Sensitivity to Tendency Perturbations of Tropical Cyclone Short-range Intensity Forecasts Generated by WRF

The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector(NFSV)approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for tropical cyclone(TC)intensity forecasts.For nine selected TC cases,the NFSV-tendency perturbations of the WRF model,including components of potential temperature and/or moisture,are calculated when TC intensities are forecasted with a 24-hour lead time,and their respective potential temperature components are demonstrated to have more impact on the TC intensity forecasts.The perturbations coherently show barotropic structure around the central location of the TCs at the 24-hour lead time,and their dominant energies concentrate in the middle layers of the atmosphere.Moreover,such structures do not depend on TC intensities and subsequent development of the TC.The NFSV-tendency perturbations may indicate that the model uncertainty that is represented by tendency perturbations but associated with the inner-core of TCs,makes larger contributions to the TC intensity forecast uncertainty.Further analysis shows that the TC intensity forecast skill could be greatly improved as preferentially superimposing an appropriate tendency perturbation associated with the sensitivity of NFSVs to correct the model,even if using a WRF with coarse resolution.

Tuning the intensity statistics of random speckle patterns

Speckle patterns are a fundamental tool in a variety of physical and optical applications. Here, we investigate a method of precisely tuning the intensity statistics of random speckle patterns into a desirable pattern that possesses the same spatial correlation length and similar statistics distribution. This tuning mechanism relies on the derivation of the transform function and transmission matrix, which achieves different contrasts while maintaining the same average value or energy level. The statistics properties of the generated speckle patterns are further investigated by analyzing the standard deviation under different fitting parameters. Precisely tuning the intensity statistics of random speckle patterns could be useful for both fundamental research and practical applications, such as microscopy, imaging, and optical manipulation.

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).

STUDY ON THE MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING FY-3 MWRI BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE DATA

A technique for estimating tropical cyclone(TC) intensity over the Western North Pacific utilizing FY-3Microwave Imager(MWRI) data is developed. As a first step, we investigated the relationship between the FY-3 MWRI brightness temperature(TB) parameters, which are computed in concentric circles or annuli of different radius in different MWRI frequencies, and the TC maximum wind speed(Vmax) from the TC best track data. We found that the parameters of lower frequency channels' minimum TB, mean TB and ratio of pixels over the threshold TB with a radius of 1.0 or 1.5 degrees from the center give higher correlation. Then by applying principal components analysis(PCA)and multiple regression method, we established an estimation model and evaluated it using independent verification data, with the RMSE being 13 kt. The estimated Vmax is always stronger in the early stages of development, but slightly weaker toward the mature stage, and a reversal of positive and negative bias takes place with a boundary of around 70 kt. For the TC that has a larger error, we found that they are often with less organized and asymmetric cloud pattern, so the classification of TC cloud pattern will help improve the acuracy of the estimated TC intensity, and with the increase of statistical samples the accuracy of the estimated TC intensity will also be improved.

STATISTICAL AND COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE CORES AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TBB WITHIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION AND ITS INTENSITY

Based on the data(including radius of maximum winds) from the JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center),the tropical cyclones(TCs) radii of the outermost closed isobar, TCs best tracks from Shanghai Typhoon Institute and the Black Body Temperature(TBB) of the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite M1 TR IR1, and combining13 tropical cyclones which landed in China again after visiting the island of Taiwan during the period from 2001 to2010, we analyzed the relationship between the number of convective cores within TC circulation and the intensity of TC with the method of convective-stratiform technique(CST) and statistical and composite analysis. The results are shown as follows:(1) The number of convective cores in the entire TC circulation is well corresponding with the outer spiral rainbands and the density of convective cores in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) TC intensity. At the same time, the number of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is more than that within the inner core and does not change much with the TC intensity. However, the density of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is lower than that within the inner core.(2) The relationship described above is sensitive to landing location to some extent but not sensitive to the structure of TC.(3) The average value of TBB in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) of TC intensity, which is also sensitive to landing situation to some extent. At the same time, the average value of TBB within the outer spiral rainbands is close to that within the entire TC circulation, and both of them are more than that within the inner core. However, they do not reflect TC intensity change significantly.(4) The results of statistical composite based on convective cores and TBB are complementary with each other, so a combination of both can reflect the relationship between TC rainbands and TC intensity much better.

Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.

CHARACTERISTICS OF INTENSITY CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM 1977 TO 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.

THE INTENSITY VARIATION OF THE SUMMER INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS IMPACT ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ） in summer and its impacts on tropical cyclones are studied. In this paper, an intensity index of the ITCZ is proposed according to Outgoing Longwave Radiation （OLR） in the region of （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the western North Pacific （WNP）. Then strong and weak ITCZ years are classified and different variables during the strong/weak ITCZ years are analyzed. The composite results show that the ITCZ anomaly is connected to the general atmospheric circulation and SST distribution. In the strong ITCZ years, the subtropical anticyclone weakens and shifts northward. Besides, there is salient cyclonic anomaly at the low level and anticyclonic anomaly at the high level. SST patterns in the preceding winter resemble to those of La Nifia. It could persist into the succeeding summer. However, it is opposite in the weak ITCZ years. The impact of the ITCZ anomaly on the tropical cyclone （TC） formation and track is also discussed. There are more TCs over the WNP （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the strong ITCZ years and there is a significant increase in the northward recurving TCs. In the weak ITCZ years, fewer TCs occur and the frequency of the northwestward track is higher.

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

Land use intensity dynamics in the Andhikhola watershed, middle hill of Nepal

Land use intensity is a valuable concept to understand integrated land use system, which is unlike the traditional approach of analysis that often examines one or a few aspects of land use disregarding multidimensionality of the intensification process in the complex land system. Land use intensity is based on an integrative conceptual framework focusing on both inputs to and outputs from the land. Geographers’ non-stationary data-analysis technique is very suitable for most of the spatial data analysis. Our study was carried out in the northeast part of the Andhikhola watershed lying in the Middle Hills of Nepal, where over the last two decades, heavy loss of labor due to outmigration of rural farmers and increasing urbanization in the relatively easy accessible lowland areas has caused agricultural land abandonment. Our intention in this study was to ascertain factors of spatial pattern of intensity dynamism between human and nature relationships in the integrated traditional agricultural system. High resolution aerial photo and multispectral satellite image were used to derive data on land use and land cover. In addition, field verification, information collected from the field and census report were other data sources. Explanatory variables were derived from those digital and analogue data. Ordinary Least Square(OLS) technique was used for filtering of the variables. Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model was used to identify major determining factors of land use intensity dynamics. Moran’s I technique was used for model validation. GWR model was executed to identify the strength of explanatory variables explaining change of land use intensity. Accordingly, 10 variables were identified having the greatest strength to explain land use intensity change in the study area, of which physical variables such as slope gradient, temperature and solar radiation revealed the highest strength followed by variables of accessibility and natural resource. Depopulation in recent decades has been a major driver of land use intensity change but spatial variability of land use intensity was highly controlled by physical suitability, accessibility and availability of natural resources.

Photon statistics of pulse-pumped four-wave mixing in fiber with weak signal injection

We study the photon statistics of pulse-pumped four-wave mixing in fibers with weak coherent signal injection by measuring the intensity correlation functions of individual signal and idler fields. The experimental results show that the intensity correlation function of individual signal（idler） field g_（s（i））^（2） decreases with the intensity of signal injection. After applying narrow band filter in signal（idler） band, the value of g_（s（i））^（2） decreases from 1.9 ± 0.02（1.9 ± 0.02） to 1.03 ± 0.02（1.05 ± 0.02） when the intensity of signal injection varies from 0 to 120 photons/pulse. The results indicate that the photon statistics changes from Bose–Einstein distribution to Poisson distribution. We calculate the intensity correlation functions by using the multi-mode theory of four-wave mixing in fibers. The theoretical curves well fit the experimental results.Our investigation will be useful for mitigating the crosstalk between quantum and classical channels in a dense wavelength division multiplexing network.

