Improved ENSO Forecasts by Assimilating Sea Surface Temperature Observations into an Intermediate Coupled Model

A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.

Testing a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Method Using an Improved Intermediate Coupled Model for ENSO Analysis and Prediction

A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.

Initial Error-induced Optimal Perturbations in ENSO Predictions, as Derived from an Intermediate Coupled Model

The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model （ICM）. The optimal initial errors （as represented by CNOPs） in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） and sea level anomalies （SLAs） were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier （SPB） phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.

Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO

Large biases exist in real-time ENSO prediction, which can be attributed to uncertainties in initial conditions and model parameters. Previously, a 4D variational （4D-Vat） data assimilation system was developed for an intermediate coupled model （ICM） and used to improve ENSO modeling through optimized initial conditions. In this paper, this system is further applied to optimize model parameters. In the ICM used, one important process for ENSO is related to the anomalous temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer （Te）, which is empirically and explicitly related to sea level （SL） variation. The strength of the thermocline effect on SST （referred to simply as ＂the thermocline effect＂） is represented by an introduced parameter, （l＇Te. A numerical procedure is developed to optimize this model parameter through the 4D-Var assimilation of SST data in a twin experiment context with an idealized setting. Experiments having their initial condition optimized only, and having their initial condition plus this additional model parameter optimized, are compared. It is shown that ENSO evolution can be more effectively recovered by including the additional optimization of this parameter in ENSO modeling. The demonstrated feasibility of optimizing model parameters and initial conditions together through the 4D-Var method provides a modeling platform for ENSO studies. Further applications of the 4D-Vat data assimilation system implemented in the ICM are also discussed.

A comparison of two global ocean-ice coupled models with different horizontal resolutions

A global eddy-permitting ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° by 0.25° is estab- lished on the basis of Modular Ocean Model version 4 （MOM4） and Sea Ice Simulator （SIS）. Simulation results are compared with those of an intermediate resolution ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of about 1° by 1°. The results show that the simulated ocean temperature, ocean current and sea ice concentration from the eddy-permitting model are better than those from the intermediate resolu- tion model. However, both the two models have the common problem of ocean general circulation models （OGCMs） that the majority of the simulated summer sea surface temperature （SST） is too warm while the majority of the simulated subsurface summer temperature is too cold. Further numerical experiments show that this problem can be alleviated by incorporating the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing into the vertical mixing scheme for both eddy-permitting and intermediate resolution models.

Synthesis and Crystal Structure of Squarate Complex ［CuLaSm（C_4O_4）_4（H_2O）_（16）］·2H_2O

CuLaSm(C4O4 )4(H2O)16]·2H2O was obtained as a single crystal from a mixture of squaric acid, lanthanum chloride, samarium chloride, and copper chloride in water. The complex crystallized in the monoclinic system, space group P2_1,with a=6. 728(1) . b=32. 117(9),c=8. 150(1) A ,β=111. 60(1),Z=2, M_r=1125. 24, V= 1637(1 ) A3, Dc= 2. 28g/cm3, μ(MoKα) = 38. 36 cm-1, F(000)= 1104, R= 0. 040 for 2823 independent observed reflections. The coordinated environments of the lanthanides are a 4-capped square antiprism and a 4,4, 4-tricapped trigonal prism, and that of the copper is a distorted octahedron. The complex is the first example that contains copper and two kinds of different lanthanides when the squarate is employed as the ligand.

Processes involved in the second-year warming of the 2015 El Nio event as derived from an intermediate ocean model

The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nio event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nio event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves(as indicated in sea level(SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nio event are consistent with current El Nio and Southern Oscillation theories.

Nonlinear Ekman Layer Theories and Their Applications

Based on the classical Ekman theory, a series of intermediate boundary layer models, which retain the nonlinear advective process while discard embellishments, have been proposed with the intention to understand the complex nonlinear features of the atmospheric boundary layer and its interaction with the free atmosphere. In this paper, the recent advances in the intermediate boundary-layer dynamic models are reviewed. Several intermediate models such as the boundary-layer models incorporating geostrophic momentum approximation, Ekman momentum approximation, and the weak nonlinear Ekman-layer model are a major theme. With inspection of the theoretical frameworks, the physical meaning and the limitations of each intermediate model axe discussed. It is found that the qualitative descriptions of the nonlinear nature in Ekman layer made by the intermediate models are fairly consistent though the details may be different. As the application of the intermediate models is concerned, the application of the intermediate models to the study of the topographic boundary layer, frontogenesis, low-level frontal structure, and low-level jet are especially summarized in this paper. It is shown that the intermediate boundary-layer models have great potential in illustrating the low-level structures of the weather and climate systems as they are coupled with the free atmospheric models. In addition, the important remaining scientific challenges and a prospectus for future research on the intermediate model are also discussed.