Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Earthquake relocation using a 3D velocity model and implications on seismogenic faults in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

To enhance the understanding of the geometry and characteristics of seismogenic faults in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,we relocated 14805 out of 16063 earthquakes(113°E-120°E,36°N-43°N)that occurred between January 2008 and December 2020 using the double-difference tomography method.Based on the spatial variation in seismicity after relocation,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into three seismic zones:Xingtai-Wen'an,Zhangbei-Ninghexi,and Tangshan.(1)The Xingtai-Wen'an Seismic Zone has a northeastsouthwest strike.The depth profile of earthquakes perpendicular to the strike reveals three northeast-striking,southeast-dipping,high-angle deep faults(>10 km depth),including one below the shallow(<10 km depth)listric,northwest-dipping Xinghe fault in the Xingtai region.Two additional deep faults in the Wen'an region are suggested to be associated with the 2006 M 5.1 Wen'an Earthquake and the 1967 M 6.3 Dacheng earthquake;(2)The Zhangbei-Ninghexi Seismic Zone is oriented north-northwest.Multiple northeast-striking faults(10-20 km depth),inferred from the earthquake-intensive zones,exist beneath the shallow(<10 km depth)Xiandian Fault,Xiaotangshan Fault,Huailai-Zhuolu Basin North Fault,Yangyuan Basin Fault and Yanggao Basin North Fault;(3)In the Tangshan Seismic Zone,earthquakes are mainly concentrated near the northeast-striking Tangshan-Guye Fault,Lulong Fault,and northwest-striking Luanxian-Laoting Fault.An inferred north-south-oriented blind fault is present to the north of the Tangshan-Guye Fault.The 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred at the junction of a shallow northwest-dipping fault and a deep southeast-dipping fault.This study emphasizes that earthquakes in the region are primarily associated with deep blind faults.Some deep blind faults have different geometries compared to shallow faults,suggesting a complex fault system in the region.Overall,this research provides valuable insights into the seismogenic faults in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.Further studies and monitoring of these faults are essential for earthquake mitigation efforts in this region.

Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years,China has implemented several measures to improve air quality.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years.How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future.To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region,this paper employs ensemble Kalman filtering(EnKF)for integrating the national ground monitoring pollutant observation data and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System(NAQPMS)simulation data to inversely estimate the emission rates of SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)over BTH region in February from 2014 to 2019.The results show that SO_(2),NOX,CO,and primary PM_(2.5)emissions in the BTH region decreased in February from 2014 to 2019 by 83%,37%,41%,and 42%,while decreases in Beijing during this period were 86%,67%,59%,and 65%,respectively.Compared with the prior emission inventory,the inversion emission inventory reduces the uncertainty of multi-pollutant simulation in the BTH region,with simulated root mean square errors of the monthly average concentrations of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO reduced by 41%,30%,31%,and 22%,respectively.The average uncertainties of SO_(2),NOX,PM_(2.5),and CO inversion emissions in2014-19 are±14.03%yr^(-1),±28.91%yr^(-1),±126.15%yr^(-1),and±43.58%yr^(-1).Compared with the uncertainty of MEIC emission,the uncertainties of all species changed by+2%yr^(-1),-2%yr^(-1),-26%yr^(-1),and-4%yr^(-1),respectively.The spatial distribution results illustrate that air pollutant emissions are mainly distributed over the eastern and southern BTH regions.The spatial gap between the inversion emissions and MEIC emissions was further closed in 2019 compared to 2014.The results of this paper can provide a new reference for assessing changes in air pollution emissions over the BTH region in recent years and validating a bottom-up emission inventory.