Research on seismic intensity zonation by use of the response intensity of historical earth－quakes───with the central part of Shanxi Province as an example

With the central part of Shanxi Province as an example, this paper studied seismic intensity zonation directly by use of the response intensity of historical earthquakes. From the result, some conclusions can be drawn as follows: ① For areas rich in data of historical earthquakes, the seismic intensity zonation map with probabilistic meanings can be compiled by use of the statistical features of the response intensity of sites; ② When determining the length of time for statistics, the completeness of response intensity data and the inhomogeneity of regional seismic activities should be fully considered; ③ By comparing the seismic intensity zonation result for recurrence interval of 500 years with the new Seismic Intensity Zonation Map of China (1990), it has been found that the two are roughly similar; though they are somewhat different for some localities, each has its own reasonableness.

Statistical properties of the photoelectron energy spectrum generated by an intense laser pulse and a continuous X-ray

This study shows that the photoelectron energy spectrum generated by an intense laser pulse in the presence of a continuous X-ray has interesting and useful statistical properties. The total photoionization production is linearly propor- tional to the time duration of the laser pulse and the square of the beam size. The spectral double energy-integration is an intrinsic value of the laser-assisted X-ray photoionization, which linearly depends on the laser intensity and which quantita- tively reflects the strengths of the laser-field modulation and the quantum interference between photoelectrons. The spectral energy width also linearly depends on the laser intensity. These linear relationships suggest new methods for the in-situ measurement of laser intensity and pulse duration with high precision.

Confidence Intervals for Relative Intensity of Collaboration(RIC)Indicators

Purpose:We aim to extend our investigations related to the Relative Intensity of Collaboration(RIC)indicator,by constructing a confidence interval for the obtained values.Design/methodology/approach:We use Mantel-Haenszel statistics as applied recently by Smolinsky,Klingenberg,and Marx.Findings:We obtain confidence intervals for the RIC indicatorResearch limitations:It is not obvious that data obtained from the Web of Science(or any other database)can be considered a random sample.Practical implications:We explain how to calculate confidence intervals.Bibliometric indicators are more often than not presented as precise values instead of an approximation depending on the database and the time of measurement.Our approach presents a suggestion to solve this problem.Originality/value:Our approach combines the statistics of binary categorical data and bibliometric studies of collaboration.

Change Laws of Intensity of Moderate-Small Earthquakes (2.0≤Ms≤5.5)

The change laws of intensity of nearly 200 moderate-small earthquakes with Ms=2.0~5.5 occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1954 have been analyzed and are compared with that of moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0).The results show that there is quite obvious regionality in the statistical laws by both moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes:attenuation of intensity in Eastern China is slower than that in Western China and the ratio of the major axis to the minor axis of iso-seismal lines in Eastern China is smaller than that in Western China.The results also show that for a fixed magnitude the attenuation of intensity of moderate-small earthquakes is faster when intensity is higher than V+ and slower when intensity is lower than V-in comparison with that of moderately strong earthquakes.Furthermore,there also have been some differences in the aspects as intensity-magnitude relation between statistical laws of moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes.These

Statistical analysis of pressure fluctuations during unsteady flow for low-specific-speed centrifugal pumps

A three-dimensional transient numerical simulation was conducted to study the pressure fluctuations in low-specific-speed centrifugal pumps. The characteristics of the inner flow were investigated using the SST k-ω turbulence model. The distributions of pressure fluctuations in the impeller and the volute were recorded, and the pressure fluctuation intensity was analyzed comprehensively, at the design condition, using statistical methods. The results show that the pressure fluctuation intensity increases along the impeller streamline from the leading edge to the trailing edge. In the impeller passage, the intensity near the shroud is much higher than that near the hub at thc inlet. However, the intensity at the middle passage is almost equal to the intensity at the outlet. The pressure fluctuation intensity is the highest at the trailing edge on the pressure side and near the tongue because of the rotor-stator interaction. The distribution of pressure fluctuation intensity is symmetrical in the axial cross sections of the volute channel. However, this intensity decreases with increasing radial distance. Hence, the pressure fluctuation intensity can be reduced by modifying the geometry of the leading edge in the impeller and the tongue in the volute.

