In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algo...In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual's mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.展开更多
In this paper,an interacting multiple-model(IMM)method based on datadriven identification model is proposed for the prediction of nonlinear dynamic systems.Firstly,two basic models are selected as combination componen...In this paper,an interacting multiple-model(IMM)method based on datadriven identification model is proposed for the prediction of nonlinear dynamic systems.Firstly,two basic models are selected as combination components due to their proved effectiveness.One is Gaussian process(GP)model,which can provide the predictive variance of the predicted output and only has several optimizing parameters.The other is regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)model,which can improve the overfitting problem resulted by empirical risk minimization principle and enhances the overall generalization performance.Then both of the models are updated continually using meaningful new data selected by data selection methods.Furthermore,recursive methods are employed in the two models to reduce the computational burden caused by continuous renewal.Finally,the two models are combined in IMM algorithm to realize the hybrid prediction,which can avoid the error accumulation in the single-model prediction.In order to verify the performance,the proposed method is applied to the prediction of moisture content of alkali-surfactant-polymer(ASP)flooding.The simulation results show that the proposed model can match the process very well.And IMM algorithm can outperform its components and provide a nice improvement in accuracy and robustness.展开更多
In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intent...In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intentional tangential flying to radar and unintentional flying with large tangential speed. We proposed an interacting multiple model(IMM) particle filter which combines a constant velocity model and an acceleration model to handle maneuvering motions. We compared the IMM particle filter with a previous particle filter solution. Simulation results showed that the IMM particle filter outperforms the method in previous works in terms of tracking accuracy and continuity.展开更多
Measurements are always interfered with glint noise in a radar target tracking system, which makes the performance of traditional filtering fall sharply and even divergent.Against this problem, a new Interactive Multi...Measurements are always interfered with glint noise in a radar target tracking system, which makes the performance of traditional filtering fall sharply and even divergent.Against this problem, a new Interactive Multiple Model Particle Filter (IMMPF) algorithm is proposed for target tracking by introducing PF into Interactive Multiple Model (IMM).Different from the general method to select importance density function from PF, the particles are extracted from observation likelihood function within depending on observation noises.Observation noise is modelled, and the latest observation is fused, then the target can be effectively tracked.Finally, the optimized method is simulated with respect to bearings-only tracking of maneuvering target in a glint noise environment.Compared with the existing filtering algorithms, it turns out that the developed filtering algorithm is more efficient and closer to the real-time tracking requirement of high maneuvering targets.展开更多
In fault identification, the Strong Tracking Filter (STF) has strong ability to track the change of some parameters by whitening filtering innovation. In this paper, the authors give out a modified STF by searching th...In fault identification, the Strong Tracking Filter (STF) has strong ability to track the change of some parameters by whitening filtering innovation. In this paper, the authors give out a modified STF by searching the fading factor based on the Least Squared Estimation. In hybrid estimation, the well known Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) Technique can model the change of the system modes. So one can design a new adaptive filter — SIMM. In this filter, our modified STF is a parameter adaptive part and IMM is a mode adaptive part. The benefit of the new filter is that the number of models can be reduced considerably. The simulations show that SIMM greatly improves accuracy of velocity and acceleration compared with the standard IMM to track the maneuvering target when 2 model conditional estimators are used in both filters. And the computation burden of SIMM increases only 6% compared with IMM.展开更多
