The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea ...The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.展开更多
Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature(PFSST),the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC) are discussed.A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in differ...Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature(PFSST),the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC) are discussed.A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in different years.Two indexes are calculated to represent the westward shift(WSI) and northward extension(NEI) of the warm water in the Yellow Sea(YS).Wavelet analysis illustrates that the WSI and NEI have prominent periods of 3-6 years and 3-4 years,respectively.The Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) decomposition is applied to the winter wind stress curl and the Kuroshio Current(KC) transport,which are believed to play important roles in forcing the variability of the YSWC surface axis.Statistics shows that the WSI is significantly related with the second EOF mode of the wind stress curl in February,which may force the YSWC surface axis moving westward and maintaining the double warm tongues because of its opposite curl in the YSWC domain.The first EOF mode of wind stress curl in January is propitious for inducing the warm tongue in the YS to advance more northward.Hence,the wind stress curls both in January and in February could force variations of the YSWC surface axis;however,the effect of the January wind stress curl is relatively weaker than that of the February.The relationship between the NEI and the KC transport is remarkable,and it seems that the stronger KC supplies more power to push the YSWC northward against the southward wind.展开更多
The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the l...The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.展开更多
Climate variability has become a decisive factor for the crop yields in Sub-Saharan African countries. Inter-annual variability in rainfall has been the key climatic element that determines the success of agriculture ...Climate variability has become a decisive factor for the crop yields in Sub-Saharan African countries. Inter-annual variability in rainfall has been the key climatic element that determines the success of agriculture in this region.From an analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa,FAO(2001) concluded that a long-term change in rainfall has occurred in the semi-arid and sub-humid zones of West Africa.Thus,this study aims at assessing the vulnerability of crop yields to inter-annual variability in rainfall in sub-Saharan African countries taking Nigeria as a case study.A time series of the averaged value of the 12-Month Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipita-展开更多
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea sur...Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.展开更多
The impacts of the seasonal and interannual SST variability in the East Asia coastal regions (EACRSST) on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) have been examined using a regional climate model (PδRCM9) in this ...The impacts of the seasonal and interannual SST variability in the East Asia coastal regions (EACRSST) on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) have been examined using a regional climate model (PδRCM9) in this paper. The simulation results show that the correlation between the EACRSST and the EASM is strengthened after the mid-1970s and also the variability of the EACRSST forcing becomes much more important to the EASM interannual variability after the mid-1970s. The impacts of the EACRSST on the summer precipitation over each sub-region in the EASM region become weak gradually from south to north, and the temporal evolution features of the summer precipitation differences over North and Northeast China agree well with those of the index of EASM (IEASM) differences. The mechanism analyses show that different EACRSST forcings result in the differences of sensible and latent heat flux exchanges at the air-sea interface, which alter the heating rate of the atmosphere. The heating rate differences induce low level air temperature differences over East Asia, resulting in the differences of the land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) which lead to 850 hPa geopotential height changes. When the 850 hPa geopotential height increases over the East Asian continent and decreases over the coast of East China and the adjacent oceans during the weakening period of weakens consequently. On the contrary, the EASM enhances during the strengthening period of the LSTC.展开更多
