Interannual Variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.

Simulated Change in the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century

This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO–monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 （CMIP3） coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index （DMI） was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation （SD） was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble （MME） results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI： 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, ＂the strong get stronger＂. Another finding was that ENSO–monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO–summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.

Quantifying the Contribution of Track Changes to Interannual Variations of North Atlantic Intense Hurricanes

Previous studies have linked interannual variability of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity in the North Atlantic basin(NA)to Sahelian rainfall,vertical shear of the environmental flow,and relative sea surface temperature(SST).In this study,the contribution of TC track changes to the interannual variations of intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin is evaluated through numerical experiments.It is found that that observed interannual variations of the frequency of intense hurricanes during the period 1958–2017 are dynamically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment.Track changes can account for~50%of the interannual variability of intense hurricanes,while no significant difference is found for individual environmental parameters between active and inactive years.The only significant difference between active and inactive years is in the duration of TC intensification in the region east of 60°W.The duration increase is not due to the slow-down of TC translation.In active years,a southeastward shift of the formation location in the region east of 60°W causes TCs to take a westward prevailing track,which allows TCs to have a longer opportunity for intensification.On the other hand,most TCs in inactive years take a recurving track,leading to a shorter duration of intensification.This study suggests that the influence of track changes should be considered to understand the basin-wide intensity changes in the North Atlantic basin on the interannual time scale.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

Influences of Climate Change and Its Interannual Variability on Surface Energy Fluxes from 1948 to 2000

Understanding changes in land surface processes over the past several decades requires knowledge of trends and interannual variability in surface energy fluxes in response to climate change. In our study, the Community Land Model version 3.5 （CLM3.5）, driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observational surface climate data from Princeton University, is used to obtain global distributions of surface energy fluxes during 1948 to 2000. Based on the climate data and simulation results, long-term trends and interannual variability （IAV） of both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes for this span of 50＋ years are derived and analyzed. Regions with strong long-term trends and large IAV for both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes are identified. These analyses reveal seasonal variations in the spatial patterns of climate and surface fluxes; however, spatial patterns in trends and IAV for surface energy fluxes over the past ～50 years do not fully correspond to those for climatic variables, indicating complex responses of land surfaces to changes in the climatic forcings.

Assessing MODIS Land Cover Products over China with Probability of Interannual Change

Accurate and up-to-date land cover data are important for climate-change modeling. Quality assessment is becoming critical, as many satellite-based land cover products of differing scales have been released to meet the needs of scientific studies. In this study, the authors assessed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) land cover products by analyzing the probability of interannual change from 2001 to 2012. The authors found that, cumulatively, 43.0% of MODIS land cover had changed over China from 2001 to 2012 at least once. Of this percentage, 12.1% was considered unreasonable change, 6.1% was considered reasonable change, and areas of confusion accounted for about 24.8%, giving rise to great uncertainty in the products. MODIS Collection 51 products clearly have less uncertainty than the Collection 5 products. Areas of reasonable change occurred in transition zones of ecological, biophysical, and climate gradients, while areas of unreasonable change appeared in heterogeneous landscapes. The misclassifications at three spatial scales of horizontal grids used in regional climate models occurred largely in the heterogeneous landscapes, and the areal percentage of misclassification decreased with larger horizontal grid spacing. In addition, the misclassifications in MODIS products often occurred among specific classes, which are geographically, ecologically, and spectrally similar, with low discriminative spectral-temporal signals. The effect of classification uncertainty should be made known, and further improvements are still needed for application in regional climate models. The authors' findings have important implications for better understanding the uncertainties of MODIS land cover products, and for improving the land surface parameterization for regional climate models.

LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE PATTERNS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DURING THE RECENT 100 YEARS

The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than 50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the 2Ttest, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity

The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study.The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s,which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM.From 1961 to 1989,the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence.While in 1990 to 2020,the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced,via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response,respectively.The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM,resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.