An explicit model management framework is introduced for predictive Groundwater Levels(GWL),particularly suitable to Observation Wells(OWs)with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The framework implements Multiple ...An explicit model management framework is introduced for predictive Groundwater Levels(GWL),particularly suitable to Observation Wells(OWs)with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The framework implements Multiple Models(MM)under the architecture of organising them at levels,as follows:(i)Level 0:treat heterogeneity in the data,e.g.Self-Organised Mapping(SOM)to classify the OWs;and decide on model structure,e.g.formulate a grey box model to predict GWLs.(ii)Level 1:construct MMs,e.g.two Fuzzy Logic(FL)and one Neurofuzzy(NF)models.(iii)Level 2:formulate strategies to combine the MM at Level 1,for which the paper uses Artificial Neural Networks(Strategy 1)and simple averaging(Strategy 2).Whilst the above model management strategy is novel,a critical view is presented,according to which modelling practices are:Inclusive Multiple Modelling(IMM)practices contrasted with existing practices,branded by the paper as Exclusionary Multiple Modelling(EMM).Scientific thinking over IMMs is captured as a framework with four dimensions:Model Reuse(MR),Hierarchical Recursion(HR),Elastic Learning Environment(ELE)and Goal Orientation(GO)and these together make the acronym of RHEO.Therefore,IMM-RHEO is piloted in the aquifer of Tabriz Plain with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The results provide some evidence that(i)IMM at two levels improves on the accuracy of individual models;and(ii)model combinations in IMM practices bring‘model-learning’into fashion for learning with the goal to explain baseline conditions and impacts of subsequent management changes.展开更多
In order to enhance the capability of tracking targets autonomously of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model for UAV path planning is established based on the PO...In order to enhance the capability of tracking targets autonomously of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model for UAV path planning is established based on the POMDP framework. The elements of the POMDP model are analyzed and described. The state transfer law in the model can be described by the method of interactive multiple model (IMM) due to the diversity of the target motion law, which is used to switch the motion model to accommodate target maneuvers, and hence improving the tracking accuracy. The simulation results show that the model can achieve efficient planning for the UAV route, and effective tracking for the target. Furthermore, the path planned by this model is more reasonable and efficient than that by using the single state transition law.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71401072)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China(No.BK20130814)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.NS2013064)
文摘In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual's mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation under Grant No.60974039National Natural Science Foundation under Grant No.61573378+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shandong province under Grant No.ZR2011FM002the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No.15CX06064A.
文摘In this paper,an interacting multiple-model(IMM)method based on datadriven identification model is proposed for the prediction of nonlinear dynamic systems.Firstly,two basic models are selected as combination components due to their proved effectiveness.One is Gaussian process(GP)model,which can provide the predictive variance of the predicted output and only has several optimizing parameters.The other is regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)model,which can improve the overfitting problem resulted by empirical risk minimization principle and enhances the overall generalization performance.Then both of the models are updated continually using meaningful new data selected by data selection methods.Furthermore,recursive methods are employed in the two models to reduce the computational burden caused by continuous renewal.Finally,the two models are combined in IMM algorithm to realize the hybrid prediction,which can avoid the error accumulation in the single-model prediction.In order to verify the performance,the proposed method is applied to the prediction of moisture content of alkali-surfactant-polymer(ASP)flooding.The simulation results show that the proposed model can match the process very well.And IMM algorithm can outperform its components and provide a nice improvement in accuracy and robustness.
基金Project supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.20060400313)partly by Zhejiang Postdoctoral Science Founda-tion of China (No. 2006-bsh-25)
文摘In airborne tracking,the blind Doppler makes the target undetectable,resulting in tracking difficulties. In this paper,we studied most possible blind-Doppler cases and summed them up into two types:targets' intentional tangential flying to radar and unintentional flying with large tangential speed. We proposed an interacting multiple model(IMM) particle filter which combines a constant velocity model and an acceleration model to handle maneuvering motions. We compared the IMM particle filter with a previous particle filter solution. Simulation results showed that the IMM particle filter outperforms the method in previous works in terms of tracking accuracy and continuity.
基金Foundation item： Supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China （No. 61074053, 61374114） and the Applied Basic Research Program of Ministry of Transport of China （No. 2011-329-225 -390）.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.40067116）, the Research Development Foundation of Dalian Naval Academy （No.K200821）.
