Renminbi Internationalization and Stability of the International Monetary System

This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.

The Institutional Supply of China＇s Participation in the International Monetary System Reform

There exist dual features of internationalization and regionalization in the current international monetary system, and the U.S. dollar is still in a dominant position in the system. A lack of relevant institutional constraints has led to institutional deficiencies and systematic risks in the international monetary system, and resulted in the frequent financial crises in the world in recent years. As an emerging economy closely related to the current international monetary system, China has responsibilities and obligations to participate actively in international monetary system reform and push forward international monetary system reform through institutional supply.

Research on the Problems and Countermeasures of Monetary Capital Internal Control in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)constitute the primary drivers of production within the nation’s existing enterprise landscape.They represent the most dynamic segment of the national economy and play a pivotal role in supporting economic growth,fostering employment,and enhancing people’s livelihoods.However,despite their significant and extensive organizational structures,only a fraction of these companies have established internal control systems,and even fewer possess robust ones.Building upon this premise and considering the prevailing circumstances of SMEs,this paper undertakes an empirical analysis of monetary fund management within this sector.It delves into the operational intricacies,exploring how monetary funds should be effectively implemented to ensure their safety and integrity.Furthermore,it proposes viable strategies to enhance the circulation efficiency of monetary funds,thereby maximizing benefits for enterprises.Addressing these challenges is crucial for SME managers striving to achieve sustainable profit growth and navigate the complexities of financial management.

Analysis of Disadvantages of International Monetary Fund

In the current world economic environment,the International Monetary Fund(IMF) has the function of stabilizing financial situation and economic growth.Since the end of the World War II,the IMF has aided many countries and regions during their financial crises.Though no one denies the key roles of IMF on these aspects,the "prescriptions" made by the IMF in order to respond to these crises have brought many criticisms.We must see the disadvantages in IMF while admitting its positive impact.

Neo-merchantalism： Open Trade, Open Currency, and Open Monetary System？

Neo-merchantalism is the use of national currency in international trade among countries to increase global trade. This is called as open currency in the study. Neo-merchantalism also includes open trade to facilitate trade among countries. Thirdly, neo-merchantalism covers International Monetary Fund （IMF）. Because IMF regulates and controls money flow among countries in international trade, neo-merchantalism could be presented as follows： neo-merchantalism = open trade ＋ open currency ＋ IMF. Open trade and open currency exist in merchantalism theory. But today, there is also IMF control. Therefore, neo-merchantalism = merchantalism ＋ IMF. Globalism started in 1990 in global markets. It increased the amount of global trade from 13 trillion dollars to 60 trillion dollars. Therefore, each country has 6%-7% economic growth in global markets in the 2000s. It is expected that neo-merchantalism theory doubles global trade up to 100 trillion dollars. Because each country uses its money to do intemational trade, IMF＇s restrictions are important in currency flow, as countries may overprint their money to do more trade that increases inflation rate in global economies. For example, emission of United States （US） dollars increased 50% after 2008 crises in American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve aims to stop quantitative enlargement policy in order to impede inflation in American economy. In neo-merchantalism, IMF can restrict money print and currency flow according to country＇s gross domestic product （GDP）, because quantity theory in economy requires that a country can issue its national currency according to its national GDP.

Study of International Coordination of Chinese Monetary Policy under Open Economy

Preliminary study is made to the international coordination of national monetary policy under economic globalization and informationalization. This paper uses Game Theory to analyze the operation effect of Chinese monetary policy. It suggests that the maximum effect of Chinese monetary policy can only be achieved by cooperation and coordination with international society.

Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

The Exorbitant Privilege of US Treasuries and China's Choices in the New Era

After the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971,US Treasuries replaced gold as the value benchmark of the international monetary system and acquired an exorbitant privilege.Subsequently,the total amount of US debt exhibited an exponential expansion trend,unbound by any substantial constraints.The so-called debt ceiling is a partisan game rather than a rigid fiscal constraint on the United States.As long as there are no fundamental changes in the global monetary system,the international credit of US Treasuries will stay stable,and their trend of infinite expansion will be sustained.Massive quantitative easing policies have failed to significantly shake this stability,and the notion of global investors offloading US Treasuries is more an illusion than a fact.The exorbitant privilege of US Treasuries grants its federal government the“freedom to borrow,”shielding the American financial sector from due penalties during global financial crises and securing excessive returns in global capital cycles.In the old days when running“twin surpluses”on capital and current accounts,China kept the value of Renminbi low to support its export manufacturing sector along the southeast coast.As a result,China accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves,mainly US Treasuries.Nowadays,this practice is no longer necessary,yielding low returns and posing significant security risks.