The cloud feedback on the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG model is studied in this paper. Two versions of the model, one with the diagnostic cloud and another with the prescribed cloud,...The cloud feedback on the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG model is studied in this paper. Two versions of the model, one with the diagnostic cloud and another with the prescribed cloud, are used. Both versions are integrated for 45 years. It is found that in the prescribed cloud run, the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific is mainly of interdecadal time scale and the interannual variability is very weak. In the diagnostic cloud run, however, the interdecadal SST variability is depressed much and the interannual SST variability becomes much significant.The mechanism for the feedback is then explored. The variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific is found to be controlled mainly by the zonal wind anomaly, through the process of upwelling/downwelling in both versions. Then it is found that in the diagnostic cloud case, the negative feedback of the solar short wave (SW) flux acts significantly to balance the effect of upwelling/downwelling in addition to the latent flux. In addition, the variability of the SW flux is shown to be closely related to the variability of the middle and high cloud covers. Therefore, the negative feedback of the SW surface flux may have significant contribution to the cloud feedback on the SST variability.展开更多
By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) ...By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low(AL) activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.展开更多
本文基于Hadley中心的海表温度资料、全国160站气温资料以及National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)的再分析资料,运用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)...本文基于Hadley中心的海表温度资料、全国160站气温资料以及National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)的再分析资料,运用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分解和相关分析等多种统计方法,研究了1951~2020年秋季(9~11月)北大西洋海温年际异常的主要特征及其对初冬(12月)我国气温异常的影响。结果表明:秋季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是纽芬兰岛东南部海温为负(正)距平,北大西洋副极地和副热带及其东部海温为正(负)距平的马蹄型海温模态,方差贡献率为20.5%。研究表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常与我国大部分地区初冬气温异常有显著的正相关关系,即秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温模态呈正位相时,我国大部分地区初冬气温偏高,反之,我国大部分地区初冬气温偏低。进一步分析表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常能够持续到初冬。当秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温呈正(负)位相时,初冬北大西洋副极地和副热带海温异常通过加热(冷却)异常能够引起局地对流层上层的辐散(辐合)运动,并且激发出南、北两支Rossby波列。其中,北支波列由北大西洋副极地向东北方向传播至巴伦支海附近,然后沿西伯利亚向东南方向传播至我国上空;南支波列由北大西洋副热带向东传播至我国上空。在南、北支波列的影响下,我国上空对流层上层出现异常辐合(辐散),与之伴随的异常下沉(上升)运动使得我国上空云量减少(增加),到达地表的短波辐射增加(减少),同时地表向低层大气传输的长波辐射增加(减少),在非绝热加热的作用下,我国大部分地区气温偏高(偏低)。利用NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)模式模拟了北大西洋马蹄型海温异常对初冬大气环流、辐射强迫和气温的影响,模拟结果与观测资料统计分析结果基本一致,进一步表明该海温模态能够激发出遥相关波列,影响东亚大气环流异常,通过非绝热加热的作用影响我国气温异常的年际变化。展开更多
By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationshi...By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.展开更多
通过ICOADS(The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set)船测资料,验证了El Ni o引发的北印度洋(North Indian Ocean,NIO)海表温度(SST)的2次增暖过程。前人研究发现,第1次增暖发生在El Ni o盛期,源于El Ni o导致的大...通过ICOADS(The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set)船测资料,验证了El Ni o引发的北印度洋(North Indian Ocean,NIO)海表温度(SST)的2次增暖过程。前人研究发现,第1次增暖发生在El Ni o盛期,源于El Ni o导致的大气环流变化产生了正的短波辐射及潜热通量异常;第2次增暖发生在El Ni o消亡的夏季,是由于反对称风场异常导致蒸发失热减少所造成。研究进一步发现,短波辐射和潜热通量在这两次增暖中都有着重要作用,但二者的作用在时间上并不一致。两次增暖过程都是短波辐射首先产生影响,其后才是风场导致的潜热通量的变化。两次增暖在东西两个海盆也存在差异,第1次增暖主要集中在阿拉伯海区域,第二次增暖在东西两个海盆都较明显。另外,通过El Ni o和La Ni a对比发现,ENSO对北印度洋SST的影响具有不对称性。El Ni o期间北印度洋产生2到3次增暖,而La Ni a只有第二年夏季的降温比较明显,强度也比较弱。展开更多
Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon...Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.展开更多
文摘The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No 2005C B422308)the National High-tech Research and Development Program (863 Program) (No 2006AA09Z149)the China International Science and Technology Cooperation Program (No2006DFB21250)
文摘Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature(PFSST),the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC) are discussed.A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in different years.Two indexes are calculated to represent the westward shift(WSI) and northward extension(NEI) of the warm water in the Yellow Sea(YS).Wavelet analysis illustrates that the WSI and NEI have prominent periods of 3-6 years and 3-4 years,respectively.The Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) decomposition is applied to the winter wind stress curl and the Kuroshio Current(KC) transport,which are believed to play important roles in forcing the variability of the YSWC surface axis.Statistics shows that the WSI is significantly related with the second EOF mode of the wind stress curl in February,which may force the YSWC surface axis moving westward and maintaining the double warm tongues because of its opposite curl in the YSWC domain.The first EOF mode of wind stress curl in January is propitious for inducing the warm tongue in the YS to advance more northward.Hence,the wind stress curls both in January and in February could force variations of the YSWC surface axis;however,the effect of the January wind stress curl is relatively weaker than that of the February.The relationship between the NEI and the KC transport is remarkable,and it seems that the stronger KC supplies more power to push the YSWC northward against the southward wind.