文摘根据在目标追踪以及澄清的在水下的调遣的即时性能和可靠性的要求，运动展示在水下目标，交往多重模型算法基于模糊逻辑，推理(FIMM ) 被建议。调遣目标的模式被模型集合代表，包括经常的速度模型(CA ) ，歌手模型，和将近经常的速度在 FIMM 技术的水平拐弯的模型(HT ) 。模拟结果与常规 IMM，可靠性和即时性能相比显示出那在水下目标追踪能被 FIMM 改进算法。
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71271165)
文摘Measurements are always interfered with glint noise in a radar target tracking system, which makes the performance of traditional filtering fall sharply and even divergent.Against this problem, a new Interactive Multiple Model Particle Filter (IMMPF) algorithm is proposed for target tracking by introducing PF into Interactive Multiple Model (IMM).Different from the general method to select importance density function from PF, the particles are extracted from observation likelihood function within depending on observation noises.Observation noise is modelled, and the latest observation is fused, then the target can be effectively tracked.Finally, the optimized method is simulated with respect to bearings-only tracking of maneuvering target in a glint noise environment.Compared with the existing filtering algorithms, it turns out that the developed filtering algorithm is more efficient and closer to the real-time tracking requirement of high maneuvering targets.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China !( No.69772 0 3 1)
文摘In fault identification, the Strong Tracking Filter (STF) has strong ability to track the change of some parameters by whitening filtering innovation. In this paper, the authors give out a modified STF by searching the fading factor based on the Least Squared Estimation. In hybrid estimation, the well known Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) Technique can model the change of the system modes. So one can design a new adaptive filter — SIMM. In this filter, our modified STF is a parameter adaptive part and IMM is a mode adaptive part. The benefit of the new filter is that the number of models can be reduced considerably. The simulations show that SIMM greatly improves accuracy of velocity and acceleration compared with the standard IMM to track the maneuvering target when 2 model conditional estimators are used in both filters. And the computation burden of SIMM increases only 6% compared with IMM.
基金the University of Tabriz through a Grant scheme No.808.
文摘An explicit model management framework is introduced for predictive Groundwater Levels(GWL),particularly suitable to Observation Wells(OWs)with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The framework implements Multiple Models(MM)under the architecture of organising them at levels,as follows:(i)Level 0:treat heterogeneity in the data,e.g.Self-Organised Mapping(SOM)to classify the OWs;and decide on model structure,e.g.formulate a grey box model to predict GWLs.(ii)Level 1:construct MMs,e.g.two Fuzzy Logic(FL)and one Neurofuzzy(NF)models.(iii)Level 2:formulate strategies to combine the MM at Level 1,for which the paper uses Artificial Neural Networks(Strategy 1)and simple averaging(Strategy 2).Whilst the above model management strategy is novel,a critical view is presented,according to which modelling practices are:Inclusive Multiple Modelling(IMM)practices contrasted with existing practices,branded by the paper as Exclusionary Multiple Modelling(EMM).Scientific thinking over IMMs is captured as a framework with four dimensions:Model Reuse(MR),Hierarchical Recursion(HR),Elastic Learning Environment(ELE)and Goal Orientation(GO)and these together make the acronym of RHEO.Therefore,IMM-RHEO is piloted in the aquifer of Tabriz Plain with sparse and possibly heterogeneous data.The results provide some evidence that(i)IMM at two levels improves on the accuracy of individual models;and(ii)model combinations in IMM practices bring‘model-learning’into fashion for learning with the goal to explain baseline conditions and impacts of subsequent management changes.
基金supported by the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(20135153031 20135553035 2017ZC53033)
文摘In order to enhance the capability of tracking targets autonomously of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model for UAV path planning is established based on the POMDP framework. The elements of the POMDP model are analyzed and described. The state transfer law in the model can be described by the method of interactive multiple model (IMM) due to the diversity of the target motion law, which is used to switch the motion model to accommodate target maneuvers, and hence improving the tracking accuracy. The simulation results show that the model can achieve efficient planning for the UAV route, and effective tracking for the target. Furthermore, the path planned by this model is more reasonable and efficient than that by using the single state transition law.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （60634030）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （60702066, 6097219） and the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province （092300410158）.
