrence of demand by classification model,and predicts non-zero demand quantity by regression model.Based on the strategy selection on the inventory side and the stocking needs on the replenishment side,this study focuses on the optimization of the classification problem,incorporates the internal and external data of the enterprise,and proposes two combination forecasting optimization methods on the basis of the best classification threshold searching and transfer learning,respectively.Based on the real data of auto after-sales business,these methods are evaluated and validated in multiple dimensions.Compared with other intermittent forecasting methods,the models proposed in this study have been improved significantly in terms of classification accuracy and forecasting precision,which validates the potential of combined forecasting framework for intermittent demand and provides an empirical study of the framework in industry practice.The results show that this research can further provide accurate upstream inputs for smart inventory and guarantee intelligent supply chain decision-making in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

Design and error estimates of cut tobacco feeding by wind system

The cut tobacco transporting is the absolutely necessarily important tache, Whether the transportation process stability is a direct impact on production quality and manufacturing standards. The wind system is adopted by most tobacco companies because of it caused least disruptive of the cut tobacco structure and the pipe network layout of system is flexible, but the wind system is greater influence by itself, different control methods are caused greater difference of process indicators, for example essence and spice ingredients, moisture proportion and smoke flavor. Based on the above reasons, so we need to design the control method of wind system necessarily, in addition we must checkout the control accuracy opportunely, so that it is satisfied by the actual working conditions.

Quantitative assessment of the supply,demand and flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Ecosystem service flow is essential for transporting,transforming,and maintaining ecosystem services and connecting supply and demand.This study attempted to quantitatively assess the supply and demand flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin in 2000,2010,and 2020;assess the evolution of the spatial patterns of ecosystem service flow at the provincial,watershed and urban agglomeration scales;and design a zoning standard for ecosystem service flow.The results showed as follows.1)Between 2000 and 2020,the Yangtze River had a progressive drop in its freshwater supply,water conservation service and carbon sequestration service flows.The decline rates for these services were measured at 10.90%,11.11%,and 5.17%,respectively.The climate regulation service flow exhibited a pattern of initial fall followed by a subsequent increase,characterized by a decline rate of 35.53%.2)The lowest was the ecosystem service flow in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Freshwater supply service flow and water conservation service flow were the highest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.Carbon sequestration service flow and climate regulation service flow were the highest in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.3)From 2000 to 2020,the change ratios of the area proportion of the confluence,flow,and outflow areas in the Yangtze River Basin were 1.06,3.17,and 0.86,respectively.The results of this research could offer decision support for regulating ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,promoting sustainable regional development and achieving rational use of the basin resources.

考虑快速变负荷和灵活性供需匹配的耦合系统优化调度

可再生能源与快速变负荷改造的火电机组在同一并网点对外形成耦合系统,是提升沙漠、戈壁、荒漠等灵活性发电资源缺乏而可再生能源比例较高地区灵活性的有效手段。为了挖掘火电机组改造后的耦合系统经济性与灵活性,文中提出一种风光火耦合系统多目标优化调度方法。首先,根据实际测算的火电机组灵活性改造后的运行煤耗数据,拟合了机组爬坡过程的煤耗计算公式,并分析了火电快速变负荷能力提高对耦合系统经济性和灵活性的影响。在此基础上,将日综合运行收益与灵活性供需匹配度作为目标函数,考虑包括阶梯式爬坡率在内的系统运行约束,构建多目标优化调度模型。通过在优化算法中使用分组关联多项式变异算子,提高了算法对维度较高、约束较复杂的电力系统多目标优化调度问题的求解能力。最后,以某地区耦合系统为例进行了优化调度仿真。结果表明,文中所述方法能够获得综合经济性与灵活性相对更优的耦合系统优化调度方案。

嵌入生成式人工智能的数字教育资源精准服务模式构建——基于供需耦合的分析视角

数字教育资源精准服务是一种以用户为中心、需求为导向的服务模式。从供需耦合角度分析,当前基础教育数字资源服务还存在资源供需不适配,更新速度与需求变化不同步,服务差异化、个性化程度不足,需求识别与预测能力不佳,以及智能化服务水平有待提升等问题。生成式人工智能凭借其跨模态生成、自适应学习、深度理解与智能交互等强大功能,为数字教育资源服务创新提供了有力的技术支持。基于供需适配、使用与满足和用户体验理论,研究构建了嵌入生成式人工智能技术的数字教育资源精准服务模式,阐释了供需双侧联动的资源服务机制。在此基础上,提出增强资源服务与用户需求“耦合”的路径:基于数据驱动的用户需求识别与预测;通过精准推荐增强资源服务与用户需求的适配度;借助智能交互提升用户参与感和体验感;利用反馈信息实现数字资源的持续进化;以及引入智能评估改进资源服务的质量,以此促进数字教育资源服务向精准化、个性化和智能化方向发展,更好地满足基础教育数字化转型的实践诉求。