Spatial Variability of PM_(2.5) Pollution in Imbalanced Natural and Socioeconomic Processes: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Accurately identifying and quantifying the factors influencing PM_(2.5) pollution is of great significance for the prevention and control of pollution. However, the redundancy among potential factors of PM_(2.5) may be overlooked. Meanwhile, the inconsistent spatial distribution of the natural and socioeconomic conditions brings unique implications for the cities within a region, which may lead to an uncertain understanding of the relationship between pollution and environmental factors. This study focused on the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH) Region, China, which presents complex and varied background conditions. Potential impact factors on PM_(2.5) were firstly screened by combining systematic cluster analysis with a random forest recursive feature elimination algorithm. Then, the representative multi-factor responsible for PM_(2.5) pollution in the region during the key period of 2014–2018(when the strict national air pollution control policy was implemented). The results showed that the key driving factors of PM_(2.5) pollution in the BTH cities are different, indicating that the uniqueness of a city will have an impact on the leading causes of pollution. Further discussion shows that air control policy provides an effective way to improve air quality. This study aims to deepen the understanding of the risk drivers of air pollution within the BTH Region. In the future, it is recommended that more attention should be paid to the specific differences between the cities when formulating PM_(2.5) concentration control measures.

Assessing the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using spatial panel data model

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the vanguard of economic development in northern China.Its manufacturing industry is more and more developed,but environmental pollution is also more serious.Based on the data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2021,the paper verifies the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on environmental pollution.Both manufacturing agglomeration and environmental pollution are dependent on spatial distribution.Therefore,the paper selects spatial econometric model to study.First,the spatial lag model and spatial error model are constructed,and then the spatial lag model is selected through the results of OLS regression,LM Test and Hausman test,and the empirical process is carried out.Finally,the empirical results are analyzed and the conclusion is drawn.

多元主体协同共建现代产业学院的模式创设与推进路径

现代产业学院作为当前校企合作、产教融合及科教融汇的一种办学综合体,其生成与发展具有特殊的时代特征与价值意蕴。文章就现代产业学院概念内涵、多元功能、发展现状等问题作了分析梳理。分析了现实困境及共性个性问题;从模式创设、建立机构、共建专业、共育师资、课程建设、开发项目、文化培育七个方面阐释了建设内容和方法;提出了“1+1+N”组建模式、“三个提升”“1+1>2”“1+1+N>2+N”协同效应、“7+X”功能拓展等观点。

“海洋生物学”课程思政元素挖掘初探

“海洋生物学”是涉海高校本科生一门非常重要的专业基础课,在海洋科学、海洋环境科学等专业人才培养中具有重要作用。面对国家海洋生物分类专业人才需求和枯燥繁多的海洋生物分类知识,通过海洋生物分类科学思维方法的训练,在海洋生物学课程思政建设探索和实践过程中凝练出“六个一精神”思政元素。期待通过“海洋生物学”课程的“六个一精神”融入课程思政建设的总体布局,和其他思政元素一起,共同坚定大学生的理想信念,培养出建设海洋强国的高素质专业人才。

可达性视角下高铁对于长三角地区“融城化、同城化、一体化”的空间影响

作为贯穿城市区域的重要通道,高铁的网络性与外部性使其呈现多维空间尺度属性,但现有研究缺乏对高铁多维空间效应的系统性分析。鉴于此,研究立足高铁的多维空间尺度属性,从城市内部、边界、区域3种尺度,架构不同尺度条件下可达性评价方法,系统测度高铁对于城市和区域发展的综合空间影响。结果发现:①“一城多站”已成为长三角城市高铁站点空间组织的普遍模式,高铁使中心城区和郊区县城的联系更加紧密,高铁公交化时代融城化发展趋势将更加明显。尤其对于浙江省而言,高铁已经成为其内部城市中心城区和郊区县城联系的重要纽带。②高铁已经成为重组相邻城市间生产、生活的关键纽带和桥梁,但从邻界尺度可达性指数空间分布格局来看,同城化发展格局存在明显的空间异质性特征,当前已初步形成7个同城化水平较高的区域,且基本围绕长三角重要中心枢纽城市(上海、南京、杭州、温州、合肥、徐州、无锡)展开。③高铁具有明显的中长途运输优势,使得其对区域一体化发展的影响更大,高铁影响下长三角一体化格局呈现较为明显的“Z”字型格局,且已经向西延伸至合肥,但周边城市参与区域一体化发展的程度依旧较低。