国际货币权力的内涵、分类及国别特征

国际货币权力是国际金融学研究的重要组成部分,文章整理并总结了国内外学者关于国际货币权力研究的理论成果,并从国际货币权力的定义、来源、分类、改革构想以及不同国家的国际货币权力等多个维度对国内外学者的相关研究文献进行系统梳理和评述,指出现有文献的主要贡献和不足,并提出进一步研究的可能方向。

稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化路径探析

2009年以来,人民币国际化经历涨潮—回落—再涨潮周期性过程,并遵循从旧“三位一体”到新“三位一体”,再到新新“三位一体”的演进逻辑,结合国内外经济形势和潜在问题进行调整,取得了积极进展。相对于美元、欧元等国际货币,人民币国际化整体水平仍存在明显差距。在疫情影响、地缘冲突、美元加息等多重冲击的全球新变局下,经济下行与汇率贬值压力、系统性金融风险在一些领域抬头、协同深化改革内生难题待解,以及全球经济金融格局分化冲击、数字货币对货币主权的威胁等,是影响人民币国际化发展的关键因素。要以稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化为发展方向,实施更大力度的财政货币政策,确保我国经济回归潜在增速,有效防范化解系统性金融风险,进一步全面深化改革以破除体制机制障碍,扩大高水平开放以改善外部环境,积极探索双循环格局下人民币国际化发展路径。

制度变迁与权力博弈:国际货币体系的双重困境

在国际秩序变革期,国际货币体系的变迁和安全状况出现新的特征和问题。在体系演进的不同阶段,国际货币体系变革的核心逻辑不同。在运行之初和体系修正时期,制度变迁是核心逻辑,而在霸权护持和体系重构时期,权力政治是核心逻辑。由此,对国际货币体系变迁的解释需要综合考虑权力逻辑和制度逻辑在国际货币体系不同阶段的相互作用和共同影响。从制度逻辑而言,国际货币体系长期存在的诸多问题依然未能得到有效解决,甚至有更加恶化的趋势,主要包括主权货币充当国际货币的困局、全球宏观经济失衡与调整不力、汇率波动与失调持续加剧、全球货币治理组织低效等,国际货币制度变迁的“均衡困境”持续存在。同时,当前国际货币体系已步入霸权护持期,权力博弈和大国竞争更加显著,国际货币体系变革又陷入新困境,即国际货币体系的主导国美国无意或无力修正体系的根本性问题和解决其结构性矛盾,转而运用多种方略维护美元霸权,但这些霸权方略的反噬效应,使国际货币体系变得更加不稳定和不安全。国际货币制度变迁和权力政治博弈逻辑下的新旧困境交叠,维护国际与国家货币安全面临更加严峻的挑战,由此也为相关研究带来一个新的研究议程。

管理层结构对国际组织决策偏好的影响——以国际货币基金组织为例

基于委托代理理论,本文收集国际货币基金组织人力资源数据,分析管理层员工结构对国际货币基金组织贷款决策偏好的影响。研究发现,管理层员工结构会对国际货币基金组织贷款决策偏好产生正向影响。借款国国民在国际货币基金组织担任中层管理人员越多,担任总裁办公室主任和地区部门主任的管理岗位的国民越多,担任执行董事和副执行董事人数越多,在欧洲和西半球地区部门任职管理人员越多,国际货币基金组织贷款决策更偏好于该国。进一步研究发现,当借款国与美国外交立场一致,获得西方发达国家经济援助越多,借款国国民担任管理人员越多,国际货币基金组织贷款决策会更偏好于该国。中国在参与国际金融治理时,常处于劣势地位。本文从人力资源视角提供中国参与国际金融治理的新思路和新路径,以期提升中国在国际金融治理中的话语权。

中小企业货币资金内部控制的问题及对策

随着中国市场经济的深入发展,众多中小企业面临转型升级,解决中小企业货币资金管理问题有助其转型升级。文章在理清货币资金、内部控制等概念的基础上,阐述中小企业货币资金内部控制的必要性和目标,深度剖析中小企业货币资金内部控制存在的问题,并提出应对策略。

不平等国际货币体系下资本偏向流动与中美贸易失衡

中美贸易失衡是影响大国关系和高水平对外开放的关键问题,对其原因的探究具有重要的理论和现实意义。在不平等的国际货币体系下,资本流动过度偏向中心国家,可能导致实体经济的失衡,也会引起中美贸易失衡,而这一结构性因素并未得到充分重视。美元成为国际储备货币后,跨境资本流入使得美国的经常账户和贸易账户保持赤字状态,表现为美国和贸易伙伴的贸易失衡。非关税因素在美国贸易赤字传导中发挥关键作用,尤其是贸易伙伴对美国的资本输出规模越大、全球价值链参与度越高、制造业规模越大,其与美国的贸易失衡规模就越大。如果国际货币体系继续以美元为中心,美国的对外贸易将依然保持逆差,并持续向其贸易伙伴传导,目前这一现象在中美贸易失衡中得到体现,未来也可能在美国和其他经济体的双边贸易中显现。在美国对外贸易平衡与维护美元的国际储备地位难以兼顾的情况下,贸易争端并非解决中美贸易失衡的可行方式。推进人民币国际化并促进中国金融市场高质量发展,能够减少对美元体系的依赖,有助于缩小中美贸易不平衡。