智能制造与企业韧性:机制与效应

面对百年未有之大变局,提高韧性是企业应对危机、逆势成长所需的关键能力。基于2010—2022年制造业A股上市公司数据,以智能制造产业政策为准自然实验,并利用双重差分法检验智能制造对企业韧性的影响。研究发现,智能制造显著提高了企业韧性。机制检验表明,智能制造主要通过促进供应链多元化配置和优化供需匹配两个渠道提高企业韧性。异质性分析表明,对于非国有企业、内部控制水平较低企业、数字化水平较高企业,以及数字基础设施建设水平较高和市场化水平较高的地区,智能制造对企业韧性的影响更为显著。拓展分析发现,智能制造对企业发展具有积极的经济后果,可以提高企业经济绩效。

空间正义视角下残疾人常用设施供需匹配研究——以武汉市经济技术开发区为例

城市外部空间设施的供给与残疾人群体的需求之间的平衡对提升群体生活福祉与城市空间正义具有重要意义。该文基于空间正义视角,从社会公平与空间公平两个层面构建残疾人常用设施供需匹配分析框架,并运用高斯型两步移动搜索法、基尼系数与区位熵等方法对武汉市经济技术开发区展开实证研究。实证表明:武汉市经济技术开发区中的残疾人常用设施存在显著的空间供需失配,残疾人日常生活需求难以被满足,继而引发了空间不正义的现象。最后依据实证结果,结合现状与设施特征,提出设施配置优化与促进空间正义的策略。

基于供需匹配优化的多货品可拆分车辆路径问题

针对供应链上下游企业原料生产运输问题,提出了供需匹配优化策略,并将部分客户对不同原料的需求分批次配送,可以确保满足客户需求并降低车辆空载率、提高运输效率,建立了以车辆固定成本和行驶成本之和最小为目标的取送货车辆路径优化模型。采用遗传算法进行求解,设计了供需匹配对编码策略和车辆路径调整策略,可以增强全局搜索能力,更有可能获得最优解。通过算例分析得出最小总成本和最优车辆路径,并验证了文章匹配策略和需求拆分策略的有效性,研究成果对生产运输企业的实际运营具有一定的参考价值。

基于供需理论的生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型构建与应用研究

[目的/意义]当前生成式人工智能的发展对社会产生了强烈冲击。为响应国家创新发展的迫切需求,如何利用生成式人工智能更好地完成情报工作,以满足用户的情报需求,已成为当前情报学领域关注的热点问题。[方法/过程]基于供需理论提出从数据供给侧(Supply)、智慧情报分析中台(Analysis)、情报需求侧(Demand)三方构建生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型——SAD范式模型,深入分析生成式人工智能赋能情报工作机理,并结合国际前沿项目案例探讨生成式人工智能与情报工作的前瞻性融合发展。[结果/结论]生成式人工智能赋能情报工作范式模型SAD,可以更好地促进生成式人工智能赋能情报工作的各个环节,提高情报工作效率,为情报工作范式研究提供了新思路。

面向治理现代化的公共服务理论思考:内涵、要求与路径

公共服务作为保障国家和社会良好运行的物质载体,逐渐成为现代国家治理的合法性基础。面对人民群众需求层次提升的现实要求和推进治理现代化的时代使命,公共服务被赋予新的内涵和要求。而这种变化的具体要求和表现以及由此对公共服务供给方式带来的挑战,并没有在当前的研究中得到充分讨论。新时期公共服务现代化的要求在于实现服务配置的公平正义、服务供给的可持续性和服务供需的有效匹配。因此,有必要基于公共服务在内容体系、供给侧和需求侧的变化,结合公共服务供给的基本过程,构建理解治理现代化下公共服务发展要求的分析框架,重新思考公共服务的供给方式,提出公共服务的空间路径、财政路径和技术路径。一是科学配置有限的资源,优化空间功能与设施布局,重构公共服务的空间结构和空间秩序,以空间资源配置回应空间正义。二是明晰政府、市场和社会等主体的责权关系和角色,完善层级政府间的财政制度设计,以财政治理促进可持续发展。三是通过打造数字化的公共服务场景,利用数字技术优化公共服务需求识别和反馈机制,以技术赋能实现供需有效匹配。

Open Innovation and New Mechanism of Market-Based Technology Diffusion from MNCs

The international community has blamed developing countries for the lack of intellectual property rights(IPR)protection-not least the“forced technology transfers”-in attracting foreign direct investment(FDI).This paper employs the largesample contract data of multinational companies’(MNCs)IT R&D transactions in China to discuss this controversy from a unique perspective of MNCs in the role of contractors.Our findings suggest that MNCs initially guarded their know-how before the 2000s under closed innovation,but have started to take the initiative to transfer technology to local partners as open innovation held sway.China’s structured market entities and huge demand for technology transactions have served as key drivers for MNCs to transfer technology,which has been further boosted by the new business model of open innovation.This paper’s empirical analysis not only helps unravel the“black box”of technology transfers by MNCs,but reveals how late-moving developing countries may make better use of FDI referencing China’s experience on the three dimensions of market opportunities,structured entities,and economies of scale.