基金A comprehensive study on the activities of the South China Sea summer monsoon and its influence"- a major project of the Chines
文摘The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.
文摘Climate variability has become a decisive factor for the crop yields in Sub-Saharan African countries. Inter-annual variability in rainfall has been the key climatic element that determines the success of agriculture in this region.From an analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa,FAO(2001) concluded that a long-term change in rainfall has occurred in the semi-arid and sub-humid zones of West Africa.Thus,this study aims at assessing the vulnerability of crop yields to inter-annual variability in rainfall in sub-Saharan African countries taking Nigeria as a case study.A time series of the averaged value of the 12-Month Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipita-
基金the European Commission(Project INDO-MARECLIM)the Norwegian Research Council(Project INDIA-CLIM)for providing financial support for this study
文摘Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.
基金We are grateflu to NCEP/NCAR for releasing the reanalysis data.The constructive comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers inproved the quality of paper treatly .This word was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40333026)
文摘The impacts of the seasonal and interannual SST variability in the East Asia coastal regions (EACRSST) on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) have been examined using a regional climate model (PδRCM9) in this paper. The simulation results show that the correlation between the EACRSST and the EASM is strengthened after the mid-1970s and also the variability of the EACRSST forcing becomes much more important to the EASM interannual variability after the mid-1970s. The impacts of the EACRSST on the summer precipitation over each sub-region in the EASM region become weak gradually from south to north, and the temporal evolution features of the summer precipitation differences over North and Northeast China agree well with those of the index of EASM (IEASM) differences. The mechanism analyses show that different EACRSST forcings result in the differences of sensible and latent heat flux exchanges at the air-sea interface, which alter the heating rate of the atmosphere. The heating rate differences induce low level air temperature differences over East Asia, resulting in the differences of the land-sea thermal contrast (LSTC) which lead to 850 hPa geopotential height changes. When the 850 hPa geopotential height increases over the East Asian continent and decreases over the coast of East China and the adjacent oceans during the weakening period of weakens consequently. On the contrary, the EASM enhances during the strengthening period of the LSTC.
文摘The cloud feedback on the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific in GOALS/LASG model is studied in this paper. Two versions of the model, one with the diagnostic cloud and another with the prescribed cloud, are used. Both versions are integrated for 45 years. It is found that in the prescribed cloud run, the SST variability in the western equatorial Pacific is mainly of interdecadal time scale and the interannual variability is very weak. In the diagnostic cloud run, however, the interdecadal SST variability is depressed much and the interannual SST variability becomes much significant.The mechanism for the feedback is then explored. The variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the western equatorial Pacific is found to be controlled mainly by the zonal wind anomaly, through the process of upwelling/downwelling in both versions. Then it is found that in the diagnostic cloud case, the negative feedback of the solar short wave (SW) flux acts significantly to balance the effect of upwelling/downwelling in addition to the latent flux. In addition, the variability of the SW flux is shown to be closely related to the variability of the middle and high cloud covers. Therefore, the negative feedback of the SW surface flux may have significant contribution to the cloud feedback on the SST variability.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 program)of China under contract No.2013CB956203the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41375063
