Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Coordinated optimal allocation of water resources and industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions of China

Optimizing the allocation of water resources is critical for promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions of China.Based on specific regional and water conditions,to strengthen the constraints on water resources,the“three-step”adaptive management approach of“scheme design-scheme diagnosis-scheme optimization”of water resource allocation are adopted to facilitate the coordinated optimal allocation of water resources and industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.First,from the level of overall industry,a water resource allocation scheme for the regions is designed by applying the master-slave hierarchical mode and a bi-level optimal model to determine the ideal amount of water resource allocation for the regions and respective industries.Second,the diagnostic criteria of spatial balance,structural matching,and coordinated development are constructed to determine the rationality of the water resource allocation scheme.Then a benefit compensation function with water market transactions is developed,to adaptively adjust the water resource allocation scheme.Finally,the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are promoted to improve water consumption efficiency and the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.The study can provide reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions to realize the comprehensive optimal allocation of water resources in the regions and improve the adaptability of water resources and industrial structure optimization.

A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land:a model for Manas River Basin

The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.

A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,China

This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing （ITSP）. The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro- vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of watershed, where three scenarios with different water re- sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri- culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock- breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.

Study on ecological and economic effects of land and water resources allocation in Sanjiang Plain

The pattern of groundwater usage and industrial development in the Sanjiang Plain remains a concern of Chinese government. In accordance with the Water Conservancy Planning of the Sanjiang Plain, this paper presents a Sanjiang Plain resources allocation model which is established to be used in controlling water, land, ecology and economy in consideration of 50%-level and 75%-level years, planting structure adjustment, industry development by 2020, and different transit water exploitation schemes. Lingo10 global optimization has been adopted in solving the model. The results show that by 2020 the output of three industries will increase to a certain degree, the grain yields will satisfy state demand, and regional service value will decrease dramatically. Such results provide theoretical basis and practical significance for instructing the development and exploitation of the Sanjiang Plain.

Study on functions and rational allocation of Shule River Basin groundwater resources

Based on Investigation and Assessment on Rational Exploitation and Utilization of Groundwater Resources in Typical Areas of the Hexi Corridor, the thesis studies on groundwater and environmental problems arising from the large-scale agricultural development projects in Shule River Basin. The thesis analyzes problems in exploiting and utilizing water resources, defines the function zoning of groundwater resources in key areas and evaluates them. Finally, the thesis uses three-dimensional unsteady flow simulation and regional social and economic development plan to study on the allocation of groundwater in Shule River Basin. A proposal for rational allocation of Shule River Basin water resources has been put forward.

Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China

Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%.

Response of water resources to climate change and its future trend in the source region of the Yangtze River

In this paper, variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data, as well as the impact data set （version 2.0） published by the National Climate Center in November 2009. The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years, especially after 2004. The trend was very clearly shown, and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years, where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect, and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period. Precipitation notably increased, and glacier melt water increased due to climate change, all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region. Based on global climate model prediction, in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios, water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.

Application of WEAP Simulation Model to Hengshui City Water Planning

Like many river basins in China, water resources in the Fudong Pai River are almost fully allocated. This paper seeks to assess and evaluate water resource problems using water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model via its application to Hengshui Basin of Fudong Pai River. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users' behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in detail. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that most water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders.

Multiobjective Optimal Water ResourcesManagement for a Large River Basin

The availalability. use, development, and management of water resources are receivingincreasing attentioll worldwide. As demands for water continues to grow and the resources continue todwindle or at best remain constant at some level, it has become increasingly necessary to develop moreand more methods for the managaement of this scarce resource especially in arid and semiarid regions.The necessity of integrated planning and management of the basin arises because of insufficient anderratic nature of the rainfall. The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal operation policy ofthe water resources for the river basins to meet the multi-objective demands of water requirements. Anoptimization approach has been developed to aid decision making in the real time allocation of waterwithin t he context of a large-scale, multi-objective, complex river system. The optimization approach isbased on the Progressive Optimality Algorithm, Golden Search techniqlle, and the ε-constraint method.As a case study, the present methodology is applied to the Yellow River Reservoir system in China andpresented in a companion paper in this issue.