基于扎根理论探讨韦企平的道术经验

名老中医通过长期理论学习和临床实践,逐渐形成了各具特色的医术经验和医道精神,是中医药领域珍贵的财富。韦企平教授行医教学50余载,本文基于“扎根理论”以期挖掘韦教授行医教学行为中深层的医术和医道规律。医术方面,其提出了辨病辨证结合→中医眼科四诊→顾护后天之本→重视针药并用的诊疗思路;医道方面,通过“为学、为师和为医”3个方面的价值体系分析,反映了其大仁大义、厚德济生的医道精神,二者最终形成了“以术观道,以道驭术”的紧密关系。以期更加全面的传承韦教授的道术经验。

从“药食互变”角度探究张锡纯食疗思想

张锡纯食疗思想丰富,从“药食互变”角度探究其食疗思想,发现可将张锡纯食疗思想总结为“变食为药,变药为食”,前者重视变食为药,将食物与药物配伍治疗各类病症;后者讲究变药为食,将药物做成日常饮食,达到养生、保健等作用。探究张锡纯食疗思想,对中医药食配伍治疗疾病,以及运用药膳保健有一定参考意义。

长江经济带城乡地域功能融合发展的时空格局与响应过程

城乡地域功能融合发展是纾解国土空间冲突的关键路径。该研究运用熵权TOPSIS、核密度估计和融合发展度模型分析长江经济带130个城市的城镇、乡村地域功能水平,以及城乡地域功能融合发展的时空格局,采用双变量空间自相关模型识别其响应过程。结果表明:①长江经济带各市城镇、乡村地域功能呈上升趋势,城镇地域功能形成“点-团-面”的分布格局,区域差异逐渐收窄;乡村地域功能呈“簇团”状分布格局,上中下游的地理梯度分异现象突出。②长江经济带各市城乡地域功能由融合过渡型向融合提升型突变发展,融合发展水平呈现下游>中游>上游的特征,由以中心城市为节点向以核心城市群为组团的分布格局演进,东西部极化加剧、省域内部差异扩大。③长江经济带城镇与乡村地域功能相互促进发展作用显著增强,先后历经需求融合、引导融合和自发融合等阶段,融合发展过程呈现由融合过渡到融合提升再到融合优化的螺旋式上升规律。根据研究结论提出以下建议:①上游地区以政策引导发展为契机,吸引下游地区资金、技术、劳动密集型产业向上游地区转移,集中资源全面推进乡村振兴,促进城镇、乡村地域功能双提升。②中游地区着力推进城乡一体化发展,强化武汉、长沙和南昌等区域性中心城市城镇地域功能的辐射带动效应,拉动乡村地域功能发育。③下游地区需促进城镇的生产、生活活动逐步向乡村转移,促进农村土地流转和农业生产经营规模化,助推城乡地域功能优质融合。

产教融合背景下社会体育专业创新创业人才社会需求及能力培养研究

探讨产教融合背景下社会体育专业创新创业人才的社会需求及其能力培养,旨在为社会体育专业创新创业人才的社会需求和能力培养提供理论和实践指导。结果表明:社会体育领域对创新创业人才的需求呈现多样化和个性化趋势。创新创业人才需要具备综合素质、跨学科能力和创新创业意识,以适应市场变化和技术进步带来的挑战。能力培养是提高竞争力的关键,可通过校企加强合作、建立实践教学基地和创新创业孵化平台来提供实习和实践机会,培养创新创业能力和实践经验。政府的支持和引导也是必要的,如制定相关政策、提供创业资金和税收优惠,为创新创业人才创造良好环境。

管道入侵报警和泄漏检测的智能化发展

第三方破坏、自然灾害破坏和管道的老化及腐蚀是天然气长输管道线路日常运行的安全隐患。为保障管道的安全运行,综合应用入侵报警、泄漏检测和其他安防技术,搭建综合智能安防监控平台,分析了几种常用的入侵报警和泄漏检测技术,明确了天然气长输管道行业以光纤传感技术作为入侵报警和泄漏检测系统的发展方向。以阿联酋天然气管网为例,分析了各种技术在特定环境中应用的情况,探讨我国输气管道项目实际应用的问题。入侵报警和泄漏检测在天然气管道上的应用越来越多,需要进一步开放平台接口,接入门禁系统、扩音对讲系统、巡更系统、动力环境监测系统,共同组成多系统融合的综合智能安防监控平台。依托5G网络、人工智能、云计算、大数据、物联网等智能技术的优势,推进管道运营体系改革,实现管道行业由传统运行模式逐步向数字化、智能化发展。