水源供给服务供需流空间不匹配特征识别及优化

如何识别水源供给服务在自然-人类社会系统中的空间流动过程和匹配特征,对于区域水资源管理和可持续利用具有重要意义。以重庆市为研究区域,基于InVEST模型和社会经济发展视角定量评估流域尺度下的水源供给量和需水量,结合水资源安全指数和热点分析构建水源供给服务流模型,揭示水源供给服务供需空间匹配关系,依据水源供给服务流空间属性特征划分供需匹配关系的区域类型,借助地理探测器从自然、社会和生态三个角度讨论影响各区域类型水源供给服务供需匹配关系的影响因素。结果表明:(1) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市流域水源供给量与需水量均先减少后上升,供需比平均值分别为1.17、1.08、0.9,整体供需不匹配的问题逐渐得到缓解,但局部仍有供需不匹配现象。空间上中高度赤字区域集中在主城区内,向外辐射为轻度赤字区域,盈余区域分布在东北和东南方向。(2) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市水源供需比冷、热点范围均在缩小,流域面积分别相对减少了25.34%、9.2%。水源供给服务流空间上整体呈现出自东北、东南方向向西流动的路径,同时冷点区内部呈边缘向中心流动。(3)汇流区集中在西北部,经流区位于中部,外流区集中在东南和与东北部。影响汇流区供需匹配关系的主导因素是蒸散发,解释力为74.08%;影响经流区的主导因素是第三产业GDP,解释力为51.44%;外流区各影响因子的解释力均较低。不同影响因子之间蒸散发与其它因素的交互作用显著增强。研究可以为重庆市自然资源的管理与流域生态补偿机制的建立提供科学依据。

有效资本存量、供需匹配与中国经济稳定增长

在中国高质量发展不断深化的背景下,有效投资通过优化供给结构可实现供给和需求的进一步匹配,进而克服中国现阶段有效供给不足的问题。本文以不同产业资本效率为权重构建了中国有效资本存量指标体系,相比于以往研究,从理论方面对简单加总的资本存量进行了改进。同时,通过结合不同产业的投资效率以及资本占比得出中国投资结构面临的问题。研究发现:中国投资结构面临的问题是低投资效率的产业获得高份额的投资以及高投资效率的产业没有获得足够的投资份额,进而导致中国有效供给不足和内循环不通畅。因此,需要通过增加有效投资来盘活存量资本和优化供给结构,确保实现经济的稳定增长。

企业数字化转型与供应链韧性

数字化转型正逐渐成为驱动供应链转型升级的新引擎,如何利用数字化转型提高供应链韧性是当前亟需研究的现实问题,但尚未有文献对此提供直接的经验证据。文章在构建供应链韧性指标基础上,基于2007—2022年A股上市企业面板数据,检验了企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明,企业数字化转型可以显著促进供应链韧性提升。解构供应链韧性后发现,企业数字化转型可以提高供应链抵抗力和供应链恢复力,且对供应链恢复力的影响更显著。从传导机制看,企业数字化转型通过推动供应链多元化配置和优化供需匹配两个渠道促进供应链韧性提升。异质性分析表明,对于环境不确定性高、内部控制水平低企业,以及位于产业链下游和市场化水平低地区,企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的助推作用更加显著。进一步研究发现,数字化转型促进供应链韧性提升并未造成企业经济绩效损失,而是持续推动企业经济表现;“链主”企业和供应链政策在数字化转型提高供应链韧性过程中发挥一定的正向激励作用。文章不仅为系统理解企业数字化转型与供应链韧性的关系提供了新的分析视角,也为打造数字供应链和畅通国民经济循环提供了政策启示。

把握数字消费高质量发展的着力点

推进经济高质量发展必须构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用。数字经济快速发展,引发居民消费发生巨大变革,在消费主体、消费客体和消费环境方面,数字消费都呈现出典型的新特征。数字消费有助于提升消费需求、有助于推动产业结构升级、有助于促进供需匹配。应着力于消除城乡消费差距过大、推进新型基础设施建设、培育供需匹配创新动力和推进数字消费治理升级等多个方面,助推数字消费高质量发展,加快构建双循环新发展格局。

电商政策的数字化效应:作用机制与双重溢出

迅猛发展的电子商务在数字经济催化下日益彰显出其对企业数字化转型的内生驱动力。以国家电子商务示范城市建设作为准自然实验,探讨国家电子商务示范城市试点政策对企业数字化转型的影响。研究表明:国家电子商务示范城市试点政策显著提高了企业数字化转型水平,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;试点政策对中小企业、产业链下游企业、市场潜能高和政府财政赤字低的城市中的企业影响更为明显。成本效应、供需匹配效应、生产性服务业集聚效应与政府注意力分配效应是关键的中间作用机制。试点政策带动了消费互联网的发展,并使其与工业互联网建设产生协同效应,推动企业数字化转型。进一步分析表明,试点政策在电子商务发展较弱的地区主要表现出辐射带动的空间溢出效应,并通过产业链溢出效应促进了上游企业的数字化转型。研究结论为进一步优化电商政策的制定、促进企业高质量发展提供了政策启示。