引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统设计与开发

为强化引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源统一调配,基于Spring Boot和Vue前后端分离开发的模式,利用天地图API、WebGL、Echarts等技术设计研发引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统。从设计思路、功能界面、关键技术3个角度论述系统设计思路和实现过程,从而实现地理信息服务、供需水预测、水资源优化配置、水资源优化调度等功能,实现水量分配可视化、运行调度智能化和跨流域调水管控一体化。系统测试结果表明:引江济淮工程(河南段)水资源调配系统的建立提高了受水区水资源精细化管理的水平,解决了引江济淮工程(河南段)跨流域调水的配置难题,为受水区水资源高效利用提供有效的技术支撑。

县域水资源均衡配置研究

以米易县为例,针对典型县域最严格水资源红线控制和自然-社会水循环系统特点,采用总体缺水率最小和分区空间均衡为目标函数,总量控制、供水能力、分质供水等为约束条件,并采用改进时间-空间两层精英策略的非支配遗传算法,构建分区独立供水和库群联调的通用水资源调度与配置(GWAS)模型,并进行参数率定与验证,得出相关系数R为0.85,Nash效率系数为0.73,区域水文模块模拟精度较好。方案模拟研究表明,无论是基准年还是规划年,相对于水库分区独立供水,考虑均衡系数的库群联调方案更具优势,分区供水综合缺水率差异更大,而库群联调中各乡镇缺水率大幅减少,缺水差异更小。库群联调方案的水资源配置公平性更好,空间上各单元间的水量分配配置满足度高,可基本实现在动态变化下的区域水资源供需平衡。

基于熵权TOPSIS的黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力评价

为评价黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力,以黄河流域甘肃段4个二级分区为研究对象,初选20个评价指标,利用信息敏感性和相关性分析法剔除敏感性较低和相关性较高的7个指标,最终确定13个评价指标。从系统角度将指标分为水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统,利用熵权法与TOPSIS模型结合的方法计算综合得分,并利用障碍因子诊断模型分析4个二级分区的水资源承载力障碍因子。结果表明:空间维度上,黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力存在空间差异性,龙羊峡以上分区水资源承载力最高,龙羊峡—兰州分区与兰州—河口镇分区水资源承载力次之,龙门—三门峡分区水资源承载力最低;时间维度上,除龙羊峡以上分区外其余3个二级分区水资源承载力均有缓慢上升趋势;人均水资源量、产水模数、人均供水量、人口密度、城镇化率及生态环境用水率是影响黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力的主要障碍因子,建议优化水资源配置、调整用水结构、促使经济发展与水资源承载力相匹配等,以提升及保持黄河流域甘肃段水资源承载力。

淠史杭灌区干旱推演及抗旱预案调控研究

水资源干旱是限制灌区可持续发展的关键因素。为提高灌区的干旱防治能力,使其更好的发挥其在节水、减灾方面的作用,以淠史杭灌区为研究区,通过划分水资源配置子单元和设置调蓄节点,采用公平性最优和供水缺水率最小作为目标函数,总量控制、供水能力、分质供水等作为约束条件,采用基于精英策略的非支配遗传改进算法求解,构建区域General Water Allocation and Simulation Model(GWAS)模型;以2022年为现状基准年,与2023规划年组合,分为连续干旱与不连续干旱两大类,基于灌区水资源“应急干旱三次平衡”调控思想,分析灌区水资源在不同干旱情景下缺水的基础上,展开水资源抗旱配置研究,推演分析不同抗旱方案下水资源供需平衡情况。结果表明:连续干旱年中,灌区2023规划年在情景Ⅰ(P=90%)、情景Ⅱ(P=80%)来水频率下,各乡镇配置单元均存在不同程度的缺水情况,区域总缺水率分别为35.1%、20.8%;不连续干旱年中,2023规划年在情景Ⅲ(P=50%)来水频率下,模型基准配置水量基本可以满足区域各乡镇水量需求,区域总缺水率为5.9%。经不同抗旱方案尾部泵站补水、调整作物种植结构及外调水的优化配置后,三种情景下区域总缺水率最终都降为0%,优化后各配置单元供水改善效果显著。研究成果可为淠史杭灌区未来在应对不同干旱类型情景下水资源的合理调整提供技术支撑,并且可为实现该区域水资源统一管理和水量的统一调配提供理论依据。