Interannual Changes of Land Surface Radiation Components in Loess Plateau and Their Responses to Climate Change

In this paper,land surface observation data at semi-arid climate and environmental observation station（ SACOL station） of Lanzhou University during 2006- 2012 and the data of Yuzhong meteorological station were used to analyze the responses of land surface radiation budget components to climate fluctuation,study the interannual variability of surface albedo,and discuss the feedback of various land surface process parameters on the interannual fluctuations of temperature and precipitation in Loess Plateau. According to the type of precipitation in Loess Plateau,the year was divided into winter and summer in order to get more significant interannual variability and correlation. The results showed that the trends of temperature and precipitation during 2006- 2012 were consistent with the warming and drying total trend in recent years in Loess Plateau. Shallow surface soil moisture and temperature showed a good response to temperature and precipitation,and the annual variation of summer half year had greater impact on the trend in the whole year. Incident solar radiation increase was major reason for climate warming in the Loess Plateau region.The combined effect of climatic factors was the reason for the change of surface albedo. Through the distinguish inquiry by winter and summer data,it was obtained that most correlations between summer radiation components and climatic factors have been improved,and partial correlations between winter radiation components and climatic factors have been increased.

Interannual Variation of Tropical Night Frequency in Beijing and Associated Large-Scale Circulation Background

This study examined the variability in frequency of tropical night occurrence （i.e., minimum air tem- perature 25℃） in Beijing, using a homogenized daily temperature dataset during the period 1960–2008. Our results show that tropical nights occur most frequently in late July and early August, which is consis- tent with relatively high air humidity associated with the rainy season in Beijing. In addition, year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence indicates that the tropical nights have appeared much more frequently since 1994, which can be illustrated by the yearly days of tropical nights averaged over two periods： 9.2 days of tropical nights per year during 1994–2008 versus 3.15 days during 1960–1993. These features of tropical night variations suggest a distinction between tropical nights and extreme heat in Beijing. We further investigated the large-scale circulations associated with the year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence in July and August, when tropical nights appear most frequently and occupy 95% of the annual sum. After comparing the results in the two reanalysis datasets （NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40） and considering the possible effects of decadal change in the frequency of tropical nights that occurred around 1993/94, we conclude that on the interannual time scale, the cyclonic anomaly with a barotropic structure centered over Beijing is responsible for less frequent tropical nights, and the anticyclonic anomaly is responsible for more frequent occurrence of tropical nights over Beijing.

Latitudinal and interannual variations of the spring phytoplankton bloom peak in the East Asian marginal seas

Combined studies of latitudinal and interannual variations of annual phytoplankton bloom peak in East Asian marginal seas(17°–58°N, including the northern South China Sea(SCS), Kuroshio waters, the Sea of Japan and the Okhotsk Sea) are rarely. Based on satellite-retrieved ten-year(2003–2012) median timing of the annual Chlorophyll a concentration(Chl a) climax, here we report that this annual spring bloom peak generally delays from the SCS in January to the Okhotsk Sea in June at a rate of(21.20±2.86) km/d(decadal median±SD). Spring bloom is dominant feature of the phytoplankton annual cycle over these regions, except for the SCS which features winter bloom. The fluctuation of the annual peak timing is mainly within ±48 d departured from the decadal median peak date, therefore this period(the decadal median peak date ±48 d) is defined as annual spring bloom period. As sea surface temperature rises, earlier spring bloom peak timing but decreasing averaged Chl a biomass in the spring bloom period due to insufficient light is evident in the Okhotsk Sea from 2003 to 2012. For the rest of three study domains, there are no significant interannual variance trend of the peak timing and the averaged Chl a biomass. Furthermore this change of spring phytoplankton bloom timing and magnitude in the Okhotsk Sea challenges previous prediction that ocean warming would enhance algal productivity at high latitudes.

Poor oncologic outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with intra-abdominal infection after hepatectomy

AIM: To evaluate the impact of postoperative infectious complications on hepatocellular carcinoma following curative hepatectomy.METHODS:We performed a retrospective analysis of200 hepatocellular carcinoma patients who underwent hepatectomy at our institution between September2003 and June 2011.The patients’demographics,clinicopathological characteristics and postoperative infectious complications were analyzed.The ClavienDindo classification was adopted to assess the severity of complications.The dynamic change in the neutrophilto-lymphocyte ratio,defined as the absolute neutrophil count divided by the absolute lymphocyte count,after surgery was also investigated.The observation endpoints for this study were recurrence-free survival and overall survival of the patients.Statistical analysis of the survival curves was performed using the KaplanMeier method and the log-rank test.The prognosticvalue of each variable for predicting prognosis was assessed via multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.The cutoff score for each variable was selected based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.All statistical tests were two-sided,and significance was set at P<0.05.RESULTS:The median age of the patients was 49years,and the majority of patients were male(86%)and had been infected with hepatitis B virus(86%).The 30-d postoperative infectious complication rate was34.0%(n=68).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that postoperative infection was significantly correlated with tumor recurrence(P<0.001).The postoperative intra-abdominal infection group exhibited a worse prognosis than the non-intra-abdominal infection group(P<0.001).A significantly increased incidence of postoperative intra-abdominal infection was observed in the patients with hepatic cirrhosis(P=0.028),concomitant splenectomy(P=0.007)or vascular invasion(P=0.026).The patients who had an elevated postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio change(>1.643)clearly exhibited poorer recurrence-free survival than those who did not(P=0.009),although no significant correlation was observed between overall survival and the change in the postoperative neutrophilto-lymphocyte ratio.Based on multivariate analysis,hepatitis B surface antigen positivity,Child-TurcottePugh class B,an elevated postoperative neutrophilto-lymphocyte ratio change and intra-abdominal infection were significant predictors of poor recurrencefree survival.Hepatic cirrhosis,the maximal tumor diameter and intra-abdominal infection were significant predictors of overall survival.CONCLUSION:Postoperative intra-abdominal infection adversely affected oncologic outcomes,and the change in postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio was a good indicator of tumor recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after curative hepatectomy.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION ON THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

