ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly （SOTA） and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation （SODA）. The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following： 1） there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2） during the mature phase of E1Nifio, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of E1 Nifio, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Nifm event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3） the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the ＂atmospheric-bridge＂, where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.

Contrasting two spring SST predictors for the number of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclones （TCs） in the following peak typhoon season （June-October）： the northern tropical Atlantic （NTA） SST, and the SST gradient （SSTG） between the southwestern Pacific and western Pacic warm pool. The interannua[ and interdecadal variations of NTA SST and SSTG and their relationships to the number ofWNP TCs during 1950-2013 were compared. On the interdecadal timescale, SSTG showed better correlation with the number of WNP TCs than NTA SST. The interdecadal variation of NTA SST was closely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while that of SSTG was anti-correlated with the Central Pacific （CP） El Nino index at the interdecadal timescale. On the interannual timescale, both NTA SST and SSTG were modulated by two types of El Nino. The NTA SST revealed significant correlations with the number of WNPTCs beginning from the early 1960s; by contrast, SSTG showed significant correlations after the mid-1970s. Co-variability of NTA SST and SSTG existed after the late 1980s, induced by modulation from CP El Nino.The co-variability of these two spring SST predictors increased their prediction skill after the late 1980s, with enhanced correlation between the number of WNPTCs and the two predictors.

Discrepancies in boreal summer monsoon rainfall between GPCP and CMAP products during 1979–2014

This study compares the boreal summer monsoon （BSM） precipitation between the GPCP and CMAP products during 1979-2014. The authors apply temporal, spatial correlation and error evaluation methods to evaluate their discrepancies in terms of BSM distribution and summer rainfall interannual variability over the five BSM regions. The results suggest that the climatology of the seasonal evolution of BSM rainfall is reflected well in both datasets, and the summer rainfall anomalies of the two products are highly correlated. However, major diversity is found in the rainfall pattern and the magnitude in climatology over the oceanic monsoon areas, especially the western North Pacific monsoon region, as well as in the interannual variability of summer rainfall anomalies over the North Africa and India monsoon regions. Although inconsistency between the two datasets is evident before the 1990s, the use of their arithmetic mean is demonstrated to be an efficient way to reduce the uncertainty between them.

Combined impact of in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the northern East Asian low and western North Pacific subtropical high on East Asian summer rainfall

East Asian summer rainfall is affected by both the continental northern East Asian low （NEAL） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in the lower troposphere. This study investigates the joint effect of the two circulation factors on East Asian summer rainfall. It is found that the rainfall in East Asia behaves differently in the years with in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the NEAL and WNPSH. When the NEAL and WNPSH vary in phase, i.e. when they are both stronger, the rainfall anomaly shows a dipole pattern in East Asia and displays opposite changes between north and south of 30°N. When the two circulation factors vary out of phase, the rainfall anomaly is concentrated in the Yangtze River valley.