Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method

International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.

Bargaining strategy of oil companies in international oil and gas development Projects-Based on a bilateral bargaining model

Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.Foreign oil companies might change their unfavorable negotiating position by changing the order of bidding and adjusting bidding strategies.This paper introduces both factors into a bilateral bargaining model to study the impact of information asymmetry and bidding order on the strategy and equilibrium returns of oil companies.According to the ownership of the right to bid first,two scenarios are designed for the model to compare the equilibrium returns of the host country and oil companies.The results show that:1)There is a first-mover advantage in the process of bilateral bidding,so oil companies better bid first;2)The information asymmetry will lead to a higher nominal income ratio of oil companies and a lower nominal income ratio of the host country,but it doesn’t affect the total income ratio at all.

International Law on Liability and Compensation in the Offshore Oil ＆ Gas Industry

Offshore oil and gas exploration and production comes with risk of release of hydrocarbons in to sea. Today, the probability of such an event is relatively low, but the consequences are nevertheless significant and can cover a vast geographical area. As such, it raises the question as to whether liability and compensation in oil ＆ gas related incidents should be covered under international law. Current international legislation addresses the issue mainly in terms of shipping. This paper attempts to shed light on the topic in relation to oil and gas exploration whilst investigating notable events in the UK and the USA. The findings show that domestic laws of these countries cover the matter sufficiently. However, the question of whether the regulation should fall under international regulation can unfortunately not be answered with confidence as it would require a test-case of a situation where an oil spill affects multiple littoral states.

Analysis of the world deepwater oil and gas exploration situation

The global trends in deepwater oil and gas exploration,characteristics of deepwater oil and gas discovery,and layout of deepwater oil and gas exploration business by seven major international oil companies are systematically analyzed using commercial databases(e.g.S&P Global and Rystad)and public information of oil companies.The deepwater area is currently the most important domain for global oil and gas exploration and discovery,with the most discoveries and reserves in passive continental margin basins.The deepwater discoveries have the greatest contribution to the total newly discovered oil and gas reserves in the sea areas,with an increasing number of lithological reservoirs discovered,and oil and gas discoveries mainly distributed in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic.The seven major international oil companies are widely active in various aspects of deepwater oil and gas exploration and development,and play a leading role.Based on years of theoretical understanding of global oil and gas geology and resource evaluation,it is proposed that favorable deepwater exploration areas in the future will mainly focus on three major areas:the Atlantic coast,the Indian Ocean periphery,and the Arctic Ocean periphery.Six suggestions are put forward for expanding overseas deepwater oil and gas exploration business:first,expand the sources for obtaining multi-user seismic data and improve the scientific selection of deepwater exploration areas;second,increase efforts to obtain deepwater exploration projects in key areas;third,adopt various methods to access into/exit from resource licenses flexibly;fourth,acquire licenses with large equity and operate in“dual-exploration”model;fifth,strengthen cooperation with leading international oil companies in deepwater technology;and sixth,improve business operation capabilities and gradually transform from“non-operators”to“operators”.

Successful International Symposiumon Oil ＆ Gas Exploration in Lacustrine Basin

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Influence of The Belt and Road Initiative on Oil and Gas Infrastructure

China has proposed the ＂Belt and Road Initiative （B＆R）＂ in 2013. One its core strategies is international oil/gas cooperation. This paper addresses the status quo of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇, anticipahs the cooperatiorl prospect. On this basis, the author analyzes China＇s advantages and cooperation basis in this domain, conceives the practical way of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇. This paper also elaborates on tlre potential risks, risk evaluation criteria and risk corr trol in oil/gas infrastructu re cooperation with countries tries along tire line of ＂B＆R＂.

Genesis of reservoir heterogeneity and its impacts on petroleum exploitation in beach-bar sandstone reservoirs:A case study from the Bohai Bay Basin,China

Reservoir characteristics of beach-bar sandstone reservoirs in the 2nd member of the Shahejie Formation in Banqiao Sag are studied by means of well logging interpretation,thin section observation and physical property analysis.Further,the influence of deposition,diagenesis and internal architecture interface on reservoir quality are quantitatively analyzed.On this basis,the geneses of reservoir heterogeneity of beach-bar sandstone reservoirs are summarized.The following results are obtained.(1)Primary pores,secondary pores and micro-fractures are the main types of reservoir space in the study area,and the primary intergranular pore is the main pore type;the microscopic heterogeneity of reservoirs is strong,and the physical properties of beach-bar reservoirs in different regions vary widely.(2)Tectonicdeposition,diagenesis and reservoir internal architecture work in unison to cause the heterogeneity of beach-bar reservoir quality in the 2^(nd) member of the Shahejie Formation in Banqiao Sag;the locations and scales of beach-bar sand bodies are obviously different in different fault blocks in the study area,determining the macroscopic distribution of beach-bar reservoirs;differential diagenesis intensifies the degree of reservoir heterogeneity;the fine-grained argillaceous deposits between different architecture units of beach-bar reservoirs are critical to the quality of reservoirs.(3)The differential distribution of beach-bar reservoir quality parameters in the study area affects the spatial heterogeneity of reservoirs,which not only controls the original oil/gas distribution,but also has a significant influence on the effect of waterflooding and leads to the local enrichment of remaining oil.

Politics of Oil and Natural Gas vis-à-vis the Foreign Policy of Iran

This study discusses the relationship of Iran’s oil and gas resources with its foreign policy.Because these resources play a major role in government power,they serve as a major focus of Iran’s governmental policy and relations with other countries.Our review led us to conclude that despite Iran’s abundant reserves􀃼the world’s fourth-largest crude oil and largest natural gas reserves-international powers influenced the country’s foreign policy sufficiently for Iran to decrease its oil production.The authors will demonstrate how fluctuations in oil and natural gas production were the outcome of a globalized structure that affected instability in Iran’s foreign policy in specific ways.Our conceptual investigation of energy politics after the 1979 revolution revealed different policies that caused numerous concerns for the new government.While Iran’s politicians strove to retain the Islamic Republic above all,both doctrine and foreign policy revolved circuitously from a radical 1979 Revolution position to renewed radical position in 2005 with two intermediate shifts in position.One was pragmatic shift in the late 1980s,and the second took a more moderate tone in late 1990s by focusing almost entirely on the production of oil and natural gas.

Quantitative Analysis of Central Asian Countries' Energy Security and Its Political Influence Factors

Central Asian countries are located in the heartland of the Eurasian Continent.Their geographic location puts their energy flows under tremendous geopolitical pressure from the countries along their limited number of pipelines.With energy trade data from the United Nations Comtrade Statistics Database in the period from 2005 to 2016,this paper evaluates energy security of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan（exporter） and Kyrgyzstan（importer） using three standards：correlativeness,diversity,and the impact of international relations.It concludes that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan＇s oil markets are balanced in terms of correlation and diversification,and thus less subject to geopolitical pressure.Turkmenistan＇s gas markets,on the other hand,still have tremendous exposure to geopolitical risks for lack of diversification.Kyrgyzstan,as an energy importer,could rely on a few neighboring countries for energy supply.We found out that the three Central Asian countries＇ energy security is largely determined by four political factors：the relationship with Russia,the new ＂great game＂ in Eurasia,the rise of China,and Central Asian regional geopolitical configuration.