TRANSFORM THE MECHANISM OF RENMINBI’S EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE DEMAND OF MARKET ECONOMY——The academic report delivered at the Annual Meeting of NNCIFS on October 1993

Exchange rate functions under systems of centrallyplanned economy and market economy are quite different,and the mechanism to determine such exchange rate is alsodifferent. To adopt a socialist market economic system inChina, the exchange rate mechanism of Renminbi must bethoroughly transformed. To accomplish this goal, I believethere are three problems that must be solved: first,

Effects of soil drought stress on photosynthetic gas exchange traits and chlorophyll fluorescence in Forsythia suspensa

To clarify the changes in plant photosynthesis and mechanisms underlying those responses to gradually increasing soil drought stress and reveal quantitative relationships between photosynthesis and soil moisture,soil water conditions were controlled in greenhouse pot experiments using 2-year-old seedlings of Forsythia suspensa（Thunb.） Vahl. Photosynthetic gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence variables were measured and analyzed under 13 gradients of soil water content. Net photosynthetic rate（PN）, stomatal conductance（gs）, and water-use efficiency（WUE） in the seedlings exhibited a clear threshold response to the relative soil water content（RSWC）. The highest PNand WUEoccurred at RSWCof51.84 and 64.10%, respectively. Both PNand WUEwere higher than the average levels at 39.79% B RSWCB 73.04%. When RSWCdecreased from 51.84 to 37.52%,PN, gs, and the intercellular CO2 concentration（Ci）markedly decreased with increasing drought stress; the corresponding stomatal limitation（Ls） substantially increased, and nonphotochemical quenching（NPQ） also tended to increase, indicating that within this range of soil water content, excessive excitation energy was dispersed from photosystem II（PSII） in the form of heat, and the reduction in PNwas primarily due to stomatal limitation.While RSWCdecreased below 37.52%, there were significant decreases in the maximal quantum yield of PSII photochemistry（Fv/Fm） and the effective quantum yield of PSII photochemistry（UPSII）, photochemical quenching（qP）, and NPQ; in contrast, minimal fluorescence yield of the dark-adapted state（F0） increased markedly. Thus,the major limiting factor for the PNreduction changed to a nonstomatal limitation due to PSII damage. Therefore, an RSWCof 37.52% is the maximum allowable water deficit for the normal growth of seedlings of F. suspensa, and a water content lower than this level should be avoided in field soil water management. Water contents should be maintained in the range of 39.79% B RSWCB 73.04% to ensure normal function of the photosynthetic apparatus and high levels of photosynthesis and efficiency in F.suspensa.

A Comparison of Purchasing Power Parity between China and Japan

In this paper, the difference of income and consumption levels between Chinese and Japanese town dwellers＇ is compared, based on the purchasing power parity of each currency. The results using a historical series of the data and cross section data of the two countries are shown. And whenever the classification of Chinese and Japanese data is inconsistent, we reclassify Chinese material according to the Japanese classification.

Structural Changes in the Renminbi Exchange Rate Mechanism

This paper examines structural changes in China s exchange rate mechanism.For this purpose,we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate:a smoothing factor,a market factor,and a basket factor.We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005,treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks.Among other results,we find that the main impact of introducing a“counter-cyclical factor”is to weaken the role of the basket factor.We estimate structural breaks in data,assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown,and we find that,although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms,there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China-US trade conflict in May 2019.It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.

Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Historical Review, Experience and Prospect

The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.

Do China Mainland and SARs Constitute an Optimal Currency Area?Evidence from Nonlinearity and Stationarity Behavior Testing on Real Exchange Rates

In this article, we use the unrestricted two-regime autoregressive threshold model to test both nonlinearity and stationarity of China's real exchange rate against its Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions(SARs). Our main finding is that China's real exchange rate is neither linear nor stationary, indicating that the purchasing power parity does not hold between China Mainland and its two SARs, which implies, to certain extent, the three economies may not meet the condition of constituting an optimal currency area.

