Real Interest Rates,Real Wages and Economic Restructuring—Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)

On the basis of research conducted by Long and Plosser(1983),this paper carries out an in-depth analysis on the relationship between real interest rates,real wage,and macro-economy and economic structure by simulating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model and comes to the following conclusions:(1) Increasing the level of real interest rates will expand the share of consumption in GDP,improve the macroeconomic structure,and promote steady economic development;(2) Increasing the level of real wages will enhance economic growth but will not change the economic structure of consumption and investments;(3) Increasing wages will enhance economic growth and expand its share in national income;(4) Increasing wages will not lower output level but will be favorable to the improvement of economic structure.Therefore,this paper argues for interest rates liberalization to achieve long-term,steady economic development in China.

实际利率、实际工资与经济结构调整

在Long&Plosser(1983)的基础上,本文通过构建、校准和模拟一个简单的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),就实际利率、实际工资变化对宏观经济及经济结构的影响进行了深入分析。结果表明:实际利率上升将提高消费占GDP的比重,改善宏观经济结构,促进经济的平稳发展;在劳动力市场存在价格粘性的情况下,实际利率上升不会降低产出水平,并有利于经济结构的改善。与传统观念不同的是,单纯提高实际工资虽能提高经济增长水平,但并不会改变消费投资的经济结构。因此,我们应充分利用当前的有利时机,推进利率市场化改革进程,实现中国经济的长远健康发展。