基于自适应混沌精英变异差分进化算法的中长期水资源优化调度

中长期水资源优化调度问题是一类具有非线性、多阶段、高维度和多重约束特性的复杂优化问题。针对经典智能算法在求解此类问题时容易陷入局部最优或者收敛效率较低等问题,应用混沌搜索策略增强算法的探索能力,同时改进传统算法的变异方式,向精英个体学习以提升收敛速度,提出自适应混沌精英变异差分进化(ACEDE)算法。将所提出的算法应用于珠江三角洲水资源配置工程中长期调度进行实例研究,并与经典智能算法进行对比分析。结果表明:①ACEDE算法在全局探索能力、收敛精度与速度上实现了全面提升,并且表现出良好的适应性。相较于传统差分进化(DE)算法,2030年水平年6月份和2040年水平年6月份调度中ACEDE算法所计算的电费成本分别节省了74.23万元和23.55万元,降低了6.68%和1.52%。②在珠江三角洲水资源配置工程中长期调度中,充分利用调蓄水库库容满足高分水量需求,同时放缓月末补水充库过程,能够有效控制泵站的平稳运行,达到降低电费成本的目的。

长江水资源调配推演器构建与推演分析

长江水资源调配推演器(CJGWAS)由中国长江三峡集团有限公司、中国水利水电科学研究院联合研发,实现长江流域水库工程“点”、河流及调水工程“线”、地市单元“面”、流域综合“体”的“点—线—面—体”一体化水资源科学模拟与开发利用分析。推演器融合水文模型、配置模型、水库调配模型、需水预测等算法,可对长江流域历史、现状进行复盘,并对未来状况进行推演。研究成果可为长江流域水网规划、重大引调水工程评估、断面生态流量及发电冲击预判等提供支撑。

西北内陆河流域水资源韧性配置与生态复苏的思考及建议

西北内陆河流域水资源极度短缺,长期的过度开发与不均衡利用,导致水资源供需矛盾突出、生态系统退化、经济社会发展受阻。围绕西北内陆河流域重要战略地位和河湖复苏实践现状,分析了西北内陆河流域高质量发展面临的水资源问题与挑战。研究提出了遵循“四水四定”和“以水定绿”原则,识别经济社会与生态环境用水特性与弹性空间,科学确定用水优先级和调控策略,构建水资源韧性配置模式,实现经济社会发展和河湖生态复苏的统一;基于上中下游空间关联,量化生态服务供需关系,优化人工绿洲和天然绿洲规模,确定适宜的生态格局,实现生态水量优化配置与高效利用;建立“天空地水工”全要素监测体系,构筑水资源管理数字孪生平台,发展水利新质生产力,增强内陆河流域水资源系统的适应性和应对外部压力的能力。

黄河流域水资源配置研究与展望

黄河流域水资源合理利用和优化配置问题受到社会广泛关注。从20世纪80年代开始,相继开展了黄河“八七”分水方案制定和水量统一调度、新径流条件下分水方案调整、支流水量分配方案制定,以及变化环境下分水方案优化等一系列持续性研究,研究成果提升了黄河流域水资源优化调控和节约集约利用水平,实现黄河干流连续25 a不断流。面向黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略的推进,从流域水循环和水资源演变、用水规律与需水预测、健康水平衡、流域地表水-地下水统一配置、多层级水网构建情况下水资源优化配置、应对极端枯水的水资源韧性调配、数字孪生黄河建设等方面,提出了适应环境变化和国家多层级水网构建下的黄河流域水资源研究和突破方向。

时空异质性视角下长江经济带水资源系统韧性评估及调控因子分析

水资源系统韧性的评估与调控是缓解水资源危机和规避水资源风险的重要途径之一。从水资源的自然资源、社会经济、生态环境等属性出发,综合考虑水资源系统韧性的抵抗性、恢复性、适应性特征,构建了包含水资源、水经济、水福利、水管理、水生态和水环境6个维度的水资源系统韧性评价指标体系,建立了基于麻雀搜索算法的投影寻踪模型,运用自然断点法识别区域空间分异特征,采用因子探测识别影响水资源系统韧性空间分布格局的调控因子。通过对2010—2019年长江经济带11个省(市)水资源系统韧性的分析发现,在空间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性表现为西部最优、东部次之、中部最末,且南部优于北部;在时间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性虽有波动但整体呈现上升的趋势。从6个维度来看,水生态韧性维度的韧性值区间跨度较大,在0.08~0.52之间波动,水福利韧性最高,水环境韧性次之。水资源和水福利的相关因子对水资源系统韧性的影响较为明显,水经济中的工业废水治理投资占GDP的比重和万元工业增加值用水量2个指标以及水福利中的供水管道密度和人均供水量2个指标的影响力逐渐上升。通过对长江经济带水资源系统韧性和调控因子的分析,有针对性地提出了提高长江经济带水资源系统韧性的对策建议。