文摘By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low(AL) activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation[grant number 41275078]the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0600701]
文摘本文基于Hadley中心的海表温度资料、全国160站气温资料以及National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)的再分析资料,运用经验正交函数(empirical orthogonal function,EOF)分解和相关分析等多种统计方法,研究了1951~2020年秋季(9~11月)北大西洋海温年际异常的主要特征及其对初冬(12月)我国气温异常的影响。结果表明:秋季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是纽芬兰岛东南部海温为负(正)距平,北大西洋副极地和副热带及其东部海温为正(负)距平的马蹄型海温模态,方差贡献率为20.5%。研究表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常与我国大部分地区初冬气温异常有显著的正相关关系,即秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温模态呈正位相时,我国大部分地区初冬气温偏高,反之,我国大部分地区初冬气温偏低。进一步分析表明,秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温异常能够持续到初冬。当秋季北大西洋马蹄型海温呈正(负)位相时,初冬北大西洋副极地和副热带海温异常通过加热(冷却)异常能够引起局地对流层上层的辐散(辐合)运动,并且激发出南、北两支Rossby波列。其中,北支波列由北大西洋副极地向东北方向传播至巴伦支海附近,然后沿西伯利亚向东南方向传播至我国上空;南支波列由北大西洋副热带向东传播至我国上空。在南、北支波列的影响下,我国上空对流层上层出现异常辐合(辐散),与之伴随的异常下沉(上升)运动使得我国上空云量减少(增加),到达地表的短波辐射增加(减少),同时地表向低层大气传输的长波辐射增加(减少),在非绝热加热的作用下,我国大部分地区气温偏高(偏低)。利用NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)模式模拟了北大西洋马蹄型海温异常对初冬大气环流、辐射强迫和气温的影响,模拟结果与观测资料统计分析结果基本一致,进一步表明该海温模态能够激发出遥相关波列,影响东亚大气环流异常,通过非绝热加热的作用影响我国气温异常的年际变化。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030410)Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202202403-2)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB40000000)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘By using the multi-taper method(MTM)of singular value decomposition(SVD),this study investigates the interdecadal evolution(10-to 30-year cycle)of precipitation over eastern China from 1951 to 2015 and its relationship with the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST).Two significant interdecadal signals,one with an 11-year cycle and the other with a 23-year cycle,are identified in both the precipitation and SST fields.Results show that the North Pacific SST forcing modulates the precipitation distribution over China through the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-related anomalous Aleutian low on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and Mongolia high(MH).During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 11-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin,whereas an intensified WPSH and MH caused the enhanced rain band to move northward to North China during the decay stage.During the development stage of the PDO cold phase associated with the 23-year cycle,a weakened WPSH and MH increased the precipitation over North China,whereas an intensified WPSH and the weakened MH increased the precipitation over South China during the decay stage.The 11-year and 23-year variabilities contribute differently to the precipitation variations in the different regions of China,as seen in the 1998flooding case.The 11-year cycle mainly accounts for precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin,while the 23-year cycle is responsible for the precipitation increase over Northeast China.These results have important implications for understanding how the PDO modulates the precipitation distribution over China,helping to improve interdecadal climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42025502]the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004].
文摘通过ICOADS(The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set)船测资料,验证了El Ni o引发的北印度洋(North Indian Ocean,NIO)海表温度(SST)的2次增暖过程。前人研究发现,第1次增暖发生在El Ni o盛期,源于El Ni o导致的大气环流变化产生了正的短波辐射及潜热通量异常;第2次增暖发生在El Ni o消亡的夏季,是由于反对称风场异常导致蒸发失热减少所造成。研究进一步发现,短波辐射和潜热通量在这两次增暖中都有着重要作用,但二者的作用在时间上并不一致。两次增暖过程都是短波辐射首先产生影响,其后才是风场导致的潜热通量的变化。两次增暖在东西两个海盆也存在差异,第1次增暖主要集中在阿拉伯海区域,第二次增暖在东西两个海盆都较明显。另外,通过El Ni o和La Ni a对比发现,ENSO对北印度洋SST的影响具有不对称性。El Ni o期间北印度洋产生2到3次增暖,而La Ni a只有第二年夏季的降温比较明显,强度也比较弱。
文摘Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.