Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological syst...Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.展开更多
The purpose of improving weather forecast isto enhance the accuracy in weather prediction.An idealforecasting system would incorporate user-end information.In recent years,the meteorological community hasbegun to real...The purpose of improving weather forecast isto enhance the accuracy in weather prediction.An idealforecasting system would incorporate user-end information.In recent years,the meteorological community hasbegun to realize that while general improvements to thephysical characteristics of weather forecasting systems arebecoming asymptotically limited,the improvement fromthe user end still has potential.The weather forecastingsystem should include user interaction because user needsmay change with different weather.A study was conductedon the conceptual forecasting system that included adynamic,user-oriented interactive component.Thisresearch took advantage of the recently implementedTIGGE(THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)project in China,a case study that was conducted to test thenew forecasting system with reservoir managers in LinyiCity,Shandong Province,a region rich in rivers andreservoirs in eastern China.A self-improving forecastsystem was developed involving user feedback throughouta flood season,changing thresholds for flood-inducingrainfall that were responsive to previous weather andhydrological conditions,and dynamic user-oriented assessmentsof the skill and uncertainty inherent in weatherprediction.This paper discusses ideas for developinginteractive,user-oriented forecast systems.展开更多
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007)
文摘Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system （UIFS） emerging in recent years, the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system, which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target, the physical predictive and downscaling components, and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end. A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE （THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble; THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment） precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi, a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in east- ern China. The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information. Although the TIGGE results provided by existing na- tional/international operating models were independent from the user-end, the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.
基金This work was supported by the National Department Public Benefit Research Foundation of China(GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007).
文摘The purpose of improving weather forecast isto enhance the accuracy in weather prediction.An idealforecasting system would incorporate user-end information.In recent years,the meteorological community hasbegun to realize that while general improvements to thephysical characteristics of weather forecasting systems arebecoming asymptotically limited,the improvement fromthe user end still has potential.The weather forecastingsystem should include user interaction because user needsmay change with different weather.A study was conductedon the conceptual forecasting system that included adynamic,user-oriented interactive component.Thisresearch took advantage of the recently implementedTIGGE(THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)project in China,a case study that was conducted to test thenew forecasting system with reservoir managers in LinyiCity,Shandong Province,a region rich in rivers andreservoirs in eastern China.A self-improving forecastsystem was developed involving user feedback throughouta flood season,changing thresholds for flood-inducingrainfall that were responsive to previous weather andhydrological conditions,and dynamic user-oriented assessmentsof the skill and uncertainty inherent in weatherprediction.This paper discusses ideas for developinginteractive,user-oriented forecast systems.
