Construction of crash prediction model of freeway basic segment based on interactive influence of explanatory variables

In order to improve the prediction precision of the safety performance function （SPF） of freeway basic segments, design and crash data of 640 segments are collected from different institutions. Three negative binomial （NB） regression models and three generalized negative binomial （GNB） regression models are built to prove that the interactive influence of explanatory variables plays an important role in fitting goodness. The effective use of the GNB model in analyzing the interactive influence of explanatory variables and predicting freeway basic segments is demonstrated. Among six models, the two models （one is the NB model and the other is the GNB model. ） which consider the interactive influence of the annual average daily traffic （AADT） and length are more reasonable for predicting results. Furthermore, a comprehensive study is carried out to prove that when considering the interactive influence, the NB and GNB models have almost the same fitting performance in estimating the crashes, among which the GNB model is slightly better for prediction performance.

Influences of pika and simulated grazing disturbances on bare patches of alpine meadow in the Yellow River Source Zone

Bare patches in alpine meadow are the main manifestation of its degradation.The change of bare patches in an alpine meadow in the Yellow River Source Zone during 2018-2019 was studied in relation to the disturbances caused by plateau pika(Ochotona curzoniae)population and simulated grazing via artificial mowing both independently and interactively.The disturbance was set at three levels of high,medium and no disturbance(control group).Bare patches were mapped by from unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)images with fine resolution of 1 cm obtained in August 2018 and August 2019 in ArcGIS.The results showed that the total area of bare patches decreased by 112.05 m2 in sub-plots devoid of pika disturbance but increased by 126.37 m2 in other subplots.The highest rate of increase is 89.02%.The individual effect of pika exceeds the joint effect of pika and mowing disturbances.The sole effect of mowing is lower than the joint effect of pika disturbance and intensive mowing,but higher than the joint influence of pika disturbance and moderate mowing.Strong pika disturbance(14 per sub-plot)caused the influence of mowing from moderate to intensive to increase by five-fold.The area of bare patches treated with moderate mowing and no pika disturbance decreased at the highest pace(-37.22%).Intensive mowing and medium density pikas(100 pikas/ha)are considered the thresholds at which the bare patches start to expand.Even if the meadow is mowed at the medium and high intensity,the area of bare patches can be significantly reduced if plateau pika population is controlled to a low level.ANOVA analysis and longterm macro-scale satellite-derived results reveal that pika disturbance is more important in causing the bare patches to change than simulated grazing.Therefore,it is more important to control the number of pikas than to reduce grazing intensity to prevent the expansion of bare patches in the degraded alpine meadow in the study area.

Infl uencing Mechanism and Interaction of Muscovite on Thermal Decomposition of Ammonium Polyphosphate

The interaction mechanism and phase evolution of ammonium polyphosphate（APP）mixed with muscovite（APP/muscovite）were studied by TG,XRD and SEM,respectively,during heating.When the temperature is not higher than 300 ℃,muscovite has no effect on the thermaldecomposition of APP,and the initialdecomposition temperature of APP/muscovite at 283 ℃ is basically the same as the APP at 295 ℃,and the main thermaldecomposition products are polyphosphoric acid and NH_4H_2PO_4 at 300 ℃.The polyphosphoric acid,the decomposition products of APP,can enable K and Siout of muscovite and interact with muscovite chemically to generate Al_2O_3·2SiO_2,α-SiO_2 and phosphates（AlPO_4 and K_5P_3O_（10））compounds during 400 ℃-800 ℃,which own obvious adhesive phenomenon and porous structure with the apparent porosity of 58.4%.Further reactions between phosphates other than reactions among Al_2O_3·2SiO_2 and α-SiO_2 can generate KAlP_2O_7 at 1 000 ℃ and the density of residualproduct is improved by low melting point phosphate filling pore to form relatively dense structure and decrease the apparent porosity to 44.4%.The flame resistant and self-supported ceramic materials are expected to enhance the fire-retarding synergistic effect between APP and muscovite.

Investigation of interaction effect between static and rolling friction of corn kernels on repose formation by DEM

The coefficient of static friction(SF),the coefficient of rolling friction(RF)for particles are two key parameters affecting the repose angle formation and flow characteristics.In this paper,the interaction effects of SF and RF on the formation process of corn repose angle was investigated by the discrete element method.Firstly,five shape kinds of corn models(horse tooth,spherical cone,spheroid,oblate,and irregular shape)were established.Secondly,aluminum cylinder and organic glass box were used to conduct the simulation experiments with taking SF and RF as independent factors and seeing the repose angle as dependent value.Based on simulation results the regression equations were established.Simulation results showed the relation between two factors and the rotational kinetic energy is not nonlinear,and SF does not significantly restrict the flow of corn models after increasing the flow direction,and the effect of SF on the contact number between corns and the bottom plate is remarkable,while the effect of RF on the contact number is not remarkable.Finally,the interaction effect of two factors on the repose angle was analyzed by variance analysis and results showed SF and RF all have a significant impact on the repose angle.Moreover,their interaction effect has an impact on the repose angle.