In this work,an index of tropical 20-90 d oscillation(intra-seasonal oscillation;ISO)in the western North Pacific(WNP)was determined via the combined empirical orthogonal function(EOF)method using daily outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)field data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA),daily wind field data(at 850 hPa)from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and referencing the Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO)index proposed by Wheeler and Hendon.An in-depth investigation was conducted to examine the impact of the ISO on changes in tropical cyclone(TC)tracks in the WNP during different ISO phases.The research results indicate that during the easterly phase of the ISO,under the impact of the northeastern airflow of anti-cyclonic ISO circulation,the easterly airflow south of the western Pacific subtropical high is relatively weak,and TCs generated in the subtropical high tend to change their tracks east of 140°E;during the westerly phase,there is a relatively high probability that TCs change their tracks west of 140°E.This work also analyzed the ISO flow field situation in cases of typhoons and determined that the track of a tropical cyclone will experience a sudden right turn when the center of the ISO cyclonic(anti-cyclonic)circulation coincides with that of the cyclone.

Interannual Variation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Dust Deposition on Typical Region of Chaihe Basin

[Objective]The aim was to study the interannual changes of atmospheric dust deposition and quantity of combustible dust-fall in Chaihe basin.[Method]Taking Chaihe Basin in south Dianchi as study area,the atmospheric dust deposition and combustible substances in the residential,chemical area,sand production area and watershed in Chaihe basin were measured.The pollution and interannual changes of atmospheric dust in Chaihe basin were discussed.[Result]In the residential,chemical area,sand production area and watershed,the amount of sand was the highest in sand production area and lowest in the watershed.While the dust amount in the chemical area and watershed areas were lower than sand production area and higher than watershed area.In the four chosen areas,the highest value of dust appeared in autumn and the lowest value appeared in precipitation season.Sand in other months changed and the change scale was large,which indicated that the meteorological condition had large influences on dust.Relevance analysis indicated that the dust in sand production area showed positive relevance to flammable amount of dust.Dust and flammable amount had positive relevance.[Conclusion]The study provided theoretical basis for the atmospheric pollution situation in Chaihe Basin.

碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论:Ⅱ.空间统筹

《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)倡导缔约方承担“共同但有区别”的减排责任,指出“各缔约方应当在公平的基础上,根据它们共同但有区别的责任和各自的能力,为人类当代和后代的利益保护气候系统。”《联合国气候变化框架公约》体现出应对气候变化两个维度的公平性,即区域公平性和代际公平性。其中,区域公平性一般指国家之间应对气候变化的责任分担问题(如各国的减排目标设定、排放配额分配等)。作为碳减排“时-空-效-益”统筹理论系列论文的组成部分,围绕气候治理中区域公平性与主体间博弈问题,构建了空间统筹方法,应用于全球和国家层面最优减排路径研究,科学回答了各区域主体减排责任分担及局部与整体减排协同关系问题,为统筹局部减排与整体减排提供方法基础。

An Assessment of the Projected Future Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics in Uganda

Rainfall is a key climate parameter that affects most operations that affect human life, especially in the tropics. Therefore, understanding the various factors that affect the distribution and intensity of this rainfall is important for effective planning among the different stakeholders in the weather and climate sectors. This study aimed at understanding how intra seasonal rainfall characteristics, especially Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), in the two major rainfall seasons will change under two future climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Uganda, covering two future periods of 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. The results indicate a high likelihood of reduced consecutive rainfall days, especially over the Northeastern regions of the country, for both 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. However, the trends in the entire country for the two major rainfall seasons, March to May and September to November, are not significant. Nonetheless, the distribution of these days is important for most agricultural activities during different stages of crop growth. The consecutive dry days show a fairly increasing trend in the eastern part of the country, particularly in the second season of September to November. An increase in consecutive dry days implies more frequent dry spells in the midst of the growing season, potentially affecting some crops during critical growth stages.