拯救布雷顿森林体系:战后美国推动西欧国际货币合作的困境、妥协与实现

二战后欧洲出现的严重经济困难和“美元荒”问题,成为美国在西欧确立布雷顿森林体系的现实障碍。在冷战爆发的背景下,为拯救布雷顿森林体系,美国在马歇尔计划的制订过程中做出妥协与让步,淡化了经济援助与西欧国际货币合作目标之间的关系。在马歇尔计划实施后,美国通过经济合作署严格控制西欧国家对美元援助的使用,强化了对西欧国家的经济干预能力,并通过建立欧洲支付联盟,逐步主导西欧国际货币合作进程,最终在西欧地区确立了布雷顿森林体系。上述历史过程在一定程度上反映出美元霸权具有协商性的一面。

制造企业货币资金内部控制优化研究

在经济全球化背景下的今天,货币资金作为企业流动资产中的关键部分,如同血液一般贯穿企业的各个营运环节,只有严格监管好货币资金内部控制,企业才能在激烈的市场竞争中稳步发展。对于企业的管理者而言,货币资金的有效内部监督可以很大程度上提高企业的经营效率。文章以制造企业为研究对象,探究分析企业货币资金内部控制存在的问题,并提出完善优化建议,旨在帮助企业解决出现的一些问题,促进企业的健康发展。

Echell Mobil System in IMF： Foreign Currency Exchange

Echell Mobil is to use third variable in currency system. A criterion for becoming Echell Mobil is trade relations. In Echell Mobil system, Echell Mobil countries print and issue dollar banknote and distribute it to partner country. American Fed implemented Quantity Enlargement Policy during the 2008 crises. Fed directly distributes dollars in quantity enlargement. Echell Mobil is similar to Quantity Enlargement Policy. However, it is different from Quantity Enlargement Policy. There is a third variable in Echell Mobil and this third country issues dollar and distributes to partner country. Iceland may become Echell Mobil of European Union and Jordan may become Echell Mobil of Turkey.

Problems and Countermeasures of the Internal Control of Monetary Funds:A Case Study of Foshan Lighting

Monetary fund is the most fundamental element for enterprises to engage in production and lucrative business activities,which has an impact on the operation process and outcomes.Therefore,enterprises must regard fund management as one of their key management links and establish an effective and practical internal control system.However,sensational cases such as the collapse of Barings Bank have exposed many problems existing in the internal control of monetary funds.Moreover,the high liquidity of funds itself engenders them as the target of embezzlement and self-interest,which will eventually threaten the company’s wealth.Therefore,it is significant to analyze the problems existing in the internal control of monetary funds and provide corresponding solutions to them.

Renminbi internationalization lacks micro base

The current global financial crisis's severity is rarely seen once in a century. Due to a lack of liquidity-attracting new industries, the economic adjustment might be prolonged; and the multiplier effects of international finance and international trade call for joint rescue plans on a global basis. China's recent price adjustment has proven a failure and its domestic consumption-stimulating policy is ineffective. Investments and exports remain the growth engine for China's economy. So the country should make efforts to maintain export competitiveness with output adjustment, restoration of interest rate parity and reduction of the tax rate parity. Internationalization of the U.S. dollar-permeated renminbi is not a sensible choice, as the renminbi is not, in essence, an international currency, and it lacks a micro-foundation.

货币政策外生冲击与国际直接投资流动

本文基于企业跨国生产决策行为,通过构建动态一般均衡模型,分析了汇率内生变化条件下货币政策冲击对国际直接投资流动的影响。根据1980—2018年国别面板数据构建的PVAR模型和根据中国数据构建的VAR模型的研究显示:第一,汇率渠道是货币政策影响国际直接投资流动的关键机制,东道国扩张性的货币政策冲击会通过影响其货币对外贬值进而促进国际直接投资流入。第二,汇率制度和资本账户管制是影响货币政策的国际直接投资流动效应的重要因素,固定汇率制度和资本账户管制降低了货币政策对国际直接投资流动的影响。汇率制度作用于货币政策冲击对汇率变动的影响,资本账户管制作用于汇率变动对国际直接投资流动的影响。第三,中国货币政策冲击对国际直接投资流入的影响幅度更大,国际直接投资投入对中国货币政策冲击的反应速度更快且持续时间更长,货币政策变化是解释中国国际直接投资流入变动的重要因素。