Statistical Theory of Turbulence by the Late Lamented Dr. Shunichi TsugéCase Study on Flow through a Grid in Wind Tunnel

This paper is concerned with statistical theory of turbulence by the late lamented Dr. Shunichi Tsugé.? The theory has been applied to the primary flow through a grid fixed vertically with respect to the horizontal axis of the wind tunnel.?The first analytical solution has been obtained and explained the well-known “the inverse-linear decay law” of the turbulent intensity.? It is believed that the present result is the first exact solution in the theory of turbulence.

Intense Rainfall in São Carlos/SP: Determination of Threshold Values Using Climate Indices and Their Spatio-Temporal Repercussion

The intense and extreme rains in southeastern Brazil are spatially and temporally dynamic, corroborating their substantial complexity regarding understanding and associations. Therefore, the present study aimed at determining threshold values for events of intense and extreme rainfall in the region of São Carlos/SP using a climatic index, as well as temporal and spatial observations. The RClimdex script, Rnn index, and the detection of outliers were employed in order to mark and establish intense and extreme rainfall thresholds for the region. Values of 10 mm and 20 mm of rain were considered typical and of greater recurrence, and their incidence over a period of 24 hours did not necessarily denote intense events. In turn, values of 35, 46, and 60 mm indicate pluviometric rates that impact on significant disasters, as verified in the IPMET/UNESP natural disasters database. It is important to emphasize that values below 60 mm of daily rainfall may also indicate disaster contexts. However, they do not exclude the necessity to verify the intensity, duration, and frequency of intense rain events, and can delineate thresholds for territorial management organizations in their planning.

Determination of the Vibro-Rotational Constants, the Dipole Moment’s Function and the Intensities of the HTO’s ν1 (ν3 by Usual Convention) Band

In the first part of this paper, an analysis of the high-resolution spectrum of the HTO molecule ν1(ν3) band, from 3630 to3950 cm–1, was undertaken. The rotational transition of this band was assigned using combination differences. Their wavenumbers were analyzed with a least squares fit program in order to obtain spectroscopic constants. A perturbed state has been evidenced. In the second part, with a view towards building a spectroscopic data base, a calculation of the dipolar momentum function was undertaken.

Review of Feynman’s Path Integral in Quantum Statistics:from the Molecular Schrödinger Equation to Kleinert’s Variational Perturbation Theory

Feynman’s path integral reformulates the quantum Schrödinger differential equation to be an integral equation.It has been being widely used to compute internuclear quantum-statistical effects on many-body molecular systems.In this Review,the molecular Schrödinger equation will first be introduced,together with the BornOppenheimer approximation that decouples electronic and internuclear motions.Some effective semiclassical potentials,e.g.,centroid potential,which are all formulated in terms of Feynman’s path integral,will be discussed and compared.These semiclassical potentials can be used to directly calculate the quantum canonical partition function without individual Schrödinger’s energy eigenvalues.As a result,path integrations are conventionally performed with Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics sampling techniques.To complement these techniques,we will examine how Kleinert’s variational perturbation(KP)theory can provide a complete theoretical foundation for developing non-sampling/non-stochastic methods to systematically calculate centroid potential.To enable the powerful KP theory to be practical for many-body molecular systems,we have proposed a new path-integral method:automated integrationfree path-integral(AIF-PI)method.Due to the integration-free and computationally inexpensive characteristics of our AIF-PI method,we have used it to perform ab initio path-integral calculations of kinetic isotope effects on proton-transfer and RNA-related phosphoryl-transfer chemical reactions.The computational procedure of using our AIF-PI method,along with the features of our new centroid path-integral theory at the minimum of the absolute-zero energy(AMAZE),are also highlighted in this review.