1600-1900年渭南地区洪涝灾害多尺度时序特征及对降水的响应

目的 研究1600-1900年渭南地区洪涝灾害的多尺度时序特征及其对降水的响应,为认识该区洪涝灾害的发生机制和历史时期气候变化规律提供理论依据。方法 基于《中国三千年气象记录总集》等历史文献资料,利用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和Morlet小波分析等方法。结果 1600-1900年渭南地区的洪涝灾害具有显著的准3 a和6 a的年际,准12 a, 15 a, 28 a和57 a的年代际和准125 a和208 a的百年际周期变化;厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡可能是导致该区洪涝灾害发生的主要原因;该区洪涝灾害在年际尺度上的方差贡献率(68.34%)大于在年代际和百年尺度上的方差贡献率(24.0%和2.92%),这可能暗含着该地区洪涝灾害的年际振荡信号强于年代际和百年尺度的振荡信号。结论 1600-1900年渭南地区的洪涝灾害存在年际、年代际和百年际尺度变化特征,并与毗邻地区华山和中北地区的降水有着较好的响应。

塔里木河流域夏季降水年际和年代变化的环流异常

基于1961-2020年夏季(6-8月)NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和塔里木河流域38个气象站降水资料,使用5 a滑动平均分离出该流域夏季降水年代际和年际变化,选出年际变化典型的干年和湿年与年代际变化的干期(1963-1986年)和湿期(1989-2018年),分析与这两种时间尺度变化相关联的大气环流异常。结果表明:影响年代际变化的大气环流异常主要是大西洋和欧亚大陆的对流层位势高度场从西北至东南交替出现反气旋和气旋距平环流。在湿期,分别在蒙古国和中亚的反气旋和气旋距平环流加强,塔里木河流域东部和西部分别出现明显的东风和西南风异常,来自西北太平洋和印度洋的水汽增多;在干期则相反。影响年际变化的大气环流异常主要是:在湿年,塔里木河流域之外的西北部和东北部的对流层都为显著的反气旋距平环流,塔里木河流域西部对流层为气旋距平环流,流域东部对流层为反气旋和气旋距平环流影响区;从南北方向向塔里木河流域输送的水汽增多,北风的水汽输送增加较多,南风的水汽输送增加较少,来自北冰洋和印度洋水汽增多;在干年则相反。

基于WorldView-3遥感影像的福田红树林碳储量年际变化

红树林是热带亚热带地区特有的滨海蓝碳生态系统,然而其碳储量动态变化却鲜有报道。该文以深圳福田红树林为研究对象,基于2017年获取的WorldView-3高分辨率遥感影像以及地面样本点,采用面向对象的随机森林分类方法识别红树林优势群落冠层,反演并计算得到深圳福田红树林各优势群落面积。进一步,基于2017年、2020年和2023年3个时间段红树林群落实地调查数据,计算各优势群落碳储量,进而获得福田红树林群落碳储量空间分布及年际动态变化。结果表明:(1)随机森林算法的冠层识别总体精度为82.29%,Kappa系数为0.77;福田红树林分布面积为93.84 hm 2,其中秋茄(Kandelia obovata)分布面积最大(49.96 hm 2),白骨壤(Avicennia marina)、海桑(Sonneratia caseolaris)、无瓣海桑(S.apetala)、木榄(Bruguiera gymnorhiza)的面积依次为26.23、8.90、6.52、0.50 hm 2。(2)秋茄群落总碳储量最高,其次是白骨壤、海桑和无瓣海桑,木榄群落总碳储量最低。无瓣海桑和海桑的群落碳密度呈上升趋势且无瓣海桑群落碳密度在五个优势群落中最高,秋茄群落碳密度先升后降,白骨壤群落碳密度呈下降趋势,木榄群落碳密度变化不明显。总体而言,福田红树林优势群落碳储量在2017—2023年间变化不大,秋茄、无瓣海桑和海桑群落碳固存能力较强,白骨壤群落的碳密度逐年减少,而木榄群落碳密度相对稳定。该研究结果为评估福田红树林各优势群落固碳能力提供了数据基础,并对后续红树林恢复与管理提供科学依据。