Micellar Exchange Kinetics of Quaternary Ammonium Type Gemini Surfactants Monitored by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

The dynamic NMR （DNMR） method was used to detect kinetic parameters of the molecular exchange process between monomers in bulk solution and those in the micelle for Gemini surfactants, 12-s-12 and 14-s-14 （s 2, 3 and 4）. The escape rate constant, k^- , was derived based on the simplified equations of DNMR theory, and the apparent activation energy of escape, Ea^- , was obtained based on the Arrhenius equation through temperature variation experiments. Results show that the orders of magnitude of k^- for 14-s-14 and 12-s-12 are respectively 10 and 103 s-1, Ea^- of 14-s-14 and 12-s-12 are respectively 54.04-73.64 and 33.42-47.09 kJ/rnol. Furthermore, k increases and Ea^- decreases with the spacer length growing. In combination with the rnicro-polarity measurements, it was revealed that molecules of 14-s-14 and 12-s-12 have to experience conformation changes when escaping from the rnicelles. The two-step molecular exchange mechanism for Gemini surfactants was therefore supported.

China＇s Approach to Its Exchange Rate Mechanism： Adaptability of BBC Rules

China＇s recent declaration of principles on its exchange rate mechanism has made it very clear that any move should be on China＇s own initiative; such a move should be sustainable and under control. China has adopted gradualism in the exchange rate reform process. On July 21st, 2005, China changed Renminbi （RMB） pariy （appreciation） by 2 percent, signaling the exchange market reform process. This paper is to study the past history of the crawling-peg of RMB on the US dollar with a view of its future reform. The flexibility provided by the crawling-peg still fits well with China＇s status quo. However, the flexible mechanism should follow the trend of China＇s economic development with well-timed parity changes. The extent of the fluctuation band rests upon China＇s ability to maintain its currency stability to counter future speculation and shocks. Only when the market mechanism is restored in China can an equilibrium RMB exchange rate be reached.

Is the Purchasing Power Parity Supported by the Data？

This report mainly examines whether the Purchasing Power Parity （PPP） theory is supported by the data. The data used in the report contains the exchange rate of US dollar against New Zealand dollar, Consumer Price Index （CPI） of the US, and Consumer Price Index of New Zealand. The time period of the data is from September 30th, 1914 to March 31st, 2010, the data were collected quarterly. Mathematical regressions and graphs are contained in the research. In this research, the simplified form of the PPP theory is analyzed, and then there is a comparison between the spotted exchange rates and the expected exchange rates. Finally, the observation on long-run PPP is explained. The key conclusion of this research is that, the PPP theory is not supported by the data, however, the long-run PPP does hold.

美联储调息与人民币汇率变化研究

为改善高通货膨胀的经济环境,2022年美联储宣布加息,不仅影响美国国内而且影响了包括中国在内的开放型经济国家。为提高实证分析结论的准确性,通过构建VAR模型,以此轮美联储加息为背景,选取2006年1月至2023年8月美元兑人民币汇率以及美国联邦基金利率等数据,逐步研究美联储调整利率后部分变量对人民币汇率的影响。研究结果表明,美联储调息的直接影响效果最为显著,且短期的影响效应大于长期。为此,在新发展阶段下,应建立强大的宏观审慎监管体系,适时干预外汇市场,以促进汇率改革与人民币汇率稳定。

人民币均衡汇率决定机制及其影响因素的作用分析——基于行为均衡汇率估算模型分析技术改进的研究

本文首先对经典行为均衡汇率模型简要解读。指出其在估算实践中,暗含技术上的严格假定。本文给出放松假定的改进。通过人民币均衡汇率估算的经验分析,对改进工作进行检验。为人民币均衡汇率估算研究搭建一个深入分析的技术平台。经验分析的主要结论是,人民币实际汇率短期存在低估,但与长期均衡汇率比较,其实际汇率一直存在高估的情况。鉴于均衡汇率水平的决定机制复杂,人民币汇率水平升值调整必须慎之又慎。

利率平价的人民币汇率与利率关系的实证研究

在评述利率平价及汇率超调理论模型的基础上,对我国1994年外汇体制改革后,人民币汇率波动及其与利率的关系进行实证分析.并针对利率平价理论在我国现阶段适用程度的差异,引入交易成本对利率平价模型进行修正,力求使其在我国金融市场进一步开放的条件,更好地解释人民币汇率、:利率、资本流动之间的关系.