一种片内集成的高精度振荡器

在传统的RC振荡器结构基础上提出了一种片内集成的高精度振荡器电路,采用温度补偿电路对充电电流进行温度补偿。采用电容校准电路对输出频率进行校正。采用延迟消除电路减少比较器的延迟。最终达到振荡器高精度高稳定性的要求。基于CSMC的0.18μm BCD工艺,在电压4 V、温度27℃、TT条件下,输出频率为2 MHz,占空比为50%,通过频率校准,精度最终可达到±0.2%。该振荡器具有高精度、高稳定性、体积小、易于集成的特点,能够满足大多数片内集成芯片的需求。

炼化一体化乙烯装置清洁生产评估与优化

实现乙烯装置清洁生产是达成“双碳”目标的必然要求,也是提高企业利润和环境绩效、促进社会可持续发展的重要手段。文章综合考虑经济效益、综合能耗和CO_(2)排放,提出了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的乙烯装置清洁生产潜力评估与优化方法。利用该方法对某炼化一体化乙烯裂解装置进行案例研究,结果表明该方法可以帮助乙烯装置实现更好的清洁生产。

学习评价中信息技术的运用策略研究

学习评价是教学过程的重要环节。文章从信息技术支持的学习评价的成功案例和校园可利用的软硬件条件入手,针对传统学习评价中存在的问题,提出了信息技术和学习评价的深度融合策略。本文以新课程标准和发展性评价理论等作为基础,利用校本资源和其他成功经验作为样本,在实践中探索构建多样化的评价体系。研究表明,在学习评价中有意识地采用这些策略,能激发学生、教师和学校的内在发展动力。

基于空间句法的高铁站域地下空间连通整合性能研究

随着高速铁路的蓬勃发展,高铁站域地下空间的连通整合问题成为影响通行效率的重要因素之一。然而,当前研究多从定性分析出发,缺乏针对空间内部的系统性定量研究。基于此,文章以高铁站域地下空间的连通整合性能为主要研究对象,结合其特征属性确定研究范围,以空间句法为主要定量分析方法,构建了高铁站域地下空间连通整合模型,通过对现有案例的建模提出了两方面的优化方案,并进行了进一步的对比研究。研究表明:1)连通中心对于站域地下空间连通性能提升呈现较强的整体性;2)连通主轴对于站域地下空间连通性能提升呈现较强的局部性;3)高铁站域地下空间布局中可以考虑将连通轴与连通中心组合布置以提高连通能力。本文内容可为国内外高铁站域地下空间开发及连通整合性能提升提供参考。

intergral ((asinx+bcosx)/(csinx+dcosx))dx的一种简便算法及其推广

本文对给出了一种简便算法，并把它推广到形如的积分，其中f（x），g（x）满足f（x）＝αf（x）＋βg（x），g′（x）＝γf（x）＋λg（x），a、b、c、d、α、β、γ、λ均是实数．

雷视一体机在隧道交通流监控的研究与应用

基于雷达信号与视频信息的数据融合技术是近年来智能交通流监控的热点应用。现基于应用雷视一体摄像机在南京市横江大道未开通隧道的大量模拟试验,将试验结果和方法成功地应用到南京市燕子矶过江隧道的实际工程中。研究结果证明,在隧道环境使用雷视一体摄像机,能较好地实现车道级精度的车辆位置捕捉、跨画面接力跟踪、路段重演、车辆轨迹回溯等,并为车辆驾驶行为和事件分析提供更好的支撑能力。最后对应用场景和业务领域的拓展做了进一步的展望。

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.