基于GARCH模型的人民币汇率形成机制研究

本文通过构建扩展的GARCH模型,探讨了人民币汇率中间价形成机制、宏观经济基本面及央行调控等因素对人民币汇率中间价变动的影响。研究结果表明:在岸和离岸市场人民币即期汇率、人民币汇率指数及逆周期因子对中间价波动均有显著影响。宏观经济基本面上,通货膨胀率上升和中美两国利差收窄均会加剧中间价波动幅度,而外汇储备的回升和持续的贸易顺差对中间价形成有效支撑。央行调控方面对中间价变动的影响十分有限。此外,CFETS指数、美元指数以及VIX指数对人民币汇率中间价变动不存在非对称效应。

防虫网对节能日光温室通风性能影响的研究(英文)

自然通风是决定日光节能温室质能平衡和调节微生态环境平衡的重要因素。为了提高节能日光温室的环境管理和结构设计水平 ,有必要研究防虫网对日光温室通风性能的影响 ,以提高日光温室的绿色产品生产率。因此 ,运用气体衰减示踪技术和数理统计理论 ,研究了日光温室不同形式通风机构的通风性能。试验研究表明在通风口处装设防虫网会显著地减少日光温室的通风率 ,有时可高达 5 0 %。研究还表明 ,无论装设有无防虫网 ,卷膜通风机构比拉膜 (推膜 )通风机构都具有较大的通风率 ,有时前者是后者的 1.4倍左右。

人民币汇率对购买力平价的偏离及原因分析

笔者运用不限制对称性和比例性的三变量模型,利用中国与OECD 34个成员国1978—2010年的面板数据,对购买力平价理论是否适用于解释人民币汇率波动进行了实证检验。结果表明,人民币汇率的波动并不满足购买力平价理论,存在对购买力平价的偏离。进一步,根据实际汇率分解模型,从贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离和巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应两个方面,对人民币汇率偏离购买力平价的原因进行了分析。结果表明,贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离和巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应可以很好地解释人民币汇率对购买力平价的偏离。而且,相对于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,贸易品价格对一价定律的偏离对人民币实际汇率的影响程度更大。

香港离岸即期人民币汇率在境内外汇率关系研究中的作用

人民币境内即期与远期和NDF远期之关系研究中频繁出现结论相异的问题。本文认为其中的原因之一,应是境内人民币汇率中间价的央行掌控性质。香港人民币离岸市场的建立,表明人民币汇率形成有了境内即期和远期,以及境外香港离岸即期和NDF远期两个市场。本文采用相关因素分析法对香港离岸即期和境内央行掌控中间价汇率进行分析,分析表明两者不存在长期协整关系,香港离岸市场的自由市场性质成立,因之也就具有与NDF远期进行计量分析的逻辑基础。对香港离岸即期和NDF远期的检验表明,虽然香港离岸即期市场与NDF远期市场具有相关逻辑性,但香港即期目前还无法引导NDF远期市场。

基于解释结构模型的企业汇率风险应急机制构建研究

由于中国大多数企业缺少对汇率风险的管理,加之汇率波动幅度及波动频率的不确定性增加,使暴露于汇率风险中的企业数量和风险头寸增加。因此,建立科学合理的企业汇率风险应急机制具有现实意义。文章运用解释结构模型(ISM)对构建企业汇率风险应急机制及其影响因素进行了分析研究。通过构建模型,明确了建立企业汇率风险应急机制将受5个等级的16个因素影响,其中2个因素为直接影响因素,5个因素为基础性影响因素。文章试图为企业汇率风险应急机制构建提供理论依据,为企业汇率风险应急管理实践提供有效路径。

论购买力平价在资源经济研究中的应用

不同国家之间进行经济对比时通常用两种方法,一种是汇率转换法(简称汇率法),另一种是购买力平价法(PPP)。本文在前人研究的基础上,从横向和纵向比较了两种方法的差异,总结了一些变化规律,阐述了二者的优缺点。同时对两种方法在能源消费强度和人均能源消费量中的应用进行了比较,并对这两种方法产生差异的原因进行了讨论,认为购买力平价法更适合应用于资源经济领域的研究。

日元对美元汇率的变化及其原因分析

自实行浮动汇率制到20世纪90年代上半期,日元持续升值,成为主要的世界货币之一。决定这一长期走势的基本原因是日元对美元购买力平价的提高。而经济实力的消长则是购买力平价提高的物质基础。20世纪90年代以来,日元对美元的购买力平价趋于稳定,从而结束了日元长期升值的趋势。在上述过程中,国家的宏观经济政策、国际间利率差别、跨国资本流动以及一些突发事件的影响成为汇率在短期内波动的直接原因。